Proteomic prediction of incident heart failure and its main subtypes.

AIM: To examine the ability of serum proteins in predicting future heart failure (HF) events, including HF with reduced or preserved ejection fraction (HFrEF or HFpEF), in relation to event time, and with or without considering established HF-associated clinical variables. METHODS AND RESULTS: In the prospective population-based Age, Gene/Environment Susceptibility Reykjavik Study (AGES-RS), 440 individuals developed HF after their first visit with a median follow-up of 5.45 years. Among them, 167 were diagnosed with HFrEF and 188 with HFpEF. A least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model with non-parametric bootstrap were used to select predictors from an analysis of 4782 serum proteins, and several pre-established clinical parameters linked to HF. A subset of 8-10 distinct or overlapping serum proteins predicted different future HF outcomes, and C-statistics were used to assess discrimination, revealing proteins combined with a C-index of 0.80 for all incident HF, 0.78 and 0.80 for incident HFpEF or HFrEF, respectively. In the AGES-RS, protein panels alone encompassed the risk contained in the clinical information and improved the performance characteristics of prediction models based on N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide and clinical risk factors. Finally, the protein predictors performed particularly well close to the time of an HF event, an outcome that was replicated in the Cardiovascular Health Study. CONCLUSION: A small number of circulating proteins accurately predicted future HF in the AGES-RS cohort of older adults, and they alone encompass the risk information found in a collection of clinical data. Incident HF events were predicted up to 8 years, with predictor performance significantly improving for events occurring less than 1 year ahead, a finding replicated in an external cohort study.

A proteomic analysis of atrial fibrillation in a prospective longitudinal cohort (AGES-Reykjavik study).

AIMS: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with high risk of comorbidities and mortality. Our aim was to examine causal and predictive relationships between 4137 serum proteins and incident AF in the prospective population-based Age, Gene/Environment Susceptibility-Reykjavik (AGES-Reykjavik) study. METHODS AND RESULTS: The study included 4765 participants, of whom 1172 developed AF. Cox proportional hazards regression models were fitted for 4137 baseline protein measurements adjusting for known risk factors. Protein associations were tested for replication in the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS). Causal relationships were examined in a bidirectional, two-sample Mendelian randomization analysis. The time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC)-statistic was examined as protein levels and an AF-polygenic risk score (PRS) were added to clinical risk models. The proteomic signature of incident AF consisted of 76 proteins, of which 63 (83%) were novel and 29 (38%) were replicated in CHS. The signature included both N-terminal prohormone of brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP)-dependent (e.g. CHST15, ATP1B1, and SVEP1) and independent components (e.g. ASPN, AKR1B, and LAMA1/LAMB1/LAMC1). Nine causal candidates were identified (TAGLN, WARS, CHST15, CHMP3, COL15A1, DUSP13, MANBA, QSOX2, and SRL). The reverse causal analysis suggested that most AF-associated proteins were affected by the genetic liability to AF. N-terminal prohormone of brain natriuretic peptide improved the prediction of incident AF events close to baseline with further improvements gained by the AF-PRS at all time points. CONCLUSION: The AF proteomic signature includes biologically relevant proteins, some of which may be causal. It mainly reflects an NT-proBNP-dependent consequence of the genetic liability to AF. N-terminal prohormone of brain natriuretic peptide is a promising marker for incident AF in the short term, but risk assessment incorporating a PRS may improve long-term risk assessment.

Serum proteomics reveals APOE dependent and independent protein signatures in Alzheimer's disease.

The current demand for early intervention, prevention, and treatment of late onset Alzheimer's disease (LOAD) warrants deeper understanding of the underlying molecular processes which could contribute to biomarker and drug target discovery. Utilizing high-throughput proteomic measurements in serum from a prospective population-based cohort of older adults (n=5,294), we identified 303 unique proteins associated with incident LOAD (median follow-up 12.8 years). Over 40% of these proteins were associated with LOAD independently of APOE-ε4 carrier status. These proteins were implicated in neuronal processes and overlapped with protein signatures of LOAD in brain and cerebrospinal fluid. We found 17 proteins which LOAD-association was strongly dependent on APOE-ε4 carrier status. Most of them showed consistent associations with LOAD in cerebrospinal fluid and a third had brain-specific gene expression. Remarkably, four proteins in this group (TBCA, ARL2, S100A13 and IRF6) were downregulated by APOE-ε4 yet upregulated as a consequence of LOAD as determined in a bi-directional Mendelian randomization analysis, reflecting a potential response to the disease onset. Accordingly, the direct association of these proteins to LOAD was reversed upon APOE-ε4 genotype adjustment, a finding which we replicate in an external cohort (n=719). Our findings provide an insight into the dysregulated pathways that may lead to the development and early detection of LOAD, including those both independent and dependent on APOE-ε4. Importantly, many of the LOAD-associated proteins we find in the circulation have been found to be expressed - and have a direct link with AD - in brain tissue. Thus, the proteins identified here, and their upstream modulating pathways, provide a new source of circulating biomarker and therapeutic target candidates for LOAD.