Machine learning predicts conventional imaging metastasis-free survival (MFS) for oligometastatic castration-sensitive prostate cancer (omCSPC) using prostate-specific membrane antigen (PSMA) PET radiomics.

PURPOSE: This study investigated imaging biomarkers derived from PSMA-PET acquired pre- and post-metastasis-directed therapy (MDT) to predict 2-year metastasis-free survival (MFS), which provides valuable early response assessment to improve patient outcomes. MATERIALS/METHODS: An international cohort of 117 oligometastatic castration-sensitive prostate cancer (omCSPC) patients, comprising 34 from John Hopkins Hospital (JHH) and 83 from Baskent University (BU), were treated with stereotactic ablative radiation therapy (SABR) MDT with both pre- and post-MDT PSMA-PET/CT scans acquired. PET radiomic features were analyzed from a CT-PET fusion defined gross tumor volume ((GTV) or zone 1), and a 5 mm expansion ring area outside the GTV (zone 2). A total of 1748 PET radiomic features were extracted from these zones. The six most significant features selected using the Chi2 method, along with five clinical parameters (age, Gleason score, number of total lesions, untreated lesions, and pre-MDT prostate-specific antigen (PSA)) were extracted as inputs to the models. Various machine learning models, including Random Forest, Decision Tree, Support Vector Machine, and Naïve Bayesian, were employed for 2-year MFS prediction and tested using leave-one-out and cross-institution validation. RESULTS: Six radiomic features, including Total Energy, Entropy, and Standard Deviation from pre-PSMA-PET zone 1, Total Energy and Contrast from post-PSMA-PET zone 1, and Entropy from pre-PSMA-PET zone 2, along with five clinical parameters were selected for predicting 2-year MFS. In a leave-one-out test with all the patients, random forest achieved an accuracy of 80 % and an AUC of 0.82 in predicting 2-year MFS. In cross-institution validation, the model correctly predicted 2-year MFS events with an accuracy of 75 % and an AUC of 0.77 for patients from JHH, and an accuracy of 78 % and an AUC of 0.80 for BU patients, respectively. CONCLUSION: Our study demonstrated the promise of using pre- and post-MDT PSMA-PET-based imaging biomarkers for MFS prediction for omCSPC patients.

Explaining the Sharp Decline in Birth Rates in Canada and the USA in 2020.

Birth rates in Canada and the USA declined sharply in March 2020 and deviated from historical trends. This decline was absent in similarly developed European countries. We argue that the selective decline was driven by incoming individuals, who would have travelled from abroad and given birth in Canada and the USA, had there been no travel restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic. Furthermore, by leveraging data from periods before and during the COVID-19 travel restrictions, we quantified the extent of births by incoming individuals. In an interrupted time series analysis, the expected number of such births in Canada was 970 per month (95% CI: 710-1,200), which is 3.2% of all births in the country. The corresponding estimate for the USA was 6,700 per month (95% CI: 3,400-10,000), which is 2.2% of all births. A secondary difference-in-differences analysis gave similar estimates at 2.8% and 3.4% for Canada and the USA, respectively. Our study reveals the extent of births by recent international arrivals, which hitherto has been unknown and infeasible to study.

Genomic Determinants Associated with Modes of Progression and Patterns of Failure in Metachronous Oligometastatic Castration-sensitive Prostate Cancer.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Oligometastatic castration-sensitive prostate cancer (omCSPC) represents an early state in the progression of metastatic disease for which patients experience better outcomes in comparison to those with higher disease burden. Despite the generally more indolent nature, there is still much heterogeneity, with some patients experiencing a more aggressive clinical course unexplained by clinical features alone. Our aim was to investigate correlation of tumor genomics with the mode of progression (MOP) and pattern of failure (POF) following first treatment (metastasis-directed and/or systemic therapy) for omCSPC. METHODS: We performed an international multi-institutional retrospective study of men treated for metachronous omCSPC who underwent tumor next-generation sequencing with at least 1 yr of follow-up after their first treatment. Descriptive MOP and POF results are reported with respect to the presence of genomic alterations in pathways of interest. MOP was defined as class I, long-term control (LTC; no radiographic progression at last follow-up), class II, oligoprogression (1-3 lesions), or class III, polyprogression (≥4 lesions). POF included the location of lesions at first failure. Genomic pathways of interest included TP53, ATM, RB1, BRCA1/2, SPOP, and WNT (APC, CTNNB1, RNF43). Genomic associations with MOP/POF were compared using χ2 tests. Exploratory analyses revealed that the COSMIC mutational signature and differential gene expression were also correlated with MOP/POF. Overall survival (OS) was calculated via the Kaplan-Meier method from the time of first failure. KEY FINDINGS AND CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS: We included 267 patients in our analysis; the majority had either one (47%) or two (30%) metastatic lesions at oligometastasis. The 3-yr OS rate was significantly associated with MOP (71% for polyprogression vs 91% for oligoprogression; p = 0.005). TP53 mutation was associated with a significantly lower LTC rate (27.6% vs 42.3%; p = 0.04) and RB1 mutation was associated with a high rate of polyprogression (50% vs 19.9%; p = 0.022). Regarding POF, bone failure was significantly more common with tumors harboring TP53 mutations (44.8% vs25.9%; p = 0.005) and less common with SPOP mutations (7.1% vs 31.4%; p = 0.007). Visceral failure was more common with tumors harboring either WNT pathway mutations (17.2% vs 6.8%, p = 0.05) or SPOP mutations (17.9% vs 6.3%; p = 0.04). Finally, visceral and bone failures were associated with distinct gene-expression profiles. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS: Tumor genomics provides novel insight into MOP and POF following treatment for metachronous omCSPC. Patients with TP53 and RB1 mutations have a higher likelihood of progression, and TP53, SPOP, and WNT pathway mutations may have a role in metastatic organotropism. PATIENT SUMMARY: We evaluated cancer progression after a first treatment for metastatic prostate cancer with up to five metastases. We found that mutations in certain genes were associated with the location and extent of further metastasis in these patients.

A high-throughput focused collimator for OAR-sparing preclinical proton FLASH studies: commissioning and validation.

Objective. To fabricate and validate a novel focused collimator designed to spare normal tissue in a murine hemithoracic irradiation model using 250 MeV protons delivered at ultra-high dose rates (UHDRs) for preclinical FLASH radiation therapy (FLASH-RT) studies.Approach. A brass collimator was developed to shape 250 MeV UHDR protons from our Varian ProBeam. Six 13 mm apertures, of equivalent size to kV x-ray fields historically used to perform hemithorax irradiations, were precisely machined to match beam divergence, allowing concurrent hemithoracic irradiation of six mice while sparing the contralateral lung and abdominal organs. The collimated field profiles were characterized by film dosimetry, and a radiation survey of neutron activation was performed to ensure the safety of staff positioning animals.Main results. The brass collimator produced 1.2 mm penumbrae radiation fields comparable to kV x-rays used in preclinical studies. The penumbrae in the six apertures are similar, with full-width half-maxima of 13.3 mm and 13.5 mm for the central and peripheral apertures, respectively. The collimator delivered a similar dose at an average rate of 52 Gy s-1for all apertures. While neutron activation produces a high (0.2 mSv h-1) initial ambient equivalent dose rate, a parallel work-flow in which imaging and setup are performed without the collimator ensures safety to staff.Significance. Scanned protons have the greatest potential for future translation of FLASH-RT in clinical treatments due to their ability to treat deep-seated tumors with high conformality. However, the Gaussian distribution of dose in proton spots produces wider lateral penumbrae compared to other modalities. This presents a challenge in small animal pre-clinical studies, where millimeter-scale penumbrae are required to precisely target the intended volume. Offering high-throughput irradiation of mice with sharp penumbrae, our novel collimator-based platform serves as an important benchmark for enabling large-scale, cost-effective radiobiological studies of the FLASH effect in murine models.

Integrating local and distant radiation-induced lung injury: Development and validation of a predictive model for ventilation loss.

BACKGROUND: Investigations on radiation-induced lung injury (RILI) have predominantly focused on local effects, primarily those associated with radiation damage to lung parenchyma. However, recent studies from our group and others have revealed that radiation-induced damage to branching serial structures such as airways and vessels may also have a substantial impact on post-radiotherapy (RT) lung function. Furthermore, recent results from multiple functional lung avoidance RT trials, although promising, have demonstrated only modest toxicity reduction, likely because they were primarily focused on dose avoidance to lung parenchyma. These observations emphasize the critical need for predictive dose-response models that effectively incorporate both local and distant RILI effects. PURPOSE: We develop and validate a predictive model for ventilation loss after lung RT. This model, referred to as P+A, integrates local (parenchyma [P]) and distant (central and peripheral airways [A]) radiation-induced damage, modeling partial (narrowing) and complete (collapse) obstruction of airways. METHODS: In an IRB-approved prospective study, pre-RT breath-hold CTs (BHCTs) and pre- and one-year post-RT 4DCTs were acquired from lung cancer patients treated with definitive RT. Up to 13 generations of airways were automatically segmented on the BHCTs using a research virtual bronchoscopy software. Ventilation maps derived from the 4DCT scans were utilized to quantify pre- and post-RT ventilation, serving, respectively, as input data and reference standard (RS) in model validation. To predict ventilation loss solely due to parenchymal damage (referred to as P model), we used a normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) model. Our model used this NTCP-based estimate and predicted additional loss due radiation-induced partial or complete occlusion of individual airways, applying fluid dynamics principles and a refined version of our previously developed airway radiosensitivity model. Predictions of post-RT ventilation were estimated in the sublobar volumes (SLVs) connected to the terminal airways. To validate the model, we conducted a k-fold cross-validation. Model parameters were optimized as the values that provided the lowest root mean square error (RMSE) between predicted post-RT ventilation and the RS for all SLVs in the training data. The performance of the P+A and the P models was evaluated by comparing their respective post-RT ventilation values with the RS predictions. Additional evaluation using various receiver operating characteristic (ROC) metrics was also performed. RESULTS: We extracted a dataset of 560 SLVs from four enrolled patients. Our results demonstrated that the P+A model consistently outperformed the P model, exhibiting RMSEs that were nearly half as low across all patients (13 ± 3 percentile for the P+A model vs. 24 ± 3 percentile for the P model on average). Notably, the P+A model aligned closely with the RS in ventilation loss distributions per lobe, particularly in regions exposed to doses ≥13.5 Gy. The ROC analysis further supported the superior performance of the P+A model compared to the P model in sensitivity (0.98 vs. 0.07), accuracy (0.87 vs. 0.25), and balanced predictions. CONCLUSIONS: These early findings indicate that airway damage is a crucial factor in RILI that should be included in dose-response modeling to enhance predictions of post-RT lung function.

Technical note: A small animal irradiation platform for investigating the dependence of the FLASH effect on electron beam parameters.

BACKGROUND: The recent rediscovery of the FLASH effect, a normal tissue sparing phenomenon observed in ultra-high dose rate (UHDR) irradiations, has instigated a surge of research endeavors aiming to close the gap between experimental observation and clinical treatment. However, the dependences of the FLASH effect and its underpinning mechanisms on beam parameters are not well known, and large-scale in vivo studies using murine models of human cancer are needed for these investigations. PURPOSE: To commission a high-throughput, variable dose rate platform providing uniform electron fields (≥15 cm diameter) at conventional (CONV) and UHDRs for in vivo investigations of the FLASH effect and its dependences on pulsed electron beam parameters. METHODS: A murine whole-thoracic lung irradiation (WTLI) platform was constructed using a 1.3 cm thick Cerrobend collimator forming a 15 × 1.6 cm2 slit. Control of dose and dose rate were realized by adjusting the number of monitor units and couch vertical position, respectively. Achievable doses and dose rates were investigated using Gafchromic EBT-XD film at 1 cm depth in solid water and lung-density phantoms. Percent depth dose (PDD) and dose profiles at CONV and various UHDRs were also measured at depths from 0 to 2 cm. A radiation survey was performed to assess radioactivation of the Cerrobend collimator by the UHDR electron beam in comparison to a precision-machined copper alternative. RESULTS: This platform allows for the simultaneous thoracic irradiation of at least three mice. A linear relationship between dose and number of monitor units at a given UHDR was established to guide the selection of dose, and an inverse-square relationship between dose rate and source distance was established to guide the selection of dose rate between 20 and 120 Gy·s-1 . At depths of 0.5 to 1.5 cm, the depth range relevant to murine lung irradiation, measured PDDs varied within ±1.5%. Similar lateral dose profiles were observed at CONV and UHDRs with the dose penumbrae widening from 0.3 mm at 0 cm depth to 5.1 mm at 2.0 cm. The presence of lung-density plastic slabs had minimal effect on dose distributions as compared to measurements made with only solid water slabs. Instantaneous dose rate measurements of the activated copper collimator were up to two orders of magnitude higher than that of the Cerrobend collimator. CONCLUSIONS: A high-throughput, variable dose rate platform has been developed and commissioned for murine WTLI electron FLASH radiotherapy. The wide field of our UHDR-enabled linac allows for the simultaneous WTLI of at least three mice, and for the average dose rate to be modified by changing the source distance, without affecting dose distribution. The platform exhibits uniform, and comparable dose distributions at CONV and UHDRs up to 120 Gy·s-1 , owing to matched and flattened 16 MeV CONV and UHDR electron beams. Considering radioactivation and exposure to staff, Cerrobend collimators are recommended above copper alternatives for electron FLASH research. This platform enables high-throughput animal irradiation, which is preferred for experiments using a large number of animals, which are required to effectively determine UHDR treatment efficacies.

TP53 structure-function relationships in metastatic castrate-sensitive prostate cancer and the impact of APR-246 treatment.

PURPOSE: Despite well-informed work in several malignancies, the phenotypic effects of TP53 mutations in metastatic castration-sensitive prostate cancer (mCSPC) progression and metastasis are not clear. We characterized the structure-function and clinical impact of TP53 mutations in mCSPC. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We performed an international retrospective review of men with mCSPC who underwent next-generation sequencing and were stratified according to TP53 mutational status and metastatic burden. Clinical outcomes included radiographic progression-free survival (rPFS) and overall survival (OS) evaluated with Kaplan-Meier and multivariable Cox regression. We also utilized isogenic cancer cell lines to assess the effect of TP53 mutations and APR-246 treatment on migration, invasion, colony formation in vitro, and tumor growth in vivo. Preclinical experimental observations were compared using t-tests and ANOVA. RESULTS: Dominant-negative (DN) TP53 mutations were enriched in patients with synchronous (vs. metachronous) (20.7% vs. 6.3%, p < 0.01) and polymetastatic (vs. oligometastatic) (14.4% vs. 7.9%, p < 0.01) disease. On multivariable analysis, DN mutations were associated with worse rPFS (hazards ratio [HR] = 1.97, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.31-2.98) and overall survival [OS] (HR = 2.05, 95% CI: 1.14-3.68) compared to TP53 wild type (WT). In vitro, 22Rv1 TP53 R175H cells possessed stronger migration, invasion, colony formation ability, and cellular movement pathway enrichment in RNA sequencing analysis compared to 22Rv1 TP53 WT cells. Treatment with APR-246 reversed the effects of TP53 mutations in vitro and inhibited 22Rv1 TP53 R175H tumor growth in vivo in a dosage-dependent manner. CONCLUSIONS: DN TP53 mutations correlated with worse prognosis in prostate cancer patients and higher metastatic potential, which could be counteracted by APR-246 treatment suggesting a potential future therapeutic avenue.