A Bayesian non-stationary heteroskedastic time series model for multivariate critical care data.

We propose a multivariate GARCH model for non-stationary health time series by modifying the observation-level variance of the standard state space model. The proposed model provides an intuitive and novel way of dealing with heteroskedastic data using the conditional nature of state-space models. We follow the Bayesian paradigm to perform the inference procedure. In particular, we use Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to obtain samples from the resultant posterior distribution. We use the forward filtering backward sampling algorithm to efficiently obtain samples from the posterior distribution of the latent state. The proposed model also handles missing data in a fully Bayesian fashion. We validate our model on synthetic data and analyze a data set obtained from an intensive care unit in a Montreal hospital and the MIMIC dataset. We further show that our proposed models offer better performance, in terms of WAIC than standard state space models. The proposed model provides a new way to model multivariate heteroskedastic non-stationary time series data. Model comparison can then be easily performed using the WAIC.

The Continuing Challenges of Studying Parallel Behaviours in Humans and Animal Models.

The use of animal models continues to be essential for carrying out research into clinical phenomena, including addiction. However, the complexity of the clinical condition inevitably means that even the best animal models are inadequate, and this may go some way to account for the apparent failures of discoveries from animal models, including the identification of potential novel therapies, to translate to the clinic. We argue here that it is overambitious and misguided in the first place to attempt to model complex, multifacetted human disorders such as addiction in animals, and especially in rodents, and that all too frequently "validity" of such models is limited to superficial similarities, referred to as "face validity", that reflect quite different underlying phenomena and biological processes from the clinical situation. Instead, a more profitable approach is to identify (a) well-defined intermediate human behavioural phenotypes that reflect defined, limited aspects of, or contributors to, the human clinical disorder, and (b) to develop animal models that are homologous with those discrete human behavioural phenotypes in terms of psychological processes, and underlying neurobiological mechanisms. Examples of past and continuing weaknesses and suggestions for more limited approaches that may allow better homology between the test animal and human condition are made.

Identifying Differential Methylation in Cancer Epigenetics via a Bayesian Functional Regression Model.

DNA methylation plays an essential role in regulating gene activity, modulating disease risk, and determining treatment response. We can obtain insight into methylation patterns at a single-nucleotide level via next-generation sequencing technologies. However, complex features inherent in the data obtained via these technologies pose challenges beyond the typical big data problems. Identifying differentially methylated cytosines (dmc) or regions is one such challenge. We have developed DMCFB, an efficient dmc identification method based on Bayesian functional regression, to tackle these challenges. Using simulations, we establish that DMCFB outperforms current methods and results in better smoothing and efficient imputation. We analyzed a dataset of patients with acute promyelocytic leukemia and control samples. With DMCFB, we discovered many new dmcs and, more importantly, exhibited enhanced consistency of differential methylation within islands and their adjacent shores. Additionally, we detected differential methylation at more of the binding sites of the fused gene involved in this cancer.

The time-dependent Poisson-gamma model in practice: Recruitment forecasting in HIV trials.

Despite a growing body of literature in the area of recruitment modeling for multicenter studies, in practice, statistical models to predict enrollments are rarely used and when they are, they often rely on unrealistic assumptions. The time-dependent Poisson-Gamma model (tPG) is a recently developed flexible methodology which allows analysts to predict recruitments in an ongoing multicenter trial, and its performance has been validated on data from a cohort study. In this article, we illustrate and further validate the tPG model on recruitment data from randomized controlled trials. Additionally, in the appendix, we provide a practical and easy to follow guide to its implementation via the tPG R package. To validate the model, we show the predictive performance of the proposed methodology in forecasting the recruitment process of two HIV vaccine trials conducted by the HIV Vaccine Trials Network in multiple Sub-Saharan countries.

The survival function NPMLE for combined right-censored and length-biased right-censored failure time data: properties and applications.

Many cohort studies in survival analysis have imbedded in them subcohorts consisting of incident cases and prevalent cases. Instead of analysing the data from the incident and prevalent cohorts alone, there are surely advantages to combining the data from these two subcohorts. In this paper, we discuss a survival function nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (NPMLE) using both length-biased right-censored prevalent cohort data and right-censored incident cohort data. We establish the asymptotic properties of the survival function NPMLE and utilize the NPMLE to estimate the distribution for time spent in a Montreal area hospital.

Structure and tethering mechanism of dynein-2 intermediate chains in intraflagellar transport.

Dynein-2 is a large multiprotein complex that powers retrograde intraflagellar transport (IFT) of cargoes within cilia/flagella, but the molecular mechanism underlying this function is still emerging. Distinctively, dynein-2 contains two identical force-generating heavy chains that interact with two different intermediate chains (WDR34 and WDR60). Here, we dissect regulation of dynein-2 function by WDR34 and WDR60 using an integrative approach including cryo-electron microscopy and CRISPR/Cas9-enabled cell biology. A 3.9 Å resolution structure shows how WDR34 and WDR60 use surprisingly different interactions to engage equivalent sites of the two heavy chains. We show that cilia can assemble in the absence of either WDR34 or WDR60 individually, but not both subunits. Dynein-2-dependent distribution of cargoes depends more strongly on WDR60, because the unique N-terminal extension of WDR60 facilitates dynein-2 targeting to cilia. Strikingly, this N-terminal extension can be transplanted onto WDR34 and retain function, suggesting it acts as a flexible tether to the IFT "trains" that assemble at the ciliary base. We discuss how use of unstructured tethers represents an emerging theme in IFT train interactions.

Neisseria gonorrhoeae lipooligosaccharide glycan epitopes recognized by bactericidal IgG antibodies elicited by the meningococcal group B-directed vaccine, MenB-4C.

Introduction: Outer membrane vesicles (OMVs) of Neisseria meningitidis in the group B-directed vaccine MenB-4C (BexseroR) protect against infections with Neisseria gonorrhoeae. The immunological basis for protection remains unclear. N. meningitidis OMV vaccines generate human antibodies to N. meningitidis and N. gonorrhoeae lipooligosaccharide (LOS/endotoxin), but the structural specificity of these LOS antibodies is not defined. Methods: Ten paired human sera obtained pre- and post-MenB-4C immunization were used in Western blots to probe N. meningitidis and N. gonorrhoeae LOS. Post-MenB-4C sera (7v5, 19v5, and 17v5), representing individual human variability in LOS recognition, were then used to interrogate structurally defined LOSs of N. meningitidis and N. gonorrhoeae strains and mutants and studied in bactericidal assays. Results and discussion: Post-MenB-4C sera recognized both N. meningitidis and N. gonorrhoeae LOS species, ~10% of total IgG to gonococcal OMV antigens. N. meningitidis and N. gonorrhoeae LOSs were broadly recognized by post-IgG antibodies, but with individual variability for LOS structures. Deep truncation of LOS, specifically a rfaK mutant without α-, ß-, or γ-chain glycosylation, eliminated LOS recognition by all post-vaccine sera. Serum 7v5 IgG antibodies recognized the unsialyated L1 α-chain, and a 3-PEA-HepII or 6-PEA-HepII was part of the conformational epitope. Replacing the 3-PEA on HepII with a 3-Glc blocked 7v5 IgG antibody recognition of N. meningitidis and N. gonorrhoeae LOSs. Serum 19v5 recognized lactoneotetrose (LNT) or L1 LOS-expressing N. meningitidis or N. gonorrhoeae with a minimal α-chain structure of Gal-Glc-HepI (L8), a 3-PEA-HepII or 6-PEA-HepII was again part of the conformational epitope and a 3-Glc-HepII blocked 19v5 antibody binding. Serum 17v5 LOS antibodies recognized LNT or L1 α-chains with a minimal HepI structure of three sugars and no requirement for HepII modifications. These LOS antibodies contributed to the serum bactericidal activity against N. gonorrhoeae. The MenB-4C vaccination elicits bactericidal IgG antibodies to N. gonorrhoeae conformational epitopes involving HepI and HepII glycosylated LOS structures shared between N. meningitidis and N. gonorrhoeae. LOS structures should be considered in next-generation gonococcal vaccine design.

Roles for CEP170 in cilia function and dynein-2 assembly.

Primary cilia are essential eukaryotic organelles required for signalling and secretion. Dynein-2 is a microtubule-motor protein complex and is required for ciliogenesis via its role in facilitating retrograde intraflagellar transport (IFT) from the cilia tip to the cell body. Dynein-2 must be assembled and loaded onto IFT trains for entry into cilia for this process to occur, but how dynein-2 is assembled and how it is recycled back into a cilium remain poorly understood. Here, we identify centrosomal protein of 170 kDa (CEP170) as a dynein-2-interacting protein in mammalian cells. We show that loss of CEP170 perturbs intraflagellar transport and hedgehog signalling, and alters the stability of dynein-2 holoenzyme complex. Together, our data indicate a role for CEP170 in supporting cilia function and dynein-2 assembly.

Responsive neurostimulation as a treatment for super-refractory focal status epilepticus: a systematic review and case series.

OBJECTIVE: Super-refractory status epilepticus (SRSE) has high rates of morbidity and mortality. Few published studies have investigated neurostimulation treatment options in the setting of SRSE. This systematic literature review and series of 10 cases investigated the safety and efficacy of implanting and activating the responsive neurostimulation (RNS) system acutely during SRSE and discusses the rationale for lead placement and selection of stimulation parameters. METHODS: Through a literature search (of databases and American Epilepsy Society abstracts that were last searched on March 1, 2023) and direct contact with the manufacturer of the RNS system, 10 total cases were identified that utilized RNS acutely during SE (9 SRSE cases and 1 case of refractory SE [RSE]). Nine centers obtained IRB approval for retrospective chart review and completed data collection forms. A tenth case had published data from a case report that were referenced in this study. Data from the collection forms and the published case report were compiled in Excel. RESULTS: All 10 cases presented with focal SE: 9 with SRSE and 1 with RSE. Etiology varied from known lesion (focal cortical dysplasia in 7 cases and recurrent meningioma in 1) to unknown (2 cases, with 1 presenting with new-onset refractory focal SE [NORSE]). Seven of 10 cases exited SRSE after RNS placement and activation, with a time frame ranging from 1 to 27 days. Two patients died of complications due to ongoing SRSE. Another patient's SE never resolved but was subclinical. One of 10 cases had a device-related significant adverse event (trace hemorrhage), which did not require intervention. There was 1 reported recurrence of SE after discharge among the cases in which SRSE resolved up to the defined endpoint. CONCLUSIONS: This case series offers preliminary evidence that RNS is a safe and potentially effective treatment option for SRSE in patients with 1-2 well-defined seizure-onset zone(s) who meet the eligibility criteria for RNS. The unique features of RNS offer multiple benefits in the SRSE setting, including real-time electrocorticography to supplement scalp EEG for monitoring SRSE progress and response to treatment, as well as numerous stimulation options. Further research is indicated to investigate the optimal stimulation settings in this unique clinical scenario.

Insights From Chronic ECoG by RNS.

SUMMARY: The NeuroPace responsive neurostimulation system (RNS) has revolutionized the care of patients suffering from focal epilepsy since its approval in 2014. One major advantage of this device is its innate ability to gather long-term electrocorticographic (ECoG) data that the device uses in its novel closed-loop treatment paradigm. Beyond the standard stimulation treatments, which have been demonstrated to be safe and well-tolerated, the data collected by the RNS provide valuable information, such as the long-term circadian and ultradian variations that affect seizure risk, obtained under naturalistic conditions. Additionally, these data inform future surgical procedures, supplementing clinically reported seizures by patients, assessing the response to newly added anti-seizure medications, helping to forecast the risk of future seizures, and understanding the mechanisms of certain long-term outcomes in patients with postsurgical epilepsy. By leveraging these data, the delivery of high-quality clinical care for patients with epilepsy can only be enhanced. Finally, these data open significant avenues of research, including machine learning and artificial intelligence algorithms, which may also translate to improved outcomes in patients who struggle with recurrent seizures.

Asymmetric coding of reward prediction errors in human insula and dorsomedial prefrontal cortex.

The signed value and unsigned salience of reward prediction errors (RPEs) are critical to understanding reinforcement learning (RL) and cognitive control. Dorsomedial prefrontal cortex (dMPFC) and insula (INS) are key regions for integrating reward and surprise information, but conflicting evidence for both signed and unsigned activity has led to multiple proposals for the nature of RPE representations in these brain areas. Recently developed RL models allow neurons to respond differently to positive and negative RPEs. Here, we use intracranially recorded high frequency activity (HFA) to test whether this flexible asymmetric coding strategy captures RPE coding diversity in human INS and dMPFC. At the region level, we found a bias towards positive RPEs in both areas which paralleled behavioral adaptation. At the local level, we found spatially interleaved neural populations responding to unsigned RPE salience and valence-specific positive and negative RPEs. Furthermore, directional connectivity estimates revealed a leading role of INS in communicating positive and unsigned RPEs to dMPFC. These findings support asymmetric coding across distinct but intermingled neural populations as a core principle of RPE processing and inform theories of the role of dMPFC and INS in RL and cognitive control.

Continuing genomic evolution of the Neisseria meningitidis cc11.2 urethritis clade, NmUC: a narrative review.

Neisseria meningitidis (Nm) is a bacterial pathogen responsible for invasive meningococcal disease. Though typically colonizing the nasopharynx, multiple outbreaks of meningococcal urethritis were first reported in 2015-2016; outbreaks originally presumed to be caused by Neisseria gonorrhoeae (Ng). Genomic analysis revealed that the Nm isolates causing these outbreaks were a distinct clade, and had integrated gonococcal DNA at multiple genomic sites, including the gonococcal denitrification apparatus aniA-norB, a partial gonococcal operon of five genes containing ispD, and the acetylglutamate kinase gene argB with the adjacent gonococcal locus NGO0843. The urethritis isolates had also deleted the group C capsule biosynthesis genes cssA/B/C and csc, resulting in loss of capsule. Collectively, these isolates form the N. meningitidis urethritis clade (NmUC). Genomic analysis of recent (2016-2022) NmUC isolates revealed that the genomic features have been maintained in the clade, implying that they are important for NmUC's status as a urogenital pathogen. Furthermore, the analysis revealed the emergence of a sub-clade, designated NmUC-B, phylogenetically separated from the earlier NmUC-A. This sub-clade has integrated additional gonococcal alleles into the genome, including alleles associated with antimicrobial resistance. NmUC continues to adapt to a urethral niche and evolve as a urogenital pathogen.

Comparison of bivalent and monovalent SARS-CoV-2 variant vaccines: the phase 2 randomized open-label COVAIL trial.

Vaccine protection against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection wanes over time, requiring updated boosters. In a phase 2, open-label, randomized clinical trial with sequentially enrolled stages at 22 US sites, we assessed safety and immunogenicity of a second boost with monovalent or bivalent variant vaccines from mRNA and protein-based platforms targeting wild-type, Beta, Delta and Omicron BA.1 spike antigens. The primary outcome was pseudovirus neutralization titers at 50% inhibitory dilution (ID50 titers) with 95% confidence intervals against different SARS-CoV-2 strains. The secondary outcome assessed safety by solicited local and systemic adverse events (AEs), unsolicited AEs, serious AEs and AEs of special interest. Boosting with prototype/wild-type vaccines produced numerically lower ID50 titers than any variant-containing vaccine against all variants. Conversely, boosting with a variant vaccine excluding prototype was not associated with decreased neutralization against D614G. Omicron BA.1 or Beta monovalent vaccines were nearly equivalent to Omicron BA.1 + prototype or Beta + prototype bivalent vaccines for neutralization of Beta, Omicron BA.1 and Omicron BA.4/5, although they were lower for contemporaneous Omicron subvariants. Safety was similar across arms and stages and comparable to previous reports. Our study shows that updated vaccines targeting Beta or Omicron BA.1 provide broadly crossprotective neutralizing antibody responses against diverse SARS-CoV-2 variants without sacrificing immunity to the ancestral strain. ClinicalTrials.gov registration: NCT05289037 .

The evolution of SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in Canada: a time-series study, 2020-2023.

BACKGROUND: During the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, the proportion of reported cases of COVID-19 among Canadians was under 6%. Although high vaccine coverage was achieved in Canada by fall 2021, the Omicron variant caused unprecedented numbers of infections, overwhelming testing capacity and making it difficult to quantify the trajectory of population immunity. METHODS: Using a time-series approach and data from more than 900 000 samples collected by 7 research studies collaborating with the COVID-19 Immunity Task Force (CITF), we estimated trends in SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence owing to infection and vaccination for the Canadian population over 3 intervals: prevaccination (March to November 2020), vaccine roll-out (December 2020 to November 2021), and the arrival of the Omicron variant (December 2021 to March 2023). We also estimated seroprevalence by geographical region and age. RESULTS: By November 2021, 9.0% (95% credible interval [CrI] 7.3%-11%) of people in Canada had humoral immunity to SARS-CoV-2 from an infection. Seroprevalence increased rapidly after the arrival of the Omicron variant - by Mar. 15, 2023, 76% (95% CrI 74%-79%) of the population had detectable antibodies from infections. The rapid rise in infection-induced antibodies occurred across Canada and was most pronounced in younger age groups and in the Western provinces: Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta and British Columbia. INTERPRETATION: Data up to March 2023 indicate that most people in Canada had acquired antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 through natural infection and vaccination. However, given variations in population seropositivity by age and geography, the potential for waning antibody levels, and new variants that may escape immunity, public health policy and clinical decisions should be tailored to local patterns of population immunity.

α4-Containing GABAA Receptors on DRD2 Neurons of the Nucleus Accumbens Mediate Instrumental Responding for Conditioned Reinforcers and Its Potentiation by Cocaine.

Extrasynaptic GABAA receptors (GABAARs) composed of α4, ß, and δ subunits mediate GABAergic tonic inhibition and are potential molecular targets in the modulation of behavioral responses to natural and drug rewards. These GABAARs are highly expressed within the nucleus accumbens (NAc), where they influence the excitability of the medium spiny neurons. Here, we explore their role in modulating behavioral responses to food-conditioned cues and the behavior-potentiating effects of cocaine. α4-Subunit constitutive knock-out mice (α4-/-) showed higher rates of instrumental responding for reward-paired stimuli in a test of conditioned reinforcement (CRf). A similar effect was seen following viral knockdown of GABAAR α4 subunits within the NAc. Local infusion of the α4ßδ-GABAAR-preferring agonist THIP (4,5,6,7-tetrahydroisoxazolo[5,4-c]pyridin-3-ol; Gaboxadol) into the NAc had no effect on responding when given alone but reduced cocaine potentiation of responding for conditioned reinforcers in wild-type, but not α4-/- mice. Finally, specific deletion of α4-subunits from dopamine D2, but not D1, receptor-expressing neurons (DRD2 and DRD1 neurons), mimicked the phenotype of the constitutive knockout, potentiating CRf responding, and blocking intra-accumbal THIP attenuation of cocaine-potentiated CRf responding. These data demonstrate that α4-GABAAR-mediated inhibition of DRD2 neurons reduces instrumental responding for a conditioned reinforcer and its potentiation by cocaine and emphasize the importance of GABAergic signaling within the NAc in mediating the effects of cocaine.

Immunogenicity of NVX-CoV2373 heterologous boost against SARS-CoV-2 variants.

As part of a multicenter study evaluating homologous and heterologous COVID-19 booster vaccines, we assessed the magnitude, breadth, and short-term durability of binding and pseudovirus-neutralizing antibody (PsVNA) responses following a single booster dose of NVX-CoV2373 in adults primed with either Ad26.COV2.S, mRNA-1273, or BNT162b2 vaccines. NVX-CoV2373 as a heterologous booster was immunogenic and associated with no safety concerns through Day 91. Fold-rises in PsVNA titers from baseline (Day 1) to Day 29 were highest for prototypic D614G variant and lowest for more recent Omicron sub-lineages BQ.1.1 and XBB.1. Peak humoral responses against all SARS-CoV-2 variants were lower in those primed with Ad26.COV2.S than with mRNA vaccines. Prior SARS CoV-2 infection was associated with substantially higher baseline PsVNA titers, which remained elevated relative to previously uninfected participants through Day 91. These data support the use of heterologous protein-based booster vaccines as an acceptable alternative to mRNA or adenoviral-based COVID-19 booster vaccines. This trial was conducted under ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT04889209.

A time-dependent Poisson-Gamma model for recruitment forecasting in multicenter studies.

Forecasting recruitments is a key component of the monitoring phase of multicenter studies. One of the most popular techniques in this field is the Poisson-Gamma recruitment model, a Bayesian technique built on a doubly stochastic Poisson process. This approach is based on the modeling of enrollments as a Poisson process where the recruitment rates are assumed to be constant over time and to follow a common Gamma prior distribution. However, the constant-rate assumption is a restrictive limitation that is rarely appropriate for applications in real studies. In this paper, we illustrate a flexible generalization of this methodology which allows the enrollment rates to vary over time by modeling them through B-splines. We show the suitability of this approach for a wide range of recruitment behaviors in a simulation study and by estimating the recruitment progression of the Canadian Co-infection Cohort.

TAPT1-at the crossroads of extracellular matrix and signaling in Osteogenesis imperfecta.

Osteogenesis imperfecta (OI) is a hereditary skeletal disorder primarily affecting collagen type I structure and function, causing bone fragility and occasionally versatile extraskeletal symptoms. This study expands the spectrum of OI-causing TAPT1 mutations and links extracellular matrix changes to signaling regulation.