Ocrelizumab Treatment in Patients with Primary Progressive Multiple Sclerosis: Short-term Safety Results from a Compassionate Use Programme in Germany.

OBJECTIVES: In January 2018, the European Union (EU) approved ocrelizumab in relapsing multiple sclerosis (RMS) and as the first disease-modifying therapy (DMT) for patients with primary progressive multiple sclerosis (PPMS) with efficacy proven in a phase 3 randomised controlled trial. Eleven months prior to the European regulatory approval, a compassionate use programme (CUP) made ocrelizumab available to 489 patients with PPMS in Germany, thereby for the first time providing a therapeutic option to patients with PPMS who could not participate in ocrelizumab studies. Here, we report real-world patient characteristics and short-term safety data of patients with PPMS treated with ocrelizumab in this CUP. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This CUP was initiated in February 2017 - shortly before US Food and Drug administration approval in March 2017 - and ended in January 2018, following ocrelizumab approval in the EU. Adult patients (age ≥18 years) with PPMS who had a positive benefit/risk ratio according to the treating physician were eligible for inclusion at German treatment centres. The main exclusion criteria were current/recent treatment with other immune therapies and unresolved/chronic/active infections. Patients received methylprednisolone and an antihistamine before treatment with intravenous ocrelizumab in 6-month cycles. The first ocrelizumab dose was a 300 mg infusion followed by a second 300 mg infusion 2 weeks later; subsequent doses were delivered as a single 600 mg infusion. Adverse events were reported immediately. RESULTS: Of 580 requests received from 104 centres, 525 patients met the eligibility criteria. Thirty-five patients did not participate due to withdrawal by the treating physician, and one due to death prior to treatment. A total of 489 patients received at least one 600 mg dose of ocrelizumab (administered as two 300 mg infusions) and 51 received a second dose. Due to termination of the CUP upon marketing authorisation, the maximum follow-up period was 12 months. Median patient age was 52 years (range: 24-73), and 49% were female. Previous immunomodulatory or immunosuppressive therapies had been received by 41% of patients, with the most commonly used being glucocorticoids, mitoxantrone, interferon-ß and glatiramer acetate. Patients with a previous malignancy, serious disease or infection (42 patients, 9%) had recovered from this prior to the CUP. Nine serious adverse events and 70 non-serious adverse events were reported in 40 patients. Adverse event categories were generally consistent with the known safety profile of ocrelizumab; one patient had carry-over progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML) due to previous natalizumab treatment. CONCLUSION: This CUP provides first real-world observations of ocrelizumab for the treatment of PPMS in a large patient cohort in Germany, supporting that ocrelizumab is generally well-tolerated in clinical practice. Physicians should be vigilant for early symptoms of PML, as to date, 9 PML cases that were all confounded have been reported in patients treated with ocrelizumab worldwide, with 8 carry-over cases from a prior DMT.

Epidemiology and health care utilization of patients suffering from Huntington's disease in Germany: real world evidence based on German claims data.

BACKGROUND: Huntington's disease (HD) is a rare, genetic, neurodegenerative and ultimately fatal disease with no cure or progression-delaying treatment currently available. HD is characterized by a triad of cognitive, behavioural and motor symptoms. Evidence on epidemiology and management of HD is limited, especially for Germany. This study aims to estimate the incidence and prevalence of HD and analyze the current routine care based on German claims data. METHODS: The source of data was a sample of the Institute for Applied Health Research Berlin (InGef) Research Database, comprising data of approximately four million insured persons from approximately 70 German statutory health insurances. The study was conducted in a retrospective cross-sectional design using 2015 and 2016 as a two-year observation period. At least two outpatient or inpatient ICD-10 codes for HD (ICD-10: G10) during the study period were required for case identification. Patients were considered incident if no HD diagnoses in the 4 years prior to the year of case identification were documented. Information on outpatient drug dispensations, medical aids and remedies were considered to describe the current treatment situation of HD patients. RESULTS: A 2-year incidence of 1.8 per 100,000 persons (95%-Confidence interval (CI): 1.4-2.4) and a 2-year period prevalence of 9.3 per 100,000 persons (95%-CI: 8.3-10.4) was observed. The prevalence of HD increased with advancing age, peaking at 60-69 years (16.8 per 100,000 persons; 95%-CI: 13.4-21.0) and decreasing afterwards. The most frequently observed comorbidities and disease-associated symptoms in HD patients were depression (42.9%), dementia (37.7%), urinary incontinence (32.5%), extrapyramidal and movement disorders (30.5%), dysphagia (28.6%) and disorders of the lipoprotein metabolism (28.2%). The most common medications in HD patients were antipsychotics (66.9%), followed by antidepressants (45.1%). Anticonvulsants (16.6%), opioids (14.6%) and hypnotics (9.7%) were observed less frequently. Physical therapy was the most often used medical aid in HD patients (46.4%). Nursing services and speech therapy were used by 27.9 and 22.7% of HD patients, respectively, whereas use of psychotherapy was rare (3.2%). CONCLUSIONS: Based on a representative sample, this study provides new insights into the epidemiology and routine care of HD patients in Germany, and thus, may serve as a starting point for further research.

Investigation of a possible association of potentially inappropriate medication for older adults and frailty in a prospective cohort study from Germany.

OBJECTIVE: potentially inappropriate medications (PIMs) are commonly defined as drugs that should be avoided in older adults because they are considered to have a negative risk-benefit ratio. PIMs are suspected to increase the risk for frailty, but this has yet to be examined. DESIGN: prospective population-based cohort study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: a German cohort of community-dwelling older adults (≥60 years) was followed from October 2008 to September 2016. METHODS: in propensity score-adjusted logistic and Cox regression models, associations between baseline PIM use and prevalent/incident frailty were investigated. Frailty was assessed using the definition by Fried and co-workers, PIM were defined with the 2015 BEERS criteria, the BEERS criteria to avoid in cognitively impaired patients (BEERS dementia PIM), the EU(7)-PIM and the PRISCUS list. RESULTS: of 2,865 participants, 261 were frail at baseline and 423 became frail during follow-up. Only BEERS dementia PIM use was statistically significantly associated with prevalent frailty (odds ratio (95% confidence interval), 1.51 (1.04-2.17)). The strength of the association was comparable for all frailty components. Similarly, in longitudinal analyses, only BEERS dementia PIM use was associated with incident frailty albeit not statistically significant (hazard ratio, 1.19 (0.84-1.68)). CONCLUSIONS: the association of PIM use and frailty seems to be restricted to drug classes, which can induce frailty symptoms (anticholinergics, benzodiazepines, z-substances and antipsychotics). Physicians are advised to perform frailty assessments before and after prescribing these drug classes to older patients and to reconsider treatment decisions in case of negative performance changes.

Longitudinal association between panic disorder and health care costs in older adults.

BACKGROUND: To analyze whether probable panic disorder (PD) is associated with health care costs in older age over time. METHODS: Data regarding individuals aged 65 and over were derived from two waves of the ESTHER cohort study (nt1 = 2,348, nt2 = 2,090). Probable PD was assessed using the panic screening module from the Patient Health Questionnaire. Health care costs were obtained through monetary valuation of self-reported health care use data. Fixed effects regressions analyzed the association between transitions in probable PD status and change in health care costs, while adjusting for potential confounders. RESULTS: On a descriptive level, study participants with a positive PD screening displayed higher three-month health care costs compared to those without (incremental costs: € 259 for t1 , € 1,544 for t2 ). Transitions in probable PD were associated with an approximate increase of 65% in outpatient health care costs (ß = 0.50, p < .05). There was no significant association between probable PD transition and change in any other cost category. CONCLUSIONS: Using longitudinal data, our results highlight the economic consequences of probable PD in older adults. Future research should address whether reducing PD in older adults may reduce the associated economic burden and analyze underlying mechanisms.

Comparative Effectiveness of Non-cisplatin First-line Therapies for Metastatic Urothelial Carcinoma: Phase 2 IMvigor210 Study Versus US Patients Treated in the Veterans Health Administration.

BACKGROUND: First-line treatments for cisplatin-ineligible patients with metastatic urothelial carcinoma (mUC) include carboplatin-based chemotherapy and checkpoint inhibitors such as atezolizumab (anti-PD-L1). OBJECTIVE: To compare overall survival (OS) among patients with mUC treated in the first-line setting with atezolizumab versus carboplatin-based chemotherapies (any carboplatin-based regimens or carboplatin-gemcitabine). DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Cisplatin-ineligible patients with mUC from the phase 2 trial IMvigor210 (ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02951767) treated with atezolizumab and patients from the Veterans Health Administration (VHA) health care system (2006-2017, with IMvigor210 eligibility criteria applied using proxy measurements) treated according to normal clinical practice. INTERVENTIONS: IMvigor210 cohort 1 patients were treated with atezolizumab, and real-world VHA cohorts were treated with carboplatin-based regimens. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Entropy-balance weighting was applied to balance prespecified baseline patient characteristics. OS was analyzed using weighted Kaplan-Meier and Cox methods. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: The median OS was 15.0 mo with atezolizumab (n = 110), 12.1 mo with any carboplatin-based chemotherapy (n = 282), and 8.7 mo with carboplatin-gemcitabine (n = 120). An OS benefit occurred with atezolizumab versus carboplatin-based regimens after 9 mo (hazard ratio [HR] 0.43; p = 0.004) and with atezolizumab versus carboplatin-gemcitabine after 5 mo (HR 0.52; p = 0.005). Study limitations include a predominantly male VHA cohort and ≤24-mo follow-up. Adjustment for confounding, a potential limitation of nonrandomized studies, was limited by the availability of clinical measurements in the VHA data, which allowed for replication of IMvigor210 exclusions in the VHA cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: First-line atezolizumab for cisplatin-ineligible mUC may provide an OS benefit over carboplatin-based treatments after 5-9 mo, depending on the regimen. PATIENT SUMMARY: Many patients with metastatic urothelial carcinoma are ineligible for cisplatin-based chemotherapy. This study compared patients from a clinical trial receiving the immunotherapeutic agent atezolizumab with those in Veterans Health Administration clinical practice receiving carboplatin-based chemotherapy. Atezolizumab provided a survival benefit over chemotherapy after 5-9 mo.

Evidence for underuse and overuse of antidepressants in older adults: Results of a large population-based study.

OBJECTIVES: Depression is common among elderly people. However, diagnosis and adequate treatment is frequently difficult. Research on underuse and overuse of antidepressants in elderly persons is scarce. This study investigates the utilization and appropriateness of pharmacological and psychological depression treatment in a large cohort of community-dwelling adults. METHODS: A subsample of 3117 participants (aged 55-85 y) of the third follow-up (2008-2010) of the large population-based German ESTHER study was included. Depression was assessed using the eight-item Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-8). In the course of a home visit, study doctors collected complete information on medication. Logistic regression analyses were conducted to determine the relationship of depression with both underuse and overuse of antidepressants. The analyses were then adjusted for socioeconomic variables, psychosomatic comorbidities, and motivation to seek help. RESULTS: One hundred sixty-three participants (5.2%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 4.5-6.1) fulfilled the criteria for major depression. Underuse of antidepressants was present in 126 depressed participants (77.3%; 70.1-83.5). Persons who were motivated to seek help, who had an established depression diagnosis, or who were taking more than five different medications had lower odds of underuse. Anxiety was associated with higher odds for underuse. Overuse of antidepressants (prescription without clinical indication) was found in 96 cases (41.7%; 35.3-48.4) of all antidepressant prescriptions. CONCLUSIONS: Depression treatment in older adults is frequently insufficient; it appears to depend on diagnosis as well as the patients' motivation to seek help. Education regarding the diagnosis of depression in the elderly as well as guidelines for appropriate treatment is needed.

The Combined Effect of Cancer and Cardiometabolic Conditions on the Mortality Burden in Older Adults.

BACKGROUND: The number of older people living with cancer and cardiometabolic conditions is increasing, but little is known about how specific combinations of these conditions impact mortality. METHODS: A total of 22,692 participants aged 65 years and older from four international cohorts were followed-up for mortality for an average of 10 years (8,596 deaths). Data were harmonized across cohorts and mutually exclusive groups of disease combinations were created for cancer, myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, and diabetes at baseline. Cox proportional hazards models for all-cause mortality were used to estimate the age- and sex-adjusted hazard ratio and rate advancement period (RAP) (in years). RESULTS: At baseline, 23.6% (n = 5,116) of participants reported having one condition and 4.2% (n = 955) had two or more conditions. Data from all studies combined showed that the RAP increased with each additional condition. Diabetes advanced the rate of dying by the most years (5.26 years; 95% confidence interval [CI], 4.53-6.00), but the effect of any single condition was smaller than the effect of disease combinations. Some combinations had a significantly greater impact on the period by which the rate of death was advanced than others with the same number of conditions, for example, 10.9 years (95% CI, 9.4-12.6) for MI and diabetes versus 6.4 years (95% CI, 4.3-8.5) for cancer and diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: Combinations of cancer and cardiometabolic conditions accelerate mortality rates in older adults differently. Although most studies investigating mortality associated with multimorbidity used disease counts, these provide little guidance for managing complex patients as they age.

A short intervention targeting psychosomatic care in older adults with complex health care needs-results of a randomized controlled trial.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this randomized controlled trial (RCT) was to assess the efficacy of a short intervention targeting psychosomatic care in older adults with complex health care needs. METHODS: Participants were recruited in the frame of the 11-year follow-up of a large population-based study by means of the INTERMED interview. The INTERMED interview is an integrative assessment method to identify bio-psycho-social health care needs. Persons with high health care needs (interview score ≥ 17) were invited to take part. Participants were randomized with a 1:1 ratio to a control and an intervention group. The intervention group received a home visit conducted by a doctor trained in psychosomatic medicine. The primary hypothesis stated that the intervention group would have a better outcome with respect to health related quality of life (HRQOL) measured by the 12-item short-form health survey (mental component score, MCS) 6 months after randomization (T1). Secondary outcomes were physical HRQOL, health care needs, depression, anxiety, and somatic symptom severity. RESULTS: In total, 175 participants were included. At the three-year follow-up (T2), 97 participants (55.4%) were included. At T1, we did not find a difference regarding MCS between the intervention and control groups. At T2, the intervention group showed significantly lower health care needs compared with the control group. Regarding HRQOL, depression, and somatic symptom severity the two groups did not differ at T2. CONCLUSIONS: The primary hypothesis was not confirmed. However, results indicate that a short intervention with complex patients could lead to reduced bio-psycho-social health care needs.

Alcohol consumption and lung cancer risk: A pooled analysis from the International Lung Cancer Consortium and the SYNERGY study.

BACKGROUND: There is inadequate evidence to determine whether there is an effect of alcohol consumption on lung cancer risk. We conducted a pooled analysis of data from the International Lung Cancer Consortium and the SYNERGY study to investigate this possible association by type of beverage with adjustment for other potential confounders. METHODS: Twenty one case-control studies and one cohort study with alcohol-intake data obtained from questionnaires were included in this pooled analysis (19,149 cases and 362,340 controls). Adjusted odds ratios (OR) or hazard ratios (HR) with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated for each measure of alcohol consumption. Effect estimates were combined using random or fixed-effects models where appropriate. Associations were examined for overall lung cancer and by histological type. RESULTS: We observed an inverse association between overall risk of lung cancer and consumption of alcoholic beverages compared to non-drinkers, but the association was not monotonic. The lowest risk was observed for persons who consumed 10-19.9 g/day ethanol (OR vs. non-drinkers = 0.78; 95% CI: 0.67, 0.91), where 1 drink is approximately 12-15 g. This J-shaped association was most prominent for squamous cell carcinoma (SCC). The association with all lung cancer varied little by type of alcoholic beverage, but there were notable differences for SCC. We observed an association with beer intake (OR for ≥20 g/day vs nondrinker = 1.42; 95% CI: 1.06, 1.90). CONCLUSIONS: Whether the non-monotonic associations we observed or the positive association between beer drinking and squamous cell carcinoma reflect real effects await future analyses and insights about possible biological mechanisms.

Association of serum markers of oxidative stress with myocardial infarction and stroke: pooled results from four large European cohort studies.

Oxidative stress contributes to endothelial dysfunction and is involved in the pathogenesis of myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke. However, associations of biomarkers of oxidative stress with MI and stroke have not yet been addressed in large cohort studies. A nested case-control design was applied in four population-based cohort studies from Germany, Czech Republic, Poland and Lithuania. Derivatives of reactive oxygen metabolites (d-ROMs) levels, as a proxy for the reactive oxygen species burden, and total thiol levels (TTL), as a proxy for the reductive capacity, were measured in baseline serum samples of 476 incident MI cases and 454 incident stroke cases as well as five controls per case individually matched by study center, age and sex. Statistical analyses were conducted with multi-variable adjusted conditional logistic regression models. d-ROMs levels were associated with both MI (odds ratio (OR), 1.21 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.05-1.40] for 100 Carr units increase) and stroke (OR, 1.17 [95% CI 1.01-1.35] for 100 Carr units increase). TTL were only associated with stroke incidence (OR, 0.79 [95% CI 0.63-0.99] for quartiles 2-4 vs. quartile 1). The observed relationships were stronger with fatal than with non-fatal endpoints; association of TTL with fatal MI was statistically significant (OR, 0.69 [95% CI 0.51-0.93] for 100 µmol/L-increase). This pooled analysis of four large population-based cohorts suggests an important contribution of an imbalanced redox system to the etiology of mainly fatal MI and stroke events.

Genetic determinants of telomere length and risk of pancreatic cancer: A PANDoRA study.

Telomere deregulation is a hallmark of cancer. Telomere length measured in lymphocytes (LTL) has been shown to be a risk marker for several cancers. For pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) consensus is lacking whether risk is associated with long or short telomeres. Mendelian randomization approaches have shown that a score built from SNPs associated with LTL could be used as a robust risk marker. We explored this approach in a large scale study within the PANcreatic Disease ReseArch (PANDoRA) consortium. We analyzed 10 SNPs (ZNF676-rs409627, TERT-rs2736100, CTC1-rs3027234, DHX35-rs6028466, PXK-rs6772228, NAF1-rs7675998, ZNF208-rs8105767, OBFC1-rs9420907, ACYP2-rs11125529 and TERC-rs10936599) alone and combined in a LTL genetic score ("teloscore", which explains 2.2% of the telomere variability) in relation to PDAC risk in 2,374 cases and 4,326 controls. We identified several associations with PDAC risk, among which the strongest were with the TERT-rs2736100 SNP (OR = 1.54; 95%CI 1.35-1.76; p = 1.54 × 10-10 ) and a novel one with the NAF1-rs7675998 SNP (OR = 0.80; 95%CI 0.73-0.88; p = 1.87 × 10-6 , ptrend = 3.27 × 10-7 ). The association of short LTL, measured by the teloscore, with PDAC risk reached genome-wide significance (p = 2.98 × 10-9 for highest vs. lowest quintile; p = 1.82 × 10-10 as a continuous variable). In conclusion, we present a novel genome-wide candidate SNP for PDAC risk (TERT-rs2736100), a completely new signal (NAF1-rs7675998) approaching genome-wide significance and we report a strong association between the teloscore and risk of pancreatic cancer, suggesting that telomeres are a potential risk factor for pancreatic cancer.

E-cadherin breast tumor expression, risk factors and survival: Pooled analysis of 5,933 cases from 12 studies in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium.

E-cadherin (CDH1) is a putative tumor suppressor gene implicated in breast carcinogenesis. Yet, whether risk factors or survival differ by E-cadherin tumor expression is unclear. We evaluated E-cadherin tumor immunohistochemistry expression using tissue microarrays of 5,933 female invasive breast cancers from 12 studies from the Breast Cancer Consortium. H-scores were calculated and case-case odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using logistic regression. Survival analyses were performed using Cox regression models. All analyses were stratified by estrogen receptor (ER) status and histologic subtype. E-cadherin low cases (N = 1191, 20%) were more frequently of lobular histology, low grade, >2 cm, and HER2-negative. Loss of E-cadherin expression (score < 100) was associated with menopausal hormone use among ER-positive tumors (ever compared to never users, OR = 1.24, 95% CI = 0.97-1.59), which was stronger when we evaluated complete loss of E-cadherin (i.e. H-score = 0), OR = 1.57, 95% CI = 1.06-2.33. Breast cancer specific mortality was unrelated to E-cadherin expression in multivariable models. E-cadherin low expression is associated with lobular histology, tumor characteristics and menopausal hormone use, with no evidence of an association with breast cancer specific survival. These data support loss of E-cadherin expression as an important marker of tumor subtypes.

Amyloid blood biomarker detects Alzheimer's disease.

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is currently incurable, but there is general agreement that a minimally invasive blood biomarker for screening in preclinical stages would be crucial for future therapy. Diagnostic tools for detection of AD are either invasive like cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers or expensive such as positron emission tomography (PET) scanning. Here, we determine the secondary structure change of amyloid-ß (Aß) in human blood. This change used as blood amyloid biomarker indicates prodromal AD and correlates with CSF AD biomarkers and amyloid PET imaging in the cross-sectional BioFINDER cohort. In a further population-based longitudinal cohort (ESTHER), the blood biomarker detected AD several years before clinical diagnosis in baseline samples with a positive likelihood ratio of 7.9; that is, those who were diagnosed with AD over the years were 7.9 times more likely to test positive. This assay may open avenues for blood screening of early AD stages as a funnel for further more invasive and expensive tests.

Methylomic survival predictors, frailty, and mortality.

Survival predictors are of potential use for informing on biological age and targeting prevention of aging-related morbidity. We assessed associations of 2 novel methylomic survival indicators, a methylation-based mortality risk score (MRscore) and the epigenetic clock-derived age acceleration (AA), with a well-known survival predictor, frailty index (FI), and compared the 3 indicators in mortality prediction. In a large population-based cohort with 14-year follow-up, we found both MRscore and AA to be independently associated with FI, but the association was much stronger for MRscore than for AA. Although all 3 indicators were individually associated with all-cause mortality, robust associations only persisted for MRscore and FI when simultaneously including the 3 indicators in regression models, with hazard ratios (95% CI) of 1.91 (1.63-2.22), 1.37 (1.25-1.51), and 1.05 (0.90-1.22), respectively, per standard deviation increase of MRscore, FI, and AA. Prediction error curves, Harrell's C-statistics, and time-dependent AUCs all showed higher predictive accuracy for MRscore than for FI and AA. These findings were validated in independent samples. Our study demonstrates the ability of the MRscore to strongly enhance survival prediction beyond established markers of biological age, such as FI and AA, and it thus bears potential of a surrogate endpoint for clinical research and intervention.

Polygenic hazard score to guide screening for aggressive prostate cancer: development and validation in large scale cohorts.

OBJECTIVES: To develop and validate a genetic tool to predict age of onset of aggressive prostate cancer (PCa) and to guide decisions of who to screen and at what age. DESIGN: Analysis of genotype, PCa status, and age to select single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with diagnosis. These polymorphisms were incorporated into a survival analysis to estimate their effects on age at diagnosis of aggressive PCa (that is, not eligible for surveillance according to National Comprehensive Cancer Network guidelines; any of Gleason score ≥7, stage T3-T4, PSA (prostate specific antigen) concentration ≥10 ng/L, nodal metastasis, distant metastasis). The resulting polygenic hazard score is an assessment of individual genetic risk. The final model was applied to an independent dataset containing genotype and PSA screening data. The hazard score was calculated for these men to test prediction of survival free from PCa. SETTING: Multiple institutions that were members of international PRACTICAL consortium. PARTICIPANTS: All consortium participants of European ancestry with known age, PCa status, and quality assured custom (iCOGS) array genotype data. The development dataset comprised 31 747 men; the validation dataset comprised 6411 men. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Prediction with hazard score of age of onset of aggressive cancer in validation set. RESULTS: In the independent validation set, the hazard score calculated from 54 single nucleotide polymorphisms was a highly significant predictor of age at diagnosis of aggressive cancer (z=11.2, P<10-16). When men in the validation set with high scores (>98th centile) were compared with those with average scores (30th-70th centile), the hazard ratio for aggressive cancer was 2.9 (95% confidence interval 2.4 to 3.4). Inclusion of family history in a combined model did not improve prediction of onset of aggressive PCa (P=0.59), and polygenic hazard score performance remained high when family history was accounted for. Additionally, the positive predictive value of PSA screening for aggressive PCa was increased with increasing polygenic hazard score. CONCLUSIONS: Polygenic hazard scores can be used for personalised genetic risk estimates that can predict for age at onset of aggressive PCa.

Frailty and healthcare costs-longitudinal results of a prospective cohort study.

Objective: to investigate how frailty and frailty symptoms affect healthcare costs in older age longitudinally. Methods: data were gathered from a prospective cohort study in Saarland, Germany (two waves with 3-year interval, n = 1,636 aged 57-84 years at baseline). Frailty was assessed by the five Fried frailty criteria. Frailty was defined as having at least three criteria, the presence of 1-2 criteria as 'pre-frail'. Healthcare costs were quantified based on self-reported healthcare use in the sectors of inpatient treatment, outpatient treatment, professional nursing care and informal care as well as the provision of pharmaceuticals, medical supplies and dental prostheses. Results: while the onset of pre-frailty did not increase (log) total healthcare costs after adjusting for potential confounders including comorbidity, progression from non-frailty to frailty was associated with an increase in total healthcare costs (for example, costs increased by ~54 and 101% if 3 and 4 or 5 symptoms were present, respectively). This association of frailty onset with increased healthcare costs was in particular observed in the inpatient sector and for informal nursing care. Among the frailty symptoms, the onset of exhaustion was associated with an increase in total healthcare costs, whereas changes in slowness, weakness, weight loss and low-physical activity were not significantly associated with an increase in total healthcare costs. Conclusions: our data stress the economic relevance of frailty in late life. Postponing or reducing frailty might be fruitful in order to reduce healthcare costs.

Burden of hip fracture using disability-adjusted life-years: a pooled analysis of prospective cohorts in the CHANCES consortium.

BACKGROUND: No studies have estimated disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) lost due to hip fractures using real-life follow-up cohort data. We aimed to quantify the burden of disease due to incident hip fracture using DALYs in prospective cohorts in the CHANCES consortium, and to calculate population attributable fractions based on DALYs for specific risk factors. METHODS: We used data from six cohorts of participants aged 50 years or older at recruitment to calculate DALYs. We applied disability weights proposed by the National Osteoporosis Foundation and did a series of sensitivity analyses to examine the robustness of DALY estimates. We calculated population attributable fractions for smoking, body-mass index (BMI), physical activity, alcohol intake, type 2 diabetes and parity, use of hormone replacement therapy, and oral contraceptives in women. We calculated summary risk estimates across cohorts with pooled analysis and random-effects meta-analysis methods. FINDINGS: 223 880 men and women were followed up for a mean of 13 years (SD 6). 7724 (3·5%) participants developed an incident hip fracture, of whom 413 (5·3%) died as a result. 5964 DALYs (27 per 1000 individuals) were lost due to hip fractures, 1230 (20·6%) of which were in the group aged 75-79 years. 4150 (69·6%) DALYs were attributed to disability. Current smoking was the risk factor responsible for the greatest hip fracture burden (7·5%, 95% CI 5·2-9·7) followed by physical inactivity (5·5%, 2·1-8·5), history of diabetes (2·8%, 2·1-4·0), and low to average BMI (2·0%, 1·4-2·7), whereas low alcohol consumption (0·01-2·5 g per day) and high BMI had a protective effect. INTERPRETATION: Hip fracture can lead to a substantial loss of healthy life-years in elderly people. National public health policies should be strengthened to reduce hip fracture incidence and mortality. Primary prevention measures should be strengthened to prevent falls, and reduce smoking and a sedentary lifestyle. FUNDING: European Community's Seventh Framework Programme.

Vitamin D and cognitive function: A Mendelian randomisation study.

The causal nature of the association between hypovitaminosis D and poor cognitive function in mid- to later-life is uncertain. Using a Mendelian randomisation(MR) approach, we examined the causal relationship between 25(OH)D and cognitive function. Data came from 172,349 participants from 17 cohorts. DHCR7(rs12785878), CYP2R1 rs12794714) and their combined synthesis score were chosen to proxy 25(OH)D. Cognitive tests were standardised into global and memory scores. Analyses were stratified by 25(OH)D tertiles, sex and age. Random effects meta-analyses assessed associations between 25(OH)D and cognitive function. Associations of serum 25(OH)D with global and memory-related cognitive function were non-linear (lower cognitive scores for both low and high 25(OH)D, p curvature ≤ 0.006), with much of the curvature attributed to a single study. DHCR7, CYP2R1, and the synthesis score were associated with small reductions in 25(OH)D per vitamin D-decreasing allele. However, coefficients for associations with global or memory-related cognitive function were non-significant and in opposing directions for DHCR7 and CYP2R1, with no overall association observed for the synthesis score. Coefficients for the synthesis score and global and memory cognition were similar when stratified by 25(OH)D tertiles, sex and age. We found no evidence for serum 25(OH)D concentration as a causal factor for cognitive performance in mid- to later life.

Self-rated health and all-cause and cause-specific mortality of older adults: Individual data meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies in the CHANCES Consortium.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate, among the elderly, the association of self-rated health (SRH) with mortality, and to identify determinants of self-rating health as "at-least-good". STUDY DESIGN: Individual data on SRH and important covariates were obtained for 424,791 European and United States residents, ≥60 years at recruitment (1982-2008), in eight prospective studies in the Consortium on Health and Ageing: Network of Cohorts in Europe and the United States (CHANCES). In each study, adjusted mortality ratios (hazard ratios, HRs) in relation to SRH were calculated and subsequently combined with random-effect meta-analyses. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: All-cause, cardiovascular and cancer mortality. RESULTS: Within the median 12.5 years of follow-up, 93,014 (22%) deaths occurred. SRH "fair" or "poor" vs. "at-least-good" was associated with increased mortality: HRs 1.46 (95% CI 1·23-1.74) and 2.31 (1.79-2.99), respectively. These associations were evident: for cardiovascular and, to a lesser extent, cancer mortality, and within-study, within-subgroup analyses. Accounting for lifestyle, sociodemographic, somatometric factors and, subsequently, for medical history explained only a modest amount of the unadjusted associations. Factors favourably associated with SRH were: sex (males), age (younger-old), education (high), marital status (married/cohabiting), physical activity (active), body mass index (non-obese), alcohol consumption (low to moderate) and previous morbidity (absence). CONCLUSION: SRH provides a quick and simple tool for assessing health and identifying groups of elders at risk of early mortality that may be useful also in clinical settings. Modifying determinants of favourably rating health, e.g. by increasing physical activity and/or by eliminating obesity, may be important for older adults to "feel healthy" and "be healthy".

Vitamin D Supplementation Trials Aimed at Reducing Mortality Have Much Higher Power When Focusing on People with Low Serum 25-Hydroxyvitamin D Concentrations.

Background: Evidence of an inverse association between serum vitamin D and mortality from epidemiological studies has prompted efforts to reduce mortality by vitamin D supplementation, either in targeted interventions for people with vitamin D insufficiency or deficiency, or in untargeted interventions regardless of baseline vitamin D status.Objective: We aimed to assess the expected impact of the 2 different approaches on effect sizes and power of intervention studies.Methods: Serum concentrations of 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] were measured in 9579 participants aged 50-75 y in the German Epidemiologische Studie zu Chancen der Verhütung, Früherkennung und optimierten Therapie chronischer Erkrankungen in der älteren Bevölkerung (ESTHER) study who were followed for mortality for a median of 12.4 y. We estimated adjusted HRs of mortality from all causes, cardiovascular disease, and cancer for defined increases in serum 25(OH)D by Cox regression, both across the full range of 25(OH)D concentrations and for those with vitamin D insufficiency [30 nmol/L ≤ 25(OH)D < 50 nmol/L] or deficiency [25(OH)D <30 nmol/L] only, and we calculated the power of intervention studies achieving those effect sizes.Results: An inverse association between serum 25(OH)D and mortality was observed only for participants with vitamin D insufficiency or deficiency and was strongest for the latter. Accordingly, the expected effects were much stronger and the expected power was much higher for interventions that targeted these groups than for untargeted interventions. For example, a targeted intervention study with 10,000 older adults (age 50-75 y) with serum 25(OH)D <50 nmol/L that increases serum 25(OH)D concentrations by 20 nmol/L in the intervention group (n = 5000) would be expected to yield a 26% reduction of all-cause mortality that could be detected with 89% power within 5 y of follow-up compared with a 10% mortality reduction and 20% power in an untargeted intervention study of the same size.Conclusions: Vitamin D supplementation trials aimed at reducing mortality in older adults have much higher power when focused on those with low serum 25(OH)D concentrations.