Method for Testing Etiologic Heterogeneity Among Non-Competing Diagnoses, Applied to Impact of Perinatal Exposures on Autism and Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder.

BACKGROUND: Testing etiologic heterogeneity - whether a disorder subtype is more or less impacted by a risk factor, is important for understanding causal pathways and optimizing statistical power. The study of mental health disorders especially benefits from strategic sub-categorization because these disorders are heterogenous and frequently co-occur. Existing methods to quantify etiologic heterogeneity are not appropriate for non-competing events in an open cohort of variable-length follow-up. Thus, we developed a new method. METHODS: We estimated risks from urban residence, maternal smoking during pregnancy, and parental psychiatric history, with subtypes defined by the presence or absence of a co-diagnosis: autism alone, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) alone, and joint diagnoses of autism+ADHD. To calculate the risk of a single diagnosis (e.g. autism alone), we subtracted the risk for autism+ADHD from the risk for autism overall. We tested the equivalency of average risk ratios over time, using a Wald-type test and bootstrapped standard errors. RESULTS: Urban residence was most strongly linked with autism+ADHD and least with ADHD only; maternal smoking was associated with ADHD only but not autism only; and parental psychiatric history exhibited similar associations with all subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: Our method allowed the calculation of appropriate p values to test strength of association, informing etiologic heterogeneity wherein two of these three risk factors exhibited different impacts across diagnostic subtypes. The method used all available data, avoided neurodevelopmental outcome misclassification, exhibited robust statistical precision, and is applicable to similar heterogeneous complex conditions using common diagnostic data with variable follow-up.

3-generation family medical histories of mental, neurologic, cardiometabolic, birth defect, asthma, allergy, and autoimmune conditions associated with autism.

Background: Family histories of different mental and non-mental conditions have often been associated with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) but the restricted scope of conditions and family members that have been investigated limits etiologic understanding. We aimed to perform a comprehensive assessment of ASD associations with 3-generation family histories of 90 mental, neurologic, cardiometabolic, birth defect, asthma, allergy, and autoimmune conditions. The assessment comprised separate estimates of association with ASD overall; separate estimates by sex and intellectual disability (ID) status; as well as separate estimates of the co-occurrence of each of the 90 disorders in autistic persons. Additionally, we aimed to provide interactive catalogues of results to facilitate results visualization and further hypothesis-generation. Methods: We conducted a population-based, registry cohort study comprised of all live births in Denmark, 1980-2012, of Denmark-born parents, and with birth registry information (1,697,231 births), and their 3-generation family member types (20 types). All cohort members were followed from birth through April 10, 2017 for an ASD diagnosis. All participants (cohort members and each family member) were followed from birth through April 10, 2017 for each of 90 diagnoses, emigration or death. Adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) were estimated for ASD overall; by sex; or accounting for ID via separate Cox regression models for each diagnosis-family member type combination, adjusting for birth year, sex, birth weight, gestational age, parental ages at birth, and number of family member types of index person. aHRs were also calculated for sex-specific co-occurrence of each disorder, for ASD overall and considering ID. A catalogue of all results is displayed via interactive heat maps here: https://ncrr-au.shinyapps.io/asd-riskatlas/ and interactive graphic summaries of results are here: https://public.tableau.com/views/ASDPlots_16918786403110/e-Figure5. Results: Increased aHRs for ASD (26,840 cases; 1.6% of births) were observed for almost all individual mental disorder-family member type combinations yet for fewer non-mental disorder-family member type combinations. aHRs declined with diminishing degree of relatedness between the index person and family member for some disorders, especially mental disorders. Variation in aHR magnitude by family member sex (e.g., higher maternal than paternal aHRs) or side of the family (e.g., higher maternal versus paternal half sibling aHRs) was more evident among non-mental than mental disorders. Co-occurring ID in the family member or the index person impacted aHR variation. Conclusion: Our approach revealed considerable breadth and variation in magnitude of familial health history associations with ASD by type of condition, sex of the affected family member, side of the family, sex of the index person, and ID status which is indicative of diverse genetic, familial, and non-genetic ASD etiologic pathways. More careful attention to identifying sources of autism likelihood encompassed in family medical history, in addition to genetics, may accelerate understanding of factors underlying neurodiversity.

Big data in autism research: Methodological challenges and solutions.

While the concept of big data has emerged over the past decade as a hot topic in nearly all areas of scientific inquiry, it has rarely been discussed in the context of autism research. In this commentary we describe aspects of big data that are relevant to autism research and methodological issues such as confounding and data error that can hamper scientific investigation. Although big data studies can have transformative impact, bigger is not always better, and big data require the same methodological considerations and interdisciplinary collaboration as "small data" to extract useful scientific insight.

Autistic Adult Services Availability, Preferences, and User Experiences: Results From the Autism Spectrum Disorder in the European Union Survey.

There is very little knowledge regarding autistic adult services, practices, and delivery. The study objective was to improve understanding of current services and practices for autistic adults and opportunities for improvement as part of the Autism Spectrum Disorder in the European Union (ASDEU) project. Separate survey versions were created for autistic adults, carers of autistic adults, and professionals in adult services. 2,009 persons responded to the survey and 1,085 (54%) of them completed at least one of the services sections: 469 autistic adults (65% female; 55% <35 years old), 441 carers of autistic adults (27% female; 6% <35 years old), 175 professionals in adult services (76% female; 67% in non-medical services). Top choices by autistic adults, carers or professionals for services best suiting their current needs were: residential services: "help in own home" (adults, carers of high independent adults, professionals), "fulltime residential facility" (carers of low independent adults); employment services: "job mentors" (adults, carers of high independent adults, professionals), "Sheltered employment" (carers of low independent adults); education services: "support in regular education setting" (all groups); financial services: financial support in lieu of employment ("Supplementary income for persons unable to have full employment" for adults, "full pension" for carers of low independent adults) or to supplement employment earnings for carers of high independent adults and professionals; social services: "behavior training" (adults) and "life skills training" (carers and professionals). Waiting times for specific services were generally < 1 month or 1-3 months, except for residential services which could be up to 6 months; most professionals were uninformed of waiting times (>50% responded "don't know"). Five of seven residential services features recommended for autistic adults were experienced by <50% of adults. The knowledge of good local services models that work well for autistic adults was generally low across all services areas. The variation in services experiences and perceptions reported by autistic adults, carers, or professionals underscore the need to query all groups for a complete picture of community services availability and needs. The results showed areas for potential improvement in autistic adult services delivery in the EU to achieve recommended standards.

Determinants of satisfaction with the detection process of autism in Europe: Results from the ASDEU study.

LAY ABSTRACT: Professional guidance and support in response to first concerns appears to be an important predictor of the level of satisfaction with the detection process of autism in young children. In this study, we analyzed the views of 1342 family members, including 1278 parents, who completed an online survey form collecting information about their experience and satisfaction with the early detection of autism in their child. Specifically, we were interested in how specific experiences with the detection process relate to the satisfaction with it and whether we could identify important predictors of satisfaction. The detection process is an emotionally charged period for parents, often described as painful, chaotic, and lengthy. A better understanding of their experiences is important to take appropriate action to improve the detection process. In our sample, the level of satisfaction with the detection process varied greatly from one respondent to another. Among the different experiences we considered, whether or not respondents received professional guidance and support in response to first concerns explained most of this variation. We also found that difficulty finding information about detection services, lack of professional guidance and support in response to first concerns, having to find a diagnostic service on one's own, and longer delays between confirmation of concerns and first appointment with a specialist were experiences associated with a greater likelihood of being unsatisfied. The findings of this study highlight the importance of the parent-professional relationship in the detection process and have important practical implications for health administrations to improve the detection process.

Applying a public health approach to autism research: A framework for action.

Most published autism research, and the funding that supports it, remains focused on basic and clinical science. However, the public health impact of autism drives a compelling argument for utilizing a public health approach to autism research. Fundamental to the public health perspective is a focus on health determinants to improve quality of life and to reduce the potential for adverse outcomes across the general population, including in vulnerable subgroups. While the public health research process can be conceptualized as a linear, 3-stage path consisting of discovery - testing - translation/dissemination/implementation, in this paper we propose an integrated, cyclical research framework to advance autism public health objectives in a more comprehensive manner. This involves discovery of primary, secondary and tertiary determinants of health in autism; and use of this evidence base to develop and test detection, intervention, and dissemination strategies and the means to implement them in 'real world' settings. The proposed framework serves to facilitate identification of knowledge gaps, translational barriers, and shortfalls in implementation; guides an iterative research cycle; facilitates purposeful integration of stakeholders and interdisciplinary researchers; and may yield more efficient achievement of improved health and well-being among persons on the autism spectrum at the population-level. LAY SUMMARY: Scientists need better ways to identify and address gaps in autism research, conduct research with stakeholders, and use findings to improve the lives of autistic people. We recommend an approach, based in public health science, to guide research in ways that might impact lives more quickly.

Temporal changes in sex- and age-specific incidence profiles of mental disorders-A nationwide study from 1970 to 2016.

OBJECTIVE: Information on mental disorders over time is critical for documenting changes in population burden, and aiding understanding of potential causal and non-causal factors. The aim of this study was to provide temporal changes in the sex- and age-specific incidence rates (IR) of mental disorders diagnosed in Danish hospitals during five decades and investigate whether such changes may be attributable to changes in administrative reporting practice. METHODS: This population-based cohort study included all people living in Denmark between 1970 and 2016. Mental disorders diagnoses were obtained from the Danish Psychiatric Central Research Register. We estimated the IR of each mental disorder (all persons, and sex- and age-specific IRs) and examined the impact of two administrative changes. RESULTS: Our study included 9 107 157 people, followed for 233.0 million person-years. During follow-up, 9.5% were diagnosed with at least one mental disorder. The IR for any mental disorder was 39.0 per 10,000 person-years. Despite fluctuations, this increased between 1970-84 and 2005-2016, from 28.9 to 63.0 per 10,000 person-years. Increases were most pronounced for younger age groups. Administrative changes did appear to influence incidence rates. CONCLUSION: Mental disorder IRs have increased in Denmark since 1970, with age of diagnosis shifting downwards. Both trends were likely impacted by administrative changes, while the latter is likely to be (partly) attributable to earlier detection and increased reporting of child-onset conditions. Our findings may provide valuable context of the epidemiology of mental disorders across age groups for comparison with other studies and populations.

Intervention Services for Autistic Adults: An ASDEU Study of Autistic Adults, Carers, and Professionals' Experiences.

The Autism Spectrum Disorders in the European Union (ASDEU) survey investigated local services' use experiences of autistic adults, carers and professionals with interventions for autistic adults. The majority of the 697 participants experienced recommended considerations prior to deciding on intervention and during the intervention plan and implementation. Psychosocial interventions were the most commonly experienced interventions, while pharmacological interventions NOT recommended for core autistic symptoms were reported by fairly large proportions of participants. Family interventions were experienced slightly more commonly by carers than adults or professionals. Less than the 26% of autistic adult responders who had experienced challenging behaviors reported receiving an intervention to change them. These results provide insights for improving gaps in service provision of interventions among autistic adults.

Maternal smoking during pregnancy and offspring intellectual disability: sibling analysis in an intergenerational Danish cohort.

BACKGROUND: Maternal smoking has known adverse effects on fetal development. However, research on the association between maternal smoking during pregnancy and offspring intellectual disability (ID) is limited, and whether any associations are due to a causal effect or residual confounding is unknown. METHOD: Cohort study of all Danish births between 1995 and 2012 (1 066 989 persons from 658 335 families after exclusions), with prospectively recorded data for cohort members, parents and siblings. We assessed the association between maternal smoking during pregnancy (18.6% exposed, collected during prenatal visits) and offspring ID (8051 cases, measured using ICD-10 diagnosis codes F70-F79) using logistic generalised estimating equation regression models. Models were adjusted for confounders including measures of socio-economic status and parental psychiatric diagnoses and were adjusted for family averaged exposure between full siblings. Adjustment for a family averaged exposure allows calculation of the within-family effect of smoking on child outcomes which is robust against confounders that are shared between siblings. RESULTS: We found increased odds of ID among those exposed to maternal smoking in pregnancy after confounder adjustment (OR 1.35, 95% CI 1.28-1.42) which attenuated to a null effect following adjustment for family averaged exposure (OR 0.91, 95% CI 0.78-1.06). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings are inconsistent with a causal effect of maternal smoking during pregnancy on offspring ID risk. By estimating a within-family effect, our results suggest that prior associations were the result of unmeasured genetic or environmental characteristics of families in which the mother smokes during pregnancy.

Evaluating the interrelations between the autism polygenic score and psychiatric family history in risk for autism.

Psychiatric family history or a high autism polygenic risk score (PRS) have been separately linked to autism spectrum disorder (ASD) risk. The study aimed to simultaneously consider psychiatric family history and individual autism genetic liability (PRS) in autism risk. We performed a case-control study of all Denmark singleton births, May 1981-December 2005, in Denmark at their first birthday and a known mother. Cases were diagnosed with ASD before 2013 and controls comprised a random sample of 30,000 births without ASD, excluding persons with non-Denmark-born parents, missing ASD PRS, non-European ancestry. Adjusted odds ratios (aOR) were estimated for ASD by PRS decile and by psychiatric history in parents or full siblings (8 mutually-exclusive categories) using logistic regression. Adjusted ASD PRS z-score least-squares means were estimated by psychiatric family history category. ASD risk (11,339 ASD cases; 20,175 controls) from ASD PRS was not substantially altered after accounting for psychiatric family history (e.g., ASD PRS 10th decile aOR: 2.35 (95% CI 2.11-2.63) before vs 2.11 (95% CI 1.91-2.40) after adjustment) nor from psychiatric family history after accounting for ASD PRS (e.g., ASD family history aOR: 6.73 (95% CI 5.89-7.68) before vs 6.32 (95% CI 5.53-7.22) after adjustment). ASD risk from ASD PRS varied slightly by psychiatric family history. While ASD risk from psychiatric family history was not accounted for by ASD PRS and vice versa, risk overlap between the two factors will likely increase as measures of genetic risk improve. The two factors are best viewed as complementary measures of family-based autism risk. LAY SUMMARY: Autism risk from a history of mental disorders in the immediate family was not explained by a measure of individual genetic risk (autism polygenic risk score) and vice versa. That is, genetic risk did not appear to overlap family history risk. As genetic measures for autism improve then the overlap in autism risk from family history versus genetic factors will likely increase, but further study may be needed to fully determine the components of risk and how they are inter-related between these key family factors. Meanwhile, the two factors may be best viewed as complementary measures of autism family-based risk.

Optimal interpregnancy interval in autism spectrum disorder: A multi-national study of a modifiable risk factor.

It is biologically plausible that risk of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is elevated by both short and long interpregnancy intervals (IPI). We conducted a retrospective cohort study of singleton, non-nulliparous live births, 1998-2007 in Denmark, Finland, and Sweden (N = 925,523 births). Optimal IPI was defined as the IPI at which minimum risk was observed. Generalized additive models were used to estimate relative risks (RR) of ASD and 95% Confidence Intervals (CI). Population impact fractions (PIF) for ASD were estimated under scenarios for shifts in the IPI distribution. We observed that the association between ASD (N = 9302) and IPI was U-shaped for all countries. ASD risk was lowest (optimal IPI) at 35 months for all countries combined, and at 30, 33, and 39 months in Denmark, Finland, and Sweden, respectively. Fully adjusted RRs at IPIs of 6, 12, and 60 months were 1.41 (95% CI: 1.08, 1.85), 1.26 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.56), and 1.24 (95% CI: 0.98, 1.58) compared to an IPI of 35 months. Under the most conservative scenario PIFs ranged from 5% (95% CI: 1%-8%) in Denmark to 9% (95% CI: 6%-12%) in Sweden. The minimum ASD risk followed IPIs of 30-39 months across three countries. These results reflect both direct IPI effects and other, closely related social and biological pathways. If our results reflect biologically causal effects, increasing optimal IPIs and reducing their indications, such as unintended pregnancy and delayed age at first pregnancy has the potential to prevent a salient proportion of ASD cases. LAY SUMMARY: Waiting 35 months to conceive again after giving birth resulted in the least risk of autism. Shorter and longer intervals resulted in risks that were up to 50% and 85% higher, respectively. About 5% to 9% of autism cases might be avoided by optimizing birth spacing.

Autistic Adult Health and Professional Perceptions of It: Evidence From the ASDEU Project.

The Autism Spectrum Disorders in the European Union (ASDEU) survey investigated the knowledge and health service experiences of users and providers to generate new hypotheses and scientific investigations that would contribute to improvement in health care for autistic adults. An online survey designed for autistic adults, carers of autistic adults, and professionals in adult services was translated into 11 languages and distributed electronically by organizations and in-country adult service facilities in 2017; 522 autistic adults, 442 carers, and 113 professionals provided answers to the health questions. Professionals, the majority in non-medical services, appeared to be poorly informed about whether certain co-occurring conditions were more frequent in autistic adults than typical adults-especially some medical conditions, suicide attempts, accidents, and pain. A minority of autistic adults reported preventive health behaviors such as routine health check-ups. The majority of users and providers expressed the desire to make health care services more user-friendly for autistic adults. Among the three groups, <20% of responders knew an organization or clinician which has developed a way to monitor health, and prevent poor health, that works well for adults on the autism spectrum. The results point to means for better management of co-occurring conditions associated with autism in adulthood in order to reduce hospital admissions and potential areas of improvement in health and social services for autistic adults. Specifically, efforts should be focused on (1) professionals' education on risks for co-occurring conditions in autistic adults; (2) promoting preventive health behaviors; (3) making services user-friendly for autistic adults and their families; and (4) encouraging knowledge of good local services.

Assessment of Educational Attainment and Employment Among Individuals With Autism Spectrum Disorder in Denmark.

Importance: Population-based data on educational and employment outcomes in adulthood among individuals diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) in childhood are currently limited. Objective: To evaluate educational attainment and employment among individuals with and without a diagnosis of ASD before age 12 years in Denmark. Design, Setting, and Participants: This nationwide cross-sectional prevalence study was conducted using data from Danish registers. Individuals with a diagnosis of ASD recorded before age 12 years were identified among all individuals born in Denmark between January 1, 1989, and December 31, 1991, who were alive at age 25 years. Individuals with ASD were then matched on a 10:1 ratio by age, sex, and region of residence with a comparison population of individuals without a diagnosis of ASD at age 12 years. Data were analyzed from March 2019 to December 2020. Exposures: Autism spectrum disorder diagnosis and diagnostic subtype recorded before age 12 years. Main Outcomes and Measures: Adjusted prevalence ratios (aPRs) with 95% CIs for the completion of compulsory primary and lower secondary school (grade 9), upper secondary school (grades 10-12 or vocational), and tertiary school (university) and for employment by age 25 years were estimated using log-binomial regression analysis. Results: A total of 810 individuals with a diagnosis of ASD before age 12 years were matched with a comparison population of 8100 individuals without ASD. The prevalence of ninth-grade completion was similar among those with and without ASD (785 individuals [96.9%] and 7982 individuals [98.5%], respectively; aPR, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.97-1.00). Compared with those without ASD, persons with ASD had a lower prevalence of completing upper secondary school (6338 individuals [78.2%] vs 286 individuals [35.3%], respectively; aPR, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.42-0.50) and tertiary school (2185 individuals [27.0%] vs 70 individuals [8.6%]; aPR, 0.33; 95% CI, 0.26-0.41) and obtaining employment (4284 individuals [77.7%] vs 177 individuals [27.2%]; aPR, 0.35; 95% CI, 0.31-0.40) at age 25 years. A ninth-grade final examination score was available for 394 individuals (48.6%) with ASD and 7417 individuals (91.6%) without ASD. In an analysis stratified by ASD subtype, individuals diagnosed with childhood autism had lower educational attainment and employment than those diagnosed with Asperger syndrome or pervasive developmental disorder not otherwise specified. A total of 461 individuals (56.9%) with ASD were receiving public assistance or a pension (ie, disability benefits) at age 25 years compared with 1094 individuals (13.5%) without ASD in the comparison population. Conclusions and Relevance: In this population-based cross-sectional study, a diagnosis of ASD in childhood was not associated with the completion of compulsory primary and lower secondary education (ninth grade). An ASD diagnosis before age 12 years was associated with a lower prevalence of attaining education beyond ninth grade and obtaining employment by age 25 years, indicating a substantially higher risk of reliance on public assistance in young adulthood.

Maternal health around pregnancy and autism risk: a diagnosis-wide, population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Many studies have reported an increased risk of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) associated with some maternal diagnoses in pregnancy. However, such associations have not been studied systematically, accounting for comorbidity between maternal disorders. Therefore our aim was to comprehensively test the associations between maternal diagnoses around pregnancy and ASD risk in offspring. METHODS: This exploratory case-cohort study included children born in Israel from 1997 to 2008, and followed up until 2015. We used information on all ICD-9 codes received by their mothers during pregnancy and the preceding year. ASD risk associated with each of those conditions was calculated using Cox proportional hazards regression, adjusted for the confounders (birth year, maternal age, socioeconomic status and number of ICD-9 diagnoses during the exposure period). RESULTS: The analytic sample consisted of 80 187 individuals (1132 cases, 79 055 controls), with 822 unique ICD-9 codes recorded in their mothers. After extensive quality control, 22 maternal diagnoses were nominally significantly associated with offspring ASD, with 16 of those surviving subsequent filtering steps (permutation testing, multiple testing correction, multiple regression). Among those, we recorded an increased risk of ASD associated with metabolic [e.g. hypertension; HR = 2.74 (1.92-3.90), p = 2.43 × 10-8], genitourinary [e.g. non-inflammatory disorders of cervix; HR = 1.88 (1.38-2.57), p = 7.06 × 10-5] and psychiatric [depressive disorder; HR = 2.11 (1.32-3.35), p = 1.70 × 10-3] diagnoses. Meanwhile, mothers of children with ASD were less likely to attend prenatal care appointment [HR = 0.62 (0.54-0.71), p = 1.80 × 10-11]. CONCLUSIONS: Sixteen maternal diagnoses were associated with ASD in the offspring, after rigorous filtering of potential false-positive associations. Replication in other cohorts and further research to understand the mechanisms underlying the observed associations with ASD are warranted.

Real-World Experiences in Autistic Adult Diagnostic Services and Post-diagnostic Support and Alignment with Services Guidelines: Results from the ASDEU Study.

Research providing an evidence-base for autistic adult services is sparse. The Autism Spectrum Disorders in the European Union (ASDEU) network implemented an on-line survey to determine gaps in autistic adult diagnostic evaluation and post-diagnostic support services. More than 55% in all groups experienced most of the recommended features for diagnostic evaluation for autistic adults. In contrast, < 2% of adults or carers, and < 21% of professionals experienced each of the recommended features for post-diagnostic support. In contrast to 61% of professionals, only about 30% of autistic adults and carers had knowledge of good local services models for autism diagnosis in adulthood. There are major differences between good practice guidelines for diagnostic and post-diagnostic care for autistic adults, and what is actually experienced by services users and professionals.

Factors Associated with a Delayed Autism Spectrum Disorder Diagnosis in Children Previously Assessed on Suspicion of Autism.

This study aimed to investigate factors associated with a delayed autism spectrum (ASD) diagnosis when compared to children with either no or early ASD diagnosis. Among 893 children assessed for ASD before age 8, 39% had no ASD at baseline, of which 21% received a later ASD diagnosis. Autism symptoms, diagnostic history of other developmental disorders, cognitive ability, and socioeconomic factors were associated with delayed ASD. Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule (ADOS) scores in delayed ASD fell between early and no ASD. Other developmental disorders, time and clinical trends like ADOS use and low parental education distinguished delayed and early ASD, whereas higher frequency of IQ < 70 at baseline and a diagnosis of emotional disorders during follow-up distinguished delayed and no ASD.

Time Trends in Diagnostics and Clinical Features of Young Children Referred on Suspicion of Autism: A Population-Based Clinical Cohort Study, 2000-2010.

The present study aimed to explore clinical trends in the period 2000-2010, along with discriminating clinical factors for autism spectrum disorder (ASD), in young children suspected of ASD. The following trends were observed: (1) a rise in referrals including an increase in referrals among language-abled children, (2) an increase in children assigned an ASD diagnosis after assessment, and (3) a decrease in Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule total score. The distribution of ASD subtypes and IQ level did not change. Results suggest that a higher proportion of children with less severe autism symptoms were referred and diagnosed. Further, restricted and repetitive behaviors seemed to be a key discriminating factor when distinguishing between ASD and no-ASD children with a discordant symptom profile.

Prediction of Autism Risk From Family Medical History Data Using Machine Learning: A National Cohort Study From Denmark.

Background: A family history of specific disorders (e.g., autism, depression, epilepsy) has been linked to risk for autism spectrum disorder (ASD). This study examines whether family history data could be used for ASD risk prediction. Methods: We followed all Danish live births, from 1980 to 2012, of Denmark-born parents for an ASD diagnosis through April 10, 2017 (N = 1,697,231 births; 26,840 ASD cases). Linking each birth to three-generation family members, we identified 438 morbidity indicators, comprising 73 disorders reported prospectively for each family member. We tested various models using a machine learning approach. From the best-performing model, we calculated a family history risk score and estimated odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for the risk of ASD. Results: The best-performing model comprised 41 indicators: eight mental conditions (e.g., ASD, attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, neurotic/stress disorders) and nine nonmental conditions (e.g., obesity, hypertension, asthma) across six family member types; model performance was similar in training and test subsamples. The highest risk score group had 17.0% ASD prevalence and a 15.3-fold (95% confidence interval, 14.0-17.1) increased ASD risk compared with the lowest score group, which had 0.6% ASD prevalence. In contrast, individuals with a full sibling with ASD had 9.5% ASD prevalence and a 6.1-fold (95% confidence interval, 5.9-6.4) higher risk than individuals without an affected sibling. Conclusions: Family history of multiple mental and nonmental conditions can identify more individuals at highest risk for ASD than only considering the immediate family history of ASD. A comprehensive family history may be critical for a clinically relevant ASD risk prediction framework in the future.

Familial confounding of the association between maternal smoking in pregnancy and autism spectrum disorder in offspring.

Evidence supports no link between maternal smoking in pregnancy and autism spectrum disorder (autism) overall. To address remaining questions about the unexplained heterogeneity between study results and the possibility of risk for specific autism sub-phenotypes, we conducted a whole-population cohort study in Denmark. We followed births 1991-2011 (1,294,906 persons, including 993,301 siblings in 728,271 families), from 1 year of age until an autism diagnosis (13,547), death, emigration, or December 31, 2012. Autism, with and without attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and with and without intellectual disability (ID) were based on ICD-8 and ICD-10 codes from Danish national health registers, including 3,319 autism + ADHD, 10,228 autism - no ADHD, 2,205 autism + ID, and 11,342 autism - no ID. We estimated hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) between any maternal smoking (from birth records) and autism (or sub-phenotypes) using survival models with robust standard errors, stratifying by birth year and adjusting for child sex, parity, and parental age, education, income, and psychiatric history. To additionally address confounding using family designs, we constructed a maternal cluster model (adjusting for the smoking proportion within the family), and a stratified sibling model. Associations with maternal smoking and autism were elevated in conventional adjusted analyses (HR of 1.17 [1.13-1.22]) but attenuated in the maternal cluster (0.98 [0.88-1.09]) and sibling (0.86 [0.64-1.15]) models. Similarly, risks of autism sub-phenotypes with maternal smoking were attenuated in the family-based models. Together these results support that smoking in pregnancy is not linked with autism or select autism comorbid sub-phenotypes after accounting for familial confounding. Autism Res 2020, 13: 134-144. © 2019 International Society for Autism Research, Wiley Periodicals, Inc. LAY SUMMARY: Smoking during pregnancy has many harmful impacts, which may include harming the baby's developing brain. However, in a study of thousands of families in Denmark, it does not appear that smoking in pregnancy leads to autism or autism in combination with intellectual problems or attention deficits, once you account for the way smoking patterns and developmental disabilities run in families.