A nomogram incorporating treatment data for predicting overall survival in gastroenteropancreatic neuroendocrine tumors: a population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Over the last few decades, the annual global incidence of gastroenteropancreatic neuroendocrine tumours (GEP-NETs) has steadily increased. Because of the complex and inconsistent treatment of GEP-NETs, the prognosis of patients with GEP-NETs is still difficult to assess. The study aimed to construct and validate the nomograms included treatment data for prediction overall survival (OS) in GEP-NETs patients. METHODS: GEP-NETs patients determined from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-13 registry database (1992-2018) and with additional treatment data from the SEER-18 registry database (1975-2016). In order to select independent prognostic factors that contribute significantly to patient survival and can be included in the nomogram, multivariate Cox regression analysis was performed using the minimum value of Akaike information criterion (AIC) and we analyzed the relationship of variables with OS by calculating hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs. In addition, we also comprehensively compared the nomogram using to predict OS with the current 7th American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system. RESULTS: From 2004 to 2015, a total of 42 662 patients at diagnosis years with GEP-NETs were determined from the SEER database. The results indicated that the increasing incidence of GEP-NETs per year and the highest incidence is in patients aged 50-54. After removing cases lacking adequate clinicopathologic characteristics, the remaining eligible patients ( n =7564) were randomly divided into training (3782 patients) and testing sets (3782 patients). In the univariate analysis, sex, age, race, tumour location, SEER historic stage, pathology type, TNM, stage, surgery, radiation, chemotherapy, and CS tumour size were found to be significantly related to OS. Ultimately, the key factors for predicting OS were determined, involving sex, age, race, tumour location, SEER historic stage, M, N, grade, surgery, radiation, and chemotherapy. For internal validation, the C-index of the nomogram used to estimate OS in the training set was 0.816 (0.804-0.828). For external validation, the concordance index (C-index) of the nomogram used to predict OS was 0.822 (0.812-0.832). In the training and testing sets, our nomogram produced minimum AIC values and C-index of OS compared with AJCC stage. Decision curve analysis (DCA) indicated that the nomogram was better than the AJCC staging system because more clinical net benefits were obtained within a wider threshold probability range. CONCLUSION: A nomogram combined treatment data may be better discrimination in predicting overall survival than AJCC staging system. The authors highly recommend to use their nomogram to evaluate individual risks based on different clinical features of GEP-NETs, which can improve the diagnosis and treatment outcomes of GEP-NETs patients and improve their quality of life.

Profiling of a novel circadian clock-related prognostic signature and its role in immune function and response to molecular targeted therapy in pancreatic cancer.

BACKGROUND: Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PADA) represents a devastating type of pancreatic cancer with high mortality. Defining a prognostic gene signature that can stratify patients with different risk will benefit cancer treatment strategies. METHODS: Gene expression profiles of PADA patients were acquired from the Cancer Genome Atlas and Gene Expression Omnibus, including GSE62452 and GSE28735. Differential expression analysis was carried out using the package edgeR in R. Intro-tumor immune infiltrates were quantified by six different computational algorithms XCELL, TIMER, QUANTISEQ, MCPCOUNTER, EPIC, and CIBERSORT. Biological processes were investigated based on R package "clusterProfiler". RESULTS: 13 genes (ARNTL2, BHLHE40, FBXL17, FBXL8, PPP1CB, RBM4B, ADRB1, CCAR2, CDK1, CSNK1D, KLF10, PSPC1, SIAH2) were eligible for the development of a prognostic gene signature. Performance of the prognostic gene signature was assessed in the discovery set (n = 210), validation set (n = 52), and two external data set (GSE62452, n = 65, and GSE28735, n = 84). Area under the curve (AUC) for predicting 3-year overall survival was 0.727, 0.732, 0.700, and 0.658 in the training set, the validation set, and the two test sets, respectively. KM curve revealed that the low-risk group had an improved prognosis than the high-risk group in all four datasets. PCA analysis demonstrated that the low-risk group was apparently separated from the high-risk group. CD8 T cell and B cell were significantly reduced in the high-risk group than in the low-risk group, while neutrophils were significantly augmented in the high-risk group than in the low-risk group. BMS-536924, Foretinib, Linsitinib, and Sabutoclax were more sensitive in the low-risk group, whereas Erlotinib was more effective in the high-risk group. CONCLUSIONS: We successfully established and verified a novel circadian clock-related gene signature, which could stratify patients with different risk and be reflective of the therapeutic effect of molecular targeted therapy. Our findings could incorporate the pharmacological modulation of circadian clock into future therapeutic strategies.

Reduced Adenoma Miss Rate With 9-Minute vs 6-Minute Withdrawal Times for Screening Colonoscopy: A Multicenter Randomized Tandem Trial.

INTRODUCTION: Although the 9-minute mean withdrawal time (m-WT) is often reported to be associated with the optimal adenoma detection rate (ADR), no randomized trials of screening colonoscopy have confirmed the impact of a 9-minute m-WT on adenoma miss rate (AMR) and ADR. METHODS: A multicenter tandem trial was conducted in 11 centers. Seven hundred thirty-three asymptomatic participants were randomized to receive segmental tandem screening colonoscopy with a 9-minute withdrawal, followed by a 6-minute withdrawal (9-minute-first group, 9MF, n = 366) or vice versa (6-minute-first group, 6MF, n = 367). The primary outcome was the lesion-level AMR. RESULTS: The intention-to-treat analysis revealed that 9MF significantly reduced the lesion-level (14.5% vs 36.6%, P < 0.001) and participant-level AMR (10.9% vs 25.9%, P < 0.001), advanced adenoma miss rate (AAMR, 5.3% vs 46.9%, P = 0.002), multiple adenomas miss rate (20.7% vs 56.5%, P = 0.01), and high-risk adenomas miss rate (14.6% vs 39.5%, P = 0.01) of 6MF without compromising detection efficiency ( P = 0.79). In addition, a lower false-negative rate for adenomas ( P = 0.002) and high-risk adenomas ( P < 0.05), and a lower rate of shortening surveillance schedule ( P < 0.001) were also found in 9MF, accompanying with an improved ADR in the 9-minute vs 6-minute m-WT (42.3% vs 33.5%, P = 0.02). The independent inverse association between m-WT and AMR remained significant even after adjusting ADR, and meanwhile, 9-minute m-WT was identified as an independent protector for AMR and AAMR. DISCUSSION: In addition to increasing ADR, 9-minute m-WT also significantly reduces the AMR and AAMR of screening colonoscopy without compromising detection efficiency.

Rectal Indomethacin and Spraying of Duodenal Papilla With Epinephrine Increases Risk of Pancreatitis Following Endoscopic Retrograde Cholangiopancreatography.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Rectal indomethacin and spraying of the duodenal papilla with epinephrine might reduce the incidence of pancreatitis after endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP). We performed a randomized trial to compare the effects of the combination of indomethacin and epinephrine (IE) vs indomethacin plus saline (IS) in prophylaxis of post-ERCP pancreatitis (PEP). METHODS: We performed a double-blind trial at 10 centers in China, from February 2017 to October 2017, of 1158 patients with native papilla undergoing ERCP. The patients were assigned randomly to groups given IE (n = 576) or IS (n = 582). All patients received a single dose of rectal indomethacin within 30 minutes before ERCP; 20 mL of dilute epinephrine (IE group) or saline (IS group) then was sprayed on the duodenal papilla at the end of ERCP. The primary outcome was the incidence of overall PEP. Data were analyzed on an intention-to-treat principle. RESULTS: The study was terminated at the interim analysis for safety concerns and futility. The groups had similar baseline characteristics. PEP developed in 49 patients in the IE group (8.5%) and in 31 patients in the IS group (5.3%) (relative risk, 1.60, 95% CI, 1.03-2.47; P = .033). There were no significant differences between groups in proportions of patients with postsphincterotomy bleeding (2.1% in the IE group and 1.5% in the IS group) and biliary infection (1.2% in the IE group and 2.2% in the IS group). CONCLUSIONS: In a randomized trial, we found the combination of rectal indomethacin with papillary epinephrine spraying increased the risk of PEP compared with indomethacin alone. Spray epinephrine should not be used with rectal indomethacin for prevention of post-ERCP pancreatitis. ClincialTrials.gov no: NCT03057769.