Psychological well-being in Europe after the outbreak of war in Ukraine.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, has had devastating effects on the Ukrainian population and the global economy, environment, and political order. However, little is known about the psychological states surrounding the outbreak of war, particularly the mental well-being of individuals outside Ukraine. Here, we present a longitudinal experience-sampling study of a convenience sample from 17 European countries (total participants = 1,341, total assessments = 44,894, countries with >100 participants = 5) that allows us to track well-being levels across countries during the weeks surrounding the outbreak of war. Our data show a significant decline in well-being on the day of the Russian invasion. Recovery over the following weeks was associated with an individual's personality but was not statistically significantly associated with their age, gender, subjective social status, and political orientation. In general, well-being was lower on days when the war was more salient on social media. Our results demonstrate the need to consider the psychological implications of the Russo-Ukrainian war next to its humanitarian, economic, and ecological consequences.

Using machine learning to predict student retention from socio-demographic characteristics and app-based engagement metrics.

Student attrition poses a major challenge to academic institutions, funding bodies and students. With the rise of Big Data and predictive analytics, a growing body of work in higher education research has demonstrated the feasibility of predicting student dropout from readily available macro-level (e.g., socio-demographics or early performance metrics) and micro-level data (e.g., logins to learning management systems). Yet, the existing work has largely overlooked a critical meso-level element of student success known to drive retention: students' experience at university and their social embeddedness within their cohort. In partnership with a mobile application that facilitates communication between students and universities, we collected both (1) institutional macro-level data and (2) behavioral micro and meso-level engagement data (e.g., the quantity and quality of interactions with university services and events as well as with other students) to predict dropout after the first semester. Analyzing the records of 50,095 students from four US universities and community colleges, we demonstrate that the combined macro and meso-level data can predict dropout with high levels of predictive performance (average AUC across linear and non-linear models = 78%; max AUC = 88%). Behavioral engagement variables representing students' experience at university (e.g., network centrality, app engagement, event ratings) were found to add incremental predictive power beyond institutional variables (e.g., GPA or ethnicity). Finally, we highlight the generalizability of our results by showing that models trained on one university can predict retention at another university with reasonably high levels of predictive performance.

Measurement practices exacerbate the generalizability crisis: Novel digital measures can help.

Psychology's tendency to focus on confirmatory analyses before ensuring constructs are clearly defined and accurately measured is exacerbating the generalizability crisis. Our growing use of digital behaviors as predictors has revealed the fragility of subjective measures and the latent constructs they scaffold. However, new technologies can provide opportunities to improve conceptualizations, theories, and measurement practices.

Predicting personality from patterns of behavior collected with smartphones.

Smartphones enjoy high adoption rates around the globe. Rarely more than an arm's length away, these sensor-rich devices can easily be repurposed to collect rich and extensive records of their users' behaviors (e.g., location, communication, media consumption), posing serious threats to individual privacy. Here we examine the extent to which individuals' Big Five personality dimensions can be predicted on the basis of six different classes of behavioral information collected via sensor and log data harvested from smartphones. Taking a machine-learning approach, we predict personality at broad domain ([Formula: see text] = 0.37) and narrow facet levels ([Formula: see text] = 0.40) based on behavioral data collected from 624 volunteers over 30 consecutive days (25,347,089 logging events). Our cross-validated results reveal that specific patterns in behaviors in the domains of 1) communication and social behavior, 2) music consumption, 3) app usage, 4) mobility, 5) overall phone activity, and 6) day- and night-time activity are distinctively predictive of the Big Five personality traits. The accuracy of these predictions is similar to that found for predictions based on digital footprints from social media platforms and demonstrates the possibility of obtaining information about individuals' private traits from behavioral patterns passively collected from their smartphones. Overall, our results point to both the benefits (e.g., in research settings) and dangers (e.g., privacy implications, psychological targeting) presented by the widespread collection and modeling of behavioral data obtained from smartphones.

Sensing sociability: Individual differences in young adults' conversation, calling, texting, and app use behaviors in daily life.

Sociability as a disposition describes a tendency to affiliate with others (vs. be alone). Yet, we know relatively little about how much social behavior people engage in during a typical day. One challenge to documenting social behavior tendencies is the broad number of channels over which socializing can occur, both in-person and through digital media. To examine individual differences in everyday social behavior patterns, here we used smartphone-based mobile sensing methods (MSMs) in four studies (total N = 926) to collect real-world data about young adults' social behaviors across four communication channels: conversations, phone calls, text messages, and use of messaging and social media applications. To examine individual differences, we first focused on establishing between-person variability in daily social behavior, examining stability of and relationships among daily sensed social behavior tendencies. To explore factors that may explain the observed individual differences in sensed social behavior, we then expanded our focus to include other time estimates (e.g., times of the day, days of the week) and personality traits. In doing so, we present the first large-scale descriptive portrait of behavioral sociability patterns, characterizing the degree to which young adults engaged in social behaviors and mapping these behaviors onto self-reported personality dispositions. Our discussion focuses on how the observed sociability patterns compare to previous research on young adults' social behavior. We conclude by pointing to areas for future research aimed at understanding sociability using mobile sensing and other naturalistic observation methods for the assessment of social behavior. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved).

Predicting instructed simulation and dissimulation when screening for depressive symptoms.

The intentional distortion of test results presents a fundamental problem to self-report-based psychiatric assessment, such as screening for depressive symptoms. The first objective of the study was to clarify whether depressed patients like healthy controls possess both the cognitive ability and motivation to deliberately influence results of commonly used screening measures. The second objective was the construction of a method derived directly from within the test takers' responses to systematically detect faking behavior. Supervised machine learning algorithms posit the potential to empirically learn the implicit interconnections between responses, which shape detectable faking patterns. In a standardized design, faking bad and faking good were experimentally induced in a matched sample of 150 depressed and 150 healthy subjects. Participants completed commonly used questionnaires to detect depressive and associated symptoms. Group differences throughout experimental conditions were evaluated using linear mixed-models. Machine learning algorithms were trained on the test results and compared regarding their capacity to systematically predict distortions in response behavior in two scenarios: (1) differentiation of authentic patient responses from simulated responses of healthy participants; (2) differentiation of authentic patient responses from dissimulated patient responses. Statistically significant convergence of the test scores in both faking conditions suggests that both depressive patients and healthy controls have the cognitive ability as well as the motivational compliance to alter their test results. Evaluation of the algorithmic capability to detect faking behavior yielded ideal predictive accuracies of up to 89%. Implications of the findings, as well as future research objectives are discussed. Trial Registration The study was pre-registered at the German registry for clinical trials (Deutsches Register klinischer Studien, DRKS; DRKS00007708).

Enter the Wild: Autistic Traits and Their Relationship to Mentalizing and Social Interaction in Everyday Life.

Theories derived from lab-based research emphasize the importance of mentalizing for social interaction and propose a link between mentalizing, autistic traits, and social behavior. We tested these assumptions in everyday life. Via smartphone-based experience sampling and logging of smartphone usage behavior we quantified mentalizing and social interaction in our participants' natural environment. Mentalizing occurred less frequently than reasoning about actions and participants preferred to mentalize when alone. Autistic traits were negatively correlated with communication via smartphone. Yet, they were not associated with social media usage, a more indirect way of getting in touch with others. Our findings critically inform recent theories on social cognition, social behavior, and the role of autistic traits in these phenomena.