Modelling Forced Vital Capacity in Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis: Optimising Trial Design.

INTRODUCTION: Forced vital capacity is the only registrational endpoint in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis clinical trials. As most new treatments will be administered on top of standard of care, estimating treatment response will become more challenging. We developed a simulation model to quantify variability associated with forced vital capacity decline. METHODS: The model is based on publicly available clinical trial summary and home spirometry data. A single, illustrative trial setting is reported. Model assumptions are 400 subjects randomised 1:1 to investigational drug or placebo over 52 weeks, 50% of each group receiving standard of care (all-comer population), and a 90-mL treatment difference in annual forced vital capacity decline. Longitudinal profiles were simulated and the impact of varying clinical scenarios evaluated. RESULTS: Power to detect a significant treatment difference was 87-97%, depending on the analysis method. Repeated measures analysis generally outperformed analysis of covariance and mixed linear models, particularly with missing data (as simulated data were non-linear). A 15% yearly random dropout rate led to 0.6-5% power loss. Forced vital capacity decline-related dropout introduced greater power loss (up to 12%), as did subjects starting/stopping standard of care or investigational drug. Power was substantially lower for a 26-week trial due to the smaller assumed treatment effect at week 26 (sample size would need doubling to reach a power similar to that of a 52-week trial). CONCLUSIONS: Our model quantifies forced vital capacity decline and associated variability, with all the caveats of background therapy, permitting robust power calculations to inform future idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis clinical trial design. FUNDING: Galapagos NV (Mechelen, Belgium).

The Escherichia coli common pilus and the bundle-forming pilus act in concert during the formation of localized adherence by enteropathogenic E. coli.

Although the bundle-forming pilus (BFP) of enteropathogenic Escherichia coli (EPEC) mediates microcolony formation on epithelial cells, the adherence of BFP-deficient mutants is significantly abrogated, but the mutants are still adherent due to the presence of intimin and possibly other adhesins. In this study we investigated the contribution of the recently described E. coli common pilus (ECP) to the overall adherence properties of EPEC. We found that ECP and BFP structures can be simultaneously observed in the course (between zero time and 7 h during infection) of formation of localized adherence on cultured epithelial cells. These two pilus types colocalized at different levels of the microcolony topology, tethering the adhering bacteria. No evidence of BFP disappearance was found after prolonged infection. When expressed from a plasmid present in nonadherent E. coli HB101, ECP rendered this organism highly adherent at levels comparable to those of HB101 expressing the BFP. Purified ECP bound in a dose-dependent manner to epithelial cells, and the binding was blocked with anti-ECP antibodies, confirming that the pili possess adhesin properties. An ECP mutant showed only a modest reduction in adherence to cultured cells due to background expression levels of BFP and intimin. However, isogenic mutants not expressing EspA or BFP were significantly less adherent when the ecpA gene was also deleted. Furthermore, a DeltaespA DeltaecpA double mutant (unable to translocate Tir and to establish intimate adhesion) was at least 10-fold less adherent than the DeltaespA and DeltaecpA single mutants, even in the presence of BFP. A Delta bfp DeltaespA DeltaecpA triple mutant showed the least adherence compared to the wild type and all the isogenic mutant strains tested, suggesting that ECP plays a synergistic role in adherence. Our data indicate that ECP is an accessory factor that, in association with BFP and other adhesins, contributes to the multifactorial complex interaction of EPEC with host epithelial cells.