Influence of Seasonality and Public-Health Interventions on the COVID-19 Pandemic in Northern Europe.

BACKGROUND: Most government efforts to control the COVID-19 pandemic revolved around non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and vaccination. However, many respiratory diseases show distinctive seasonal trends. In this manuscript, we examined the contribution of these three factors to the progression of the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: Pearson correlation coefficients and time-lagged analysis were used to examine the relationship between NPIs, vaccinations and seasonality (using the average incidence of endemic human beta-coronaviruses in Sweden over a 10-year period as a proxy) and the progression of the COVID-19 pandemic as tracked by deaths; cases; hospitalisations; intensive care unit occupancy and testing positivity rates in six Northern European countries (population 99.12 million) using a population-based, observational, ecological study method. FINDINGS: The waves of the pandemic correlated well with the seasonality of human beta-coronaviruses (HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1). In contrast, we could not find clear or consistent evidence that the stringency of NPIs or vaccination reduced the progression of the pandemic. However, these results are correlations and not causations. IMPLICATIONS: We hypothesise that the apparent influence of NPIs and vaccines might instead be an effect of coronavirus seasonality. We suggest that policymakers consider these results when assessing policy options for future pandemics. LIMITATIONS: The study is limited to six temperate Northern European countries with spatial and temporal variations in metrics used to track the progression of the COVID-19 pandemic. Caution should be exercised when extrapolating these findings.

Unintended Consequences of COVID-19 Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) for Population Health and Health Inequalities.

Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020, governments around the world have adopted an array of measures intended to control the transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, using both pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). NPIs are public health interventions that do not rely on vaccines or medicines and include policies such as lockdowns, stay-at-home orders, school closures, and travel restrictions. Although the intention was to slow viral transmission, emerging research indicates that these NPIs have also had unintended consequences for other aspects of public health. Hence, we conducted a narrative review of studies investigating these unintended consequences of NPIs, with a particular emphasis on mental health and on lifestyle risk factors for non-communicable diseases (NCD): physical activity (PA), overweight and obesity, alcohol consumption, and tobacco smoking. We reviewed the scientific literature using combinations of search terms such as 'COVID-19', 'pandemic', 'lockdowns', 'mental health', 'physical activity', and 'obesity'. NPIs were found to have considerable adverse consequences for mental health, physical activity, and overweight and obesity. The impacts on alcohol and tobacco consumption varied greatly within and between studies. The variability in consequences for different groups implies increased health inequalities by age, sex/gender, socioeconomic status, pre-existing lifestyle, and place of residence. In conclusion, a proper assessment of the use of NPIs in attempts to control the spread of the pandemic should be weighed against the potential adverse impacts on other aspects of public health. Our findings should also be of relevance for future pandemic preparedness and pandemic response teams.

Dynamic of Tridacna spp. population variability in northern SCS over past 4500 years derived from AMS 14C dating.

The marine bivalve, Tridacna spp. is an iconic invertebrate of the Indo-Pacific coral reef communities from Eocene to present. However, field observations found that the population of Tridacna spp. has declined in recent decades and some species are now endangered in the northern South China Sea (SCS) of western Pacific, which are speculated to be connected with the human overfishing and/or climate changes. Thus distinguishing the impacts of human activities and climate changes on Tridacna spp. populations is essential for understanding the dynamic of Tridacna spp. population variability. Such effort will be important in launching conservation policies and restoring population. Here, extensive sampling was applied on sub-fossil Tridacna spp. shells at the North Reef of the northern SCS, and the long-lived (with a lifespan more than 30 years) Tridacna spp. population index (LTPI) over the past 4500 years was obtained based on the AMS14C dating method. The results show that LTPI has experienced several short-term collapses (shorter than 200 years) over the past 4500 years, which may be associated with excessive cold winter temperatures. Remarkably, LTPI usually recovered rapidly after the rewarming of temperatures, indicating a robust self-recruitment mechanisms in response to natural climate changes. However, the last catastrophic collapse of LTPI that occurred at around ~1820 CE - ~1900 CE didn't rebound despite the significant rise in temperature over the recent 100 years. The decoupling between LTPI and climate changes in recent hundred years was probably induced by the increased commercial fishing in the SCS, which has overwhelmed and exacerbated the self-recruitment mechanisms between Tridacna spp. population and climate changes.

Keeping it simple: the value of an irreducibly simple climate model.

Richardson et al. (Sci Bull, 2015. doi:10.1007/s11434-015-0806-z) suggest that the irreducibly simple climate model described in Monckton of Brenchley et al. (Sci Bull 60:122-135, 2015. doi:10.1007/s11434-014-0699-2) was not validated against observations, relying instead on synthetic test data based on underestimated global warming, illogical parameter choice and near-instantaneous response at odds with ocean warming and other observations. However, the simple model, informed by its authors' choice of parameters, usually hindcasts observed temperature change more closely than the general-circulation models, and finds high climate sensitivity implausible. With IPCC's choice of parameters, the model is further validated in that it duly replicates IPCC's sensitivity interval. Also, fast climate system response is consistent with near-zero or net-negative temperature feedback. Given the large uncertainties in the initial conditions and evolutionary processes determinative of climate sensitivity, subject to obvious caveats a simple sensitivity-focused model need not, and the present model does not, exhibit significantly less predictive skill than the general-circulation models.