Factors associated with the consultation of GPs among adults aged ≥16 years: an analysis of data from the Health Survey for England 2019.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the factors associated with demands for general practice care is crucial for policy decision makers to appropriately allocate healthcare resources. AIM: To investigate factors associated with the frequency of GP consultations. DESIGN & SETTING: Data on 8086 adults aged ≥16 years was obtained from cross-sectional Health Survey for England (HSE) 2019. METHOD: The primary outcome was the frequency of consultations of a GP in the last 12 months. Multivariable ordered logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate associations between GP consultations and a range of sociodemographic and health-related factors. RESULTS: Frequency of GP consultations for all reasons was higher among females (odds ratio [OR] 1.81, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.64 to 2.01), those aged ≥75 years (OR 1.48, 95% CI = 1.15 to 1.92), ethnic minority populations (Black: OR 1.42, 95% CI = 1.09 to 1.84; Asian: OR 1.53, 95% CI = 1.25 to 1.87), lowest household income (OR 1.53, 95% CI = 1.29 to 1.83), adults with long-lasting illnesses (OR 3.78, 95% CI = 3.38 to 4.22), former smokers (OR 1.17, 95% CI = 1.04 to 1.22), being overweight (OR 1.14, 95% CI = 1.01 to 1.29), and being obese (OR 1.32, 95% CI = 1.16 to 1.50). Predictors of consultations for physical health problems were similar to predictors of consultations for any health problems. However, younger age was associated with more consultations for mental health problems, or a combination of mental and physical health problems. CONCLUSION: The higher frequency of consultation of GPs is associated with female sex, older age, ethnic minority populations, being socioeconomically disadvantaged, existence of lasting illnesses, smoking, being overweight, and being obese. Older age is associated with increased consultations for physical health problems, but associated with reduced consultations for mental health or a combination of mental and physical health problems.

Trends in the distribution of socioeconomic inequalities in smoking and cessation: evidence among adults aged 18 ~ 59 from China Family Panel Studies data.

INTRODUCTION: Cigarette smoking is usually more prevalent among those with a lower socioeconomic status (SES), which can be driven by inequalities in the initiation and cessation of smoking, giving rise to SES disparities in health. This study aimed to gauge the SES inequalities in smoking related behaviours and their evolving trends based on a nationally representative database. METHOD: Data were extracted from repeated cross-sectional China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) of adults aged ≥18 and <60 years in 2012, 2014, 2016 and 2018. SES was constructed by principal component analysis based on income, education and occupation. Regression-based odds ratios and coefficients as the relative effect index of inequality were applied to quantify the degree of socioeconomic inequality in smoking related behaviours and to adjust for possible confounding factors. Multivariable regressions were utilized to explore the temporal trends in smoking inequalities. RESULTS: The smoking prevalence among men decreased from 61.16% to 2012 to 57.88% in 2018, cigarette consumption among current smokers declined from 16.71 to 15.49 cigs/per day, and the cessation rate increased from 17.55% to 24.08%. Cigarette consumption for women decreased from 13.39 in 2012 to 11.01 cigs/per day in 2018. Smoking prevalence showed significant SES inequalities among men and women from 2012 to 2018 (men: OR2012 (95%CI)= 0.72 (0.63, 0.83), OR2014 = 0.60 (0.52, 0.69), OR2016 = 0.58 (0.50, 0.67), OR2018 = 0.56 (0.48, 0.66); women: OR2012 = 0.63 (0.41, 0.97), OR2014 = 0.50 (0.32, 0.79), OR2016 = 0.44 (0.26,  0.73), OR2018 = 0.50 (0.30,  0.85)). Cigarette consumption showed significant SES inequalities among men from 2012 to 2018 (ß2012=-1.39 (-2.22, -0.57), ß2014=-2.37 (-3.23, -1.50), ß2016=-2.35 (-3.25, -1.44), ß2018=-2.91 (-3.86, -1.97)). In 2018, inequality emerged in smoking cessation rates among men and smoking intensity among women. However, all tests for trends in changes over time were not statistically significant (P varied from 0.072 to 0.602). CONCLUSION: The smoking prevalence declined between 2012 and 2018 in China. However, SES inequalities in smoking persist, while socioeconomic inequalities in smoking were not alleviated among adults aged 18 ~ 59 in China. Tobacco control measures should be implemented by giving more attention to people with lower SES who are more vulnerable to tobacco use.

Characteristics and result reporting of registered COVID-19 clinical trials of Chinese and Indian traditional medicine: A comparative analysis.

Objective: To assess the main characteristics and result reporting of registered COVID-19 interventional trials of traditional Chinese medicine and traditional Indian medicine. Materials and methods: We assessed design quality and result reporting of COVID-19 trials of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) and traditional Indian medicine (TIM) registered before 10 February 2021, respectively, on Chinese Clinical Trial Registry (ChiCTR) and Clinical Trial Registry-India (CTRI). Comparison groups included registered COVID-19 trials of conventional medicine conducted in China (WMC), India (WMI), and in other countries (WMO). Cox regression analysis was used to assess the association between time from trial onset to result reporting and trial characteristics. Results: The proportion of COVID-19 trials investigating traditional medicine was 33.7% (130/386) among trials registered on ChiCTR, and 58.6% (266/454) on CTRI. Planned sample sizes were mostly small in all COVID-19 trials (median 100, IQR: 50-200). The proportion of trials that were randomized was 75.4 and 64.8%, respectively, for the TCM and TIM trials. Blinding measures were used in 6.2% of the TCM trials, and 23.6% of the TIM trials. Cox regression analysis revealed that planned COVID-19 clinical trials of traditional medicine were less likely to have results reported than trials of conventional medicine (hazard ratio 0.713, 95% confidence interval: 0.541-0.939; p = 0.0162). Conclusion: There were considerable between-country and within-country differences in design quality, target sample size, trial participants, and reporting of trial results. Registered COVID-19 clinical trials of traditional medicine were less likely to report results than trials of conventional medicine.

Trends in Socio-economic Inequality in Smoking Among Middle-aged and Older Adults in China: Evidence From the 2011 and 2018 China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study.

INTRODUCTION: Socio-economic inequalities in smoking and related health problems are a public health concern worldwide. To support the development of effective tobacco control policies, this study examines trends in smoking rates according to socio-economic status (SES) in China. AIMS AND METHODS: We analyzed data from repeated cross-sectional China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) on adults aged ≥45 years for the years 2011 and 2018, which involved 16 471 participants in 2011 and 19 367 in 2018. We then estimated the SES of individuals based on four types of wealth-related variables, namely, education, occupation, household characteristics, and durable consumer goods. Principal-component analysis was conducted to measure SES, and the Erreygers normalised concentration index (ECI) was used to calculate socio-economic inequality in current smoking by gender, age, and region. RESULTS: The overall ECI (95% confidence interval) for women was -0.042 (-0.054 to -0.031) and -0.038 (-0.047 to -0.029) for 2011 and 2018, respectively. The ECI (95% confidence interval) for men was -0.077 (-0.101 to -0.050) and -0.019 (-0.042 to 0.005) for 2011 and 2018, respectively. The inequality in smoking by SES for adults aged < 60 years in the Northeast region increased during 2011-2018, from -0.069 (-0.144 to 0.006) to -0.119 (-0.199 to -0.038) for women and from 0.009 (-0.115 to 0.132) to -0.164 (-0.296 to -0.032) for men. CONCLUSIONS: smoking inequality by socio-economic among adults aged ≥45 years declined in recent years in China. However, smoking inequality by SES increased in other population groups. IMPLICATIONS: Our research indicated that socio-economic inequality of current smoking among residents aged 45 years and older declined in 2018 when compared with 2011 numbers, particularly for men aged ≥ 60 years. Women in the Northeast region displayed more significant smoking inequality by SES than women in other regions did. During the study period, there was an increase in inequality in smoking by SES for adults aged < 60 years in the Northeast region. Thus, tobacco control policies and interventions should be targeted at high-risk subpopulations with lower SES, particularly in Northeast China.

Evidence to Underpin Vitamin A Requirements and Upper Limits in Children Aged 0 to 48 Months: A Scoping Review.

Vitamin A deficiency is a major health risk for infants and children in low- and middle-income countries. This scoping review identified, quantified, and mapped research for use in updating nutrient requirements and upper limits for vitamin A in children aged 0 to 48 months, using health-based or modelling-based approaches. Structured searches were run on Medline, EMBASE, and Cochrane Central, from inception to 19 March 2021. Titles and abstracts were assessed independently in duplicate, as were 20% of full texts. Included studies were tabulated by question, methodology and date, with the most relevant data extracted and assessed for risk of bias. We found that the most recent health-based systematic reviews and trials assessed the effects of supplementation, though some addressed the effects of staple food fortification, complementary foods, biofortified maize or cassava, and fortified drinks, on health outcomes. Recent isotopic tracer studies and modelling approaches may help quantify the effects of bio-fortification, fortification, and food-based approaches for increasing vitamin A depots. A systematic review and several trials identified adverse events associated with higher vitamin A intakes, which should be useful for setting upper limits. We have generated and provide a database of relevant research. Full systematic reviews, based on this scoping review, are needed to answer specific questions to set vitamin A requirements and upper limits.

Maternal smoking status during pregnancy and low birth weight in offspring: systematic review and meta-analysis of 55 cohort studies published from 1986 to 2020.

BACKGROUND: Maternal smoking during pregnancy may be associated with low birth weight (LBW) in offspring and global risk estimates have not been summarized previously. We aimed to systematically explore evidence regarding maternal smoking and the LBW risk in offspring globally and examine possible causes of heterogeneity across relevant studies. METHODS: Comprehensive search of PubMed, Ovid Embase, Ovid Medline (R), and Web of science from inception until October 2021 was carried out. A random-effects meta-analysis was used to estimate the pooled odds ratio (OR) and corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI). Restricted cubic spline analysis with three knots was used to further examine the dose-response relationship. RESULTS: Literature searches yielded 4940 articles, of which 53 met inclusion criteria (comprising 55 independent studies). Maternal smoking during pregnancy was significantly associated with the risk of LBW in offspring (OR = 1.89, 95% CI = 1.80-1.98). Furthermore, an obvious dose-response relationship between the amount of cigarettes daily smoked in pregnancy and the risk of LBW in offspring was observed. The results of subgroup analyses indicated that the risk of maternal smoking on LBW was larger in more recently conducted studies (P = 0.020) and longer period of active smoking during pregnancy (P = 0.002). No evidence of publication bias was found. CONCLUSIONS: In summary, maternal smoking in pregnancy was significantly associated with a higher risk of LBW in offspring on a global scale. The risk of maternal smoking on infant LBW seems to be increasing over time, and was higher with longer smoking duration throughout pregnancy and more cigarettes smoked daily.

Quality of Health Economic Evaluations in Mainland China: A Comparison of Peer-Reviewed Articles in Chinese and in English.

OBJECTIVE: Our objective was to assess the incidence and quality of reporting of published health economic evaluations in mainland China and compare the quality of peer-reviewed articles in Chinese and English. METHODS: A comprehensive search was conducted for economic evaluations pertaining to China published from 2006 to 2015 using the PubMed, CBM, CMCC, CNKI, VIP, and Wanfang databases. All studies in English that met the inclusion criteria were included. For studies in Chinese, 200 sampled studies were included according to the random seeds method, and the same number of the most-cited studies in Chinese as those in English were included according to the number of citations and journal grades. Researchers independently assessed the quality of the studies using the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards (CHEERS) checklist. RESULTS: After literature search and screening, a total of 310 studies were identified. The majority of these studies were cost-effectiveness studies (82.26%). Scores among different CHEERS items varied greatly. There was a gap between the average quality scores of the studies published in Chinese and those published in English (49.78 ± 9.31 vs. 82.48 ± 17.69) and between the average quality scores of the included most-cited studies in Chinese and English, which was slightly smaller (54.08 ± 10.27 vs. 82.48 ± 17.69). The methods, results, and discussion sections of studies published in Chinese were of low quality. CONCLUSION: The quality of reporting of health economic evaluations in mainland China has developed slowly. Most of the included studies were incomplete in the presentation of content, making the results less reliable. It is important to standardize and improve the quality of Chinese health economic research.

Cost-effectiveness of 4 mg dibotermin alfa/absorbable collagen sponge versus iliac crest bone graft for lumbar degenerative disc disease in the United Kingdom.

AIMS: To develop a model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of 4 mg dibotermin alfa/absorbable collagen sponge (ACS) versus iliac crest bone graft (ICBG) in patients with lumbar degenerative disc disease in the United Kingdom. MATERIALS & METHODS: A Markov decision-analytic model was constructed to calculate costs and quality-adjusted life-years over a 4-year time horizon in each treatment group, from a United Kingdom National Health Service perspective. An individual patient data meta-analysis was undertaken to synthesize data from four randomized controlled trials and two single-arm studies concerning health-related quality of life and procedural resource use. Current cost data from the United Kingdom were then applied to determine the overall mean cost per patient in each group. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were undertaken to explore the impact of parameter uncertainty. RESULTS: The model predicted 4-year discounted cost savings of £192 per patient treated with dibotermin alfa/ACS, compared with ICBG, and a gain of 0.0114 QALYs per patient over the same time period. Sensitivity analyses indicated that the results were most sensitive to variability in the differences in health-related quality of life and secondary surgery rate, with dibotermin alfa/ACS having a 60% probability of being cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of £20,000 per QALY gained. LIMITATIONS: There is uncertainty in the difference in cost and QALYs between the two groups. However, comprehensive sensitivity analyses were undertaken to explore this and present the results in a transparent manner. CONCLUSIONS: Our results provide an economic case for the use of 4 mg dibotermin alfa/ACS versus iliac crest bone graft, with additional health benefits predicted at reduced overall cost.

Vaccination against COVID-19 and society's return to normality in England: a modelling study of impacts of different types of naturally acquired and vaccine-induced immunity.

OBJECTIVES: To project impacts of mass vaccination against COVID-19, and investigate possible impacts of different types of naturally acquired and vaccine-induced immunity on future dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission from 2021 to 2024 in England. DESIGN: Deterministic, compartmental, discrete-time Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) modelling. PARTICIPANTS: Population in England. INTERVENTIONS: Mass vaccination programmes. OUTCOME MEASURES: Daily and cumulative number of deaths from COVID-19. RESULTS: If vaccine efficacy remains high (85%), the vaccine-induced sterilising immunity lasts ≥182 days, and the reinfectivity is greatly reduced (by ≥60%), annual mass vaccination programmes can prevent further COVID-19 outbreaks in England. Under optimistic scenarios, with annual revaccination programmes, the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths is estimated to be from 130 000 to 150 000 by the end of 2024. However, the total number of COVID-19 deaths may be up to 431 000 by the end of 2024, under scenarios with compromised vaccine efficacy (62.5%), short duration of natural and vaccine immunity (365/182 days) and small reduction in reinfectivity (30%). Under the assumed scenarios, more frequent revaccinations are associated with smaller total numbers and lower peaks of daily deaths from COVID-19. CONCLUSIONS: Under optimistic scenarios, mass immunisation using efficacious vaccines may enable society safely to return to normality. However, under plausible scenarios with low vaccine efficacy and short durability of immunity, COVID-19 could continue to cause recurrent waves of severe morbidity and mortality despite frequent vaccinations. It is crucial to monitor the vaccination effects in the real world, and to better understand characteristics of naturally acquired and vaccine-induced immunity against SARS-CoV-2.

Progress and challenges of network meta-analysis.

In the past years, network meta-analysis (NMA) has been widely used among clinicians, guideline makers, and health technology assessment agencies and has played an important role in clinical decision-making and guideline development. To inform further development of NMAs, we conducted a bibliometric analysis to assess the current status of published NMA methodological studies, summarized the methodological progress of seven types of NMAs, and discussed the current challenges of NMAs.

Prespecification of subgroup analyses and examination of treatment-subgroup interactions in cancer individual participant data meta-analyses are suboptimal.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to explore the prespecification and conduct of subgroup analyses in cancer individual participant data meta-analyses (IPDMAs). STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We searched PubMed, Embase.com, Cochrane Library, and Web of Science to identify IPDMAs of randomized controlled trials evaluating intervention effects for cancer. We evaluated how often cancer IPDMAs prespecify subgroup analyses and statistical approaches for examining treatment-subgroup interactions and handling continuous subgroup variables. RESULTS: We included 89 IPDMAs, of which 41 (46.1%) reported a statistically significant treatment-subgroup interaction (P < 0.05) in at least one subgroup analysis. 47 (52.8%) IPDMAs prespecified methods for conducting subgroup analyses and the remaining 42 (47.2%) did not prespecify subgroup analyses. Of the 47 IPDMAs prespecified subgroup analyses, 19 performed the planned subgroup analyses, 21 added subgroup analyses, 7 reduced subgroup analyses. Eighty IPDMAs examined treatment-subgroup interactions, but 72 IPDMAs did not provide enough information to determine whether an appropriate approach that avoided aggregation bias was used. 85 IPDMAs that used continuous variables in subgroup analyses categorized continuous variables and only 1 IPDMA examined non-linear relationships. CONCLUSION: Many cancer IPDMAs did not prespecify subgroup analyses, nor did they fully perform planned subgroup analyses. Lack of details for the test of treatment-subgroup interactions and examination of non-linear interactions was suboptimal.

The Rates and the Determinants of Hypertension According to the 2017 Definition of Hypertension by ACC/AHA and 2014 Evidence-Based Guidelines Among Population Aged ≥40 Years Old.

Background: In November 2017, the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) updated their definition of hypertension from 140/90 mm Hg to 130/80 mm Hg. Objectives: We sought to assess the situation of hypertension and the impact of applying the new threshold to a geographically and ethnically diverse population. Methods: We analyzed selected data on 237,142 participants aged ≥40 who had blood pressure taken for the 2014 China National Stroke Screening and Prevention Project. Choropleth maps and logistic regression analyses were performed to estimate the prevalence, geographical distribution and risk factors of hypertension using both 2017 ACC/AHA guidelines and 2014 evidence-based guidelines. Results: The present cross-sectional study showed the age- and sex-standardized prevalence of hypertension was 37.08% and 58.52%, respectively, according to 2014 evidence-based guidelines and 2017 ACC/AHA guidelines. The distribution of hypertension and risk factors changed little between guidelines, with data showing a high prevalence of hypertension around Bohai Gulf and in south central coastal areas using either definition. The age- and sex-standardized prevalence of newly labeled as hypertensive was 21.44%. Interestingly, the high prevalence region of newly labeled as hypertensive was found in the north China. Conclusion: The prevalence of hypertension increased significantly on 2017 ACC/AHA guidelines compared to the prevalence when using 2014 evidence-based guidelines, with high prevalence areas of newly labeled as hypertensive now seen mainly in north China. There need to be correspondingly robust efforts to improve health education, health management, and behavioral and lifestyle interventions in the north.

Mapping modifiable determinants of medication adherence in bipolar disorder (BD) to the theoretical domains framework (TDF): a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Around 40% of people with bipolar disorder (BD) are non-adherent to medication leading to relapse, hospitalisation and increased suicide risk. Limited progress in addressing non-adherence may be partly attributable to insufficient understanding of the modifiable determinants of adherence that require targeting in interventions. We synthesised the modifiable determinants of adherence in BD and map them to the theoretical domains framework (TDF). METHOD: We searched CINAHL, Cochrane Library, Embase, LILACS, Medline, PsychINFO and PubMed until February 2020. We included studies reporting modifiable determinants of adherence in BD. Two reviewers independently screened studies, assessed quality, extracted modifiable determinants and mapped them to TDF. RESULTS: We included 57 studies involving 32 894 participants. Determinants reported by patients spanned 11 of the 14 TDF domains compared to six domains represented by clinician/researcher. The TDF domains most commonly represented (% and example) in studies were: 'Environmental context and resources' (63%, e.g. experiencing side effects), 'Beliefs about consequences' (63%, e.g. beliefs about medication effects), 'Knowledge' (40%, e.g. knowledge about disorder), 'Social influences' (33%, e.g. support from family/clinicians), 'Memory, attention and decision processes' (33%, e.g. forgetfulness), 'Emotion' (21%, e.g. fear of addiction) and 'Intentions' (21%, e.g. wanting alternative treatment). 'Intentions', 'Memory, attention and decision processes' and 'Emotion' domains were only reported by patients but not clinicians. CONCLUSIONS: Clinicians may be underappreciating the full range of modifiable determinants of adherence and thus not providing adherence support reflective of patients' needs. Reporting of modifiable determinants in behavioural terms facilitates developing theory-based interventions to address non-adherence in BD.

Intraday effects of ambient PM1 on emergency department visits in Guangzhou, China: A case-crossover study.

BACKGROUND: Short-term exposure to PM2.5 has been widely associated with human morbidity and mortality. However, most up-to-date research was conducted at a daily timescale, neglecting the intra-day variations in both exposure and outcome. As an important fraction in PM2.5, PM1 has not been investigated about the very acute effects within a few hours. METHODS: Hourly data for size-specific PMs (i.e., PM1, PM2.5, and PM10), all-cause emergency department (ED) visits and meteorological factors were collected from Guangzhou, China, 2015-2016. A time-stratified case-crossover design with conditional logistic regression analysis was performed to evaluate the hourly association between size-specific PMs and ED visits, adjusting for hourly mean temperature and relative humidity. Subgroup analyses stratified by age, sex and season were conducted to identify potential effect modifiers. RESULTS: A total of 292,743 cases of ED visits were included. The effects of size-specific PMs exhibited highly similar lag patterns, wherein estimated odds ratio (OR) experienced a slight rise from lag 0-3 to 4-6 h and subsequently attenuated to null along with the extension of lag periods. In comparison with PM2.5 and PM10, PM1 induced slightly larger effects on ED visits. At lag 0-3 h, for instance, ED visits increased by 1.49% (95% confidence interval: 1.18-1.79%), 1.39% (1.12-1.66%) and 1.18% (0.97-1.40%) associated with a 10-µg/m3 rise, respectively, in PM1, PM2.5 and PM10. We have detected a significant effect modification by season, with larger PM1-associated OR during the cold months (1.017, 1.013 to 1.021) compared with the warm months (1.010, 1.005 to 1.015). CONCLUSIONS: Our study provided brand-new evidence regarding the adverse impact of PM1 exposure on human health within several hours. PM-associated effects were significantly more potent during the cold months. These findings may aid health policy-makers in establishing hourly air quality standards and optimizing the allocation of emergency medical resources.

Post-lockdown SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid screening in nearly ten million residents of Wuhan, China.

Stringent COVID-19 control measures were imposed in Wuhan between January 23 and April 8, 2020. Estimates of the prevalence of infection following the release of restrictions could inform post-lockdown pandemic management. Here, we describe a city-wide SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid screening programme between May 14 and June 1, 2020 in Wuhan. All city residents aged six years or older were eligible and 9,899,828 (92.9%) participated. No new symptomatic cases and 300 asymptomatic cases (detection rate 0.303/10,000, 95% CI 0.270-0.339/10,000) were identified. There were no positive tests amongst 1,174 close contacts of asymptomatic cases. 107 of 34,424 previously recovered COVID-19 patients tested positive again (re-positive rate 0.31%, 95% CI 0.423-0.574%). The prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Wuhan was therefore very low five to eight weeks after the end of lockdown.

Smoking cessation and related factors in middle-aged and older Chinese adults: Evidence from a longitudinal study.

OBJECTIVES: There are more than 300 million smokers in China. This study aimed to evaluate the rate of smoking cessation, smoking relapse and related factors in middle-aged and older smokers in China. METHODS: We performed a secondary analysis of data from China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) that recruited a nationally representative sample of adults aged 45 and older. Participants were 3708 smokers in 2011 who completed two waves of follow-up interviews in 2013 and 2015. Self-reported quit and relapse rates at follow-ups were estimated. Multiple logistic regressions were conducted to identify factors associated with smoking cessation and relapse. RESULTS: The overall quit rate was 8.5% (95% CI 7.7% - 9.5%) at the 2-year follow-up in 2013, and 16.6% (95% CI 15.5% - 17.9%) at the 4-year follow up. Smoking cessation in 2013 was associated with not living in the northeast region (p = 0.003), fewer cigarettes smoked daily (p <0.001), and longer time to the first cigarette in the morning (p<0.001). Smoking cessation in 2015 was associated with older age (p = 0.049), smoking initiation at age ≥20 years (p<0.001), longer time to the first cigarette in the morning (p<0.001), and self-perceived poor health (p<0.001). Of the 317 participants who stopped smoking in 2013, 13.3% (95% CI 9.9% - 17.5%) relapsed by 2015. Smoking relapse was associated with younger age (p = 0.025), shorter time to the first cigarette in the morning (p = 0.003), and self-perception of not poor health (p = 0.018). CONCLUSION: The overall quit rate was 8.5% at the 2-year follow up, and 16.6% at the 4-year follow up in the middle-aged and older smokers, but 13% of quitters returned to smoking in two years. Successful smoking cessation was associated with older age, lower nicotine dependence, and self-perceived poor health.

Effect of acupuncture and auricular acupressure on smoking cessation: Protocol of a systematic review and Bayesian network meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Tobacco epidemic remains a major challenge to public health, with >7 million deaths attributable to tobacco smoking p.a. Quitting smoking is a proven way of reducing the harm of smoking. Nicotine replacement therapy (NRT), auricular acupressure and acupuncture are used for quit smoking, but it remains to be explored which is relatively more effective. Furthermore, a Bayesian network meta-analysis will be applied to determine the relative effects and/or safety of different smoking cessation treatments. METHODS/DESIGN: A literature search for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) will be performed in five electronic databases from inception to December 2019, including PubMed, the Cochrane library, EMBASE, Web of Science, and Chinese Biomedical Database (SinoMed). Cochrane Collaboration quality assessment tool will be used for the risk of bias assessment. A Bayesian network meta-analysis will be performed using WinBUGS 1.4.3, and Stata 14 will be applied to draw the network diagram, while RevMan 5.3.5 will be used to produce funnel plot for assessing the risk of publication bias. Recommended rating, development and grade methodology will also be utilized to assess the quality of evidence. RESULTS: We will evaluate the effect of different smoking cessation treatments (e.g., acupuncture, auricular acupressure, and NRT) by directly traditional meta-analysis and indirectly Bayesian network meta-analysis. CONCLUSION: Our study will provide smokers with the available evidence on the efficacy and safety of quitting regimens.

Publication and related biases in health services research: a systematic review of empirical evidence.

BACKGROUND: Publication and related biases (including publication bias, time-lag bias, outcome reporting bias and p-hacking) have been well documented in clinical research, but relatively little is known about their presence and extent in health services research (HSR). This paper aims to systematically review evidence concerning publication and related bias in quantitative HSR. METHODS: Databases including MEDLINE, EMBASE, HMIC, CINAHL, Web of Science, Health Systems Evidence, Cochrane EPOC Review Group and several websites were searched to July 2018. Information was obtained from: (1) Methodological studies that set out to investigate publication and related biases in HSR; (2) Systematic reviews of HSR topics which examined such biases as part of the review process. Relevant information was extracted from included studies by one reviewer and checked by another. Studies were appraised according to commonly accepted scientific principles due to lack of suitable checklists. Data were synthesised narratively. RESULTS: After screening 6155 citations, four methodological studies investigating publication bias in HSR and 184 systematic reviews of HSR topics (including three comparing published with unpublished evidence) were examined. Evidence suggestive of publication bias was reported in some of the methodological studies, but evidence presented was very weak, limited in both quality and scope. Reliable data on outcome reporting bias and p-hacking were scant. HSR systematic reviews in which published literature was compared with unpublished evidence found significant differences in the estimated intervention effects or association in some but not all cases. CONCLUSIONS: Methodological research on publication and related biases in HSR is sparse. Evidence from available literature suggests that such biases may exist in HSR but their scale and impact are difficult to estimate for various reasons discussed in this paper. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: PROSPERO 2016 CRD42016052333.

Statistical analyses and quality of individual participant data network meta-analyses were suboptimal: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Network meta-analyses using individual participant data (IPD-NMAs) have been increasingly used to compare the effects of multiple interventions. Although there have been many studies on statistical methods for IPD-NMAs, it is unclear whether there are statistical defects in published IPD-NMAs and whether the reporting of statistical analyses has improved. This study aimed to investigate statistical methods used and assess the reporting and methodological quality of IPD-NMAs. METHODS: We searched four bibliographic databases to identify published IPD-NMAs. The methodological quality was assessed using AMSTAR-2 and reporting quality assessed based on PRISMA-IPD and PRISMA-NMA. We performed stratified analyses and correlation analyses to explore the factors that might affect quality. RESULTS: We identified 21 IPD-NMAs. Only 23.8% of the included IPD-NMAs reported statistical techniques used for missing participant data, 42.9% assessed the consistency, and none assessed the transitivity. None of the included IPD-NMAs reported sources of funding for trials included, only 9.5% stated pre-registration of protocols, and 28.6% assessed the risk of bias in individual studies. For reporting quality, compliance rates were lower than 50.0% for more than half of the items. Less than 15.0% of the IPD-NMAs reported data integrity, presented the network geometry, or clarified risk of bias across studies. IPD-NMAs with statistical or epidemiological authors often better assessed the inconsistency (P = 0.017). IPD-NMAs with a priori protocol were associated with higher reporting quality in terms of search (P = 0.046), data collection process (P = 0.031), and syntheses of results (P = 0.006). CONCLUSIONS: The reporting of statistical methods and compliance rates of methodological and reporting items of IPD-NMAs were suboptimal. Authors of future IPD-NMAs should address the identified flaws and strictly adhere to methodological and reporting guidelines.

Future smoking prevalence by socioeconomic status in England: a computational modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The difference in smoking across socioeconomic groups is a major cause of health inequality. This study projected future smoking prevalence by socioeconomic status, and revealed what is needed to achieve the tobacco-free ambition (TFA) by 2030 in England. METHODS: Using data from multiple sources, the adult (≥18 years) population in England was separated into subgroups by smoking and highest educational qualification (HEQ). A discrete time state-transition model was used to project future smoking prevalence by HEQ deterministically and stochastically. RESULTS: In a status quo scenario, smoking prevalence in England is projected to be 10.8% (95% uncertainty interval: 9.1% to 12.9%) by 2022, 7.8% (5.5% to 11.0%) by 2030 and 6.0% (3.7% to 9.6%) by 2040. The absolute difference in smoking rate between low and high HEQ is reduced from 12.2% in 2016 to 7.9% by 2030, but the relative inequality (low/high HEQ ratio) is increased from 2.48 in 2016 to 3.06 by 2030. When applying 2016 initiation/relapse rates, achievement of the TFA target requires no changes to future cessation rates among adults with high qualifications, but increased rates of 37% and 149%, respectively, in adults with intermediate and low qualifications. CONCLUSIONS: If the current trends continue, smoking prevalence in England is projected to decline in the future, but with substantial differences across socioeconomic groups. Absolute inequalities in smoking are likely to decline and relative inequalities in smoking are likely to increase in future. The achievement of England's TFA will require the reduction of both absolute and relative inequalities in smoking by socioeconomic status.