Continental-scale dynamics of avian influenza in U.S. waterfowl are driven by demography, migration, and temperature.

Emerging diseases of wildlife origin are increasingly spilling over into humans and domestic animals. Surveillance and risk assessments for transmission between these populations are informed by a mechanistic understanding of the pathogens in wildlife reservoirs. For avian influenza viruses (AIV), much observational and experimental work in wildlife has been conducted at local scales, yet fully understanding their spread and distribution requires assessing the mechanisms acting at both local, (e.g., intrinsic epidemic dynamics), and continental scales, (e.g., long-distance migration). Here, we combined a large, continental-scale data set on low pathogenic, Type A AIV in the United States with a novel network-based application of bird banding/recovery data to investigate the migration-based drivers of AIV and their relative importance compared to well-characterized local drivers (e.g., demography, environmental persistence). We compared among regression models reflecting hypothesized ecological processes and evaluated their ability to predict AIV in space and time using within and out-of-sample validation. We found that predictors of AIV were associated with multiple mechanisms at local and continental scales. Hypotheses characterizing local epidemic dynamics were strongly supported, with age, the age-specific aggregation of migratory birds in an area and temperature being the best predictors of infection. Hypotheses defining larger, network-based features of the migration processes, such as clustering or between-cluster mixing explained less variation but were also supported. Therefore, our results support a role for local processes in driving the continental distribution of AIV.

Demographic and Spatiotemporal Patterns of Avian Influenza Infection at the Continental Scale, and in Relation to Annual Life Cycle of a Migratory Host.

Since the spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 in the eastern hemisphere, numerous surveillance programs and studies have been undertaken to detect the occurrence, distribution, or spread of avian influenza viruses (AIV) in wild bird populations worldwide. To identify demographic determinants and spatiotemporal patterns of AIV infection in long distance migratory waterfowl in North America, we fitted generalized linear models with binominal distribution to analyze results from 13,574 blue-winged teal (Anas discors, BWTE) sampled in 2007 to 2010 year round during AIV surveillance programs in Canada and the United States. Our analyses revealed that during late summer staging (July-August) and fall migration (September-October), hatch year (HY) birds were more likely to be infected than after hatch year (AHY) birds, however there was no difference between age categories for the remainder of the year (winter, spring migration, and breeding period), likely due to maturing immune systems and newly acquired immunity of HY birds. Probability of infection increased non-linearly with latitude, and was highest in late summer prior to fall migration when densities of birds and the proportion of susceptible HY birds in the population are highest. Birds in the Central and Mississippi flyways were more likely to be infected compared to those in the Atlantic flyway. Seasonal cycles and spatial variation of AIV infection were largely driven by the dynamics of AIV infection in HY birds, which had more prominent cycles and spatial variation in infection compared to AHY birds. Our results demonstrate demographic as well as seasonal, latitudinal and flyway trends across Canada and the US, while illustrating the importance of migratory host life cycle and age in driving cyclical patterns of prevalence.

Large-scale avian influenza surveillance in wild birds throughout the United States.

Avian influenza is a viral disease that primarily infects wild and domestic birds, but it also can be transmitted to a variety of mammals. In 2006, the United States of America Departments of Agriculture and Interior designed a large-scale, interagency surveillance effort that sought to determine if highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses were present in wild bird populations within the United States of America. This program, combined with the Canadian and Mexican surveillance programs, represented the largest, coordinated wildlife disease surveillance program ever implemented. Here we analyze data from 197,885 samples that were collected from over 200 wild bird species. While the initial motivation for surveillance focused on highly pathogenic avian influenza, the scale of the data provided unprecedented information on the ecology of avian influenza viruses in the United States, avian influenza virus host associations, and avian influenza prevalence in wild birds over time. Ultimately, significant advances in our knowledge of avian influenza will depend on both large-scale surveillance efforts and on focused research studies.

Avian influenza virus prevalence in migratory waterfowl in the United States, 2007-2009.

We analyzed 155,535 samples collected for surveillance of avian influenza viruses (AIVs), in the United States from 2007 to 2009, from migratory waterfowl (ducks, geese, and swans). The goal was to elucidate patterns of prevalence by flyway and functional groups to determine targets for future surveillance. Apparent prevalence of AIV was highest in the Pacific Flyway in 2007-2008 (14.2% and 14.1%, respectively), in the Mississippi Flyway in 2009 (16.8%), and lowest each year in the Atlantic Flyway (range, 7.3%-8.9%). Dabbling ducks had higher apparent prevalence of AIV (12.8%-18.8%) than diving ducks (3.9%-6.0%) or geese and swans (3.6%-3.9%). We observed highest apparent prevalence in hatch-year waterfowl (15.6%-18.9%). We further analyzed 117,738 of the 155,535 samples to test the hypothesis mallard (Anasplatyrhynchos) had highest prevalence of AIV. We compared apparent prevalence and odds ratios for seven species of ducks and one species of goose commonly collected across the United States. Mallards had highest apparent prevalence (15%-26%) in half of comparisons made, whereas American green- winged teal (Anas creeca, 12%-13%), blue-winged teal (Anas discors, 13%-23%), northern pintail (Anas acuta, 16%-22%), or northern shoveler (Anas clypeata, 15%) had higher apparent prevalence in the remaining comparisons. The results of our research can be used to tailor future surveillance that targets flyways, functional groups, and species with the highest probability of detecting AIV.

Environmental and demographic determinants of avian influenza viruses in waterfowl across the contiguous United States.

Outbreaks of avian influenza in North American poultry have been linked to wild waterfowl. A first step towards understanding where and when avian influenza viruses might emerge from North American waterfowl is to identify environmental and demographic determinants of infection in their populations. Laboratory studies indicate water temperature as one determinant of environmental viral persistence and we explored this hypothesis at the landscape scale. We also hypothesized that the interval apparent prevalence in ducks within a local watershed during the overwintering season would influence infection probabilities during the following breeding season within the same local watershed. Using avian influenza virus surveillance data collected from 19,965 wild waterfowl across the contiguous United States between October 2006 and September 2009 We fit Logistic regression models relating the infection status of individual birds sampled on their breeding grounds to demographic characteristics, temperature, and interval apparent prevalence during the preceding overwintering season at the local watershed scale. We found strong support for sex, age, and species differences in the probability an individual duck tested positive for avian influenza virus. In addition, we found that for every seven days the local minimum temperature fell below zero, the chance an individual would test positive for avian influenza virus increased by 5.9 percent. We also found a twelve percent increase in the chance an individual would test positive during the breeding season for every ten percent increase in the interval apparent prevalence during the prior overwintering season. These results suggest that viral deposition in water and sub-freezing temperatures during the overwintering season may act as determinants of individual level infection risk during the subsequent breeding season. Our findings have implications for future surveillance activities in waterfowl and domestic poultry populations. Further study is needed to identify how these drivers might interact with other host-specific infection determinants, such as species phylogeny, immunological status, and behavioral characteristics.

Absence of Mycobacterium bovis in feral swine (Sus scrofa) from the southern Texas border region.

Free-ranging wildlife, such as feral swine (Sus scrofa), harbor a variety of diseases that are transmissible to livestock and could negatively impact agricultural production. Information is needed regarding the exposure and infection rates of Mycobacterium bovis and many other diseases and parasites in feral swine occurring in the Texas border region. Our main objective was to determine exposure rates and possible infection rates of M. bovis in feral swine by opportunistically sampling animals from the Texas border region. From June to September 2010, we obtained samples from 396 feral swine and tested 98 samples for M. bovis by histopathology and mycobacteriologic culture. We found no evidence of M. bovis infection. We believe that it is important to periodically and strategically sample feral swine for M. bovis in high-risk areas of the United States because they are capable of becoming reservoirs of the disease.

Low pathogenicity avian influenza subtypes isolated from wild birds in the United States, 2006-2008.

Due to concerns that high pathogenicity avian influenza would enter into the United States, an interagency strategic plan was developed to conduct surveillance in wild birds in order to address one of the possible pathways of entry. The USDA and state wildlife agencies participated in this effort by collecting samples from 145,055 wild birds from April 2006 through March 2008 in all 50 states. The majority (59%) of all wild bird samples was collected from dabbling ducks, and 91% of H5 detections using real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) were in dabbling ducks. Apparent prevalence of H5 by rRT-PCR in all birds sampled was 0.38%. Most (48%) H5 detections were found in mallards (Anas platyrhynchos). Thirty-three virus subtypes were identified; H5N2 was the most prevalent subtype and accounted for 40% of all virus isolations. We present the virus subtypes obtained from the national surveillance effort and compare them with research results published from various countries.

Evolutionary changes affecting rapid identification of 2008 Newcastle disease viruses isolated from double-crested cormorants.

A morbidity-mortality event involving virulent Newcastle disease virus (NDV) in wild double-crested cormorants (Phalacrocorax auritus) occurred in North America in the summer of 2008. All 22 viruses isolated from cormorants were positively identified by the USDA-validated real-time reverse transcription-PCR assay targeting the matrix gene. However, the USDA-validated reverse transcription-PCR assay targeting the fusion gene that is specific for virulent isolates identified only 1 of these 22 isolates. Additionally, several of these isolates have been sequenced, and this information was used to identify genomic changes that caused the failure of the test and to revisit the evolution of NDV in cormorants. The forward primer and fusion probe were redesigned from the 2008 cormorant isolate sequence, and the revised fusion gene test successfully identified all 22 isolates. Phylogenetic analyses using both the full fusion sequence and the partial 374-nucleotide sequence identified these isolates as genotype V, with their nearest ancestor being an earlier isolate collected from Nevada in 2005. Histopathological analysis of this ancestral strain revealed morphological changes in the brain consistent with that of the traditional mesogenic pathotypes in cormorants. Intracerebral pathogenicity assays indicated that each of these isolates is virulent with values of >0.7 but not more virulent than earlier isolates reported from Canada.

Surveillance for high pathogenicity avian influenza virus in wild birds in the Pacific Flyway of the United States, 2006-2007.

In 2006 the U.S. Department of Agriculture, U.S. Department of Interior, and cooperating state fish and wildlife agencies began surveillance for high-pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus in wild birds in the Pacific Flyway of the United States. This surveillance effort was highly integrated in California, Oregon, Washington, Idaho, Nevada, Arizona, Utah, and western Montana, with collection of samples coordinated with state agencies. Sampling focused on live wild birds, hunter-killed waterfowl during state hunting seasons, and wild bird mortality events. Of 20,888 samples collected, 18,139 were from order Anseriformes (waterfowl) and 2010 were from order Charadriiformes (shorebirds), representing the two groups of birds regarded to be the primary reservoirs of avian influenza viruses. Although 83 birds were positive by H5 real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR), no HPAI H5N1 virus was found. Thirty-two virus isolates were obtained from the H5-positive samples, including low-pathogenicity H5 viruses identified as H5N2, H5N3, and H5N9.

Surveillance for highly pathogenic avian influenza in wild birds in the USA.

As part of the USA's National Strategy for Pandemic Influenza, an Interagency Strategic Plan for the Early Detection of Highly Pathogenic H5N1 Avian Influenza in Wild Migratory Birds was developed and implemented. From 1 April 2006 through 31 March 2009, 261,946 samples from wild birds and 101,457 wild bird fecal samples were collected in the USA; no highly pathogenic avian influenza was detected. The United States Department of Agriculture, and state and tribal cooperators accounted for 213,115 (81%) of the wild bird samples collected; 31, 27, 21 and 21% of the samples were collected from the Atlantic, Pacific, Central and Mississippi flyways, respectively. More than 250 species of wild birds in all 50 states were sampled. The majority of wild birds (86%) were dabbling ducks, geese, swans and shorebirds. The apparent prevalence of low pathogenic avian influenza viruses during biological years 2007 and 2008 was 9.7 and 11.0%, respectively. The apparent prevalence of H5 and H7 subtypes across all species sampled were 0.5 and 0.06%, respectively. The pooled fecal samples (n= 101,539) positive for low pathogenic avian influenza were 4.0, 6.7 and 4.7% for biological years 2006, 2007 and 2008, respectively. The highly pathogenic early detection system for wild birds developed and implemented in the USA represents the largest coordinated wildlife disease surveillance system ever conducted. This effort provided evidence that wild birds in the USA were free of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (given the expected minimum prevalence of 0.001%) at the 99.9% confidence level during the surveillance period.