The global burden of colorectal cancer attributable to high plasma glucose in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to estimate the burden of colorectal cancer (CRC) attributable to high plasma glucose from 1990 to 2019. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: Data on the disease burden were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease online database. Estimated average percentage change (EAPC) was used to quantify the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rate (ASDR) of high plasma glucose-related CRC trends by sex and location between 1990 and 2019. RESULTS: Globally, the death number and DALYs of CRC attributable to high plasma glucose remained a steady increase at global level from 1990 to 2019, and similar trends have been reported in age-standardized rate. The country with the largest number of death cases and DALYs of high plasma glucose-related CRC in 2019 was China, followed by the United States of America and India. Nearly three-quarters of total countries experienced an increase in the ASMR and ASDR, and the greatest increase of ASMR and ASDR was found in Uzbekistan (EAPC = 5.32) and Equatorial Guinea (EAPC = 4.65), respectively. A negative correlation was found between sociodemographic indices and the EAPC of ASMR and ASDR (rASMR = -0.259, p < 0.001; rASDR = -0.282, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: A significant increase in mortality and DALYs of CRC attributable to high plasma glucose was observed in global and most countries, especially in the developing countries. Public health policies and targeted programs are needed to reduce the burden of disease.

The Health Impact of MAFLD, a Novel Disease Cluster of NAFLD, Is Amplified by the Integrated Effect of Fatty Liver Disease-Related Genetic Variants.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) is a newly proposed disease category that derived from non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. The impact of MAFLD on health events has not been investigated. METHODS: UK Biobank participants were diagnosed for whether MAFLD presented at baseline. Five genetic variants (PNPLA3 rs738409 C/G, TM6SF2 rs58542926 C/T, GCKR rs1260326 T/C, MBOAT7 rs641738 C/T, and HSD17B13 rs72613567 T/TA) were integrated into a genetic risk score (GRS). Cox proportional hazard model was used to examine the association of MAFLD with incident diseases. RESULTS: A total of 160 979 (38.0%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 37.9%, 38.2%) participants out of 423 252 were diagnosed as MAFLD. Compared with participants without MAFLD, MAFLD cases had multivariate adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for liver cancer of 1.59 (95% CI, 1.28, 1.98), cirrhosis of 2.77 (2.29, 3.36), other liver diseases of 2.09 (1.95, 2.24), cardiovascular diseases of 1.39 (1.34, 1.44), renal diseases of 1.56 (1.48, 1.65), and cancers of 1.07 (1.05, 1.10). The impact of MAFLD, especially on hepatic events, was amplified by high GRS, of which the genetic variations in PNPLA3, TM6SF2, and MBOAT7 play the principal roles. MAFLD case with normal body weight is also associated with an increased risk of hepatic outcomes, but the genetic factor seems do not influence the risk in this subpopulation. CONCLUSIONS: MAFLD is independently associated with an increased risk of both intrahepatic and extrahepatic events. Fatty liver disease related genetic variants amplify the effect of MAFLD on disease outcomes.

Impact of exposure to noise on the risk of hypertension: A systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to synthesize available cohorts about the relationship between various types of noise and hypertension, and to explore the potential dose-response relationship between them in an updated meta-analysis. METHODS: PubMed and Embase were searched through October 2019 to identify cohort studies that met predetermined inclusion criteria. A random-effects model was used to combine the results of included studies. Dose-response meta-analysis was conducted to examine the potential dose-response relationship. RESULTS: Eleven cohort studies involving 224,829 participants were included in this systematic review. Pooled result showed that living or working in environment with noise exposure was significantly associated with increased risk of hypertension (RR: 1.18; 95% CI: 1.06 to 1.32), with low heterogeneity (P = 0.098, I2 = 42.1%). We found no evidence of a nonlinear association of elevated noise with hypertension risk (P = 0.443). The summary risk ratio of hypertension for an increment of per 10 dB(A) of noise was 1.13 (95% CI: 0.99 to 1.28), with moderate heterogeneity (P = 0.003, I2 = 72.1%). CONCLUSIONS: Integrated evidence from cohort studies supports the hypothesis that exposure to noise may be a risk factor of hypertension.

TCGA dataset screening for genes implicated in endometrial cancer using RNA-seq profiling.

The molecular basis of the mechanism and the potential biomarkers of endometrial cancer (EC) remain to be studied. In the present study, we hypothesized that the comprehensive characterization of transcriptional changes in EC could help achieve this aim. By taking advantage of RNA-seq data from The Cancer Genome Atlas, we determined the profile of differently expressed genes (DEGs) between EC tumor tissues and normal samples. On this basis, we performed Gene Ontology and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes pathways enrichment analyses. The interacting partners for each of the DEGs were explored and a protein-protein interaction network was constructed. Consequently, 10 hub genes were identified and their association with mortality in EC patients was investigated. The genes, AURKA, CENPA, and KIF2C, were found to be potential biomarkers for EC with a significant prognostic effect. Our work provided a basis for EC studies in both biological and clinical settings.

Non-invasive fibrosis markers are associated with mortality risk in both general populations and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease patients.

AIM: We assessed the correlations between non-invasive fibrosis scores and mortality in both the general population and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) patients. METHODS: We used data from the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 1988-2014. The NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS), Fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4) score, aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index (APRI) score, and Forns index score were calculated at baseline. The associations of these scores with the risk of mortality were determined using additive Cox proportional hazard models. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was used to study the predictive capacity of each scoring system. RESULTS: A total of 44 508 participants were included; among them, 9721 deaths occurred during a mean follow-up of 12.5 years. A "J"-shaped correlation pattern was observed for both the FIB-4 and APRI scores. A "U"-shaped correlation pattern was observed for both the Forns index and NFS. Similar correlation patterns were observed in 1955 NAFLD patients. For overall mortality, the AUROC values of the selected fibrosis scores were comparable between general population and NAFLD patients. The superior predictive capacity was found for FIB-4, with AUROC of 75.03% (95% confidence interval, 70.91% to 79.82%) in general population and 75.32% (95% confidence interval, 69.43% to 80.11%) in NAFLD patients, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Non-linear associations were shown between the fibrosis scoring systems and mortality risk. These scores could serve as indicators for mortality in people with or without NAFLD.

Early prediction of mortality risk among patients with severe COVID-19, using machine learning.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection, has been spreading globally. We aimed to develop a clinical model to predict the outcome of patients with severe COVID-19 infection early. METHODS: Demographic, clinical and first laboratory findings after admission of 183 patients with severe COVID-19 infection (115 survivors and 68 non-survivors from the Sino-French New City Branch of Tongji Hospital, Wuhan) were used to develop the predictive models. Machine learning approaches were used to select the features and predict the patients' outcomes. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was applied to compare the models' performance. A total of 64 with severe COVID-19 infection from the Optical Valley Branch of Tongji Hospital, Wuhan, were used to externally validate the final predictive model. RESULTS: The baseline characteristics and laboratory tests were significantly different between the survivors and non-survivors. Four variables (age, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein level, lymphocyte count and d-dimer level) were selected by all five models. Given the similar performance among the models, the logistic regression model was selected as the final predictive model because of its simplicity and interpretability. The AUROCs of the external validation sets were 0.881. The sensitivity and specificity were 0.839 and 0.794 for the validation set, when using a probability of death of 50% as the cutoff. Risk score based on the selected variables can be used to assess the mortality risk. The predictive model is available at [https://phenomics.fudan.edu.cn/risk_scores/]. CONCLUSIONS: Age, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein level, lymphocyte count and d-dimer level of COVID-19 patients at admission are informative for the patients' outcomes.

Disease burden of viral hepatitis A, B, C and E: A systematic analysis.

Viral hepatitis has been recognized as a leading cause of deaths worldwide. We aimed to analyse the disease burden of viral hepatitis at the global, regional and national levels. We collected the data of death number, mortality rate, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of viral hepatitis by sex, age, geography and type of disease from the Global Health Data Exchange platform. Estimated average percentage change (EAPC) was used to quantify the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of viral hepatitis between 1990 and 2017. Globally, the number of deaths from viral hepatitis increased from 980.9 thousand in 1990 to 1412.3 thousand in 2017, accompanying by the DALYs increased from 35.2 million to 43.1 million in the same period. Hepatitis B and C accounted for 97.6% of total viral hepatitis-related deaths worldwide in 2017. While the death number and DALYs were decreased in acute hepatitis A, B, C and E, a significant increase was found in liver cancer and cirrhosis due to hepatitis B and C. The ASMRs of liver cancer and cirrhosis caused by hepatitis B and C were decreased at the global level and in most regions. However, a significant increase was observed in several developed countries, such as the USA and the UK. The disease burden of viral hepatitis continues to increase worldwide, which was driven by the increase in burden of chronic hepatitis B and C.

Incidence and mortality of ovarian cancer at the global, regional, and national levels, 1990-2017.

BACKGROUND: Ovarian cancer (OC) is a commonly diagnosed gynecologic cancer. Knowing the incidence and mortality rates of OC is critical to understanding the disease burden and updating prevention strategies. METHODS: We retrieved the age-standardized incidence and mortality rates (ASIR and ASMR, respectively) of OC from the Global Burden of Disease study online database. Estimated average percentage change (EAPC) was used to quantify the trends of OC incidence and mortality from 1990 to 2017. RESULTS: Worldwide, the number of incident cases and deaths from OC increased from 152.1 and 95.5 thousand in 1990 to 286.1 and 176.0 thousand in 2017, respectively. Both the ASIR and ASMR decreased slightly during the study period (EAPC = -0.10, 95% CI, -0.16, -0.03; EAPC = -0.32, 95% CI, -0.38, -0.27). The greatest decreases of ASIR and ASMR were observed in Western Europe (EAPC = -1.22, 95% CI, -1.31, -1.14; EAPC = -1.31, 95% CI, -1.37, -1.25). A total of 137, 10, and 48 countries or territories experienced an increase, remained stable, and experienced a decrease in OC ASIR, respectively, between 1990 and 2017. For ASMR, a total of 129, 9, and 57 countries or territories experienced an increase, remained stable, and experienced a decrease, respectively, during the same period. The greatest increases in the ASIR and the ASMR were found in countries located in the Caribbean and Latin America. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence and mortality of OC significantly decreased in developed countries. However, remarkable increases were observed in more than two-thirds of all countries, suggesting that OC will be more frequently diagnosed in developing countries.

Leukemia incidence trends at the global, regional, and national level between 1990 and 2017.

BACKGROUND: Leukemias are a group of life-threatening malignant disorders of the blood and bone marrow. The incidence of leukemia varies by pathological types and among different populations. METHODS: We retrieved the incidence data for leukemia by sex, age, location, calendar year, and type from the Global Burden of Disease online database. The estimated average percentage change (EAPC) was used to quantify the trends of the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of leukemia from 1990 to 2017. RESULTS: Globally, while the number of newly diagnosed leukemia cases increased from 354.5 thousand in 1990 to 518.5 thousand in 2017, the ASIR decreased by 0.43% per year. The number of acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) cases worldwide increased from 49.1 thousand in 1990 to 64.2 thousand in 2017, whereas the ASIR experienced a decrease (EAPC = - 0.08, 95% CI - 0.15, - 0.02). Between 1990 and 2017, there were 55, 29, and 111 countries or territories that experienced a significant increase, remained stable, and experienced a significant decrease in ASIR of ALL, respectively. The case of chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) has increased more than twice between 1990 and 2017. The ASIR of CLL increased by 0.46% per year from 1990 to 2017. More than 85% of all countries saw an increase in ASIR of CLL. In 1990, acute myeloid leukemia (AML) accounted for 18.0% of the total leukemia cases worldwide. This proportion increased to 23.1% in 2017. The ASIR of AML increased from 1.35/100,000 to 1.54/100,000, with an EAPC of 0.56 (95% CI 0.49, 0.62). A total of 127 countries or territories experienced a significant increase in the ASIR of AML. The number of chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) cases increased from 31.8 thousand in 1990 to 34.2 thousand in 2017. The ASIR of CML decreased from 0.75/100,000 to 0.43/100,000. A total of 141 countries or territories saw a decrease in ASIR of CML. CONCLUSIONS: A significant decrease in leukemia incidence was observed between 1990 and 2017. However, in the same period, the incidence rates of AML and CLL significantly increased in most countries, suggesting that both types of leukemia might become a major global public health concern.

Trends and projections of kidney cancer incidence at the global and national levels, 1990-2030: a Bayesian age-period-cohort modeling study.

BACKGROUND: Identifying the temporal trends of kidney cancer (KC) incidence in both the past and the future at the global and national levels is critical for KC prevention. METHODS: We retrieved annual KC case data between 1990 and 2017 from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) online database. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) was used to quantify the temporal trends of KC age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) from 1990 to 2017. Bayesian age-period-cohort models were used to predict KC incidence through 2030. RESULTS: Worldwide, the number of newly diagnosed KC cases increased from 207.3 thousand in 1990 to 393.0 thousand in 2017. The KC ASR increased from 4.72 per 100,000 to 4.94 per 100,000 during the same period. Between 2018 and 2030, the number of KC cases is projected to increase further to 475.4 thousand (95% highest density interval [HDI] 423.9, 526.9). The KC ASR is predicted to decrease slightly to 4.46 per 100,000 (95% HDI 4.06, 4.86). A total of 90, 2, and 80 countries or territories are projected to experience increases, remain stable, and experience decreases in KC ASR between 2018 and 2030, respectively. In most developed countries, the KC incidence is forecasted to decrease irrespective of past trends. In most developing countries, the KC incidence is predicted to increase persistently through 2030. CONCLUSIONS: KC incidence is predicted to decrease in the next decade, and this predicted decrease is mainly driven by the decreases in developed countries. More attention should be placed on developing countries.

Prognosis of colorectal cancer patients is associated with the novel log odds of positive lymph nodes scheme: derivation and external validation.

Background and aim: To construct proper and externally validate cut-off points for log odds of positive lymph nodes scheme (LODDS) staging scheme in colorectal cancer (CRC). Patients and methods: The X-tile approach was used to find the cut-off points for the novel LODDS staging scheme in 240,898 patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database and externally validated in 1,878 from the international multicenter cohort. Kaplan-Meier plot and multivariate Cox proportional hazard models were performed to investigate the role of the novel LODDS classification. Results: The prognostic cut-off values were determined as -2.18, and -0.23 (P< 0.001). Patients had 5-year cancer-specific survival rates of 83.8%, 57.4% and 24.4% with increasing LODDS (P< 0.001) in the SEER database. Five-year overall survival rates were 77.2%, 55.0% and 26.7% with increasing LODDS (P< 0.001) in the external international multicenter cohort. Multivariate survival analysis identified both the LODDS classification, the patient's age, the T category, the M status, and the tumor grade as independent prognostic factors in both two independent databases. The analyses of the subgroup of patients stratified by tumor location (colon or rectum), number of retrieved lymph node (< 12 or ≥ 12), TNM stage III, lymph node-negative also confirmed the LODDS as independent prognostic factors (P< 0.001) in both two independent databases. Conclusions: The novel LODDS classification was an independent prognostic factor for patients with CRCs and should be calculated for additional risk group stratification with pN scheme.

International incidence trends in early- and late-onset colorectal cancer: a population-based study.

PURPOSE: Knowing the global incidence of colorectal cancer (CRC), by sex and age of onset, is of great importance for understanding the disease burden of CRC. METHODS: The CRC incidence data, by cancer site, age of onset, sex, country, and year, were retrieved from the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Vol. Plus database. Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC) were calculated to quantify the temporal trends in the CRC age-standardized incidence rate. RESULTS: Globally, the incidence of late-onset CRC was heterogeneous and remained increasing in most countries. The highest incidence of late-onset colon and rectal cancer was both found in males in Slovakia (156.5/100,000 and 121.5/100,000, respectively). The most pronounced increases were mostly observed in developing countries, such as Brazil (colon cancer: EAPC = 5.87, 95% CI 3.18, 8.63; rectal cancer: EAPC = 4.68; 95% CI 2.78, 6.62). The highest incidence of early-onset colon and rectal cancer was found in females in Switzerland (4.2/100,000) and in males in South Korea (4.6/100,000), respectively. The incidences of early-onset CRC were increased in parts of countries, including countries experiencing a decline in late-onset CRC incidence, such as the USA, Germany, and Australia. The temporal trends of colon cancer were mostly aligned with those of rectal in most countries, independent of sex and age of onset. CONCLUSION: The increase of early-onset CRC incidence suggests more prevention initiatives are urgently warranted for young adults in the near future. Targeted and effective prevention measures are still needed among elderly populations.

Geographical variations in cardiovascular health in China: A nationwide population-based survey of 74,726 adults.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death in China. The aim of this study was to evaluate the levels of cardiovascular health among Chinese adults and to understand the geographic pattern of cardiovascular health. METHODS: In 2015, a total of 74,726 respondents aged ≥ 20 years with no history of cardiovascular disease were randomly sampled from 298 counties/districts of 31 provinces in mainland China and were interviewed. Seven metrics, including smoking, body mass index, physical activity, diet, total cholesterol, blood pressure, and fasting glucose, were determined. Ideal cardiovascular health was defined as the simultaneous presence of all metrics at the ideal level. A score ranging from 0 to 14 was calculated as the sum of all seven metrics for each province. Scores for cardiovascular health behaviors (smoking, body mass index, physical activity and diet) and those for cardiovascular health factors (smoking, total cholesterol, blood pressure, and fasting glucose) were also calculated. FINDINGS: The mean age was 44.4 ± 15.9 years, and 49.3% were women. The age-sex-standardized prevalence of ideal cardiovascular health was universally poor, ranging from 0.02% [95% confidence interval (CI): 0%, 0.05%] in Tibet to 2.76% (95% CI: 0.45%, 5.07%) in Heilongjiang. Ideal diet (7.1%) was the least common factor of the seven metrics in each province and varied considerably across provinces. Other component metrics of ideal cardiovascular health were also spatially patterned. In all provinces, women had higher scores than men for cardiovascular health, health behaviors and health factors. Differences in cardiovascular health and health behavior scores between urban and rural areas were associated with levels of socio-economic development. INTERPRETATION: Strategies for addressing poor cardiovascular health require geographic targeting and localized consideration. FUNDING: This research was supported by National Key R&D Program, the Shenzhen Strategic Emerging Industry Development Special Fund, and the Fund of "Sanming" Project of Medicine in Shenzhen.

Willingness and obstacles of healthcare professionals to perform bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation in China.

BACKGROUND: Bystander CPR (B-CPR) is crucial to increase survival of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA), and this study is performed to assess the willingness and obstacles of Chinese healthcare professionals (HCPs) to perform B-CPR on strangers, as well as the factors associated with the willingness. METHODS: An internet-based questionnaire surveying demographic information, CPR training, CPR knowledge, willingness, and obstacles to perform B-CPR among 10,393 HCPs. A multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate the factors associated with the willingness. RESULTS: Here, 73.9% of HCPs were willing to perform B-CPR on strangers in China. The factors associated with the willingness were as follows: female, senior, working in Third-class hospitals, working in Pre-hospital emergency and Cardiology or Cardiac surgery, receiving current training, having adequate CPR knowledge. The main obstacles were fear of infection via mouth-to-mouth ventilations (MMV), fear of being blackmailed and fear of legal liability. CONCLUSION: About three quarters of HCPs are willing to perform B-CPR. Female HCPs, those who have more CPR experience, adequate knowledge, and recent training are more likely to perform B-CPR. Reform of the legal and credit system are needed, and recommendation of hands-only CPR is a possibility to encourage HCPs to perform B-CPR on strangers.

Analysis of loss to follow-up in 4099 multidrug-resistant pulmonary tuberculosis patients.

Loss to follow-up (LFU) of ≥2 consecutive months contributes to the poor levels of treatment success in multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) reported by TB programmes. We explored the timing of when LFU occurs by month of MDR-TB treatment and identified patient-level risk factors associated with LFU.We analysed a dataset of individual MDR-TB patient data (4099 patients from 22 countries). We used Kaplan-Meier survival curves to plot time to LFU and a Cox proportional hazards model to explore the association of potential risk factors with LFU.Around one-sixth (n=702) of patients were recorded as LFU. Median (interquartile range) time to LFU was 7 (3-11) months. The majority of LFU occurred in the initial phase of treatment (75% in the first 11 months). Major risk factors associated with LFU were: age 36-50 years (HR 1.3, 95% CI 1.0-1.6; p=0.04) compared with age 0-25 years, being HIV positive (HR 1.8, 95% CI 1.2-2.7; p<0.01) compared with HIV negative, on an individualised treatment regimen (HR 0.7, 95% CI 0.6-1.0; p=0.03) compared with a standardised regimen and a recorded serious adverse event (HR 0.5, 95% CI 0.4-0.6; p<0.01) compared with no serious adverse event.Both patient- and regimen-related factors were associated with LFU, which may guide interventions to improve treatment adherence, particularly in the first 11 months.

Disparities in Cancer Incidence among Chinese Population versus Migrants to Developed Regions: A Population-Based Comparative Study.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of cancer was determined by genetic and environmental factors and varied across the world. The discrepancies in cancer profile among Chinese people living in different regions remained obscure. METHODS: Chinese people living in urban Shanghai, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Macau, Singapore, and Los Angeles were included in this study. The cancer case data and population data were collected from either the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Plus database or the regional cancer registry. A rate model was applied to examine the regional differences in cancer risk with Shanghai set as the reference. RESULTS: From 1983 to 2013, the cancer profiles in most regions were changed. Significant differences in cancer incidence, by sex, period, and age, were detected across regions. The most pronounced disparities were found between Shanghai people and American Chinese in Los Angeles. For cancer site, the most significant differences were detected in prostate, gastrointestinal, gynecologic, oral cavity and pharynx, and brain and central nervous system (CNS) cancers. Specifically, Shanghai was significantly higher in stomach, liver, esophageal, pancreatic, and brain and CNS cancers, while lower in colon, prostate, breast, cervical, and oral cavity and pharynx cancers compared with the other five populations. CONCLUSIONS: Cancer profile was distinct across Chinese populations, which shared a similar genetic background but lived in different regions. The disparities indicate that cancer development was majorly determined by environmental factors, and suggests that region-tailored cancer prevention strategies were warranted. IMPACT: The cancer patterns in populations sharing the same genetic background were significantly influenced by different living conditions.

Changing epidemiological patterns of HIV and AIDS in China in the post-SARS era identified by the nationwide surveillance system.

BACKGROUND: China has made substantial progress in tackling its HIV and AIDS epidemic. But the changing patterns of HIV and AIDS incidence based on the longitudinal observation data were rarely studied. METHODS: The reporting incidence (RI) and mortality data on HIV and AIDS in China covering 31 provinces from 2004 to 2014 were collected from the Chinese Public Health Science Data Center. To decompose the time-series data, Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) was applied to properly describe the trends of HIV and AIDS incidence. A mathematical model was used to estimate the relative change of incidence among provinces and age groups. RESULTS: A total of 483,010 newly HIV infections and 214,205 AIDS cases were reported between 2004 and 2014 nationwide. HIV infection increased from 13,258 in 2004 (RI 1.02 per 100,000 person years) to 74,048 in 2014 (RI 5.46 per 100,000). The number of AIDS cases increased from 3054 in 2004 (RI 0.23 per 100,000) to 45,145 in 2014 (RI 3.33 per 100,000). The overall relative changes for HIV infection and AIDS incidence were 1.11 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.10-1.13) and 1.28 (95% CI 1.23-1.33), respectively. The relative increase for HIV and AIDS RI was higher in northwest provinces while lower in Henan, Xinjiang, Guangxi and Yunnan. The overall relative changes for HIV infection were 1.12 (95% CI 1.11-1.14) in males and 1.10 (95% CI 1.06-1.13) in females. For AIDS RI, the relative increases were 1.31 (95% CI 1.26-1.36) in males and 1.22 (95% CI 1.17-1.28) in females. The lowest relative increase was detected among young adults, while the largest relative increase (odds ratio [OR] > 1.30) was detected in people aged 55 years or above. CONCLUSIONS: HIV and AIDS showed an increasing trend in China from 2004 to 2014, respectively, but the epidemic tended to be under control among provinces and young people that used to have a high HIV and AIDS incidence. Northwest China and older people could be new "hop-spots" for HIV and AIDS risk.

Factors associated with door-in to door-out delays among ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients transferred for primary percutaneous coronary intervention: a population-based cohort study in Ontario, Canada.

BACKGROUND: Compared to ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients who present at centres with catheterization facilities, those transferred for primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) have substantially longer door-in to door-out (DIDO) times, where DIDO is defined as the time interval from arrival at a non-PCI hospital, to transfer to a PCI hospital. We aimed to identify potentially modifiable factors to improve DIDO times in Ontario, Canada and to assess the impact of DIDO times on 30-day mortality. METHODS: A population-based, retrospective cohort study of 966 STEMI patients transferred for primary PCI in Ontario in 2012 was conducted. Baseline factors were examined across timely DIDO status. Multivariate logistic regression was used to examine independent predictors of timely DIDO as well as the association between DIDO times and 30-day mortality. RESULTS: The median DIDO time was 55 min, with 20.1% of patients achieving the recommended DIDO benchmark of ≤30 min. Age (OR> 75 vs 18-55 0.30, 95% CI: 0.16-0.56), symptom-to-first medical contact (FMC) time (OR61-120mins vs < 60mins 0.60, 95% CI: 0.39-0.90; OR>120mins vs < 60mins 0.53, 95% CI:0.35-0.81) and emergency medical services transport with a pre-hospital electrocardiogram (ECG) (OREMS transport + ECG vs self-transport 2.63, 95% CI:1.59-4.35) were the strongest predictors of timely DIDO. Patients with timely ECG were more likely to have recommended DIDO times (33.0% vs 12.3%; P < 0.001). A significantly higher proportion of those who met the DIDO benchmark had timely FMC-to-balloon times (78.7% vs 27.4%; P < 0.001). Compared to patients with DIDO time ≤ 30 min, those with DIDO times > 90 min had significantly higher adjusted 30-day mortality rates (OR 2.82, 95% CI:1.10-7.19). CONCLUSIONS: While benchmark DIDO times were still rarely achieved in the province, we identified several potentially modifiable factors in the STEMI system that might be targeted to improve DIDO times. Our findings that patients who received a pre-hospital ECG were still being transferred to non-PCI capable centres suggest strategies addressing this gap may improve patient outcomes.

The trends and projections in the incidence and mortality of liver cancer in urban Shanghai: a population-based study from 1973 to 2020.

BACKGROUND: In 2012, liver cancer ranked as the fifth and eighth most common cancer in men and women, respectively, in urban Shanghai. This study aims to present the trend and projection of age-specific incidence and mortality of liver cancer in Shanghai. METHODS: We extracted data of liver cancer incident cases and deaths between 1973 and 2012. An age-period-cohort model was used to analyze the data. RESULTS: A total of 47,344 men and 18,692 women were diagnosed with liver cancer from 1973 to 2012. The overall age-standardized incidence was 26.89 and 8.89 per 100,000 for men and women, respectively. Correspondingly, a total of 44,355 and 18,084 men and women died from liver cancer during this period. The overall age-standardized death rate was 25.34 per 100,000 in men and 9.39 per 100,000 in women. Between 1973 and 2012, liver cancer incidence and mortality in all age groups, except people aged 0-19 years, experienced a significant decline. Similar temporal patterns were detected in liver cancer mortality in both sexes when compared with incidence. Liver cancer incidence and mortality are expected to further decline among all age groups in 2013-2020 in both sexes, though the numbers of incident cases will remain stable. CONCLUSION: Incidence and mortality of liver cancer in urban Shanghai have decreased by about 40% and 50%, respectively, over the past four decades. This decline is expected to continue in the near future. However, the population is aging, which is reflected in the increasing crude rates and decreasing age-adjusted rates.

Author Correction: The effect of body mass index and physical activity on hypertension among Chinese middle-aged and older population.

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