The impact of offering multiple cervical screening options to women whose screening was overdue in Dumfries and Galloway, Scotland.

Most women who develop cancer have not been screened regularly. One in four women in Scotland, is overdue for cervical screening. Aim was to assess the impact of offering multiple cervical screening options to women whose screening is overdue. A prospective cohort study including all women whose screening was overdue, aged 30-60 years in Dumfries and Galloway in 2012. Potentially eligible women (n = 4146) were identified split into six groups. Women aged 30-55 years were allocated to three different groups. Group 1 (letter, n = 1246), Group 2 (letter and kit, n = 221), Group 3 (letter, n = 2031). Women aged 56-60 years were allocated to: Group 4 (letter, n = 292), Group 5 (letter and kit, n = 292) and Group 6 (control, n = 64). Women who self-collected a vaginal sample were requested to complete a questionnaire. The percentages of women responding were 24 % (21-26), 32 % (25-38), 16 % (14-18), 15 % (11-20) and 12 % (9-17) in groups 1 to 5 respectively, compared with 3 % (0-11) among controls. A significantly higher number of women (n = 383, 10 % of 3815) opted for self-sampling in comparison with undergoing a cervical screening test (CST) at the GP practice (n = 197, 5 %, x2 = 59.0, p < 0.0001). The Evalyn® Brush was well accepted (218/313 = 70 %) by those who requested self-sampling. Almost all (265/272 = 97 %) women who self-collected a vaginal sample said that if they had the option of self-sampling, they would regularly participate in future cervical screening. Offering more flexible screening options, self-sampling in particular, appears to increase cervical screening participation.

Introducing human papillomavirus (HPV) primary testing in the age of HPV vaccination: projected impact on colposcopy services in Wales.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the demand for colposcopy in the Cervical Screening Wales programme after the introduction of human papillomavirus (HPV) cervical screening, which coincided with the start of screening of women vaccinated against HPV types 16/18. DESIGN: The study used a computational model that assigns screening and screening-related colposcopy events to birth cohorts in individual calendar years. SETTING: Cervical Screening Wales. POPULATION: Women aged 25-64 years from birth cohorts 1953-2007. METHODS AND MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: We estimated the numbers of colposcopies and high-grade cervical intraepithelial lesions (CIN2+) within Cervical Screening Wales in 2018-32, using official population projections for Wales and published estimates of the effects of HPV screening and vaccination. RESULTS: Vaccination will reduce the number of colposcopies by 10% within the first 3-4 years after the national roll-out of HPV screening, and by about 20% thereafter. The number of screening colposcopies is estimated to increase from 6100 in 2018 and peak at 8000 (+31%) in 2021, assuming current screening intervals are maintained. The numbers of CIN2+ lesions follow similar patterns, stabilising at around 1000 diagnoses per year by 2026, approximately 60% lower than at present. Extending the screening intervals to 5 years for all women shows similar trends but introduces peaks and troughs over the years. CONCLUSIONS: Vaccination will not fully prevent an increase in colposcopies and detected CIN2+ lesions during the first 2-3 years of HPV-based screening but the numbers are expected to decrease substantially after 5-6 years. TWEETABLE ABSTRACT: HPV-based cervical screening will initially increase colposcopy referral. In 6 years, this increase will be reversed, partly by HPV vaccination.

Development and validation of a haematuria cancer risk score to identify patients at risk of harbouring cancer.

BACKGROUND: A lack of consensus exists amongst national guidelines regarding who should be investigated for haematuria. Type of haematuria and age-specific thresholds are frequently used to guide referral for the investigation of haematuria. OBJECTIVES: To develop and externally validate the haematuria cancer risk score (HCRS) to improve patient selection for the investigation of haematuria. METHODS: Development cohort comprise of 3539 prospectively recruited patients recruited at 40 UK hospitals (DETECT 1; ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT02676180) and validation cohort comprise of 656 Swiss patients. All patients were aged >18 years and referred to hospital for the evaluation of visible and nonvisible haematuria. Sensitivity and specificity of the HCRS in the validation cohort were derived from a cut-off identified from the discovery cohort. RESULTS: Patient age, gender, type of haematuria and smoking history were used to develop the HCRS. HCRS validation achieves good discrimination (AUC 0.835; 95% CI: 0.789-0.880) and calibration (calibration slope = 1.215) with no significant overfitting (P = 0.151). The HCRS detected 11.4% (n = 8) more cancers which would be missed by UK National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence guidelines. The American Urological Association guidelines would identify all cancers with a specificity of 12.6% compared to 30.5% achieved by the HCRS. All patients with upper tract cancers would have been identified. CONCLUSION: The HCRS offers good discriminatory accuracy which is superior to existing guidelines. The simplicity of the model would facilitate adoption and improve patient and physician decision-making.

Exercise training as a novel primary treatment for localised prostate cancer: a multi-site randomised controlled phase II study.

Alternative management strategies for localised prostate cancer are required to reduce morbidity and overtreatment. The aim of this study was to evaluate the feasibility, safety and acceptability of exercise training (ET) with behavioural support as a primary therapy for low/intermediate risk localised prostate cancer. Men with low/intermediate-risk prostate cancer were randomised to 12 months of ET or usual care with physical activity advice (UCwA) in a multi-site open label RCT. Feasibility included acceptability, recruitment, retention, adherence, adverse events and disease progression. Secondary outcomes included quality of life and cardiovascular health indices. Of the 50 men randomised to ET (n = 25) or UCwA (n = 25), 92% (n = 46) completed 12 month assessments. Three men progressed to invasive therapy (two in UCwA). In the ET group, men completed mean: 140 mins per week for 12 months (95% CI 129,152 mins) (94% of target dose) at 75% Hrmax. Men in the ET group demonstrated improved body mass (mean reduction: 2.0 kg; 95% CI -2.9,-1.1), reduced systolic (mean: 13 mmHg; 95%CI 7,19) and diastolic blood pressure (mean:8 mmHg; 95% CI 5,12) and improved quality of life (EQ.5D mean:13 points; 95% CI 7,18). There were no serious adverse events. ET in men with low/intermediate risk prostate cancer is feasible and acceptable with a low progression rate to radical treatment. Early signals on clinically relevant markers were found which warrant further investigation.

Factors related to inter-observer reproducibility of conventional Pap smear cytology: a multilevel analysis of smear and laboratory characteristics.

OBJECTIVE: To identify factors that influence the inter-observer reproducibility of the routine, conventional Pap smear cytology (Pap smear test) in a network of certificated laboratories in a middle-income Latin American country. METHODS: Twenty-six laboratories provided each an average of 26 negative for malignancy (NILM) and high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (HSIL) Pap smears. An external panel reviewed the slides. The kappa index and multilevel logistic regression were used to estimate the reproducibility and odds ratios (OR) of a false result with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI), respectively. Results are presented for laboratories that collect (collector laboratories) and do not collect (non-collector laboratories) samples. RESULTS: The agreements ranged widely (median kappa 0.51, range 0.16-0.70). The overall false-positive (FP) and false-negative (FN) rates were 31% (95% CI 27-35) and 11% (95% CI 7-17). Among collector laboratories (N = 14), a bigger sample collection volume decreased the probability of a FP (OR-adjusted 0.05, 95% CI 0.02-0.1) whereas the number of quality defects (OR-adjusted 1.67, 95% CI 1.25-2.24), high workload (OR-adjusted 5.52, 95% CI 3.85-7.92) and collection by cytotechnologists (OR-adjusted 1.28, 95% CI 1.15-1.42) or health professionals (OR-adjusted 2.26, 95% CI 2.04-2.49) instead of nursing assistants increased it. Among non-collector laboratories (N = 9), the FP rate increased with the number of quality defects (OR-adjusted 1.86, 95% CI 1.06-3.26) but decreased if the samples were collected by health professionals instead of nursing assistants (OR-adjusted 0.37, 95%CI 0.17-0.80). No significant associations were observed for FN. CONCLUSIONS: Staff in charge of cervical sampling significantly determined the reproducibility of the Pap smear test, but this depended on whether the laboratory collects samples or read samples collected elsewhere.

Evaluating cytology for the detection of invasive cervical cancer.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the sensitivity, the number needed to screen (NNS) and the positive predictive value (PPV) of cervical cytology for the diagnosis of cancer by age in a screening population. METHODS: A retrospective cohort of women with invasive cervical cancer nested within a census of cervical cytology. All (c. 8 million) women aged 20-64 years with cervical cytology (excluding tests after an earlier abnormality). From April 2007 to March 2010, 3372 women had cervical cancer diagnosed within 12 months of such cytology in England. The sensitivity of cervical cytology to cancer, NNS to detect one cancer and predictive values of cytology were calculated for various 'referral' thresholds. These were calculated for ages 20-24, 25-34, 35-49 and 50-64 years. RESULTS: The sensitivity of at least moderate dyskaryosis [equivalent to a high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (HSIL) or worse] for cancer of 89.4% [95% confidence interval (CI) 88.3-90.4%] in women offered screening was independent of age. At all ages, women with borderline-early recall or mild dyskaryosis on cytology (equivalent to ASC-US and LSIL, respectively, in the Bethesda system) had a similar risk of cervical cancer to the risk in all women tested. The PPV of severe dyskaryosis/?invasive and ?glandular neoplasia cytology (equivalent to squamous cell carcinoma and adenocarcinoma/adenocarcinoma in situ, respectively, in the Bethesda System) were 34% and 12%, respectively; the PPV of severe dyskaryosis (HSIL: severe dysplasia) was 4%. The NNS was lowest when the incidence of cervical cancer was highest, at ages 25-39 years, but the proportion of those with abnormal cytology who have cancer was also lowest in younger women. CONCLUSIONS: The PPV of at least severe dyskaryosis (HSIL: severe dysplasia) for cancer was 4-10% of women aged 25-64 years, justifying a 2-week referral to colposcopy and demonstrating the importance of failsafe monitoring for such patients. The sensitivity of cytology for cervical cancer was excellent across all age groups.

Time to diagnosis of Type I or II invasive epithelial ovarian cancers: a multicentre observational study using patient questionnaire and primary care records.

OBJECTIVE: To compare time to diagnosis of the typically slow-growing Type I (low-grade serous, low-grade endometrioid, mucinous, clear cell) and the more aggressive Type II (high-grade serous, high-grade endometrioid, undifferentiated, carcinosarcoma) invasive epithelial ovarian cancer (iEOC). DESIGN: Multicentre observational study. SETTING: Ten UK gynaecological oncology centres. POPULATION: Women diagnosed with primary EOC between 2006 and 2008. METHODS: Symptom data were collected before diagnosis using patient questionnaire and primary-care records. We estimated patient interval (first symptom to presentation) using questionnaire data and diagnostic interval (presentation to diagnosis) using primary-care records. We considered the impact of first symptom, referral and stage on intervals for Type I and Type II iEOC. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Patient and diagnostic intervals. RESULTS: In all, 78% of 60 Type I and 21% of 134 Type II iEOC were early-stage. Intervals were comparable and independent of stage [e.g. median patient interval for Type I: early-stage 0.3 months (interquartile range 0.3-3.0) versus late-stage 0.3 months (interquartile range 0.3-4.5), P = 0.8]. Twenty-seven percent of women with Type I and Type II had diagnostic intervals of at least 9 months. First symptom (questionnaire) was also similar, except for the infrequent abnormal bleeding (Type I 15% versus Type II 4%, P = 0.01). More women with Type I disease (57% versus 41%, P = 0.04) had been referred for suspected gynaecological cancer. Median time from referral to diagnosis was 1.4 months for women with iEOC referred via a 2-week cancer referral to any specialty compared with 2.6 months (interquartile range 2.0-3.7) for women who were referred routinely to gynaecology. CONCLUSION: Overall, shorter diagnostic delays were seen when a cancer was suspected, even if the primary tumour site was not recognised to be ovarian. Despite differences in carcinogenesis and stage for Type I and Type II iEOC, time to diagnosis and symptoms were similar. Referral patterns were different, implying subtle symptom differences. If symptom-based interventions are to impact on ovarian cancer survival, it is likely to be through reduced volume rather than stage-shift. Further research on histological subtypes is needed. TWEETABLE ABSTRACT: No difference in time to diagnosis for Type I versus Type II invasive epithelial ovarian cancers.

How many preterm births in England are due to excision of the cervical transformation zone? Nested case control study.

BACKGROUND: Preterm births (as a proportion of all births) have been increasing in many countries. There is growing evidence of increased risk of preterm birth following excisional treatment of the cervix. We estimate the number of preterm births attributable to excisional treatments with a length of 10 mm or more in England. METHODS: Case-control study nested in a record linkage cohort of women with a histological sample at 13 hospitals in England. We combined observed age at first excisional treatment in our cohort with the weighted distribution of excision length from the case-control study to estimate the length distribution by age at first treatment among the cohort. The number of births after excision for each 5-year age group was estimated using national fertility data; published absolute risks of preterm (<37 gestational weeks) and very preterm birth (<32 weeks) were applied to these to estimate the number of preterm births per 100 women treated. Excess preterm births were estimated assuming all treatments were small. The attributable risk of preterm birth following excisional treatment in England was estimated. RESULTS: The majority of first excisional treatments at colposcopy were small (47.5%) or medium (39.1%), 9.5% were large and 4.1% were very large excisions. 4.0% of women treated before birth had more than one excisional treatment. Thus based on our cohort of 10,711 treated women and the length of treatment observed in the case control study we estimate an excess of 240 preterm births (including 57 very preterm) or 2.2 (including 0.5 very preterm) per 100 women treated. At a population level (for England) we estimate that 39,101 women aged 20-39 would be treated each year and that these treatments will lead to an excess of 840 preterm births (including 196 very preterm) in England each year. CONCLUSIONS: Assuming associations between preterm birth and treatment for cervical disease are causal; we estimate that an excess 840 (2.5%) preterm birth in England each year are due to excisional treatments of 10 mm or more. Those that go on to become pregnant should be closely monitored during antenatal period to reduce their risk of preterm birth.

Is the increased risk of preterm birth following excision for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia restricted to the first birth post treatment?

OBJECTIVE: To explore whether the increased risk of preterm birth following treatment for cervical disease is limited to the first birth following colposcopy. DESIGN: Nested case-control study. SETTING: Twelve NHS hospitals in England. POPULATION: All nonmultiple births from women selected as cases or controls from a cohort of women with both colposcopy and a hospital birth. Cases had a preterm (20-36 weeks of gestation) birth. Controls had a term birth (38-42 weeks) and no preterm. METHODS: Obstetric, colposcopy and pathology details were obtained. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Adjusted odds ratio of preterm birth in first and second or subsequent births following treatment for cervical disease. RESULTS: A total of 2798 births (1021 preterm) from 2001 women were included in the analysis. The risk of preterm birth increased with increasing depth of treatment among first births post treatment [trend per category increase in depth, categories <10 mm, 10-14 mm, 15-19 mm, ≥20 mm: odds ratio (OR) 1.23, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.12-1.36, P < 0.001] and among second and subsequent births post treatment (trend OR 1.34, 95% CI 1.15-1.56, P < 0.001). No trend was observed among births before colposcopy (OR 0.98, 95% CI 0.83-1.16, P = 0.855). The absolute risk of a preterm birth following deep treatments (≥15 mm) was 6.5% among births before colposcopy, 18.9% among first births and 17.2% among second and subsequent births post treatment. Risk of preterm birth (once depth was accounted for) did not differ when comparing first births post colposcopy with second and subsequent births post colposcopy (adjusted OR 1.15, 95% CI 0.89-1.49). CONCLUSIONS: The increased risk of preterm birth following treatment for cervical disease is not restricted to the first birth post colposcopy; it remains for second and subsequent births. These results suggest that once a woman has a deep treatment she remains at higher risk of a preterm birth throughout her reproductive life.

Trends in the lifetime risk of developing cancer in Great Britain: comparison of risk for those born from 1930 to 1960.

BACKGROUND: Typically, lifetime risk is calculated by the period method using current risks at different ages. Here, we estimate the probability of being diagnosed with cancer for individuals born in a given year, by estimating future risks as the cohort ages. METHODS: We estimated the lifetime risk of cancer in Britain separately for men and women born in each year from 1930 to 1960. We projected rates of all cancers (excluding non-melanoma skin cancer) and of all cancer deaths forwards using a flexible age-period-cohort model and backwards using age-specific extrapolation. The sensitivity of the estimated lifetime risk to the method of projection was explored. RESULTS: The lifetime risk of cancer increased from 38.5% for men born in 1930 to 53.5% for men born in 1960. For women it increased from 36.7 to 47.5%. Results are robust to different models for projections of cancer rates. CONCLUSIONS: The lifetime risk of cancer for people born since 1960 is >50%. Over half of people who are currently adults under the age of 65 years will be diagnosed with cancer at some point in their lifetime.

A prospective double-blind cross-sectional study of the accuracy of the use of dry vaginal tampons for self-sampling of human papillomaviruses.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate if a dry vaginal tampon can be used to accurately detect high-risk human papillomaviruses (HPV) and so be used as a cervical screening tool for the early detection of high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN2+). DESIGN: Prospective double-blinded cross-sectional study. SETTING: Colposcopy unit in North London. POPULATION: Women referred for colposcopy with both abnormal and normal cervical cytology were invited to participate in this study. METHODS: Women inserted a dry tampon in the vagina before colposcopic examination. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) HPV test was carried out on the dry tampon. Cervical samples were collected by the colposcopist for HPV testing using Hybrid Capture (an HC2 kit). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Detection of CIN2+. RESULTS: In all, 501 women participated in the study. The majority of participants (69%) were in the 25-35-year age group. Overall sensitivity and specificity for detection of CIN2+ by vaginal tampon were 76% (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 65-85) and 61% (95% CI 56-66), respectively, and HC2 had a sensitivity of 92% (95% CI 83-97) with a specificity of only 46% (95% CI 41-51). Sensitivity ratio was 0.83 (95% CI 0.73-0.94) (P = 0.004) and Specificity ratio for CIN2+ was 1.33 (95% CI 1.22-1.45). Indicating that the tampon test was significantly (P < 0.0001) more specific. Sensitivity decreased and specificity improved with increasing age. CONCLUSIONS: Dry tampon test showed reasonably high sensitivity and specificity when detecting CIN2+. The majority of participants (98%) approved of the use of dry tampons as a method of sample collection, which could be an effective alternative method for detecting HPV infection.

Do prostate cancer risk models improve the predictive accuracy of PSA screening? A meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Despite the extensive development of risk prediction models to aid patient decision-making on prostate screening, it is unknown whether these models could improve predictive accuracy of PSA testing to detect prostate cancer (PCa). The objective of this study was to perform a systematic review to identify PCa risk models and to assess the model's performance to predict PCa by conducting a meta-analysis. DESIGN: A systematic literature search of Medline was conducted to identify PCa predictive risk models that used at least two variables, of which one of the variables was prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level. Model performance (discrimination and calibration) was assessed. Prediction models validated in ≥5 study populations and reported area under the curve (AUC) for prediction of any or clinically significant PCa were eligible for meta-analysis. Summary AUC and 95% CIs were calculated using a random-effects model. RESULTS: The systematic review identified 127 unique PCa prediction models; however, only six models met study criteria for meta-analysis for predicting any PCa: Prostataclass, Finne, Karakiewcz, Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial (PCPT), Chun, and the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer Risk Calculator 3 (ERSPC RC3). Summary AUC estimates show that PCPT does not differ from PSA testing (0.66) despite performing better in studies validating both PSA and PCPT. Predictive accuracy to discriminate PCa increases with Finne (AUC = 0.74), Karakiewcz (AUC = 0.74), Chun (AUC = 0.76) and ERSPC RC3 and Prostataclass have the highest discriminative value (AUC = 0.79), which is equivalent to doubling the sensitivity of PSA testing (44% versus 21%) without loss of specificity. The discriminative accuracy of PCPT to detect clinically significant PCa was AUC = 0.71. Calibration measures of the models were poorly reported. CONCLUSIONS: Risk prediction models improve the predictive accuracy of PSA testing to detect PCa. Future developments in the use of PCa risk models should evaluate its clinical effectiveness in practice.