Alkalinity responses to climate warming destabilise the Earth's thermostat.

Alkalinity generation from rock weathering modulates Earth's climate at geological time scales. Although lithology is thought to dominantly control alkalinity generation globally, the role of other first-order controls appears elusive. Particularly challenging remains the discrimination of climatic and erosional influences. Based on global observations, here we uncover the role of erosion rate in governing riverine alkalinity, accompanied by areal proportion of carbonate, mean annual temperature, catchment area, and soil regolith thickness. We show that the weathering flux to the ocean will be significantly altered by climate warming as early as 2100, by up to 68% depending on the environmental conditions, constituting a sudden feedback of ocean CO2 sequestration to climate. Interestingly, warming under a low-emissions scenario will reduce terrestrial alkalinity flux from mid-latitudes (-1.6 t(bicarbonate) a-1 km-2) until the end of the century, resulting in a reduction in CO2 sequestration, but an increase (+0.5 t(bicarbonate) a-1 km-2) from mid-latitudes is likely under a high-emissions scenario, yielding an additional CO2 sink.

[Translation and culture sensitive adaptation of the PELI ("Preferences for Everyday Living Inventory") for nursing settings]. / Übersetzung und kultursensitive Anpassung des Preferences for Everyday Living Inventory© für pflegerische Versorgungssettings.

Translation and culture sensitive adaptation of the PELI ("Preferences for Everyday Living Inventory") for nursing settings Abstract. Background: The consideration of individual preferences of people with care needs in the sense of person-centred care requires a systematic recording of preferences related to everyday living. Therefore, the Preferences for Everyday Living Inventory (PELI) was developed in the USA. Aim: The aim was to translate the current version of the PELI-NH© (Nursing Home), into German (PELI-D) and to adapt this version in a culturally sensitive manner home care, adult day care and nursing home. Methods: The German translation of the PELI-NH© was carried out in eleven steps according to the ISPOR principles. Central steps were the forward translations, the expert panel, the cognitive debriefing and the backward translations. Results: As result of the translation the PELI-D (72 items) is the first comprehensive instrument in German language to assess everyday preferences of people with care needs in home care (55 items), adult day care (54 items) und nursing home (65 items). Conclusion: The selected procedure supports a critical reflection of the translation process and ensures the culturally sensitive comparability of the source language and the target language. The practicability of three setting specific versions of PELI-D needs be examined in further studies.

Intergenerational inequities in exposure to climate extremes.

Young generations are severely threatened by climate change.

[Preferences for everyday living written in the nursing record - An explorative document analysis in various nursing settings]. / Präferenzen des alltäglichen Lebens in der Pflegedokumentation.

Preferences for everyday living written in the nursing record - An explorative document analysis in various nursing settings Abstract. Background: In Germany, there was previously no instrument for the systematic recording of preferences for the everyday living of older and people in need of care. Subsequently, in a pilot study, an instrument was translated in a culturally sensitive way (PELI-D), piloted and tested psychometrically. In terms of documentation quality, it is important that the preferences recorded by nursing staff are written down in the nursing record using PELI-D, plausibly based on the nursing process. AIM: To find out which preferences, assessed by the nursing staff in the pilot study with the PELI-D, were written down in the nursing record. METHODS: An exploratory document analysis was carried out. Included were 13 nursing records and five discussion participants from five institutions in three nursing settings. The data were evaluated descriptively and by a structuring content analysis. RESULTS: A total of 2% of the preferences, which were assessed with the PELI-D, were found in the nursing records and may be due to the use of PELI-D. Preferences mainly from the categories "interventions" and "biography" were found in the nursing record. CONCLUSIONS: 98% of the preferences assessed with the PELI-D were not written down. This can probably be attributed to the fact that the PELI-D was an "innovation" for the nursing staff. Therefore, the execution of an implementation study seems to be reasonable to improve the plausibility of the captured PELI-D data in the nursing documentation. In the context of this, it is also recommended to analyze how the PELI-D influences nursing processes and contents of the nursing record.

Preferences for everyday living inventory (PELI): study protocol for piloting a culture-sensitive and setting-specific translated instrument in German care settings (PELI-D).

INTRODUCTION: Regardless of the healthcare setting, person-centred care and its implementation in caring for older people are a central issue for those who are responsible as professional caregivers and for those in need of care within the care process. Both aspects encompass the possibility of recognising personal preferences. To provide person-centred care, professional caregivers need to know about the individual preferences of the persons being cared for. Therefore, the PELI (an acronym for 'Preferences for Everyday Living Inventory') instrument was developed at the Polisher Research Institute (USA) for the systematic recording of individual preferences of older people in need of care. There is currently no comparable instrument available in the German language. METHODS: As part of the proposed project PELI-D, all versions of the original PELI instrument (nursing home version) were (1) culture-sensitively translated into German and will be (2) examined in a pilot study for their reliability, feasibility and practicability. For the project PELI-D, we worked together with our practice partners in Germany (Diaconia and Caritas in North Rhine-Westphalia) and collaborated with our partners in the USA who developed the PELI instrument. This study protocol focuses on the pilot study, which will be conducted by the German Center for Neurodegenerative Diseases (DZNE) (site Witten). ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study was approved by the internal quality control committee of the DZNE (ID number: WI029 PELI-D) and by the ethics committee of the German Society of Nursing Science Duisburg branch office (ID number: 18-010). All personal information will be deidentified with a specific identification code and stored in a secured location apart from the rest of the study data. Only qualified and study-related staff will be allowed access to the data. The results of the study will be distributed nationally and internationally through peer-reviewed journals, conferences and journals for nursing care practice.

State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes.

Global impact models represent process-level understanding of how natural and human systems may be affected by climate change. Their projections are used in integrated assessments of climate change. Here we test, for the first time, systematically across many important systems, how well such impact models capture the impacts of extreme climate conditions. Using the 2003 European heat wave and drought as a historical analogue for comparable events in the future, we find that a majority of models underestimate the extremeness of impacts in important sectors such as agriculture, terrestrial ecosystems, and heat-related human mortality, while impacts on water resources and hydropower are overestimated in some river basins; and the spread across models is often large. This has important implications for economic assessments of climate change impacts that rely on these models. It also means that societal risks from future extreme events may be greater than previously thought.

Hydrological droughts in the 21st century, hotspots and uncertainties from a global multimodel ensemble experiment.

Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are expected to modify the global water cycle with significant consequences for terrestrial hydrology. We assess the impact of climate change on hydrological droughts in a multimodel experiment including seven global impact models (GIMs) driven by bias-corrected climate from five global climate models under four representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Drought severity is defined as the fraction of land under drought conditions. Results show a likely increase in the global severity of hydrological drought at the end of the 21st century, with systematically greater increases for RCPs describing stronger radiative forcings. Under RCP8.5, droughts exceeding 40% of analyzed land area are projected by nearly half of the simulations. This increase in drought severity has a strong signal-to-noise ratio at the global scale, and Southern Europe, the Middle East, the Southeast United States, Chile, and South West Australia are identified as possible hotspots for future water security issues. The uncertainty due to GIMs is greater than that from global climate models, particularly if including a GIM that accounts for the dynamic response of plants to CO2 and climate, as this model simulates little or no increase in drought frequency. Our study demonstrates that different representations of terrestrial water-cycle processes in GIMs are responsible for a much larger uncertainty in the response of hydrological drought to climate change than previously thought. When assessing the impact of climate change on hydrology, it is therefore critical to consider a diverse range of GIMs to better capture the uncertainty.

Multisectoral climate impact hotspots in a warming world.

The impacts of global climate change on different aspects of humanity's diverse life-support systems are complex and often difficult to predict. To facilitate policy decisions on mitigation and adaptation strategies, it is necessary to understand, quantify, and synthesize these climate-change impacts, taking into account their uncertainties. Crucial to these decisions is an understanding of how impacts in different sectors overlap, as overlapping impacts increase exposure, lead to interactions of impacts, and are likely to raise adaptation pressure. As a first step we develop herein a framework to study coinciding impacts and identify regional exposure hotspots. This framework can then be used as a starting point for regional case studies on vulnerability and multifaceted adaptation strategies. We consider impacts related to water, agriculture, ecosystems, and malaria at different levels of global warming. Multisectoral overlap starts to be seen robustly at a mean global warming of 3 °C above the 1980-2010 mean, with 11% of the world population subject to severe impacts in at least two of the four impact sectors at 4 °C. Despite these general conclusions, we find that uncertainty arising from the impact models is considerable, and larger than that from the climate models. In a low probability-high impact worst-case assessment, almost the whole inhabited world is at risk for multisectoral pressures. Hence, there is a pressing need for an increased research effort to develop a more comprehensive understanding of impacts, as well as for the development of policy measures under existing uncertainty.

Global water resources affected by human interventions and climate change.

Humans directly change the dynamics of the water cycle through dams constructed for water storage, and through water withdrawals for industrial, agricultural, or domestic purposes. Climate change is expected to additionally affect water supply and demand. Here, analyses of climate change and direct human impacts on the terrestrial water cycle are presented and compared using a multimodel approach. Seven global hydrological models have been forced with multiple climate projections, and with and without taking into account impacts of human interventions such as dams and water withdrawals on the hydrological cycle. Model results are analyzed for different levels of global warming, allowing for analyses in line with temperature targets for climate change mitigation. The results indicate that direct human impacts on the water cycle in some regions, e.g., parts of Asia and in the western United States, are of the same order of magnitude, or even exceed impacts to be expected for moderate levels of global warming (+2 K). Despite some spread in model projections, irrigation water consumption is generally projected to increase with higher global mean temperatures. Irrigation water scarcity is particularly large in parts of southern and eastern Asia, and is expected to become even larger in the future.

Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change.

We compare ensembles of water supply and demand projections from 10 global hydrological models and six global gridded crop models. These are produced as part of the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project, with coordination from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project, and driven by outputs of general circulation models run under representative concentration pathway 8.5 as part of the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Models project that direct climate impacts to maize, soybean, wheat, and rice involve losses of 400-1,400 Pcal (8-24% of present-day total) when CO2 fertilization effects are accounted for or 1,400-2,600 Pcal (24-43%) otherwise. Freshwater limitations in some irrigated regions (western United States; China; and West, South, and Central Asia) could necessitate the reversion of 20-60 Mha of cropland from irrigated to rainfed management by end-of-century, and a further loss of 600-2,900 Pcal of food production. In other regions (northern/eastern United States, parts of South America, much of Europe, and South East Asia) surplus water supply could in principle support a net increase in irrigation, although substantial investments in irrigation infrastructure would be required.

First look at changes in flood hazard in the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project ensemble.

Climate change due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of precipitation events, which is likely to affect the probability of flooding into the future. In this paper we use river flow simulations from nine global hydrology and land surface models to explore uncertainties in the potential impacts of climate change on flood hazard at global scale. As an indicator of flood hazard we looked at changes in the 30-y return level of 5-d average peak flows under representative concentration pathway RCP8.5 at the end of this century. Not everywhere does climate change result in an increase in flood hazard: decreases in the magnitude and frequency of the 30-y return level of river flow occur at roughly one-third (20-45%) of the global land grid points, particularly in areas where the hydrograph is dominated by the snowmelt flood peak in spring. In most model experiments, however, an increase in flooding frequency was found in more than half of the grid points. The current 30-y flood peak is projected to occur in more than 1 in 5 y across 5-30% of land grid points. The large-scale patterns of change are remarkably consistent among impact models and even the driving climate models, but at local scale and in individual river basins there can be disagreement even on the sign of change, indicating large modeling uncertainty which needs to be taken into account in local adaptation studies.

Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change.

Water scarcity severely impairs food security and economic prosperity in many countries today. Expected future population changes will, in many countries as well as globally, increase the pressure on available water resources. On the supply side, renewable water resources will be affected by projected changes in precipitation patterns, temperature, and other climate variables. Here we use a large ensemble of global hydrological models (GHMs) forced by five global climate models and the latest greenhouse-gas concentration scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways) to synthesize the current knowledge about climate change impacts on water resources. We show that climate change is likely to exacerbate regional and global water scarcity considerably. In particular, the ensemble average projects that a global warming of 2 °C above present (approximately 2.7 °C above preindustrial) will confront an additional approximate 15% of the global population with a severe decrease in water resources and will increase the number of people living under absolute water scarcity (<500 m(3) per capita per year) by another 40% (according to some models, more than 100%) compared with the effect of population growth alone. For some indicators of moderate impacts, the steepest increase is seen between the present day and 2 °C, whereas indicators of very severe impacts increase unabated beyond 2 °C. At the same time, the study highlights large uncertainties associated with these estimates, with both global climate models and GHMs contributing to the spread. GHM uncertainty is particularly dominant in many regions affected by declining water resources, suggesting a high potential for improved water resource projections through hydrological model development.