Predicting critical illness on initial diagnosis of COVID-19 based on easily obtained clinical variables: development and validation of the PRIORITY model.

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to develop and validate a prediction model, based on clinical history and examination findings on initial diagnosis of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), to identify patients at risk of critical outcomes. METHODS: We used data from the SEMI-COVID-19 Registry, a cohort of consecutive patients hospitalized for COVID-19 from 132 centres in Spain (23rd March to 21st May 2020). For the development cohort, tertiary referral hospitals were selected, while the validation cohort included smaller hospitals. The primary outcome was a composite of in-hospital death, mechanical ventilation, or admission to intensive care unit. Clinical signs and symptoms, demographics, and medical history ascertained at presentation were screened using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator, and logistic regression was used to construct the predictive model. RESULTS: There were 10 433 patients, 7850 in the development cohort (primary outcome 25.1%, 1967/7850) and 2583 in the validation cohort (outcome 27.0%, 698/2583). The PRIORITY model included: age, dependency, cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, dyspnoea, tachypnoea, confusion, systolic blood pressure, and SpO2 ≤93% or oxygen requirement. The model showed high discrimination for critical illness in both the development (C-statistic 0.823; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.813, 0.834) and validation (C-statistic 0.794; 95%CI 0.775, 0.813) cohorts. A freely available web-based calculator was developed based on this model (https://www.evidencio.com/models/show/2344). CONCLUSIONS: The PRIORITY model, based on easily obtained clinical information, had good discrimination and generalizability for identifying COVID-19 patients at risk of critical outcomes.

Rotura de aneurisma de la arteria hepática como causa infrecuente de dolor abdominal y hemorragia digestiva / Ruptured hepatic artery aneurysm: an infrequent cause of abdominal pain and gastrointestinal bleeding

Resumen La hemorragia digestiva alta se define como el sangrado originado en el tracto digestivo superior, proximalmente al ángulo de Treitz, y constituye la urgencia gastroenterológica más importante. Tiene una incidencia que varía, según el área estudiada, entre 48 y 160 casos por 100 000 habitantes y año. Aunque puede ser causada por numerosas etiologías, no debemos olvidar aquellas menos comunes, ya que pueden condicionar una alta mortalidad, como es el caso de la rotura de un aneurisma de la arteria hepática. A continuación, mostramos un caso representativo.

Abstract Upper gastrointestinal bleeding is defined as bleeding originating in the upper digestive tract proximal to the Treitz angle and is the most important gastroenterological emergency. Its incidence varies, depending on the area studied, between 48 and 160 cases per 100,000 inhabitants per year. Although it can be caused by numerous etiologies, we must not forget the less common ones such as a ruptured hepatic artery aneurysm since they can condition high mortality. We present a representative case.