RESUMEN
For many diseases there are delays in diagnosis due to a lack of objective biomarkers for disease onset. Here, in 41,931 individuals from the United Kingdom Biobank Pharma Proteomics Project, we integrated measurements of ~3,000 plasma proteins with clinical information to derive sparse prediction models for the 10-year incidence of 218 common and rare diseases (81-6,038 cases). We then compared prediction models developed using proteomic data with models developed using either basic clinical information alone or clinical information combined with data from 37 clinical assays. The predictive performance of sparse models including as few as 5 to 20 proteins was superior to the performance of models developed using basic clinical information for 67 pathologically diverse diseases (median delta C-index = 0.07; range = 0.02-0.31). Sparse protein models further outperformed models developed using basic information combined with clinical assay data for 52 diseases, including multiple myeloma, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, motor neuron disease, pulmonary fibrosis and dilated cardiomyopathy. For multiple myeloma, single-cell RNA sequencing from bone marrow in newly diagnosed patients showed that four of the five predictor proteins were expressed specifically in plasma cells, consistent with the strong predictive power of these proteins. External replication of sparse protein models in the EPIC-Norfolk study showed good generalizability for prediction of the six diseases tested. These findings show that sparse plasma protein signatures, including both disease-specific proteins and protein predictors shared across several diseases, offer clinically useful prediction of common and rare diseases.
RESUMEN
Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is a heterogeneous disease that develops through diverse pathophysiological processes1,2 and molecular mechanisms that are often specific to cell type3,4. Here, to characterize the genetic contribution to these processes across ancestry groups, we aggregate genome-wide association study data from 2,535,601 individuals (39.7% not of European ancestry), including 428,452 cases of T2D. We identify 1,289 independent association signals at genome-wide significance (P < 5 × 10-8) that map to 611 loci, of which 145 loci are, to our knowledge, previously unreported. We define eight non-overlapping clusters of T2D signals that are characterized by distinct profiles of cardiometabolic trait associations. These clusters are differentially enriched for cell-type-specific regions of open chromatin, including pancreatic islets, adipocytes, endothelial cells and enteroendocrine cells. We build cluster-specific partitioned polygenic scores5 in a further 279,552 individuals of diverse ancestry, including 30,288 cases of T2D, and test their association with T2D-related vascular outcomes. Cluster-specific partitioned polygenic scores are associated with coronary artery disease, peripheral artery disease and end-stage diabetic nephropathy across ancestry groups, highlighting the importance of obesity-related processes in the development of vascular outcomes. Our findings show the value of integrating multi-ancestry genome-wide association study data with single-cell epigenomics to disentangle the aetiological heterogeneity that drives the development and progression of T2D. This might offer a route to optimize global access to genetically informed diabetes care.
