A comprehensive suite of earthquake catalogues for the 2016-2017 Central Italy seismic sequence.

The protracted nature of the 2016-2017 central Italy seismic sequence, with multiple damaging earthquakes spaced over months, presented serious challenges for the duty seismologists and emergency managers as they assimilated the growing sequence to advise the local population. Uncertainty concerning where and when it was safe to occupy vulnerable structures highlighted the need for timely delivery of scientifically based understanding of the evolving hazard and risk. Seismic hazard assessment during complex sequences depends critically on up-to-date earthquake catalogues-i.e., data on locations, magnitudes, and activity of earthquakes-to characterize the ongoing seismicity and fuel earthquake forecasting models. Here we document six earthquake catalogues of this sequence that were developed using a variety of methods. The catalogues possess different levels of resolution and completeness resulting from progressive enhancements in the data availability, detection sensitivity, and hypocentral location accuracy. The catalogues range from real-time to advanced machine-learning procedures and highlight both the promises as well as the challenges of implementing advanced workflows in an operational environment.

The Need for Collective Awareness of Attempted Suicide Rates in a Warming Climate.

Background: Climate factors may offer a stronger explanation of the variations in suicide rates compared with economic variables, even in the case of patients admitted involuntarily. Aims: We assessed the role of temperature as a determinant of the increased prevalence of suicide attempts (SA). Method: The sample comprised all cases of hospitalization for SA at the Psychiatric Clinic of the IRCCS Ospedale Policlinico San Martino between August 2013 and July 2018. For ambient temperature, data were provided by the Meteorological Observatory of the University of Genoa. Results: We noted a peak in suicides that was typically found in late spring and early summer due to global warming. Limitations: Other environmental/psychological factors contributing to the onset of an acute clinical event were not considered. The cross-sectional design of the study is another limitation. Conclusion: Further studies are needed to clarify the impact of climatic factors on suicide behavior and implement early intervention and preventive strategies for mental health.

Meteorological Variables and Suicidal Behavior: Air Pollution and Apparent Temperature Are Associated With High-Lethality Suicide Attempts and Male Gender.

This study analyzed the impact of meteorological variables and high-lethality suicide attempts (HLSA) to assess a potential time shift of HLSA affected by climate evolution to predict the suicide attempt cases over different periods of the year. After attempting suicide, 225 subjects were admitted to the emergency ward of the IRCCS Ospedale Policlinico San Martino and later to the psychiatric unit from March 2016 to July 2018. Socio-demographic and clinical characteristics as well as the meteorological variables were collected. The Mann-Kendall test as well as redundancy and cross-correlation analyses were performed to analyze the trends, statistically correlations, and correspondence of the trends, respectively between suicidal behaviors and climatic factors. Sixty-seven (29.8%) committed a HLSA. Our findings indicate a significant association between HLSA and male gender and apparent temperature with a strong correlation of 75% with a phase shift of -1 month. Solar radiation and air pollution (PM2.5) have a positive correlation of 65 and 32%, respectively, with a zero-time lag. Limitations include that the data are limited to a single hospital; psychological factors, or other clinical variables that could be ruled out as a trigger have not been considered. Meteorological variables may not mirror the temperature that the patient is exposed to due to the air conditioning systems. Exploring those environmental factors associated with HLSA in a more detailed manner could lead to early intervention and prevention strategies for such distressing admissions.

Long-range dependence in earthquake-moment release and implications for earthquake occurrence probability.

Since the beginning of the 1980s, when Mandelbrot observed that earthquakes occur on 'fractal' self-similar sets, many studies have investigated the dynamical mechanisms that lead to self-similarities in the earthquake process. Interpreting seismicity as a self-similar process is undoubtedly convenient to bypass the physical complexities related to the actual process. Self-similar processes are indeed invariant under suitable scaling of space and time. In this study, we show that long-range dependence is an inherent feature of the seismic process, and is universal. Examination of series of cumulative seismic moment both in Italy and worldwide through Hurst's rescaled range analysis shows that seismicity is a memory process with a Hurst exponent H ≈ 0.87. We observe that H is substantially space- and time-invariant, except in cases of catalog incompleteness. This has implications for earthquake forecasting. Hence, we have developed a probability model for earthquake occurrence that allows for long-range dependence in the seismic process. Unlike the Poisson model, dependent events are allowed. This model can be easily transferred to other disciplines that deal with self-similar processes.