Quantifying excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 in The Gambia: a time-series analysis of three health and demographic surveillance systems.

OBJECTIVES: Estimates for COVID-19-related excess mortality for African populations using local data are needed to design and implement effective control policies. METHODS: We applied time-series analysis using data from three health and demographic surveillance systems in The Gambia (Basse, Farafenni, and Keneba) to examine pandemic-related excess mortality during 2020, when the first SARS-CoV-2 wave was observed, compared to the pre-pandemic period (2016-2019). RESULTS: Across the three sites, average mortality during the pre-pandemic period and the total deaths during 2020 were 1512 and 1634, respectively (Basse: 1099 vs 1179, Farafenni: 316 vs 351, Keneba: 98 vs 104). The overall annual crude mortality rates per 100,000 (95% CI) were 589 (559, 619) and 599 (571, 629) for the pre-pandemic and 2020 periods, respectively. The adjusted excess mortality rate was 8.8 (-34.3, 67.6) per 100,000 person-month with the adjusted rate ratio (aRR) = 1.01 (0.94,1.11). The age-stratified analysis showed excess mortality in Basse for infants (aRR = 1.22 [1.04, 1.46]) and in Farafenni for the 65+ years age group (aRR = 1.19 [1, 1.44]). CONCLUSION: We did not find significant excess overall mortality in 2020 in The Gambia. However, some age groups may have been at risk of excess death. Public health response in countries with weak health systems needs to consider vulnerable age groups and the potential for collateral damage.

Observational study of vaccine efficacy 24 years after the start of hepatitis B vaccination in two Gambian villages: no need for a booster dose.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the duration of protection from hepatitis B vaccine given in infancy and early childhood and asses risk factors for HBV infection and chronic infection. METHODS: In 1984 infant HBV vaccination was started in two Gambian villages. Cross sectional serological surveys have been undertaken every 4 years to determine vaccine efficacy. In the current survey 84.6% of 1508 eligible participants aged 1-28 years were tested. A spouse study was conducted in females (aged 14 years and above) and their male partners. RESULTS: Vaccine efficacy against chronic infection with hepatitis B virus was 95.1% (95% confidence interval 91.5% to 97.1%), which did not vary significantly between age groups or village. Efficacy against infection was 85.4% (82.7% to 87.7%), falling significantly with age. Concentrations of hepatitis B antibody fell exponentially with age varying according to peak response: 20 years after vaccination only 17.8% (95% CI 10.1-25.6) of persons with a low peak response (10-99 mIU/ml) had detectable HBs antibody compared to 27% (21.9% to 32.2%) of those with a high peak response (>999 mIU/ml). Time since vaccination and a low peak response were the strongest risk factors for HBV infections; males were more susceptible, marriage was not a significant risk for females. Hepatitis B DNA was not detected after infection, which tested soley core antibody positive. An undetectable peak antibody response of <10 mIU/ml and a mother who was hepatitis B e antigen positive were powerful risk factors for chronic infection. CONCLUSIONS: Adolescents and young adults vaccinated in infancy are at increased risk of hepatitis B infection, but not chronic infection. Married women were not at increased risk. There is no compelling evidence for the use of a booster dose of HBV vaccine in The Gambia.