Causal dynamics of sleep, circadian rhythm, and mood symptoms in patients with major depression and bipolar disorder: insights from longitudinal wearable device data.

BACKGROUND: Sleep and circadian rhythm disruptions are common in patients with mood disorders. The intricate relationship between these disruptions and mood has been investigated, but their causal dynamics remain unknown. METHODS: We analysed data from 139 patients (76 female, mean age = 23.5 ± 3.64 years) with mood disorders who participated in a prospective observational study in South Korea. The patients wore wearable devices to monitor sleep and engaged in smartphone-delivered ecological momentary assessment of mood symptoms. Using a mathematical model, we estimated their daily circadian phase based on sleep data. Subsequently, we obtained daily time series for sleep/circadian phase estimates and mood symptoms spanning >40,000 days. We analysed the causal relationship between the time series using transfer entropy, a non-linear causal inference method. FINDINGS: The transfer entropy analysis suggested causality from circadian phase disturbance to mood symptoms in both patients with MDD (n = 45) and BD type I (n = 35), as 66.7% and 85.7% of the patients with a large dataset (>600 days) showed causality, but not in patients with BD type II (n = 59). Surprisingly, no causal relationship was suggested between sleep phase disturbances and mood symptoms. INTERPRETATION: Our findings suggest that in patients with mood disorders, circadian phase disturbances directly precede mood symptoms. This underscores the potential of targeting circadian rhythms in digital medicine, such as sleep or light exposure interventions, to restore circadian phase and thereby manage mood disorders effectively. FUNDING: Institute for Basic Science, the Human Frontiers Science Program Organization, the National Research Foundation of Korea, and the Ministry of Health & Welfare of South Korea.

Noisy Delay Denoises Biochemical Oscillators.

Genetic oscillations are generated by delayed transcriptional negative feedback loops, wherein repressor proteins inhibit their own synthesis after a temporal production delay. This delay is distributed because it arises from a sequence of noisy processes, including transcription, translocation, translation, and folding. Because the delay determines repression timing and, therefore, oscillation period, it has been commonly believed that delay noise weakens oscillatory dynamics. Here, we demonstrate that noisy delay can surprisingly denoise genetic oscillators. Specifically, moderate delay noise improves the signal-to-noise ratio and sharpens oscillation peaks, all without impacting period and amplitude. We show that this denoising phenomenon occurs in a variety of well-studied genetic oscillators, and we use queueing theory to uncover the universal mechanisms that produce it.

Imputing missing sleep data from wearables with neural networks in real-world settings.

Sleep is a critical component of health and well-being but collecting and analyzing accurate longitudinal sleep data can be challenging, especially outside of laboratory settings. We propose a simple neural network model titled SOMNI (Sleep data restOration using Machine learning and Non-negative matrix factorIzation [NMF]) for imputing missing rest-activity data from actigraphy, which can enable clinicians to better handle missing data and monitor sleep-wake cycles of individuals with highly irregular sleep-wake patterns. The model consists of two hidden layers and uses NMF to capture hidden longitudinal sleep-wake patterns of individuals with disturbed sleep-wake cycles. Based on this, we develop two approaches: the individual approach imputes missing data based on the data from only one participant, while the global approach imputes missing data based on the data across multiple participants. Our models are tested with shift and non-shift workers' data from three independent hospitals. Both approaches can accurately impute missing data up to 24 hours of long dataset (>50 days) even for shift workers with extremely irregular sleep-wake patterns (AUC > 0.86). On the other hand, for short dataset (~15 days), only the global model is accurate (AUC > 0.77). Our approach can be used to help clinicians monitor sleep-wake cycles of patients with sleep disorders outside of laboratory settings without relying on sleep diaries, ultimately improving sleep health outcomes.

A real-time, personalized sleep intervention using mathematical modeling and wearable devices.

The prevalence of artificial light exposure has enabled us to be active any time of the day or night, leading to the need for high alertness outside of traditional daytime hours. To address this need, we developed a personalized sleep intervention framework that analyzes real-world sleep-wake patterns obtained from wearable devices to maximize alertness during specific target periods. Our framework utilizes a mathematical model that tracks the dynamic sleep pressure and circadian rhythm based on the user's sleep history. In this way, the model accurately predicts real-time alertness, even for shift workers with complex sleep and work schedules (N = 71, t = 13~21 days). This allowed us to discover a new sleep-wake pattern called the adaptive circadian split sleep, which incorporates a main sleep period and a late nap to enable high alertness during both work and non-work periods of shift workers. We further developed a mobile application that integrates this framework to recommend practical, personalized sleep schedules for individual users to maximize their alertness during a targeted activity time based on their desired sleep onset and available sleep duration. This can reduce the risk of errors for those who require high alertness during nontraditional activity times and improve the health and quality of life for those leading shift work-like lifestyles.

Beyond the Michaelis-Menten: Accurate Prediction of Drug Interactions Through Cytochrome P450 3A4 Induction.

The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) guidance has recommended several model-based predictions to determine potential drug-drug interactions (DDIs) mediated by cytochrome P450 (CYP) induction. In particular, the ratio of substrate area under the plasma concentration-time curve (AUCR) under and not under the effect of inducers is predicted by the Michaelis-Menten (MM) model, where the MM constant ( K m ) of a drug is implicitly assumed to be sufficiently higher than the concentration of CYP enzymes that metabolize the drug ( E T ) in both the liver and small intestine. Furthermore, the fraction absorbed from gut lumen ( F a ) is also assumed to be one because F a is usually unknown. Here, we found that such assumptions lead to serious errors in predictions of AUCR. To resolve this, we propose a new framework to predict AUCR. Specifically, F a was re-estimated from experimental permeability values rather than assuming it to be one. Importantly, we used the total quasi-steady-state approximation to derive a new equation, which is valid regardless of the relationship between K m and E T , unlike the MM model. Thus, our framework becomes much more accurate than the original FDA equation, especially for drugs with high affinities, such as midazolam or strong inducers, such as rifampicin, so that the ratio between K m and E T becomes low (i.e., the MM model is invalid). Our work greatly improves the prediction of clinical DDIs, which is critical to preventing drug toxicity and failure.

Combined multiple transcriptional repression mechanisms generate ultrasensitivity and oscillations.

Transcriptional repression can occur via various mechanisms, such as blocking, sequestration and displacement. For instance, the repressors can hold the activators to prevent binding with DNA or can bind to the DNA-bound activators to block their transcriptional activity. Although the transcription can be completely suppressed with a single mechanism, multiple repression mechanisms are used together to inhibit transcriptional activators in many systems, such as circadian clocks and NF-κB oscillators. This raises the question of what advantages arise if seemingly redundant repression mechanisms are combined. Here, by deriving equations describing the multiple repression mechanisms, we find that their combination can synergistically generate a sharply ultrasensitive transcription response and thus strong oscillations. This rationalizes why the multiple repression mechanisms are used together in various biological oscillators. The critical role of such combined transcriptional repression for strong oscillations is further supported by our analysis of formerly identified mutations disrupting the transcriptional repression of the mammalian circadian clock. The hitherto unrecognized source of the ultrasensitivity, the combined transcriptional repressions, can lead to robust synthetic oscillators with a previously unachievable simple design.

Universally valid reduction of multiscale stochastic biochemical systems using simple non-elementary propensities.

Biochemical systems consist of numerous elementary reactions governed by the law of mass action. However, experimentally characterizing all the elementary reactions is nearly impossible. Thus, over a century, their deterministic models that typically contain rapid reversible bindings have been simplified with non-elementary reaction functions (e.g., Michaelis-Menten and Morrison equations). Although the non-elementary reaction functions are derived by applying the quasi-steady-state approximation (QSSA) to deterministic systems, they have also been widely used to derive propensities for stochastic simulations due to computational efficiency and simplicity. However, the validity condition for this heuristic approach has not been identified even for the reversible binding between molecules, such as protein-DNA, enzyme-substrate, and receptor-ligand, which is the basis for living cells. Here, we find that the non-elementary propensities based on the deterministic total QSSA can accurately capture the stochastic dynamics of the reversible binding in general. However, serious errors occur when reactant molecules with similar levels tightly bind, unlike deterministic systems. In that case, the non-elementary propensities distort the stochastic dynamics of a bistable switch in the cell cycle and an oscillator in the circadian clock. Accordingly, we derive alternative non-elementary propensities with the stochastic low-state QSSA, developed in this study. This provides a universally valid framework for simplifying multiscale stochastic biochemical systems with rapid reversible bindings, critical for efficient stochastic simulations of cell signaling and gene regulation. To facilitate the framework, we provide a user-friendly open-source computational package, ASSISTER, that automatically performs the present framework.