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The available medical literature on lung function and corresponding clinical characteristics among symptomatic survivors of Corona Virus Disease 2019 (long COVID) is sparse. Primary physicians referred patients who manifested persistent dyspnea months after their index case of infection to a designated clinic. Patients underwent symptom-driven, quality-of-life, physical, and focused respiratory [pulmonary function tests and computed tomography (CT) of the chest] evaluations and were followed over time. In this paper, we present our findings. Patients with abnormal CT imaging were more likely to be of advanced age and to have been hospitalized during their COVID-19 infection. Forced exhaled volume in the first second, forced vital capacity (FVC), total lung capacity, and diffusion capacity of carbon monoxide measurements were found to be significantly lower in patients with abnormal CT imaging. Multivariate regression of clinical characteristics uncovered a significant association between FVC, body mass index, history of hospitalization, and diabetes mellitus. In conclusion, longer-term studies will help further our understanding of the risk factors, disease course, and prognosis of long COVID patients.
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Background: An estimated 3 billion people, largely in low- and middle-income countries, rely on unclean fuels for cooking, heating, and lighting to meet household energy needs. The resulting exposure to household air pollution (HAP) is a leading cause of pneumonia, chronic lung disease, and other adverse health effects. In the last decade, randomized controlled trials of clean cooking interventions to reduce HAP have been conducted. We aim to provide guidance on how to interpret the findings of these trials and how they should inform policy makers and practitioners.Methods: We assembled a multidisciplinary working group of international researchers, public health practitioners, and policymakers with expertise in household air pollution from within academia, the American Thoracic Society, funders, nongovernmental organizations, and global organizations, including the World Bank and the World Health Organization. We performed a literature search, convened four sessions via web conference, and developed consensus conclusions and recommendations via the Delphi method.Results: The committee reached consensus on 14 conclusions and recommendations. Although some trials using cleaner-burning biomass stoves or cleaner-cooking fuels have reduced HAP exposure, the committee was divided (with 55% saying no and 45% saying yes) on whether the studied interventions improved measured health outcomes.Conclusions: HAP is associated with adverse health effects in observational studies. However, it remains unclear which household energy interventions reduce exposure, improve health, can be scaled, and are sustainable. Researchers should engage with policy makers and practitioners working to scale cleaner energy solutions to understand and address their information needs.
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Contaminación del Aire , Países en Desarrollo , Humanos , Biomasa , Consenso , Sociedades , Ensayos Clínicos Controlados Aleatorios como Asunto , Estudios Observacionales como AsuntoRESUMEN
Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) bear most of the global burden of critical illness. Managing this burden requires improved understanding of epidemiology and outcomes in LMIC intensive care units (ICUs), including LMIC-specific mortality prediction scores. This study was a retrospective observational study at Tikur Anbessa Specialized Hospital in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, examining all consecutive medical ICU admissions from June 2014 to April 2015. The primary outcome was ICU mortality; secondary outcomes were prolonged ICU stay and prolonged mechanical ventilation. ICU mortality prediction models were created using multivariable logistic regression and compared with the Mortality Probability Model-II (MPM-II). Associations with secondary outcomes were examined with multivariable logistic regression. There were 198 admissions during the study period; mortality was 35%. Age, shock on admission, mechanical ventilation, human immunodeficiency virus, and Glasgow Coma Scale ≤8 were associated with ICU mortality. The receiver operating characteristic curve for this 5-factor model had an AUC of 0.8205 versus 0.7468 for MPM-II, favoring the simplified new model. Mechanical ventilation and lack of shock were associated with prolonged ICU stays. Mortality in an LMIC medical ICU was high. This study examines an LMIC medical ICU population, showing a simplified prediction model may predict mortality as well as complex models.
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Enfermedad Crítica , Mortalidad Hospitalaria , Unidades de Cuidados Intensivos , Tiempo de Internación , Respiración Artificial , Humanos , Etiopía/epidemiología , Masculino , Femenino , Estudios Retrospectivos , Unidades de Cuidados Intensivos/estadística & datos numéricos , Persona de Mediana Edad , Enfermedad Crítica/mortalidad , Enfermedad Crítica/terapia , Respiración Artificial/estadística & datos numéricos , Respiración Artificial/mortalidad , Tiempo de Internación/estadística & datos numéricos , Adulto , Modelos Logísticos , Curva ROC , Anciano , Escala de Coma de Glasgow , Factores de Riesgo , Países en Desarrollo/estadística & datos numéricos , Choque/mortalidad , Choque/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Various reports suggested that pre-existing medical illnesses, including hypertension and other demographic, clinical, and laboratory factors, could pose an increased risk of disease severity and mortality among COVID-19 patients. This study aimed to assess the relation of hypertension and other factors to the severity of COVID-19 pneumonia in patients discharged from Eka Kotebe Hospital in June-September, 2020. METHODS: This is a single-center case-control study of 265 adult patients discharged alive or dead, 75 with a course of severe COVID-19 for the cases arm and 190 with the non-severe disease for the control arm. Three age and sex-matched controls were selected randomly for each patient on the case arm. Chi-square, multivariable binary logistic regression, and odds ratio (OR) with a 95% confidence interval was used to assess the association between the various factors and the severity of the disease. A p-value of <0.05 is considered statistically significant. RESULTS: Of the 265 study participants, 80% were male. The median age was 43 IQR(36-60) years. Both arms had similar demographic characteristics. Hypertension was strongly associated with the severity of COVID-19 pneumonia based on effect outcome adjustment (AOR = 2.93, 95% CI 1.489, 5.783, p-value = 0.002), similarly, having diabetes mellitus (AOR = 3.17, 95% CI 1.374, 7.313, p-value<0.007), chronic cardiac disease (AOR = 4.803, 95% CI 1.238-18.636, p<0.023), and an increase in a pulse rate (AOR = 1.041, 95% CI 1.017, 1.066, p-value = 0.001) were found to have a significant association with the severity of COVID-19 pneumonia. CONCLUSIONS: Hypertension was associated with the severity of COVID-19 pneumonia, and so were diabetes mellitus, chronic cardiac disease, and an increase in pulse rate.
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COVID-19 , Diabetes Mellitus , Cardiopatías , Hipertensión , Adulto , COVID-19/epidemiología , Estudios de Casos y Controles , Diabetes Mellitus/epidemiología , Etiopía/epidemiología , Femenino , Humanos , Hipertensión/complicaciones , Hipertensión/epidemiología , Masculino , Factores de Riesgo , Índice de Severidad de la EnfermedadRESUMEN
Data from much of Africa are still scarce on the clinical characteristics, outcomes of treatment, and factors associated with disease severity and mortality of COVID-19. A cross-sectional study was conducted at Eka Kotebe General Hospital, Ethiopia's first COVID-19 treatment center. All consecutive symptomatic SARS CoV-2 RT-PCR positive individuals, aged 18 and older, admitted to the hospital between March 13 and September 16, 2020, were included. Of the total 463 cases, 319 (68.9%) were male. The median age was 45 years (interquartile range 32-62). The most common three symptoms were cough (69%), shortness of breath (SOB; 44%), and fatigue (37%). Hypertension was the most prevalent comorbidity, followed by diabetes mellitus. The age groups 40 to 59 and ≥ 60 were more likely to have severe disease compared with those < 40 years of age (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 3.45, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.88-6.31 and aOR = 3.46, 95% CI: 1.91-6.90, respectively). Other factors associated with disease severity included the presence of any malignancy (aOR = 4.64, 95% CI: 1.32-16.33) and SOB (aOR = 3.83, 95% CI: 2.35-6.25). The age group ≥ 60 was significantly associated with greater in-hospital mortality compared with those < 40 years. In addition, the presence of any malignancy, SOB, and vomiting were associated with higher odds of mortality. In Ethiopia, most COVID-19 patients were male and presented with cough, SOB, and fatigue. Older age, any malignancy, and SOB were associated with disease severity; these factors, in addition to vomiting, also predicted mortality.
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COVID-19 , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Adulto , Preescolar , Niño , Femenino , Etiopía/epidemiología , Hospitales Generales , Estudios Transversales , Tratamiento Farmacológico de COVID-19 , Tos , Resultado del TratamientoRESUMEN
OBJECTIVES: The utility and risks to providers of performing cardiopulmonary resuscitation after in-hospital cardiac arrest in COVID-19 patients have been questioned. Additionally, there are discrepancies in reported COVID-19 in-hospital cardiac arrest survival rates. We describe outcomes after cardiopulmonary resuscitation for in-hospital cardiac arrest in two COVID-19 patient cohorts. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: New York-Presbyterian Hospital/Columbia University Irving Medical Center in New York, NY. PATIENTS: Those admitted with COVID-19 between March 1, 2020, and May 31, 2020, as well as between March 1, 2021, and May 31, 2021, who received resuscitation after in-hospital cardiac arrest. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENT AND MAIN RESULTS: Among 103 patients with coronavirus disease 2019 who were resuscitated after in-hospital cardiac arrest in spring 2020, most self-identified as Hispanic/Latino or African American, 35 (34.0%) had return of spontaneous circulation for at least 20 minutes, and 15 (14.6%) survived to 30 days post-arrest. Compared with nonsurvivors, 30-day survivors experienced in-hospital cardiac arrest later (day 22 vs day 7; p = 0.008) and were more likely to have had an acute respiratory event preceding in-hospital cardiac arrest (93.3% vs 27.3%; p < 0.001). Among 30-day survivors, 11 (73.3%) survived to hospital discharge, at which point 8 (72.7%) had Cerebral Performance Category scores of 1 or 2. Among 26 COVID-19 patients resuscitated after in-hospital cardiac arrest in spring 2021, 15 (57.7%) had return of spontaneous circulation for at least 20 minutes, 3 (11.5%) survived to 30 days post in-hospital cardiac arrest, and 2 (7.7%) survived to hospital discharge, both with Cerebral Performance Category scores of 2 or less. Those who survived to 30 days post in-hospital cardiac arrest were younger (46.3 vs 67.8; p = 0.03), but otherwise there were no significant differences between groups. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with COVID-19 who received cardiopulmonary resuscitation after in-hospital cardiac arrest had low survival rates. Our findings additionally show return of spontaneous circulation rates in these patients may be impacted by hospital strain and that patients with in-hospital cardiac arrest preceded by acute respiratory events might be more likely to survive to 30 days, suggesting Advanced Cardiac Life Support efforts may be more successful in this subpopulation.
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Importance: Electronic directly observed therapy (DOT) is used increasingly as an alternative to in-person DOT for monitoring tuberculosis treatment. Evidence supporting its efficacy is limited. Objective: To determine whether electronic DOT can attain a level of treatment observation as favorable as in-person DOT. Design, Setting, and Participants: This was a 2-period crossover, noninferiority trial with initial randomization to electronic or in-person DOT at the time outpatient tuberculosis treatment began. The trial enrolled 216 participants with physician-suspected or bacteriologically confirmed tuberculosis from July 2017 to October 2019 in 4 clinics operated by the New York City Health Department. Data analysis was conducted between March 2020 and April 2021. Interventions: Participants were asked to complete 20 medication doses using 1 DOT method, then switched methods for another 20 doses. With in-person therapy, participants chose clinic or community-based DOT; with electronic DOT, participants chose live video-conferencing or recorded videos. Main Outcomes and Measures: Difference between the percentage of medication doses participants were observed to completely ingest with in-person DOT and with electronic DOT. Noninferiority was demonstrated if the upper 95% confidence limit of the difference was 10% or less. We estimated the percentage of completed doses using a logistic mixed effects model, run in 4 modes: modified intention-to-treat, per-protocol, per-protocol with 85% or more of doses conforming to the randomization assignment, and empirical. Confidence intervals were estimated by bootstrapping (with 1000 replicates). Results: There were 173 participants in each crossover period (median age, 40 years [range, 16-86 years]; 140 [66%] men; 80 [37%] Asian and Pacific Islander, 43 [20%] Black, and 71 [33%] Hispanic individuals) evaluated with the model in the modified intention-to-treat analytic mode. The percentage of completed doses with in-person DOT was 87.2% (95% CI, 84.6%-89.9%) vs 89.8% (95% CI, 87.5%-92.1%) with electronic DOT. The percentage difference was -2.6% (95% CI, -4.8% to -0.3%), consistent with a conclusion of noninferiority. The 3 other analytic modes yielded equivalent conclusions, with percentage differences ranging from -4.9% to -1.9%. Conclusions and Relevance: In this trial, the percentage of completed doses under electronic DOT was noninferior to that under in-person DOT. This trial provides evidence supporting the efficacy of this digital adherence technology, and for the inclusion of electronic DOT in the standard of care. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03266003.
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Antituberculosos/uso terapéutico , Terapia por Observación Directa , Telemedicina/métodos , Cumplimiento y Adherencia al Tratamiento/estadística & datos numéricos , Tuberculosis Pulmonar/tratamiento farmacológico , Humanos , Ciudad de Nueva York , Resultado del Tratamiento , Tuberculosis/tratamiento farmacológico , Comunicación por Videoconferencia/estadística & datos numéricosRESUMEN
INTRODUCTION: Lung cancer is the most common cause of cancer deaths worldwide, accounting for 1.8 million deaths each year. Only 20% of lung cancer cases are reported to occur in low- and middle-income countries. An estimated 1.5% of all Ethiopian cancers involved the lung; however, no nationwide cancer registry exists in Ethiopia. Thus, accurate data on clinical history, histopathology, molecular characteristics, and risk factors for lung cancer are not available. The aim of this study was to describe the clinical, radiologic, and pathologic characteristics, including available molecular profiles, for lung cancer at Tikur Anbessa Specialized Hospital (TASH), the main tertiary referral center in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted at TASH among 146 patients with pathologically confirmed primary lung cancer, diagnosed from 2015 to 2019 and recorded in the Addis Ababa Cancer Registry at TASH. Clinical data were extracted from patient medical records, entered into a Research Electronic Data Capture database, and analyzed using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences statistical software. Variables collected included sociodemographics, personal exposures, comorbidities, clinical manifestations at presentation, chest imaging results, diagnostic procedures performed, histopathological classification, cancer staging, and type of treatment (if any). A subset of lung biopsies fixed in formalin for 2 to 7 days, which could be retrieved from the files of the Pathology Department of TASH, were reviewed, and molecular analysis was performed using next-generation sequencing to identify the tumor-oncogenic drivers. RESULTS: Among the 146 patients studied, the mean (SD) age was 54 plus or minus 13 years; 61.6% (n = 90) were male and 25.3% (n = 37) had a history of tobacco use. The most common clinical manifestations included cough (88.4%, n = 129), chest pain (60.3%, n = 88), and dyspnea (53.4%, n = 78). The median duration of any symptoms was 6 months (interquartile range: 3-12 mo). The most common radiologic features were lung mass (84.9%, n = 129) and pleural effusion (52.7%, n = 77). Adenocarcinoma accounted for 35.7% of lung cancers (n = 52) and squamous cell carcinoma 19.2% (n = 28) from those specimens was reported. Among patients on whom staging of lung cancer was documented, 92.2% (n = 95) of the subjects presented at advanced stages (stages III and IV). EGFR mutation, exons 19 and 20, was found in 7 of 14 tissue blocks analyzed. No specific risk factors were identified, possibly reflecting the relatively small sample size and limited exposures. CONCLUSIONS: There are marked differences in the presentation, risk factors, and molecular characteristics of lung cancer in Ethiopia as compared with other African and non-African countries. Adenocarcinoma was the most common histologic type of lung cancer detected in our study, similar to findings from other international studies. Nevertheless, compared with high-income countries, lung cancer in Ethiopia presents at a younger age, a later stage, and without considerable personal tobacco use. The relatively higher prevalence of EGFR mutation, from the limited molecular analyses, suggests that factors other than smoking history, such as exposure to biomass fuel, may be a more important risk factor. Country-specific screening guidelines and treatment protocols, in addition to a national tumor registry and greater molecular mutation analyses, are needed to improve prevention and management of lung cancer in Ethiopia.
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Objectives. To create a tool to rapidly determine where pandemic demand for critical care overwhelms county-level surge capacity and to compare public health and medical responses.Methods. In March 2020, COVID-19 cases requiring critical care were estimated using an adaptive metapopulation SEIR (susceptibleâexposedâinfectiousârecovered) model for all 3142 US counties for future 21-day and 42-day periods from April 2, 2020, to May 13, 2020, in 4 reactive patterns of contact reduction-0%, 20%, 30%, and 40%-and 4 surge response scenarios-very low, low, medium, and high.Results. In areas with increased demand, surge response measures could avert 104 120 additional deaths-55% through high clearance of critical care beds and 45% through measures such as greater ventilator access. The percentages of lives saved from high levels of contact reduction were 1.9 to 4.2 times greater than high levels of hospital surge response. Differences in projected versus actual COVID-19 demands were reasonably small over time.Conclusions. Nonpharmaceutical public health interventions had greater impact in minimizing preventable deaths during the pandemic than did hospital critical care surge response. Ready-to-go spatiotemporal supply and demand data visualization and analytics tools should be advanced for future preparedness and all-hazards disaster response.
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COVID-19/epidemiología , COVID-19/mortalidad , Cuidados Críticos , Necesidades y Demandas de Servicios de Salud , Hospitales , Análisis Espacial , Capacidad de Reacción , COVID-19/transmisión , HumanosRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: The surge of coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) hospitalizations in New York City required rapid discharges to maintain hospital capacity. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether lenient provisional discharge guidelines with remote monitoring after discharge resulted in safe discharges home for patients hospitalized with COVID-19 illness. DESIGN: Retrospective case series SETTING: Tertiary care medical center PATIENTS: Consecutive adult patients hospitalized with COVID-19 illness between March 26, 2020, and April 8, 2020, with a subset discharged home INTERVENTIONS: COVID-19 Discharge Care Program consisting of lenient provisional inpatient discharge criteria and option for daily telephone monitoring for up to 14 days after discharge MEASUREMENTS: Fourteen-day emergency department (ED) visits and hospital readmissions RESULTS: Among 812 patients with COVID-19 illness hospitalized during the study time period, 15.5% died prior to discharge, 24.1% remained hospitalized, 10.0% were discharged to another facility, and 50.4% were discharged home. Characteristics of the 409 patients discharged home were mean (SD) age 57.3 (16.6) years; 245 (59.9%) male; 27 (6.6%) with temperature ≥ 100.4 °F; and 154 (37.7%) with oxygen saturation < 95% on day of discharge. Over 14 days of follow-up, 45 patients (11.0%) returned to the ED, of whom 31 patients (7.6%) were readmitted. Compared to patients not referred, patients referred for remote monitoring had fewer ED visits (8.3% vs 14.1%; OR 0.60, 95% CI 0.31-1.15, p = 0.12) and readmissions (6.9% vs 8.3%; OR 1.15, 95% CI 0.52-2.52, p = 0.73). LIMITATIONS: Single-center study; assignment to remote monitoring was not randomized. CONCLUSIONS: During the COVID-19 surge in New York City, lenient discharge criteria in conjunction with remote monitoring after discharge were associated with a rate of early readmissions after COVID-related hospitalizations that was comparable to the rate of readmissions after other reasons for hospitalization before the COVID pandemic.
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COVID-19/epidemiología , COVID-19/terapia , Servicio de Urgencia en Hospital/estadística & datos numéricos , Alta del Paciente/estadística & datos numéricos , Readmisión del Paciente/estadística & datos numéricos , Adulto , Anciano , Femenino , Humanos , Tiempo de Internación/estadística & datos numéricos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Ciudad de Nueva York/epidemiología , Evaluación de Resultado en la Atención de Salud , Estudios Retrospectivos , Factores de Riesgo , Factores de TiempoAsunto(s)
Investigación Biomédica , COVID-19 , Difusión de la Información , Edición , Humanos , PandemiasRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: New York City (NYC) reported a higher pneumonia and influenza death rate than the rest of New York State during 2010-2014. Most NYC pneumonia and influenza deaths are attributed to pneumonia caused by infection acquired in the community, and these deaths typically occur in hospitals. METHODS: We identified hospitalizations of New York State residents aged ≥20 years discharged from New York State hospitals during 2010-2014 with a principal diagnosis of community-setting pneumonia or a secondary diagnosis of community-setting pneumonia if the principal diagnosis was respiratory failure or sepsis. We examined mean annual age-adjusted community-setting pneumonia-associated hospitalization (CSPAH) rates and proportion of CSPAH with in-hospital death, overall and by sociodemographic group, and produced a multivariable negative binomial model to assess hospitalization rate ratios. RESULTS: Compared with non-NYC urban, suburban, and rural areas of New York State, NYC had the highest mean annual age-adjusted CSPAH rate at 475.3 per 100,000 population and the highest percentage of CSPAH with in-hospital death at 13.7%. NYC also had the highest proportion of CSPAH patients residing in higher-poverty-level areas. Adjusting for age, sex, and area-based poverty, NYC residents experienced 1.3 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.2-1.4), non-NYC urban residents 1.4 (95% CI, 1.3-1.6), and suburban residents 1.2 (95% CI, 1.1-1.3) times the rate of CSPAH than rural residents. CONCLUSIONS: In New York State, NYC as well as other urban areas and suburban areas had higher rates of CSPAH than rural areas. Further research is needed into drivers of CSPAH deaths, which may be associated with poverty.
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Infecciones Comunitarias Adquiridas/virología , Hospitalización/estadística & datos numéricos , Gripe Humana/epidemiología , Neumonía/epidemiología , Adulto , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Infecciones Comunitarias Adquiridas/epidemiología , Infecciones Comunitarias Adquiridas/mortalidad , Femenino , Humanos , Gripe Humana/mortalidad , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Mortalidad , Ciudad de Nueva York/epidemiología , Neumonía/mortalidad , Pobreza , Población Rural/estadística & datos numéricos , Población Urbana/estadística & datos numéricos , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
Globally, non-communicable diseases are increasing in people living with HIV. Pulmonary hypertension is a rare non-communicable disease in people living with HIV with a reported prevalence of <1%. However, data on pulmonary hypertension in people living with HIV from Africa are scarce and are non-existent from Ethiopia. This study aimed to examine the prevalence and severity of echocardiographic pulmonary hypertension and risk factors associated with pulmonary hypertension in people living with HIV in Ethiopia. A total of 315 consecutive adult people living with HIV followed at the Tikur Anbessa Specialized Hospital HIV Referral Clinic were enrolled from June 2018 to February 2019. Those with established pulmonary hypertension of known causes were excluded. A structured questionnaire was used to collect data on demographics, respiratory symptoms, physical findings, physician-diagnosed lung disease, and possible risk factors. Pulmonary hypertension was defined by a tricuspid regurgitant velocity of ≥2.9 m/sec on transthoracic echocardiography. A tricuspid regurgitant velocity ≥3.5, which translates into a pulmonary arterial pressure/right ventricular systolic pressure of ≥50 mmHg, was considered moderate-to-severe pulmonary hypertension. The mean age of the participants was 44.5 ± 9.8 years and 229 (72.7%) were females. Pulmonary hypertension was diagnosed in 44 (14.0%) of participants, of whom 9 (20.5%) had moderate-to-severe disease. In those with pulmonary hypertension, 17 (38.6%) were symptomatic: exertional dyspnea, cough, and leg swelling were seen in 12 (27.3%), 9 (20.5%), and 4 (9.1%), respectively. There was no significant difference in those with pulmonary hypertension compared to those without the disease by gender, cigarette smoking, previous history of pulmonary tuberculosis treatment, physician-diagnosed chronic obstructive pulmonary disease or bronchial asthma, duration of anti-retroviral therapy therapy or anti-retroviral regimen type. Pulmonary hypertension looks to be a frequent complication in people living with HIV in Ethiopia and is often associated with significant cardiopulmonary symptoms. Further studies using right heart catheterization are needed to better determine the etiology and prevalence of pulmonary hypertension in people living with HIV in Ethiopia compared to other countries.
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BACKGROUND: We examined cytokine immune response profiles among contacts to tuberculosis patients to identify immunologic and epidemiologic correlates of tuberculosis. METHODS: We prospectively enrolled 1272 contacts of culture-confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis patients at 9 United States and Canadian sites. Epidemiologic characteristics were recorded. Blood was collected and stimulated with Mycobacterium tuberculosis culture filtrate protein, and tumor necrosis factor (TNF-α), interferon gamma (IFN-γ), and interleukin 10 (IL-10) concentrations were determined using immunoassays. RESULTS: Of 1272 contacts, 41 (3.2%) were diagnosed with tuberculosis before or < 30 days after blood collection (co-prevalent tuberculosis) and 19 (1.5%) during subsequent four-year follow-up (incident tuberculosis). Compared with contacts without tuberculosis, those with co-prevalent tuberculosis had higher median baseline TNF-α and IFN-γ concentrations (in pg/mL, TNF-α 129 versus 71, P < .01; IFN-γ 231 versus 27, P < .001), and those who subsequently developed incident tuberculosis had higher median baseline TNF-α concentrations (in pg/mL, 257 vs. 71, P < .05). In multivariate analysis, contact age < 15 years, US/Canadian birth, and IFN or TNF concentrations > the median were associated with co-prevalent tuberculosis (P < .01 for each); female sex (P = .03) and smoking (P < .01) were associated with incident tuberculosis. In algorithms combining young age, positive skin test results, and elevated CFPS TNF-α, IFN-γ, and IL-10 responses, the positive predictive values for co-prevalent and incident tuberculosis were 40 and 25%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Cytokine concentrations and epidemiologic factors at the time of contact investigation may predict co-prevalent and incident tuberculosis.