Factors affecting the estimated probabilistic acute dietary exposure to captan from apple consumption.

The effect of the number of pesticide residue values below the LOQ/LOD of analytical methods, the variability of residues in individual fruits, mass of fruit units and the number of bootstrap iterations was studied on the probabilistically estimated acute exposure of consumers. The 4720 daily apple consumption data and the results of 1239 apple sample analyses for captan residues, performed within the Hungarian monitoring programme between 2005 and 2011, were used in this study as model matrix. Up to about 95th percentile exposure (µg/(kg bw·day)), simply multiplying each residue in composite samples with each consumption value gave similar estimates to those obtained with the complex procedure taking also into account the mass of and residues in individual fruits. However, the exposure above the 95th percentile calculated with the complex procedure gradually increased with increasing percentile level compared to the simple procedure. Including the high number of non-detects reduced the estimated exposure, which was the highest when only the residues measured in treated fruits were taken into account. The number of bootstrap iterations between 100 and 10,000 did not significantly affect the calculated exposure. The 99.99th percentile exposure amounted to 17.9% of the acute reference dose of 300 µg/(kg bw·day) for women of childbearing age.

Exposure of consumers to morphine from poppy seeds in Hungary.

Poppy seed-containing foods are popular dishes in Hungary and some other Central European countries. The alkaloids of poppy are used in the production of medicines. Poppy seeds used as food may also contain considerable amounts of alkaloids, which raises the question of food safety. Morphine, codeine, thebaine and noscapine concentrations of poppy seed samples from the period 2001-2010 and consumption data from two Hungarian surveys, carried out in 2003 and 2009, were evaluated. Exposure calculations were made for morphine intake by both point estimate and probabilistic methods, and the uncertainty of the calculated values was estimated. The point estimate for the acute consumer exposure, calculated using the 97.5th percentiles of morphine concentration and of poppy seed consumption and taking into account the reduction of morphine content by processing, was 78.64 µg (kg bw)⁻¹ day⁻¹ for adults, and 116.90 µg (kg bw)⁻¹ day⁻¹ for children. Based on probabilistic estimations, the 97.5th and 99th percentile exposures ranged between 18.3-25.4 and 25.6-47.4 µg (kg bw)⁻¹ day⁻¹ for adults, and between 32.9 and 66.4 µg (kg bw)⁻¹ day⁻¹ for children, respectively. As a no observed effect level (NOEL) had not been established, the significance of exposure could not be assessed.

Exposure of consumers to deoxynivalenol from consumption of white bread in Hungary.

In view of the frequent occurrence of mycotoxins in cereals, a study was initiated to assess the exposure of the Hungarian adult population. Consumption data for 1360 individuals, based on a 3-day questionnaire, indicated that white bread accounted for the major intake of cereal-based products. Various cereal products were analysed for 16 mycotoxins by a LC/MS/MS multi-toxin method with LOD of 16 µg kg⁻¹ and LOQ of 50 µg kg⁻¹. Deoxynivalenol (DON) was most frequently detected, but no acetyl-deoxynivalenol was present in detectable concentrations. Consumer exposure was calculated with standard Monte Carlo probabilistic modelling and point estimates, taking into account bread consumption and DON contamination in independently taken wheat flour and wheat grain samples. Over 55% of cases the DON intake were below 15% of the provisional maximum tolerable daily intake (PMTDI) of 1 µg/(kg bw)/day. However, in 5-15% of cases, the intake from bread consumption alone exceeded the PMTDI. Wheat grain data led to the higher percentage. Intakes estimated from both data sets were at or below the acute reference dose (ARfD) of 8 µg/(kg bw)/day in 99.94-99.97% of cases.