Predicting death from COVID-19 using pre-existing conditions: implications for vaccination triage.

INTRODUCTION: Global shortages in the supply of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines have resulted in campaigns to first inoculate individuals at highest risk for death from COVID-19. Here, we develop a predictive model of COVID-19-related death using longitudinal clinical data from patients in metropolitan Detroit. METHODS: All individuals included in the analysis had a laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection. Thirty-six pre-existing conditions with a false discovery rate p<0.05 were combined with other demographic variables to develop a parsimonious prediction model using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression. The model was then prospectively validated in a separate set of individuals with confirmed COVID-19. RESULTS: The study population consisted of 15 502 individuals with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2. The main prediction model was developed using data from 11 635 individuals with 709 reported deaths (case fatality ratio 6.1%). The final prediction model consisted of 14 variables with 11 comorbidities. This model was then prospectively assessed among the remaining 3867 individuals (185 deaths; case fatality ratio 4.8%). When compared with using an age threshold of 65 years, the 14-variable model detected 6% more of the individuals who would die from COVID-19. However, below age 45 years and its risk equivalent, there was no benefit to using the prediction model over age alone. DISCUSSION: Using a prediction model, such as the one described here, may help identify individuals who would most benefit from COVID-19 inoculation, and thereby may produce more dramatic initial drops in deaths through targeted vaccination.

Mapping the 17q12-21.1 Locus for Variants Associated with Early-Onset Asthma in African Americans.

Rationale: The 17q12-21.1 locus is one of the most highly replicated genetic associations with asthma. Individuals of African descent have lower linkage disequilibrium in this region, which could facilitate identifying causal variants.Objectives: To identify functional variants at 17q12-21.1 associated with early-onset asthma among African American individuals.Methods: We evaluated African American participants from SAPPHIRE (Study of Asthma Phenotypes and Pharmacogenomic Interactions by Race-Ethnicity) (n = 1,940), SAGE II (Study of African Americans, Asthma, Genes and Environment) (n = 885), and GCPD-A (Study of the Genetic Causes of Complex Pediatric Disorders-Asthma) (n = 2,805). Associations with asthma onset at ages under 5 years were meta-analyzed across cohorts. The lead signal was reevaluated considering haplotypes informed by genetic ancestry (i.e., African vs. European). Both an expression-quantitative trait locus analysis and a phenome-wide association study were performed on the lead variant.Measurements and Main Results: The meta-analyzed results from SAPPHIRE, SAGE II, and the GCPD-A identified rs11078928 as the top association for early-onset asthma. A haplotype analysis suggested that the asthma association partitioned most closely with the rs11078928 genotype. Genetic ancestry did not appear to influence the effect of this variant. In the expression-quantitative trait locus analysis, rs11078928 was related to alternative splicing of GSDMB (gasdermin-B) transcripts. The phenome-wide association study of rs11078928 suggested that this variant was predominantly associated with asthma and asthma-associated symptoms.Conclusions: A splice-acceptor polymorphism appears to be a causal variant for asthma at the 17q12-21.1 locus. This variant appears to have the same magnitude of effect in individuals of African and European descent.

Fuzzy Entropy Analysis of the Electroencephalogram in Patients with Alzheimer's Disease: Is the Method Superior to Sample Entropy?

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is the most prevalent form of dementia in the world, which is characterised by the loss of neurones and the build-up of plaques in the brain, causing progressive symptoms of memory loss and confusion. Although definite diagnosis is only possible by necropsy, differential diagnosis with other types of dementia is still needed. An electroencephalogram (EEG) is a cheap, portable, non-invasive method to record brain signals. Previous studies with non-linear signal processing methods have shown changes in the EEG due to AD, which is characterised reduced complexity and increased regularity. EEGs from 11 AD patients and 11 age-matched control subjects were analysed with Fuzzy Entropy (FuzzyEn), a non-linear method that was introduced as an improvement over the frequently used Approximate Entropy (ApEn) and Sample Entropy (SampEn) algorithms. AD patients had significantly lower FuzzyEn values than control subjects (p < 0.01) at electrodes T6, P3, P4, O1, and O2. Furthermore, when diagnostic accuracy was calculated using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves, FuzzyEn outperformed both ApEn and SampEn, reaching a maximum accuracy of 86.36%. These results suggest that FuzzyEn could increase the insight into brain dysfunction in AD, providing potentially useful diagnostic information. However, results depend heavily on the input parameters that are used to compute FuzzyEn.

Classification of Alzheimer's disease from quadratic sample entropy of electroencephalogram.

Currently accepted input parameter limitations in entropy-based, non-linear signal processing methods, for example, sample entropy (SampEn), may limit the information gathered from tested biological signals. The ability of quadratic sample entropy (QSE) to identify changes in electroencephalogram (EEG) signals of 11 patients with a diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease (AD) and 11 age-matched, healthy controls is investigated. QSE measures signal regularity, where reduced QSE values indicate greater regularity. The presented method allows a greater range of QSE input parameters to produce reliable results than SampEn. QSE was lower in AD patients compared with controls with significant differences (p < 0.01) for different parameter combinations at electrodes P3, P4, O1 and O2. Subject- and epoch-based classifications were tested with leave-one-out linear discriminant analysis. The maximum diagnostic accuracy and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve were 77.27 and more than 80%, respectively, at many parameter and electrode combinations. Furthermore, QSE results across all r values were consistent, suggesting QSE is robust for a wider range of input parameters than SampEn. The best results were obtained with input parameters outside the acceptable range for SampEn, and can identify EEG changes between AD patients and controls. However, caution should be applied because of the small sample size.

Lempel-Ziv complexity of cortical activity during sleep and waking in rats.

Understanding the dynamics of brain activity manifested in the EEG, local field potentials (LFP), and neuronal spiking is essential for explaining their underlying mechanisms and physiological significance. Much has been learned about sleep regulation using conventional EEG power spectrum, coherence, and period-amplitude analyses, which focus primarily on frequency and amplitude characteristics of the signals and on their spatio-temporal synchronicity. However, little is known about the effects of ongoing brain state or preceding sleep-wake history on the nonlinear dynamics of brain activity. Recent advances in developing novel mathematical approaches for investigating temporal structure of brain activity based on such measures, as Lempel-Ziv complexity (LZC) can provide insights that go beyond those obtained with conventional techniques of signal analysis. Here, we used extensive data sets obtained in spontaneously awake and sleeping adult male laboratory rats, as well as during and after sleep deprivation, to perform a detailed analysis of cortical LFP and neuronal activity with LZC approach. We found that activated brain states-waking and rapid eye movement (REM) sleep are characterized by higher LZC compared with non-rapid eye movement (NREM) sleep. Notably, LZC values derived from the LFP were especially low during early NREM sleep after sleep deprivation and toward the middle of individual NREM sleep episodes. We conclude that LZC is an important and yet largely unexplored measure with a high potential for investigating neurophysiological mechanisms of brain activity in health and disease.

Volume conduction effects on bivariate Lempel-Ziv Complexity of Alzheimer's disease electroencephalograms.

The spurious increase in coherence of electroencephalogram (EEG) signals between distant electrode points has long been understood to be due to volume conduction of the EEG signal. Reducing the volume conduction components of EEG recordings in pre-processing attenuates this. However, the effect of volume conduction on non-linear signal processing of EEG signals is yet to be fully described. This pilot study aimed to investigate the impact of volume conduction on results calculated with a distance based, bivariate form of Lempel-Ziv Complexity (dLZC) by analyzing EEG signals from Alzheimer's disease (AD) patients and healthy age-matched controls with and without pre-processing with Current Source Density (CSD) transformation. Spurious statistically significant differences between AD patients and control's EEG signals seen without CSD pre-processing were not seen with CSD volume conduction mitigation. There was, however, overlap in the region of electrodes which were seen to hold this statistically significant information. These results show that, while previously published findings are still valid, volume conduction mitigation is required to ensure non-linear signal processing methods identify changes in signals only due to the purely local signal alone.