Investigation of the structure and magnitude of time-varying uncontrolled confounding in simulated cohort data analyzed using g-computation.

BACKGROUND: When estimating the effect of time-varying exposures on longer-term outcomes, the assumption of conditional exchangeability or no uncontrolled confounding extends beyond baseline confounding to include time-varying confounding. We illustrate the structures and magnitude of uncontrolled time-varying confounding in exposure effect estimates obtained from g-computation when sequential conditional exchangeability is violated. METHODS: We used directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) to depict time-varying uncontrolled confounding. We performed simulations and used g-computation to quantify the effects of each time-varying exposure for each DAG type. Models adjusting all time-varying confounders were considered the true (bias-adjusted) estimate. The exclusion of time-varying uncontrolled confounders represented the biased effect estimate and an unmet 'no uncontrolled confounding' assumption. True and biased estimates were compared across DAGs, with different magnitudes of uncontrolled confounding. RESULTS: Time-varying uncontrolled confounding can present in several scenarios, including relationships into subsequently measured exposure(s), outcome, unmeasured confounder(s) and other measured confounder(s). In simulations, effect estimates obtained from g-computation were more biased in DAGs when the uncontrolled confounders were directly related to the outcome. Complex DAGs that included relationships between uncontrolled confounders and other variables and relationships where exposures caused uncontrolled confounders at the next time point resulted in the most biased effect estimates. In these complex DAGs, excluding uncontrolled confounders affected the multiple effect estimates. CONCLUSIONS: Time-varying uncontrolled confounding has the potential to substantially impact observed effect estimates. Given the importance of longitudinal studies in advising public health, the impact of time-varying uncontrolled confounding warrants more recognition and evaluation using quantitative bias analysis.

Association of Serum Triglycerides and Renal Outcomes among 1.6 Million US Veterans.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have suggested that metabolic syndrome (MetS) components are associated with renal outcomes, defined as a decline in kidney function or reaching end-stage renal disease (ESRD). Elevated triglycerides (TGs) are a component of MetS that have been reported to be associated with renal outcomes. However, the association of TGs with renal outcomes in chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients independent of the other components of the MetS remains understudied. METHODS: We examined 1,657,387 patients with data on TGs and other components of MetS in 2004-2006 and followed up until 2014. Patients with ESRD on renal replacement therapy were excluded. We examined time to ESRD, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) slope (renal function decline), and time to incident CKD (eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m2) among baseline normal kidney function (non-CKD) patients, using Cox or logistic regression, adjusted for clinical characteristics and MetS components. We also stratified analyses by the number of MetS components. RESULTS: The cohort was on average 64 years old and comprised 5% females, 15% African Americans, and 24% with nondialysis-dependent CKD. Among non-CKD patients, the adjusted relationship of TGs with time to incident CKD was strong and linear. Compared to TGs 120-<160 mg/dL, higher TGs were associated with a faster renal function decline across all CKD stages. Elevated TGs ≥240 mg/dL were associated with a faster time to ESRD among non-CKD and CKD stages 3A-3B, while the risk gradually declined to null or lower in CKD stages 4-5. Models were robust after MetS component adjustment and stratification. CONCLUSION: Independent of MetS components, high TGs levels were associated with a higher incidence of CKD and a faster renal function decline, yet showed no or inverse associations with time to ESRD in CKD stages 4-5. Examining the effects of TGs-lowering interventions on incident CKD and kidney preserving therapy warrants further studies including clinical trials.

Serum Low-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol and Cardiovascular Disease Risk Across Chronic Kidney Disease Stages (Data from 1.9 Million United States Veterans).

In the general population, elevated low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol levels are an important risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mortality; however, the association of LDL with mortality risk and cardiovascular events are less clear in chronic kidney disease (CKD). We sought to examine the relationship of LDL with mortality and rates of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) and non-atherosclerotic cardiovascular-related (non-ASCVD) hospitalizations across CKD stages. Our analytical cohort consisted of 1,972,851 United States veterans with serum LDL data between 2004 and 2006. Associations of LDL with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality across CKD stages were evaluated using Cox proportional hazard models with adjustment for demographics, comorbid conditions, smoking status, prescription of statins and non-statin lipid-lowering drugs, body mass index, albumin, high-density lipoprotein, and triglycerides. Associations between LDL and ASCVD and non-ASCVD hospitalizations were estimated using negative binomial regression models across CKD stages. The cohort consisted of 5% female, 14% Black, 29% diabetic, 33% statin-users, and 44% current smokers, with a mean patient age of 64 ± 14 years. Patients with high LDL (≥160 mg/dL) had a higher risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality as well as ASCVD and non-ASCVD hospitalization rates across all CKD stages compared with the reference (LDL 70 to <100 mg/dL). The associations with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality and ASCVD hospitalization rate were attenuated at higher CKD stages. These trends were reversed with amplification of the association of high LDL with non-ASCVD hospitalization at higher CKD stages. In conclusion, associations of LDL with mortality and both ASCVD and non-ASCVD hospitalizations are modified according to kidney disease stage.

Comparative Effectiveness of Dialysis Modality on Laboratory Parameters of Mineral Metabolism.

INTRODUCTION: Chronic kidney disease-mineral and bone disorders (CKD-MBD) are prevalent in patients undergoing maintenance dialysis. Yet, there are limited and mixed evidence on the effects of different dialysis modalities involving longer treatment times or higher frequencies on CKD-MBD markers. METHODS: This cohort study used data from 132,523 incident dialysis patients treated with any of the following modalities: conventional thrice-weekly in-center hemodialysis, nocturnal in-center hemodialysis (NICHD), home hemodialysis (HHD), or peritoneal dialysis (PD) from 2007 to 2011. We used marginal structural models fitted with inverse probability weights to adjust for fixed and time-varying confounding and informative censoring. We estimated the average effects of treatments with different dialysis modalities on time-varying serum concentrations of CKD-MBD markers: albumin-corrected calcium, phosphate, parathyroid hormone (PTH), and alkaline phosphatase (ALP) using pooled linear regression. RESULTS: Most of the cohort were exclusively treated with conventional in-center hemodialysis, while few were ever treated with NICHD or HHD. At the baseline, PD patients had the lowest mean and median values of PTH, while NICHD patients had the highest median values. During follow-up, compared to hemodialysis patients, patients treated with NICHD had lower mean serum PTH (19.8 pg/mL [95% confidence interval: 2.8, 36.8] lower), whereas PD and HHD patients had higher mean PTH (39.7 pg/mL [31.6, 47.8] and 51.2 pg/mL [33.0, 69.3] higher, respectively). Compared to hemodialysis patients, phosphate levels were lower for patients treated with NICHD (0.44 mg/dL [0.37, 0.52] lower), PD (0.15 mg/dL [0.12, 0.19] lower), or HHD (0.33 mg/dL [0.27, 0.40] lower). There were no clinically meaningful associations between dialysis modalities and concentrations of calcium or ALP. CONCLUSION: In incident dialysis patients, compared to treatment with conventional in-center hemodialysis, treatments with other dialysis modalities with longer treatment times or higher frequency were associated with different patterns of serum phosphate and PTH. Given the recent growth in the use of dialysis modalities other than hemodialysis, the associations between the treatment and the CKD-MBD markers warrant additional study.

Cohort Study and Bias Analysis of the Obesity Paradox Across Stages of Chronic Kidney Disease.

OBJECTIVE: In advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD), patients with obesity often have better outcomes than patients without obesity, often called the 'obesity paradox'. Yet, in CKD, the prevalence of inflammation increases as CKD progresses. Although a potential confounder, inflammation may be left unaccounted in obesity-mortality studies. We examined the associations of body mass index (BMI) with all-cause and cause-specific mortality across CKD stages, with consideration for uncontrolled confounding due to unmeasured inflammation. METHODS: We investigated 2,703,512 patients with BMI data between 2004 and 2006. We used Cox models to examine the associations of BMI with all-cause, cardiovascular, and cancer mortality, (ref: BMI 25-<30 kg/m2), adjusted for clinical characteristics and stratified by CKD stages. To address uncontrolled confounding, we performed bias analysis using a weighted probabilistic model of inflammation given the observed data applied to weighted Cox models. RESULTS: The cohort included 5% females and 14% African Americans. In adjusted analyses, the associations of the BMI with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality showed a reverse J-shape, where a higher BMI (>40 kg/m2) was associated with a higher risk. Conversely, a lower mortality risk was observed with a BMI 30-<35 kg/m2 across all CKD stages and for BMI >40 kg/m2 in CKD stage 4/5. Cancer mortality analyses showed an inverse relationship. Bias analysis for uncontrolled confounding suggested that independent of inflammation, the obesity paradox was present. CONCLUSION: We observed the presence of the obesity paradox in this study. This association was consistent in advanced CKD and in our bias analysis, suggesting that inflammation may not fully explain the observed BMI-mortality associations including in patients with CKD.

Association of pre-ESKD hyponatremia with post-ESKD outcomes among incident ESKD patients.

BACKGROUND: Hyponatremia is one of the most common electrolyte disturbances in advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD) and end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) patients, and has been shown to be associated with higher mortality risk. However, the relationship between hyponatremia during late-stage CKD and the risk of poor outcomes after ESKD transition is unknown. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study including 32 257 US veterans transitioning to ESKD from 1 October 2007 to 30 March 2015. We evaluated adjusted associations between the 3-month averaged pre-transition to ESKD serum sodium and all-cause mortality. Secondary outcomes included cardiovascular (CV) mortality, infection-related mortalities and hospitalization rate. RESULTS: Cohort mean ± standard deviation serum sodium was 139 ± 3 mEq/L, mean age was 67 ± 11 years, 98% were male and 28% were African American. Over a median (interquartile range) follow-up of 702 days (296, 1301) there were 17 162 deaths. Compared with the reference of 135 to <144 mEq/L, the lowest serum sodium group (<130 mEq/L) had a 54% higher all-cause mortality risk [hazard ratio 1.54 (95% confidence interval 1.34-1.76)] in the fully adjusted model. Associations were similar for CV and infection-related mortality, and hospitalization outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Hyponatremia prior to ESKD transition is associated with higher risk of all-cause, CV and infection-related mortalities, and hospitalization rates after ESKD transition. Future studies evaluating management of pre-ESKD hyponatremia may be indicated to improve patient outcomes for those transitioning to ESKD.

Gestational Diabetes Mellitus and the Risks of Overall and Type-Specific Cardiovascular Diseases: A Population- and Sibling-Matched Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate associations between gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) and various incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) end points, considering the effects of the mediating role of type 2 diabetes and shared environmental/familial factors. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: This population-based cohort study included 10,02,486 parous women in Denmark during 1978-2016. We used Cox regression to 1) examine the associations of GDM with overall and type-specific CVDs using full-cohort and sibling-matched analysis, 2) quantify the impact of type 2 diabetes after GDM using mediation analysis, and 3) assess whether these associations were modified by prepregnancy obesity or maternal history of CVD. RESULTS: Women with a history of GDM had a 40% increased overall CVD risk (hazard ratio [HR] 1.40, 95% CI 1.35-1.45). Sibling-matched analyses yielded similar results (HR 1.44, 95% CI 1.28-1.62). The proportion of association between GDM and overall CVD explained by subsequent type 2 diabetes was 23.3% (15.4-32.8%). We observed increased risks of specific CVDs, including 65% increased stroke risk and more than twofold risks for myocardial infarction, heart failure, and peripheral artery disease. The elevated overall risks were more pronounced among women with GDM and prepregnancy obesity or maternal history of CVD. CONCLUSIONS: A history of GDM was associated with increased risks of overall and specific CVDs. Increased risks were partly explained by subsequent type 2 diabetes, and the need to identify other pathways remains important. Continuous monitoring of women with a history of GDM, especially those with prepregnancy obesity or maternal history of CVD, may provide better opportunities to reduce their cardiovascular risk.

Risk of Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease and Nonatherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Hospitalizations for Triglycerides Across Chronic Kidney Disease Stages Among 2.9 Million US Veterans.

Background High triglycerides are associated with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risks. Among patients with advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD), the association of elevated triglycerides with mortality is diminished and, thus, we investigated the relationship of triglycerides with ASCVD and non-ASCVD hospitalizations across CKD stages. Methods and Results The cohort comprised 2 963 176 veterans who received care in 2004 to 2006 (baseline) and were followed up to 2014. Using Cox models, we evaluated baseline and time-varying triglycerides with time to ASCVD or non-ASCVD hospitalizations, stratified by baseline CKD stage, and adjusted for demographics and baseline or time-updated clinical characteristics. The cohort mean±SD age was 63±14 years, with a baseline median (interquartile range) triglycerides level of 127 (87-189) mg/dL, and a quarter had prevalent CKD. There was a linear association between baseline triglycerides and ASCVD risk; however, the risk with high triglycerides ≥240 mg/dL attenuated with worsening CKD stages (reference: triglycerides 120 to <160 mg/dL). Baseline triglycerides were associated with a U-shaped relationship for non-ASCVD events in patients with CKD 3A to 3B. Patients with late-stage CKD had lower to null relationships between baseline triglycerides and non-ASCVD events. Time-varying triglycerides associations with ASCVD were similar to baseline analyses. Yet, the time-varying triglycerides relationship with non-ASCVD events was inverse and linear, where elevated triglycerides were associated with lower risks. Conclusions Associations of higher triglycerides with ASCVD and non-ASCVD events declined across advancing CKD stages, where a lower to null risk was observed in patients with advanced CKD. Studies are needed to examine the impact of advanced CKD on triglycerides metabolism and its association with outcomes in this high-risk population.

Association of Pre-ESRD Serum Bicarbonate with Post-ESRD Mortality in Patients with Incident ESRD.

BACKGROUND: Serum bicarbonate or total carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations decline as chronic kidney disease (CKD) progresses and rise after dialysis initiation. While metabolic acidosis accelerates the progression of CKD and is associated with higher mortality among patients with end stage renal disease (ESRD), there are scarce data on the association of CO2 concentrations before ESRD transition with post-ESRD mortality. METHODS: A historical cohort from the Transition of Care in CKD (TC-CKD) study includes 85,505 veterans who transitioned to ESRD from October 1, 2007, through March 31, 2014. After 1,958 patients without follow-up data, 3 patients with missing date of birth, and 50,889 patients without CO2 6 months prior to ESRD transition were excluded, the study population includes 32,655 patients. Associations between CO2 concentrations averaged over the last 6 months and its rate of decline during the 12 months prior to ESRD transition and post-ESRD all-cause, cardiovascular (CV), and non-CV mortality were examined by using hierarchical adjustment with Cox regression models. RESULTS: The cohort was on average 68 ± 11 years old and included 29% Black veterans. Baseline concentrations of CO2 were 23 ± 4 mEq/L, and median (interquartile range) change in CO2 were -1.8 [-3.4, -0.2] mEq/L/year. High (≥28 mEq/L) and low (<18 mEq/L) CO2 concentrations showed higher adjusted mortality risk while there was no clear trend in the middle range. Consistent associations were observed irrespective of sodium bicarbonate use. There was also a U-shaped association between the change in CO2 and all-cause, CV, and non-CV mortality with the lowest risk approximately at -2.0 and 0.0 mEq/L/year among sodium bicarbonate nonusers and users, respectively, and the highest mortality was among patients with decline in CO2 >4 mEq/L/year. CONCLUSION: Both high and low pre-ESRD CO2 levels (≥28 and <18 mEq/L) during 6 months prior to dialysis transition and rate of CO2 decline >4 mEq/L/year during 1 year before dialysis initiation were associated with greater post-ESRD all-cause, CV, and non-CV mortality. Further studies are needed to determine the optimal management of CO2 in patients with advanced CKD stages transitioning to ESRD.

Primary causes of kidney disease and mortality in dialysis-dependent children.

BACKGROUND: Congenital anomalies of the kidney and urinary tract (CAKUT) is associated with a slower progression to end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in pre-dialysis patients. However, little is known about the associated mortality risks after transitioning to dialysis. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study included 0-21 year-old incident dialysis patients from the United States Renal Data System starting dialysis between 1995 and 2016. We examined the association of CAKUT vs. non-CAKUT with all-cause mortality, using Cox regression adjusted for case mix variables. We also examined the mortality risk associated with 14 non-CAKUT vs. CAKUT ESRD etiologies and under stratification by estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). RESULTS: Among 25,761 patients, the median (interquartile range) age was 17 (11-19) years, and 4780 (19%) had CAKUT. CAKUT was associated with lower mortality, with an adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) of 0.72 (95%CI, 0.64-0.81) (reference: non-CAKUT). In age-stratified analyses, CAKUT vs. non-CAKUT aHRs (95%CI) were 0.66 (0.54-0.80), 0.56 (0.39-0.80), 0.66 (0.50-0.86), and 0.97 (0.80-1.18) among patients < 6, 6-< 13, 13-< 18, and ≥ 18 years at dialysis initiation, respectively. Among non-CAKUT ESRD etiologies, the risk of mortality associated with primary glomerulonephritis (aHR, 0.93; 95%CI 0.80-1.09) and focal segmental glomerulosclerosis (aHR, 0.89; 95%CI, 0.75-1.04) were comparable or slightly lower compared to CAKUT, whereas most other primary causes were associated with higher mortality risk. While the CAKUT group had lower mortality risk compared to the non-CAKUT group patients with eGFR ≥5 mL/min/1.73m2, CAKUT was associated with higher mortality in patients with eGFR < 5 mL/min/1.73 m2. CONCLUSIONS: CAKUT is associated with lower mortality among children < 18 years old, but showed comparable mortality with non-CAKUT among patients ≥ 18 years old. ESRD etiology should be considered in risk assessment for children initiating dialysis.

Vascular access placement and mortality in elderly incident hemodialysis patients.

BACKGROUND: Arteriovenous fistulas (AVFs) are the preferred vascular access type in most hemodialysis patients. However, the optimal vascular access type in octogenarians and older (≥80 years) hemodialysis patients remains widely debated given their limited life expectancy and lower AVF maturation rates. METHODS: Among incident hemodialysis patients receiving care in a large national dialysis organization during 2007-2011, we examined patterns of vascular access type conversion in 1 year following dialysis initiation in patients <80 versus ≥80 years of age. Among a subcohort of patients ≥80 years of age, we examined the association between vascular access type conversion and mortality using multivariable survival models. RESULTS: In the overall cohort of 100 804 patients, the prevalence of AVF/arteriovenous graft (AVG) as the primary vascular access type increased during the first year of hemodialysis, but plateaued thereafter. Among 8356 patients ≥80 years of age and treated for >1 year, those with initial AVF/AVG use and placement of AVF from a central venous catheter (CVC) had lower mortality compared with patients with persistent CVC use. When the reference group was changed to patients who had AVF placement from a CVC in the first year of dialysis, those with initial AVF use had similar mortality. A longer duration of CVC use was associated with incrementally worse survival. CONCLUSIONS: Among incident hemodialysis patients ≥80 years of age, placement of an AVF from a CVC within the first year of dialysis had similar mortality compared with initial AVF use. Our data suggest that initial CVC use with later placement of an AVF may be an acceptable option among elderly hemodialysis patients.

Serum Endocannabinoid Levels in Patients With End-Stage Renal Disease.

CONTEXT: Previous studies have shown that the endocannabinoid system plays a major role in energy metabolism through the actions of its main mediators, 2-arachidonoyl-sn-glycerol (2-AG) and anandamide (AEA). OBJECTIVE: We examined serum levels of major endocannabinoid mediators and their association with clinical parameters in patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD). DESIGN AND SETTING: Serum concentrations of 2-AG and AEA were measured in patients on maintenance hemodialysis (MHD) and controls, and correlations with various clinical and laboratory indices were examined. 2-AG was also measured in age and sex-matched healthy subjects for comparison of levels in patients undergoing MHD. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Serum 2-AG. RESULTS: Serum 2-AG levels were significantly elevated in patients with ESRD compared with healthy controls. Higher levels of 2-AG were found in patients on MHD compared to healthy subjects, and similar findings were seen in a second set of subjects in independent analyses. Among 96 patients on MHD, 2-AG levels correlated significantly and positively with serum triglycerides (ρ = 0.43; P < 0.0001), body mass index (ρ = 0.40; P < 0.0001), and body anthropometric measures and negatively with serum high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (ρ = -0.33; P = 0.001) following adjustment for demographic and clinical variables. CONCLUSIONS: In patients on MHD, levels of serum 2-AG, a major endocannabinoid mediator, were increased. In addition, increasing serum 2-AG levels correlated with increased serum triglycerides and markers of body mass. Future studies will need to evaluate the potential mechanisms responsible for these findings.

Machine Learning to Identify Dialysis Patients at High Death Risk.

INTRODUCTION: Given the high mortality rate within the first year of dialysis initiation, an accurate estimation of postdialysis mortality could help patients and clinicians in decision making about initiation of dialysis. We aimed to use machine learning (ML) by incorporating complex information from electronic health records to predict patients at risk for postdialysis short-term mortality. METHODS: This study was carried out on a contemporary cohort of 27,615 US veterans with incident end-stage renal disease (ESRD). We implemented a random forest method on 49 variables obtained before dialysis transition to predict outcomes of 30-, 90-, 180-, and 365-day all-cause mortality after dialysis initiation. RESULTS: The mean (±SD) age of our cohort was 68.7 ± 11.2 years, 98.1% of patients were men, 29.4% were African American, and 71.4% were diabetic. The final random forest model provided C-statistics (95% confidence intervals) of 0.7185 (0.6994-0.7377), 0.7446 (0.7346-0.7546), 0.7504 (0.7425-0.7583), and 0.7488 (0.7421-0.7554) for predicting risk of death within the 4 different time windows. The models showed good internal validity and replicated well in patients with various demographic and clinical characteristics and provided similar or better performance compared with other ML algorithms. Results may not be generalizable to non-veterans. Use of predictors available in electronic medical records has limited the assessment of number of predictors. CONCLUSION: We implemented and ML-based method to accurately predict short-term postdialysis mortality in patients with incident ESRD. Our models could aid patients and clinicians in better decision making about the best course of action in patients approaching ESRD.

Racial and Ethnic Differences in Mortality Associated with Serum Potassium in Incident Peritoneal Dialysis Patients.

BACKGROUND: Abnormalities in serum potassium are risk factors for sudden cardiac death and arrhythmias among dialysis patients. Although a previous study in hemodialysis patients has shown that race/ethnicity may impact the relationship between serum potassium and mortality, the relationship remains unclear among peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients where the dynamics of serum potassium is more stable. METHODS: Among 17,664 patients who started PD between January 1, 2007 and December 31, 2011 in a large US dialysis organization, we evaluated the association of serum potassium levels with all-cause and arrhythmia-related deaths across race/ethnicity using time-dependent Cox models with adjustments for demographics. We also used restricted cubic spline functions for serum potassium levels to explore non-linear associations. RESULTS: Baseline serum potassium levels were the highest among Hispanics (4.2 ± 0.7 mEq/L) and lowest among non-Hispanic blacks (4.0 ± 0.7 mEq/L). Among 2,949 deaths during the follow-up of median 2.2 (interquartile ranges 1.3-3.2) years, 683 (23%) were arrhythmia-related deaths. Overall, both hyperkalemia and hypokalemia (i.e., serum potassium levels >5.0 and <3.5 mEq/L, respectively) were associated with higher all-cause and arrhythmia-related mortality. In a stratified analysis according to race/ethnicity, the association of hypokalemia with all-cause and arrhythmia-related mortality was consistent with an attenuation for arrhythmia-related mortality in non-Hispanic blacks. Hyperkalemia was associated with all-cause and arrhythmia-related mortality in non-Hispanic whites and non-Hispanic blacks, but no association was observed in Hispanics. CONCLUSION: Among incident PD patients, hypokalemia was consistently associated with all-cause and arrhythmia-related deaths irrespective of race/ethnicity. However, while hyperkalemia was associated with both death outcomes in non-Hispanic blacks and whites, it was not associated with either death outcome in Hispanic patients. Further studies are needed to demonstrate whether different strategies should be followed for the management of serum potassium levels according to race/ethnicity.

Serum triglycerides and mortality risk across stages of chronic kidney disease in 2 million U.S. veterans.

BACKGROUND: In the general population, elevated triglyceride (TG) levels are an important risk factor for cardiovascular disease and mortality. However, in chronic kidney disease, the association of serum TGs with mortality is less clear. OBJECTIVE: We sought to examine the association of TGs with mortality across chronic kidney disease (CKD) stages in a large cohort of U.S. veterans. METHODS: We examined 2,086,904 U.S. veterans with a TG measurement obtained between a baseline period of October 2004 and September 2006, with follow-up until December 2014 (median [interquartile range {IQR}]: 9.2 [6.5, 9.9] years). Associations of TGs with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality across CKD stages were evaluated using Cox proportional hazard models. RESULTS: Patients were 64 ± 14 years old with a median (IQR) baseline TG of 129 [88, 193] mg/dL and estimated glomerular filtration rate of 76 [61, 91] mL/min/1.73 m2. More advanced CKD was associated with higher odds of TGs ≥ 240 mg/dL. Low levels of TGs < 80 mg/dL were associated with a higher risk of mortality across all stages, whereas TG levels ≥ 240 mg/dL were only associated with a higher risk of all-cause mortality in non-CKD and CKD stages 3A, 3B, and 4 (reference: TG 120 to <160 mg/dL). The relationship of higher TGs with mortality incrementally attenuated across worsening stages of CKD and attenuated to the null among patients with CKD stage 5/end-stage renal disease. Similar results were observed for cardiovascular mortality, in strata by age and diabetes, and further adjustment for high-density lipoprotein and low-density lipoprotein. CONCLUSION: Associations of elevated TGs with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality were incrementally attenuated across more advanced stages of CKD.

Estimated GFR at Dialysis Initiation and Mortality in Children and Adolescents.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: The association of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) at dialysis therapy initiation with mortality among adult dialysis patients has been greatly debated, with some studies showing no benefit from early dialysis therapy initiation. However, this association has not been well investigated in pediatric dialysis patients. The objective of this study was to evaluate the mortality risk associated with eGFR at dialysis therapy initiation in children and adolescents with kidney failure. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: 9,963 incident dialysis patients aged 1 to 17 years in the US Renal Data System registry (1995-2016). PREDICTOR: eGFRs at dialysis therapy initiation calculated using the pediatric-specific bedside Schwartz equation (<5, 5-<7, 7-<9, 9-<12, and ≥12mL/min/1.73m2). OUTCOME: Time to all-cause death. ANALYTICAL APPROACH: Cox proportional hazards regression adjusted for case-mix variables, height, body mass index, hemoglobin level, and serum albumin level. RESULTS: Median eGFR was 7.8 (IQR, 5.6-10.5) mL/min/1.73m2 and median age was 13 (IQR, 9-16) years. 696 deaths were observed during the median follow-up of 1.4 (IQR, 0.7-2.7) years, and overall crude mortality rate was 31 per 1,000 patient-years. There appeared to be a trend toward higher mortality risk across higher eGFRs at dialysis therapy initiation. Compared with eGFRs of 7 to <9mL/min/1.73m2, eGFRs <5 and ≥12mL/min/1.73m2 were associated with lower and higher mortality, with adjusted HRs of 0.57 (95% CI, 0.43-0.74) and 1.31 (95% CI, 1.05-1.65), respectively. In age-stratified analysis, there were consistent relationships among patients 6 years and older while the eGFR-mortality association was attenuated among patients younger than 6 years (Pinteraction = 0.002). LIMITATIONS: Possible errors in eGFRs due to methods for serum creatinine measurement. Unmeasured confounders related to eGFR at dialysis therapy initiation. CONCLUSIONS: Higher eGFR at dialysis therapy initiation was associated with higher mortality risk. Further studies of eGFR at initiation are needed in pediatric dialysis patients, especially among those younger than 6 years.

Statin Therapy Before Transition to End-Stage Renal Disease With Posttransition Outcomes.

Background Although studies have shown that statin therapy in patients with non-dialysis-dependent chronic kidney disease was associated with a lower risk of death, this was not observed in dialysis patients newly initiated on statins. It is unclear if statin therapy benefits administered during the predialysis period persist after transitioning to end-stage renal disease. Methods and Results In 47 720 veterans who transitioned to end-stage renal disease during 2007 to 2014, we examined the association of statin therapy use 1 year before transition with posttransition all-cause and cardiovascular mortality and hospitalization incidence rates over the first 12 months of follow-up. Associations were examined using multivariable adjusted Cox proportional hazard models and negative binomial regressions. Sensitivity analyses included propensity score and subgroup analyses. The cohort's mean± SD age was 71±11 years, and the cohort included 4% women, 23% blacks, and 66% diabetics. Over 12 months of follow-up, there were 13 411 deaths, with an incidence rate of 35.3 (95% CI , 34.7-35.8) deaths per 100 person-years. In adjusted models, statin therapy compared with no statin therapy was associated with lower risks of 12-month all-cause (hazard ratio [95% CI], 0.79 [0.76-0.82]) and cardiovascular (hazard ratio [95% CI ], 0.83 [0.78-0.88]) mortality, as well as with a lower rate of hospitalizations (incidence rate ratio [95% CI ], 0.89 [0.87-0.92]) after initiating dialysis. These lower outcome risks persisted across strata of clinical characteristics, and in propensity score analyses. Conclusions Among veterans with non-dialysis-dependent chronic kidney disease, treatment with statin therapy within the 1 year before transitioning to end-stage renal disease is associated with favorable early end-stage renal disease outcomes.

Factors Associated With Withdrawal From Dialysis Therapy in Incident Hemodialysis Patients Aged 80 Years or Older.

OBJECTIVES: Among kidney disease patients ≥80 years progressing to end-stage renal disease, there is growing interest in conservative nondialytic management approaches. However, among those who have initiated hemodialysis, little is known about the impact of withdrawal from dialysis on mortality, nor the patient characteristics associated with withdrawal from dialysis. STUDY DESIGN: Historical cohort study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: We examined 133,162 incident hemodialysis patients receiving care within a large national dialysis organization from 2007 to 2011. MEASURES: We identified patients who withdrew from dialysis, either as a listed cause of death or censor reason. Incidence rates and subdistribution hazard ratios for withdrawal from dialysis as well as 4 other censoring reasons were examined across age groups. In addition, demographic and clinical characteristics associated with withdrawal from dialysis therapy among patients ≥80 years old was assessed using logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: Among 17,296 patients aged ≥80 years, 10% of patients withdrew from dialysis. Duration from the last hemodialysis treatment to death was 10 [interquartile range 6-16] days in patients with available data. Withdrawal from dialysis was the second and third most common cause of death among patients aged ≥80 years and <80 years, respectively. Among patients ≥80 years, minorities were much less likely than non-Hispanic whites to stop dialysis. Other factors associated with higher odds of dialysis withdrawal included having a central venous catheter compared to an arteriovenous fistula at dialysis start, dementia, living in mid-west regions, and less favorable markers associated with malnutrition-inflammation-cachexia syndrome such as higher white blood cell counts and lower body mass index, albumin, and normalized protein catabolic rate. CONCLUSION/IMPLICATIONS: Among very-elderly incident hemodialysis patients, dialysis therapy withdrawal exhibits wide variations across age, race and ethnicity, regions, cognitive status, dialysis vascular access, and nutritional status. Further studies examining implications of withdrawal from dialysis in older patients are warranted.

Vancomycin-Associated Acute Kidney Injury in a Large Veteran Population.

BACKGROUND: To determine the association of vancomycin with acute kidney injury (AKI) in relation to its serum concentration value and to examine the risk of AKI in patients treated with vancomycin when compared with a matched cohort of patients receiving non-glycopeptide antibiotics (linezolid/daptomycin). METHODS: From a cohort of > 3 million US veterans with baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate ≥60 mL/min/1.73 m2, we identified 33,527 patients who received either intravenous vancomycin (n = 22,057) or non-glycopeptide antibiotics (linezolid/daptomycin, n = 11,470). We examined the association of the serum trough vancomycin level recorded within the first 48 h of administration with subsequent AKI in all patients treated with vancomycin and association of vancomycin vs. non-glycopeptide antibiotics use with the risk of incident AKI. RESULTS: The overall multivariable adjusted ORs of AKI stages 1, 2, and 3 in patients on vancomycin vs. non-glycopeptides were 1.1 (1.1-1.2), 1.2 (1-1.4), and 1.4 (1.1-1.7), respectively. When examined in strata divided by vancomycin trough level, the odds of AKI were similar or lower in patients receiving vancomycin compared to non-glycopeptide antibiotics as long as serum vancomycin levels were ≤20 mg/L. However, in patients with serum vancomycin levels > 20 mg/L, the ORs of AKI stages 1, 2, and 3 in patients on vancomycin vs. non-glycopeptide antibiotics were 1.5 (1.4-1.7), 1.9 (1.5-2.3), and 2.7 (2-3.5), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Vancomycin use is associated with a higher risk of AKI when serum levels exceed > 20 mg/L.

Mean Corpuscular Volume and Mortality in Incident Hemodialysis Patients.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Anemia is common in patients with advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD). A proportion of patients present with macrocytic anemia, manifested by elevated mean corpuscular volume (MCV), which has been associated with worse outcomes in CKD patients. However, it is unknown whether elevated MCV is associated with higher mortality risk in incident hemodialysis (HD) patients. METHODS: This retrospective observational cohort study examined all-cause, cardiovascular, and infectious mortality associations with both baseline and time-varying MCV in 109,501 incident HD patients using Cox proportional hazards models with 3 levels of hierarchical multivariable adjustment. Odds ratios of high versus low baseline MCV were evaluated using logistic regression. RESULTS: The mean age of patients was 65 ± 15 (standard deviation) years and the cohort was 44% female, 58% diabetic, and 31% African American. Higher MCV was associated with older age, female sex, non-Hispanic White race-ethnicity, alcohol consumption, and having a decreased albumin or protein intake. Patients with higher MCV levels (> 98 fL) had a higher all-cause, cardiovascular, and infectious mortality risk in both baseline and time varying models, and across all levels of adjustment. In the fully adjusted models, compared to a reference of MCV 92-< 94 fL, patients with a baseline MCV > 100+ fL had a 28% higher risk of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 1.28, 95% CI 1.22-1.34), 27% higher risk of cardiovascular mortality (HR 1.27, 95% CI 1.18-1.36), and 18% higher risk of infectious mortality (HR 1.18, 95% CI 1.02-1.38). Associations of higher MCV with these adverse outcomes persisted across all examined subgroups of clinical characteristics. CONCLUSIONS: Higher MCV was associated with higher all-cause, cardiovascular, and infectious mortality in HD patients. Further investigation is necessary to understand the underlying nature of the observed association.