Estimating Counterfactual Treatment Outcomes Over Time in Complex Multiagent Scenarios.

Evaluation of intervention in a multiagent system, for example, when humans should intervene in autonomous driving systems and when a player should pass to teammates for a good shot, is challenging in various engineering and scientific fields. Estimating the individual treatment effect (ITE) using counterfactual long-term prediction is practical to evaluate such interventions. However, most of the conventional frameworks did not consider the time-varying complex structure of multiagent relationships and covariate counterfactual prediction. This may lead to erroneous assessments of ITE and difficulty in interpretation. Here, we propose an interpretable, counterfactual recurrent network in multiagent systems to estimate the effect of the intervention. Our model leverages graph variational recurrent neural networks (GVRNNs) and theory-based computation with domain knowledge for the ITE estimation framework based on long-term prediction of multiagent covariates and outcomes, which can confirm the circumstances under which the intervention is effective. On simulated models of an automated vehicle and biological agents with time-varying confounders, we show that our methods achieved lower estimation errors in counterfactual covariates and the most effective treatment timing than the baselines. Furthermore, using real basketball data, our methods performed realistic counterfactual predictions and evaluated the counterfactual passes in shot scenarios.

Decentralized policy learning with partial observation and mechanical constraints for multiperson modeling.

Extracting the rules of real-world multi-agent behaviors is a current challenge in various scientific and engineering fields. Biological agents independently have limited observation and mechanical constraints; however, most of the conventional data-driven models ignore such assumptions, resulting in lack of biological plausibility and model interpretability for behavioral analyses. Here we propose sequential generative models with partial observation and mechanical constraints in a decentralized manner, which can model agents' cognition and body dynamics, and predict biologically plausible behaviors. We formulate this as a decentralized multi-agent imitation-learning problem, leveraging binary partial observation and decentralized policy models based on hierarchical variational recurrent neural networks with physical and biomechanical penalties. Using real-world basketball and soccer datasets, we show the effectiveness of our method in terms of the constraint violations, long-term trajectory prediction, and partial observation. Our approach can be used as a multi-agent simulator to generate realistic trajectories using real-world data.

Physically-interpretable classification of biological network dynamics for complex collective motions.

Understanding biological network dynamics is a fundamental issue in various scientific and engineering fields. Network theory is capable of revealing the relationship between elements and their propagation; however, for complex collective motions, the network properties often transiently and complexly change. A fundamental question addressed here pertains to the classification of collective motion network based on physically-interpretable dynamical properties. Here we apply a data-driven spectral analysis called graph dynamic mode decomposition, which obtains the dynamical properties for collective motion classification. Using a ballgame as an example, we classified the strategic collective motions in different global behaviours and discovered that, in addition to the physical properties, the contextual node information was critical for classification. Furthermore, we discovered the label-specific stronger spectra in the relationship among the nearest agents, providing physical and semantic interpretations. Our approach contributes to the understanding of principles of biological complex network dynamics from the perspective of nonlinear dynamical systems.

Data-driven spectral analysis for coordinative structures in periodic human locomotion.

Living organisms dynamically and flexibly operate a great number of components. As one of such redundant control mechanisms, low-dimensional coordinative structures among multiple components have been investigated. However, structures extracted from the conventional statistical dimensionality reduction methods do not reflect dynamical properties in principle. Here we regard coordinative structures in biological periodic systems with unknown and redundant dynamics as a nonlinear limit-cycle oscillation, and apply a data-driven operator-theoretic spectral analysis, which obtains dynamical properties of coordinative structures such as frequency and phase from the estimated eigenvalues and eigenfunctions of a composition operator. Using segmental angle series during human walking as an example, we first extracted the coordinative structures based on dynamics; e.g. the speed-independent coordinative structures in the harmonics of gait frequency. Second, we discovered the speed-dependent time-evolving behaviours of the phase by estimating the eigenfunctions via our approach on the conventional low-dimensional structures. We also verified our approach using the double pendulum and walking model simulation data. Our results of locomotion analysis suggest that our approach can be useful to analyse biological periodic phenomena from the perspective of nonlinear dynamical systems.

Subspace dynamic mode decomposition for stochastic Koopman analysis.

The analysis of nonlinear dynamical systems based on the Koopman operator is attracting attention in various applications. Dynamic mode decomposition (DMD) is a data-driven algorithm for Koopman spectral analysis, and several variants with a wide range of applications have been proposed. However, popular implementations of DMD suffer from observation noise on random dynamical systems and generate inaccurate estimation of the spectra of the stochastic Koopman operator. In this paper, we propose subspace DMD as an algorithm for the Koopman analysis of random dynamical systems with observation noise. Subspace DMD first computes the orthogonal projection of future snapshots to the space of past snapshots and then estimates the spectra of a linear model, and its output converges to the spectra of the stochastic Koopman operator under standard assumptions. We investigate the empirical performance of subspace DMD with several dynamical systems and show its utility for the Koopman analysis of random dynamical systems.