Predicting mortality within 1 year of ART initiation in children and adolescents living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa: a retrospective observational cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Differentiated service delivery (DSD) for children and adolescents living with HIV can improve targeted resource use. We derived a mortality prediction score to guide clinical decision making for children and adolescents living with HIV. METHODS: Data for this retrospective observational cohort study were evaluated for all children and adolescents living with HIV and initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART); aged 0-19 years; and enrolled at Baylor clinics in Eswatini, Malawi, Lesotho, Tanzania, and Uganda between 2005 and 2020. Data for clinical prediction, including anthropometric values, physical examination, ART, WHO stage, and laboratory tests were captured at ART initiation. Backward stepwise variable selection and logistic regression were performed to develop predictive models for mortality within 1 year of ART initiation. Probabilities of mortality were generated, compared with true outcomes, internally validated, and evaluated against WHO advanced HIV criteria. FINDINGS: The study population included 16 958 children and adolescents living with HIV and initiated on ART between May 18, 2005, and Dec 18, 2020. Predictive variables for the most accurate model included: age, CD4 percentage, white blood cell count, haemoglobin concentration, platelet count, and BMI Z score as continuous variables, and WHO clinical stage and oedema, abnormal muscle tone and respiratory distress on examination as categorical variables. The area under the curve (AUC) of the predictive model was 0·851 (95% CI 0·839-0·863) in the training set and 0·822 (0·800-0·845) in the test set, compared with 0·606 (0·595-0·617) for the WHO advanced HIV criteria (p<0·0001). INTERPRETATION: This study evaluated a large, multinational population to derive a mortality prediction tool for children and adolescents living with HIV. The model more accurately predicted clinical outcomes than the WHO advanced HIV criteria and has the potential to improve DSD for children and adolescents living with HIV in high-burden settings. FUNDING: National Institute of Health Fogarty International Center.

Realizing the Promise of Dolutegravir in Effectively Treating Children and Adolescents Living With HIV in Real-world Settings in 6 Countries in Eastern and Southern Africa.

BACKGROUND: Despite encouraging results from clinical trials and in high-income countries, large-scale data on the effectiveness and safety of dolutegravir (DTG) in children and adolescents living with HIV (CALHIV) are lacking in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). METHODS: Retrospective analysis was performed among CALHIV 0-19 years old and weighing greater than or equal to 20 kg who received DTG from 2017 to 2020 at sites in Botswana, Eswatini, Lesotho, Malawi, Tanzania and Uganda to determine effectiveness, safety and predictors of viral load suppression (VLS) among CALHIV using DTG, including through single drug substitutions (SDS). RESULTS: Among 9419 CALHIV using DTG, 7898 had a documented post-DTG VL, and VLS post-DTG was 93.4% (7378/7898). VLS for antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiations was 92.4% (246/263), and VLS was maintained for the ART-experienced [92.9% (7026/7560) pre- vs. 93.5% (7071/7560) post-DTG; P = 0.14). Among previously unsuppressed, 79.8% (426/534) achieved VLS with DTG. Only 5 patients reported a Grade 3 or 4 adverse event (0.057 per 100 patient-years) requiring DTG discontinuation. History of protease inhibitor-based ART [odds ratio (OR) = 1.53; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.16-2.03], care in Tanzania (OR = 5.45; 95% CI: 3.41-8.70), and being 15-19 years old (OR = 1.31; 95% CI: 1.03-1.65) were associated with gain of VLS post-DTG. Predictors of VLS on DTG included VLS before DTG (OR = 3.87; 95% CI: 3.03-4.95) and using the once-daily, single tab tenofovir-lamivudine-DTG regimen (OR = 1.78; 95% CI: 1.43-2.22). SDS maintained VLS [95.9% (2032/2120) pre- vs. 95.0% (2014/2120) post-SDS with DTG; P = 0.19], and 83.0% (73/88) of unsuppressed gained VLS using SDS with DTG. CONCLUSIONS: We found DTG to be highly effective and safe within our cohort of CALHIV in LMICs. These findings can empower clinicians to prescribe DTG confidently to eligible CALHIV.

Optimal Timing of Antiretroviral Therapy Initiation in Children and Adolescents With Human Immunodeficiency Virus-Associated Pulmonary Tuberculosis.

BACKGROUND: There is insufficient evidence in children and adolescents with human immunodeficiency virus (CAHIV) to guide the timing of antiretroviral treatment (ART) initiation after starting treatment for pulmonary tuberculosis (pTB). To address this knowledge gap, we evaluated the risk of mortality associated with timing of ART initiation in ART-naive CAHIV treated for pTB. METHODS: Data were extracted from electronic medical records of ART-naive patients, aged 0-19 years, who were treated for HIV-associated pTB at Baylor Centers of Excellence in Botswana, Eswatini, Malawi, Lesotho, Tanzania, or Uganda between 2013 and 2020. Data were analyzed against a primary outcome of all-cause mortality with unadjusted Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox proportional hazard models. RESULTS: The study population included 774 CAHIV with variable intervals to ART initiation after starting TB treatment: <2 weeks (n = 266), 2 weeks to 2 months (n = 398), >2 months (n = 66), and no ART initiated (n = 44). Adjusted Cox proportional hazards models demonstrated increased mortality 1 year from TB treatment initiation in children never starting ART (adjusted HR [aHR]: 2.67; 95% CI: 1.03, 6.94) versus children initiating ART between 2 weeks and 2 months from TB treatment initiation. Mortality risk did not differ for the <2-weeks group (aHR: 1.02; 95% CI: .55, 1.89) versus the group initiating ART between 2 weeks and 2 months. CONCLUSIONS: This retrospective study demonstrated no increase in mortality among CAHIV initiating ART <2 weeks from TB treatment initiation. Given the broad health benefits of ART, this evidence supports the recent WHO recommendation for CAHIV to initiate ART within 2 weeks of initiating TB treatment.

Achieving Antiretroviral Therapy Uptake and Viral Suppression Among Children and Adolescents Living With HIV in the UNAIDS 90-90-90 Era Across Six Countries in Eastern and Southern Africa-Lessons From the BIPAI Network.

BACKGROUND: Although achievements have been made globally since the UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets were announced, paediatric data remain sparse. We describe achievements toward antiretroviral therapy (ART) uptake and viral load (VL) suppression, existing gaps, and potential best practices among children and adolescents living with HIV (CALHIV) across 6 Eastern and Southern African countries. SETTING: Baylor College of Medicine International Paediatric AIDS Initiative Network sites in Botswana, Eswatini, Lesotho, Malawi, Tanzania, and Uganda. METHODS: We performed retrospective data analysis among CALHIV ages 0-19 years between 2014 and 2019. RESULTS: A total of 25,370 CALHIV received care, 85.8% (21,773/25,370) received ART, 84.4% (18,376/21,773) had documented VL results, and 74.6% (13,715/18,376) had VL < 1000 cps/mL. By 2019, the pooled proportion of CALHIV receiving ART and having viral suppression increased to 99.8% [95% confidence interval (CI): 98.1 to 100.0] and 89.8% (95 CI: 88.2 to 91.5) respectively. Lower rates of viral suppression and higher lost to follow-up (LTFU) were seen in the 0-4-year and 15-19-year cohorts. CALHIV on ART not achieving viral suppression were younger, received care in Malawi or Mbeya, had a history of tuberculosis, lower rates of integrase-strand inhibitor-based ART, and were on ART for shorter durations. Best practices reported included adopting universal ART, ART optimization with protease inhibitor-based and/or dolutegravir-based regimens, peer-supported activities, child/adolescent friendly services, community-supported activities, and technology-driven quality improvement activities and digital solutions. CONCLUSIONS: High rates of CALHIV receiving ART and having viral suppression can be achieved in settings in Eastern and Southern Africa through using pediatric best practices. Increased efforts must be made to address LTFU and to support under-fives and adolescents.