Development and Validation of a Predictive Model for Intracranial Haemorrhage in Patients on Direct Oral Anticoagulants.

BACKGROUND: Intracranial haemorrhage (ICH) poses a significant threat to patients on Direct Oral Anticoagulants (DOACs), with existing risk scores inadequately predicting ICH risk in these patients. We aim to develop and validate a predictive model for ICH risk in DOAC-treated patients. METHODS: 24,794 patients treated with a DOAC were identified in a province-wide electronic medical and health data platform in Tianjin, China. The cohort was randomly split into a 4:1 ratio for model development and validation. We utilized forward stepwise selection, Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO), and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) to select predictors. Model performance was compared using the area under the curve (AUC) and net reclassification index (NRI). The optimal model was stratified and compared with the DOAC model. RESULTS: The median age is 68.0 years, and 50.4% of participants are male. The XGBoost model, incorporating six independent factors (history of hemorrhagic stroke, peripheral artery disease, venous thromboembolism, hypertension, age, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels), demonstrated superior performance in the development dateset. It showed moderate discrimination (AUC: 0.68, 95% CI: 0.64-0.73), outperforming existing DOAC scores (ΔAUC = 0.063, P = 0.003; NRI = 0.374, P < 0.001). Risk categories significantly stratified ICH risk (low risk: 0.26%, moderate risk: 0.74%, high risk: 5.51%). Finally, the model demonstrated consistent predictive performance in the internal validation. CONCLUSION: In a real-world Chinese population using DOAC therapy, this study presents a reliable predictive model for ICH risk. The XGBoost model, integrating six key risk factors, offers a valuable tool for individualized risk assessment in the context of oral anticoagulation therapy.

Impact of Net Atrioventricular Compliance on Mitral Valve Area Assessment-A Perspective Considering Three-Dimensional Mitral Valve Area by Transesophageal Echocardiography.

BACKGROUND: Net atrioventricular compliance (Cn) can affect the accuracy of mitral valve area (MVA) assessment. We assessed how different methods of MVA assessment are affected by Cn, and if patients with abnormal Cn may be identified by clinical and/or echocardiographic parameters. METHODS: We studied 244 patients with rheumatic MS. The concordance between mitral valve area (MVA) by 2D planimetry, pressure half-time (PHT), continuity equation (CE), Yeo's index, and 3-dimensional mitral valve area assessed by transesophageal echocardiography (TEE 3DMVA) in patients with normal and abnormal Cn (Cn ≤ 4 mL/mmHg) were evaluated in the 110 patients with both transesophageal echocardiogram (TEE) and transthoracic echocardiogram (TTE). Variables that were associated with abnormal Cn were validated in the remaining 134 patients with only TTE. RESULTS: Except for MVA by CE, concordance with TEE 3DMVA was poorer for all other methods of MVA assessment in patients with abnormal Cn. But, the difference in concordance was only statistically significant for MVA by PHT. Patients with MVA ≤ 1.5 cm2 by 2D planimetry and PHT ≤ 130 ms were likely to have an abnormal Cn. (specificity 98.5%). This finding was validated in the remaining 134 patients (specificity 93%). CONCLUSIONS: MVA assessment by PHT is significantly affected by Cn. Abnormal Cn should be suspected when 2D planimetry MVA is ≤1.5 cm2 together with an inappropriately short PHT that is ≤130 ms. In this scenario, MVA by PHT is inaccurate.

Clinical predictors and outcomes of ST-elevation myocardial infarction related cardiogenic shock in the Asian population.

Background: Cardiogenic shock (CS) complicating myocardial infarction is associated with poor outcomes. Data among Asian populations are scarce. We aimed to investigate the long-term outcomes, prognostic factors, and predictors of CS among Asian ST elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients. Methods: This was a retrospective cohort study of consecutive patients undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI) for STEMI within our regional STEMI network between 2015 and 2019. The long-term outcomes of those with and without CS were compared. Clinical predictors of outcomes and development of CS were investigated. Results: A total of 1791 patients who underwent PPCI were included. Patients completed at least 2 years' follow-up with a median follow-up period of 2.6 years (IQR 1.0, 3,9). Overall, 208/1791 (11.6 %) STEMI patients developed CS. These patients were older (61.1 ± 12.5 vs 57.8 ± 12.2, P < 0.001) and mostly men (87.0 %). All-cause mortality (59.9 % vs 4.7 % P < 0.001), cardiac mortality (43.8 % vs 2.2 %, P < 0.001) and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) was significantly higher in the CS group (59.1 % vs 14.0 %, P < 0.001). Independent predictors of survival were higher index LVEF (adjusted hazards ratio [aHR] 0.967, 95 %CI 0.951-0.984, p < 0.001) and higher arterial pH at onset of shock (aHR 0.750, 0.626-0.897, p = 0.002). Increased serum lactate concentration independently predicts poor prognosis (aHR 1.084, 95 % CI 1.046-1.124, p < 0.001). Conclusion: In Asian STEMI patients who underwent PPCI, CS was associated with poor outcomes. Higher LVEF on index admission was associated with better outcomes; while lactic acidosis independently predicted mortality.

Contemporary Incidence of Cognitive Impairment or Dementia in Patients undergoing Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Despite the high prevalence of cognitive impairment or dementia post coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), the incidence of cognitive impairment or dementia post-CABG in contemporary practice is currently unclear. Therefore, this paper aims to investigate the incidence and associated risk factors of cognitive impairment or dementia in patients post-CABG. METHODS: A systematic search across three databases (PubMed, SCOPUS and Embase) was conducted for studies published in or after 2013 that reported cognitive impairment or dementia post-CABG. Subgroup analyses and meta-regression by risk factors were performed to determine their influence on the results. RESULTS: This analysis included 23 studies with a total of 2620 patients. The incidence of cognitive impairment or dementia less than one month, two to six months, and more than twelve months post-CABG was 35.96% (95%CI: 28.22-44.51, I2=87%), 21.33% (95%CI: 13.44-32.15, I2=88%) and 39.13% (95%CI: 21.72-58.84, I2=84%), respectively. Meta-regression revealed that studies with more than 80% of the cohort diagnosed with hypertension were significantly associated with incidence of cognitive impairment or dementia less than one-month post-CABG. CONCLUSION: This meta-analysis demonstrates a high incidence of cognitive impairment or dementia in patients post-CABG in contemporary practice, particularly less than one month post-CABG. We found that hypertension was a significant risk factor in the short term (less than one month) follow-up period for cognitive impairment or dementia post-CABG. Future research should be done to assess strategies to reduce cognitive impairment post-CABG. .

Incidence and Outcomes of Cardiocerebral Infarction: A Cohort Study of 2 National Population-Based Registries.

BACKGROUND: Cardiocerebral infarction (CCI), which is concomitant with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and acute ischemic stroke (AIS), is a rare but severe presentation. However, there are few data on CCI, and the treatment options are uncertain. We investigated the characteristics and outcomes of CCI compared with AMI or AIS alone. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study of 120 531 patients with AMI and AIS from the national stroke and AMI registries in Singapore. Patients were categorized into AMI only, AIS only, synchronous CCI (same-day), and metachronous CCI (within 1 week). The primary outcome was all-cause mortality, and the secondary outcome was cardiovascular mortality. The mortality risks were compared using Cox regression. Multivariable models were adjusted for baseline demographics, clinical variables, and treatment for AMI or AIS. RESULTS: Of 127 919 patients identified, 120 531 (94.2%) were included; 74 219 (61.6%) patients had AMI only, 44 721 (37.1%) had AIS only, 625 (0.5%) had synchronous CCI, and 966 (0.8%) had metachronous CCI. The mean age was 67.7 (SD, 14.0) years. Synchronous and metachronous CCI had a higher risk of 30-day mortality (synchronous: adjusted HR [aHR], 2.41 [95% CI, 1.77-3.28]; metachronous: aHR, 2.80 [95% CI, 2.11-3.73]) than AMI only and AIS only (synchronous: aHR, 2.90 [95% CI, 1.87-4.51]; metachronous: aHR, 4.36 [95% CI, 3.03-6.27]). The risk of cardiovascular mortality was higher in synchronous and metachronous CCI than AMI (synchronous: aHR, 3.03 [95% CI, 2.15-4.28]; metachronous: aHR, 3.41 [95% CI, 2.50-4.65]) or AIS only (synchronous: aHR, 2.58 [95% CI, 1.52-4.36]; metachronous: aHR, 4.52 [95% CI, 2.95-6.92]). In synchronous CCI, AMI was less likely to be managed with PCI and secondary prevention medications (P<0.001) compared with AMI only. CONCLUSIONS: Synchronous CCI occurred in 1 in 200 cases of AIS and AMI. Synchronous and metachronous CCI had higher mortality than AMI or AIS alone.

Combining 2D Planimetry and Yeo's Index Can Help Accurately Identify Patients with Severe Rheumatic Mitral Stenosis-A Perspective from a 3D Assessment Using Transoesophageal Echocardiography.

BACKGROUND: Yeo's index is a novel measure of the severity of rheumatic mitral valve stenosis (MS). It is derived from the product of the mitral leaflet separation index and dimensionless index. This study aims to validate Yeo's index using a transesophageal echocardiogram (TEE) three-dimensional (3D) mitral valve area (MVA) as a comparator and to compare the concordance of existing echocardiographic measures of the MVA with TEE 3DMVA. METHODS AND RESULTS: We studied 111 patients with rheumatic MS who underwent both transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) and a TEE assessment of MS severity. Yeo's index, the MVA determined by 2D planimetry, pressure half-time (PHT) and continuity equation (CE) measured on TTE were compared with the TEE 3DMVA. With a linear correlation, Yeo's index showed the best correlation with TEE 3DMVA (r2 = 0.775), followed by 2D planimetry (r2 = 0.687), CE (r2 = 0.598) and PHT (r2 = 0.363). Using TEE 3DMVA as comparator, Yeo's index (ρc = 0.739) demonstrated the best concordance, followed by 2D planimetry (ρc = 0.632), CE (ρc = 0.464) and PHT (ρc = 0.366). When both Yeo's index and 2D planimetry suggested significant MS, the positive predictive value was high (an AUC of 0.966 and a PPV of 100.00% for severe MS, and an AUC of 0.864 and a PPV of 85.71% for very severe MS). When both measures suggested the absence of significant MS, the negative predictive value was also high (an AUC of 0.940 and an NPV of 88.90% for severe MS, and an AUC of 0.831 and an NPV of 88.71% for very severe MS). CONCLUSIONS: Yeo's index performed well in identifying severe MS when compared with TEE 3DMVA and may be a useful adjunct to existing methods of measuring MS severity. Combining it with 2D planimetry could further enhance its accuracy.

Pre-treatment radiological factors associated with poor functional outcome in an Asian cohort of large vessel occlusion acute ischemic stroke patients undergoing mechanical thrombectomy.

Background and aims: Endovascular thrombectomy (EVT) is the current standard of care for large vessel occlusion (LVO) acute ischemic stroke (AIS); however, up to two-thirds of EVT patients have poor functional outcomes despite successful reperfusion. Many radiological markers have been studied as predictive biomarkers for patient outcomes in AIS. This study seeks to determine which clinico-radiological factors are associated with outcomes of interest to aid selection of patients for EVT for LVO AIS. Methods: A retrospective study of patients who underwent EVT from 2016 to 2020 was performed. Data on various radiological variables, such as anatomical parameters, clot characteristics, collateral status, and infarct size, were collected alongside traditional demographic and clinical variables. Univariate and multivariate analysis was performed for the primary outcomes of functional independence at 3 months post-stroke (modified Rankin Scale 0-2) and secondary outcomes of in-hospital mortality and symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage. Results: The study cohort comprised 325 consecutive patients with anterior circulation LVO AIS (54.5% male) with a median age of 68 years (interquartile range 57-76). The median NIHSS was 19. Age, hypertension, hyperlipidaemia, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS), Alberta mCTA score, ASPECTS, clot length, thrombus HU and mTICI score and the angle between ICA and CCA were associated with functional outcomes at 3 months on univariate analysis. On multivariate analysis, age, Alberta mCTA collaterals and NIHSS were significantly associated with functional outcomes, while ASPECTS approached significance. Conclusion: Among the many proposed radiological markers for patients in the hyperacute setting undergoing EVT, the existing well-validated clinico-radiological measures remain strongly associated with functional status.

Validation of Yeo's index in assessing severity of rheumatic mitral stenosis in mixed valve lesions.

Introduction: Yeo's Index, product of the mitral leaflet separation index and dimensionless index, is a novel measure of the severity of rheumatic mitral stenosis (MS). We assess Yeo's index in patients with rheumatic MS with or without mixed valve disease. Methods: In a retrospective cohort study, Yeo's index was measured in 237 cases of rheumatic MS - 124 in a transthoracic echocardiography validation cohort using mitral valve area (MVA) by pressure half-time and planimetry as comparator and 113 in a transesophageal echocardiography (TEE) validation cohort using TEE three-dimensional MVA as comparator. Patients were considered to have mixed valve disease if they had MS and concomitant mitral regurgitation or aortic valve disease. Results: There were 113 patients with isolated MS and 124 patients with mixed valve disease. Overall, Yeo's index ≤ 0.26 cm showed 93.0 % sensitivity and 87.5 % specificity for identifying severe MS (MVA ≤ 1.5 cm2). In isolated MS, Yeo's index ≤ 0.26 cm showed sensitivity of 94.6 % and specificity of 90.0 % for identifying severe MS, while in mixed valve disease sensitivity was 90.6 % and specificity 86.7 %. Overall, Yeo's index ≤ 0.15 cm showed 83.6 % sensitivity and 94.3 % specificity for very severe MS (MVA ≤ 1.0 cm2). In isolated MS, the threshold of ≤0.15 cm showed sensitivity of 84.4 % and specificity of 92.6 % for very severe MS, while in mixed valve disease sensitivity was 81.3 % and specificity 95.3 %. The presence of atrial fibrillation did not influence the performance of Yeo's index. Conclusion: Yeo's Index accurately differentiates severity of rheumatic MS with or without mixed valve disease.

Ischaemia with no obstructive coronary arteries: a review with focus on the Asian population.

ABSTRACT: Ischaemia with no obstructive coronary arteries (INOCA) has been a diagnostic and therapeutic challenge for decades. Several studies have demonstrated that INOCA is associated with an increased risk of death, adverse cardiovascular events, poor quality of life and high healthcare cost. Although there is increasing recognition of this entity in the Western population, in the Asian population, INOCA remains elusive and its prevalence uncertain. Despite its prognostic significance, diagnosis of INOCA is often delayed. In this review, we identified the multiple barriers to its diagnosis and management, and proposed strategies to overcome them.

Natural history of initially asymptomatic severe aortic stenosis: a one-stage meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Current guidelines on the management strategy for patients with asymptomatic severe aortic stenosis (AS) remain unclear. This uncertainty stems from the lack of data regarding the natural history of these patients. To address this gap, we performed a systematic review and meta-analysis examining the natural history of asymptomatic severe AS patients receiving conservative treatment. METHODS: The PubMed, Cochrane, and Embase databases were searched from inception to 24 January 2024 using the keywords "asymptomatic" AND "aortic" AND "stenosis". We included studies examining patients with asymptomatic severe AS. In interventional trials, only data from conservatively managed arms were collected. A one-stage meta-analysis was conducted using individual patient data reconstructed from published Kaplan-Meier curves. Sensitivity analysis was performed for major adverse cardiovascular outcomes in patients who remained asymptomatic throughout follow-up. RESULTS: A total of 46 studies were included (n = 9545). The median time to the development of symptoms was 1.11 years (95% CI 0.90-1.53). 49.36% (40.85-58.59) of patients who were asymptomatic had suffered a major adverse cardiovascular event by 5 years. The median event-free time for heart failure hospitalization (HFH) was 5.50 years (95% CI 5.14-5.91) with 36.34% (95% CI 33.34-39.41) of patients experiencing an HFH by year 5. By 5 years, 79.81% (95% CI 69.26-88.58) of patients developed symptoms (angina, dyspnoea, syncope and others) and 12.36% (95% CI 10.01-15.22) of patients died of cardiovascular causes. For all-cause mortality, the median survival time was 9.15 years (95% CI 8.50-9.96) with 39.43% (CI 33.41-36.40) of patients dying by 5 years. The median time to AVR was 4.77 years (95% CI 4.39-5.17), with 52.64% (95% CI 49.85-55.48) of patients requiring an AVR by 5 years. CONCLUSION: Our results reveal poor cardiovascular outcomes for patients with asymptomatic severe AS on conservative treatment. A significant proportion eventually requires an AVR. Further research is needed to determine if early intervention with AVR is more effective than conservative treatment.

Trends in electrocardiographic and cardiovascular manifestations of patients hospitalised with COVID-19.

INTRODUCTION: Early in the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, a low incidence of cardiovascular complications was reported in Singapore. Little was known about the trend of cardiovascular complications as the pandemic progressed. In this study, we examined the evolving trends in electrocardiographic and cardiovascular manifestations in patients hospitalised with COVID-19. METHODS: We examined the first 1781 consecutive hospitalised patients with polymerase chain reaction-confirmed COVID-19. We divided the population based on whether they had abnormal heart rate (HR) or electrocardiography (ECG) or normal HR and ECG, comparing the baseline characteristics and outcomes. Cardiovascular complications were defined as acute myocardial infarction, stroke, pulmonary embolism, myocarditis and mortality. RESULTS: The 253 (14.2%) patients who had abnormal HR/ECG at presentation were more likely to be symptomatic. Sinus tachycardia was commonly observed. Troponin I levels (97.0 ± 482.9 vs. 19.7 ± 68.4 ng/L, P = 0.047) and C-reactive protein levels (20.1 ± 50.7 vs. 13.9 ± 24.1 µmol/L, P = 0.003) were significantly higher among those with abnormal HR/ECGs, with a higher prevalence of myocarditis (2.0% vs. 0.5%, P = 0.019), pulmonary embolism (2.0% vs. 0.3%, P = 0.008) and acute myocardial infarction (1.2% vs. 0.1%, P = 0.023). After adjusting for age and comorbidities, abnormal HR/ECG (adjusted odds ratio 4.41, 95% confidence interval 2.21-8.77; P < 0.001) remained independently associated with adverse cardiovascular complications. Over time, there was a trend towards a higher proportion of hospitalised patients with cardiovascular complications. CONCLUSION: Cardiovascular complications appear to be increasing in proportion over time among hospitalised patients with COVID-19. A baseline ECG and HR measurement may be helpful for predicting these complications.

Time to benefit and harm of direct oral anticoagulants in device-detected atrial fibrillation: A pooled analysis of the NOAH-AFNET 6 and ARTESiA trials.

BACKGROUND: Direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) reduce stroke risk in patients with device-detected atrial fibrillation (DD-AFib) but increase major bleeding risk. The time to benefit (TTB) and time to harm (TTH) are not well quantified. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to determine TTB and TTH in DOAC-treated patients with DD-AFib. METHODS: Studies were identified from PubMed searching until November 2023. The primary efficacy outcome was the time to the first stroke event, and the primary safety outcome was the time to the first major bleeding event. Pooled hazard ratio (HR) and its confidence interval (CI) were calculated through reconstructed patient-level data and study-level data. Weibull model and Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation were applied to determine time to specific absolute risk change thresholds. RESULTS: Two trials involving DOACs-NOAH-AFNET 6 (Non-vitamin K antagonist Oral anticoagulants in patients with Atrial High rate episodes) and ARTESiA (Apixaban for the Reduction of Thrombo-Embolism in Patients With Device-Detected Sub-Clinical Atrial Fibrillation)-were identified, which randomized 6548 adults with a mean age of >75 years and a median atrial high-rate episode duration ranging from 1.5 to 2.8 hours. DOACs decreased the risk of stroke (HR 0.67; 95% CI 0.50-0.90) but increased the risk of major bleeding (HR 1.57; 95% CI 1.21-2.04). A TTB of 2.67 years was needed to prevent 1 stroke per 100 DOAC-treated patients, while a TTH of 1.67 years was needed to observe 1 major bleeding. CONCLUSION: In elderly patients with low durations of DD-AFib, DOACs result in a delayed and restricted stroke-preventive benefit while posing an early-onset bleeding risk. Our findings offer new insights into the risk-benefit profile and provide clinicians an additional dimension to facilitate shared decision-making discussions with patients.

Association of head and neck CT-derived sarcopenia with mortality and adverse outcomes: A systematic review.

BACKGROUND: There is growing interest in the association of CT-assessed sarcopenia with adverse outcomes in non-oncological settings. PURPOSE: The aim of this systematic review is to summarize existing literature on the prognostic implications of CT-assessed sarcopenia in non-oncological patients. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Three independent authors searched Medline/PubMed, Embase and Cochrane Library up to 30 December 2023 for observational studies that reported the presence of sarcopenia defined on CT head and neck in association with mortality estimates and other adverse outcomes, in non-oncological patients. The quality of included studies were assessed using the Quality of Prognostic Studies tool. RESULTS: Overall, 15 studies (3829 participants) were included. Nine studies were at low risk of bias, and six were at moderate risk of bias. Patient populations included those admitted for trauma or treatment of intracranial aneurysms, ischemic stroke, transient ischemic attack, and intracranial stenosis. Sarcopenia was associated with increased 30-day to 2-year mortality in inpatients and patients undergoing carotid endarterectomy or mechanical thrombectomy for acute ischemic stroke. Sarcopenia was also associated with poorer neurological and functional outcomes, increased likelihood of admission to long-term care facilities, and longer duration of hospital stays. The observed associations of sarcopenia with adverse outcomes remained similar across different imaging modalities and methods for quantifying sarcopenia. CONCLUSION: CT-assessed sarcopenia was associated with increased mortality and poorer outcomes across diverse patient populations. Measurement and early identification of sarcopenia in vulnerable patients allows for enhanced prognostication, and focused allocation of resources to mitigate adverse outcomes.

Patent foramen ovale closure in ischemic stroke patients with and without thrombophilia: a systematic review and meta-analyses.

Ischemic stroke patients with thrombophilia and patient foramen ovale (PFO) may have an increased risk of recurrent stroke and transient ischemic attack (TIA), and may benefit from PFO closure. However, screening for thrombophilia is not routinely performed and the impact of thrombophilia on prognosis after PFO closure is uncertain. We aim to compare the risk of recurrent stroke and TIA after PFO closure in patients with thrombophilia versus those without. We performed a systematic review and meta-analyses of the literature, with a comprehensive literature search performed on 12 January 2023. Studies comparing the outcomes of patients with and without thrombophilia after PFO closure were included. The primary outcome evaluated was a recurrence of acute cerebrovascular event (ACE), a composite of recurrent ischemic stroke and recurrent TIA. The secondary outcomes included recurrent ischemic stroke only or TIA only. A total of 8 cohort studies were included, with a total of 3514 patients. There was an increased risk of stroke/TIA in patients with thrombophilia compared to those without thrombophilia after PFO (OR: 1.42, 95% CI: 1.01-1.99, I2 = 50%). The association between risk of TIA only (OR: 1.36, 95% CI: 0.77-2.41, I2 = 0%) and stroke only (OR: 1.09, 95% CI: 0.54-2.21, I2 = 0%) with thrombophilia did not reach statistical significance. There is an increased risk of recurrent cerebral ischemia event in patients with thrombophilia compared to those without thrombophilia after PFO closure. Future large prospective studies are necessary to characterise the risk and benefits of PFO closure, as well as the appropriate medical treatment to reduce the risk of recurrent stroke and TIA in this high-risk population.

Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease landscape in Singapore.

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death worldwide, accounting for over one-third of all deaths in Singapore. An analysis of age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) for CVD in Singapore revealed a deceleration in the initial rapid decline in ASMR. A decrease in smoking prevalence may have contributed to the initial rapid decline in ASMR. Furthermore, other major risk factors, such as diabetes mellitus, hypertension, elevated low-density lipoprotein levels, and obesity, are steadily rising. Singapore's CVD economic burden is estimated to be 8.1 billion USD (11.5 billion SGD). The burden of CVD can only be reduced using individual and population-based approaches. Prevention programs must also be developed based on an understanding of risk trends. Therefore, this article attempts to capture the burden of CVD, trends in risk factor control, preventive care, disparities, and current unmet needs, particularly in atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease management in Singapore.

Performance of Risk Scores in Predicting Infective Endocarditis in Patients with Staphylococcus aureus Bacteraemia in a Prospective Asian Cohort.

Background: Several risk scores have been derived to predict the risk of infective endocarditis (IE) amongst patients with Staphylococcus aureus bacteraemia (SAB), which helps to guide clinical management. Methods: We prospectively studied 634 patients admitted with SAB. The cohort was stratified into those with or without IE, and the PREDICT Day 1, Day 5 and VIRSTA scores were tabulated. Area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC) curves were constructed to compare the performance of each score. Results: Of the 634 patients examined, 36 (5.7%) had IE. These patients were younger (51.6 ± 20.1 vs. 59.2 ± 18.0 years, p = 0.015), tended to have community acquisition of bacteraemia (41.7% vs. 17.9%, p < 0.001), and had persistent bacteraemia beyond 72 h (19.4% vs. 6.0%, p = 0.002). The VIRSTA score had the best performance in predicting IE (AUC 0.76, 95%CI 0.66-0.86) compared with PREDICT Day 1 and Day 5. A VIRSTA score of <3 had the best negative predictive value (97.5%), compared with PREDICT Day 1 (<4) and Day 5 (<2) (94.3% and 96.6%, respectively). Conclusions: Overall, the risk scores performed well in our Asian cohort. If applied, 23.5% of the cohort with a VIRSTA ≥ 3 would require TEE, and a score of <3 had an excellent negative predictive value.

Machine Learning Modeling to Predict Atrial Fibrillation Detection in Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source Patients.

BACKGROUND: In patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS), occult atrial fibrillation (AF) has been implicated as a key source of cardioembolism. However, only a minority acquire implantable cardiac loop recorders (ILRs) to detect occult paroxysmal AF, partly due to financial cost and procedural inconvenience. Without the initiation of appropriate anticoagulation, these patients are at risk of increased ischemic stroke recurrence. Hence, cost-effective and accurate methods of predicting AF in ESUS patients are highly sought after. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to incorporate clinical and echocardiography data into machine learning (ML) algorithms for AF prediction on ILRs in ESUS. METHODS: This was a single-center cohort study that included 157 consecutive patients diagnosed with ESUS from October 2014 to October 2017 who had ILR evaluation. We developed four ML models, with hyperparameters tuned, to predict AF detection on an ILR. RESULTS: The median age of the cohort was 67 (IQR 59-74) years old and the median monitoring duration was 1051 (IQR 478-1287) days. Of the 157 patients, 32 (20.4%) had occult AF detected on the ILR. Support vector machine predicted for AF with a 95% confidence interval area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.736-0.737, multilayer perceptron with an AUC of 0.697-0.708, XGBoost with an AUC of 0.697-0.697, and random forest with an AUC of 0.663-0.674. ML feature importance found that age, HDL-C, and admitting heart rate were important non-echocardiography variables, while peak mitral A-wave velocity and left atrial volume were important echocardiography parameters aiding this prediction. CONCLUSION: Machine learning modeling incorporating clinical and echocardiographic variables predicted AF in ESUS patients with moderate accuracy.

Evaluation of the Lifetime Benefits of Metformin and SGLT2 Inhibitors in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Patients with Cardiovascular Disease: A Systematic Review and Two-Stage Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Metformin and sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors have demonstrated cardiovascular benefits but their comparative effects on mortality in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) patients with cardiovascular disease (CVD) are unknown. Hence, we evaluated and compared lifetime benefits arising from metformin or SGLT2 inhibitors in T2DM patients with CVD. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Studies published in the PubMed, EMBASE and CENTRAL databases before 28 October 2023 were retrieved. Treatment effects of metformin against US FDA-approved SGLT2 inhibitors in T2DM patients with CVD were evaluated and lifetime gains in event-free survival were estimated from our primary endpoints of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. Risk ratios were derived to assess their impact on secondary outcomes such as major adverse cardiovascular events and hospitalizations for heart failure. RESULTS: Overall, 14 studies were included. Five studies published Kaplan-Meier curves for the primary outcome of all-cause mortality. Individual participant data were reconstructed from these Kaplan-Meier curves, from which we conducted our two-stage meta-analysis. Participants receiving metformin and SGLT2 inhibitors experienced a reduction in the risk for all-cause mortality as compared with those not taking metformin and placebo. However, participants receiving SGLT2 inhibitors had a higher all-cause mortality (hazard ratio 1.308, 95% confidence interval 1.103-1.550) versus metformin. Treatment with metformin was estimated to offer an additional 23.26 months of survival free from all-cause mortality versus 23.04 months with SGLT2 inhibitors. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with T2DM and CVD, metformin and SGLT2 inhibitors were associated with substantially lower all-cause mortality rates and slightly longer life expectancies than in patients without. Metformin presented an advantage over SGLT2 inhibitors in reducing all-cause mortality.