Drug Prices After Patent Expirations in High-Income Countries and Implications for Cost-Effectiveness Analyses.

Importance: Understanding how patent expirations affect drug prices is crucial because price changes directly inform accurate cost-effectiveness assessments. This study investigates the association between patent expirations and drug prices in 8 high-income countries and evaluates how the changes affect cost-effectiveness assessments. Objective: To analyze how the expiration of drug patents is associated with drug price changes and to assess the implications of these price changes for cost-effectiveness evaluations. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study performed an event study design using data from 8 high-income countries to assess the association between patent expiration and drug prices, and created a simulation model to understand the implications for cost-effectiveness analyses. The simulation cost-effectiveness model analyzed the implications of including or ignoring postpatent price dynamics. Exposure: Drug patent expiration. Main Outcomes and Measures: Change in drug prices and differences in incremental cost-effectiveness ratios when considering vs ignoring postpatent price dynamics. Results: The sample comprised 505 drugs undergoing patent expiration in Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Japan, Switzerland, UK, and US. Price decreases were statistically significant over the 8 years after patent expiration, with the fastest price declines observed in the US: 32% (95% CI, 24%-39%) in year 1 after patent expiration and 82% (95% CI, 71%-89%) in the 8 years after patent expiration. Estimates for other nations ranged from a decrease of 64% in Australia to 18% in Switzerland in the 8 years after expiration. The cost-effectiveness simulation model indicated that not accounting for generic entry into the market may produce biased incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of 40% to -40%, depending on the scenario. Conclusions and Relevance: The findings of this cohort study demonstrate that drug prices were reduced substantially after patent expirations in high-income countries. Therefore, incorporating information on patent status and pricing dynamics in cost-effectiveness assessment analyses is necessary for producing accurate economic evaluations of new drugs.

Screening for liver fibrosis: lessons from colorectal and lung cancer screening.

Many countries have incorporated population screening programmes for cancer, such as colorectal and lung cancer, into their health-care systems. Cirrhosis is more prevalent than colorectal cancer and has a comparable age-standardized mortality rate to lung cancer. Despite this fact, there are no screening programmes in place for early detection of liver fibrosis, the precursor of cirrhosis. In this Perspective, we use insights from colorectal and lung cancer screening to explore the benefits, challenges, implementation strategies and pathways for future liver fibrosis screening initiatives. Several non-invasive methods and referral pathways for early identification of liver fibrosis exist, but in addition to accurate detection, screening programmes must also be cost-effective and demonstrate benefit through a reduction in liver-related mortality. Randomized controlled trials are needed to confirm this. Future randomized screening trials should evaluate not only the screening tests, but also interventions used to halt disease progression in individuals identified through screening.

Patients on vitamin K treatment: is switching to direct-acting oral anticoagulation cost-effective? A target trial on a prospective cohort.

AIMS: Direct-acting oral anticoagulants (DOACs) have, to a substantial degree, replaced vitamin K antagonists (VKA) as treatments for stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients. However, evidence on the real-world causal effects of switching patients from VKA to DOAC is lacking. We aimed to assess the empirical incremental cost-effectiveness of switching patients to DOAC compared with maintaining VKA treatment. METHODS: The target trial approach was applied to the prospective observational Swiss-AF cohort, which enrolled 2415 AF patients from 2014 to 2017. Clinical data, healthcare resource utilisation and EQ-5D-based utilities representing quality of life were collected in yearly follow-ups. Health insurance claims were available for 1024 patients (42.4%). Overall survival, quality-of-life, costs from the Swiss statutory health insurance perspective and cost-effectiveness were estimated by emulating a target trial in which patients were randomly assigned to switch to DOAC or maintain VKA treatment. RESULTS: 228 patients switching from VKA to DOAC compared with 563 patients maintaining VKA treatment had no overall survival advantage over a 5-year observation period (HR 0.99, 95% CI 0.45, 1.55). The estimated gain in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) was 0.003 over the 5-year period at an incremental costs of CHF 23 033 (€ 20 940). The estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was CHF 425 852 (€ 387 138) per QALY gained. CONCLUSIONS: Applying a causal inference method to real-world data, we could not demonstrate switching to DOACs to be cost-effective for AF patients with at least 1 year of VKA treatment. Our estimates align with results from a previous randomised trial.

A discrete choice experiment on price and flavour effects on the appeal of nicotine products: a pilot study among young adults in Switzerland.

AIMS: To explore the effects of prices and flavour availability on the appeal of different tobacco and nicotine products, including conventional cigarettes, Electronic Nicotine Delivery Systems (ENDS) and Heated Tobacco Systems (HTS) among an adult population in Switzerland. METHODS: We performed a Discrete Choice Experiment among a group of Swiss aged ≥18 years via the online recruiting platform Prolific in a convenience sample. Our sample included both non-smokers and smokers. We used a within-subject, alternative-specific block design in a series of choice sets including different smoking products. We fixed the attributes of nicotine content (high or medium) and harmfulness (in years of life lost) for each product. Attributes of interest included price (ranging from CHF 5 to 25 in increments of 5) and flavour (fruity/menthol vs none/tobacco flavour). We performed a conditional logistic regression on the attributes' influence on the appeal of cigarettes, ENDS and HTS. RESULTS: A total of 108 out of 153 participants (n = 25 smokers and n = 83 non-smokers, completion rate = 71%) successfully completed our pilot survey experiment. We found that, in general, increasing the price of combustible cigarettes, ENDS and HTS by one standard deviation (around CHF 7) reduced their appeal by approximately 66% (relative risk [RR]: 0.34; 95% CI: 0.28-0.42). Unflavoured alternative nicotine products were found to be less appealing than flavoured products, especially for non-smokers, with a 86% decrease in appeal (RR: 0.14; 95% CI: 0.13-0.16). For non-smokers, an increase in price by one standard deviation was associated with a decrease in the appeal of any product by approximately 19% (RR: 0.81; 95% CI: 0.72-0.92). For smokers, the effect sizes were smaller, but overall, the appeal of all products decreased with increasing prices and reduced flavours. CONCLUSIONS: Our Discrete Choice Experiment suggests that, for the Swiss context, limiting the availability of flavours for alternative smoking products has the potential to reduce their appeal to non-smokers by 86% and that a small but significant increase in prices to CHF 15 for cigarettes, ENDS and HTS could lead to a major (around 66%) decrease in their appeal.