Health trends, inequalities and opportunities in South Africa's provinces, 1990-2019: findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 Study.

BACKGROUND: Over the last 30 years, South Africa has experienced four 'colliding epidemics' of HIV and tuberculosis, chronic illness and mental health, injury and violence, and maternal, neonatal, and child mortality, which have had substantial effects on health and well-being. Using data from the 2019 Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study (GBD 2019), we evaluated national and provincial health trends and progress towards important Sustainable Development Goal targets from 1990 to 2019. METHODS: We analysed GBD 2019 estimates of mortality, non-fatal health loss, summary health measures and risk factor burden, comparing trends over 1990-2007 and 2007-2019. Additionally, we decomposed changes in life expectancy by cause of death and assessed healthcare system performance. RESULTS: Across the nine provinces, inequalities in mortality and life expectancy increased over 1990-2007, largely due to differences in HIV/AIDS, then decreased over 2007-2019. Demographic change and increases in non-communicable diseases nearly doubled the number of years lived with disability between 1990 and 2019. From 1990 to 2019, risk factor burdens generally shifted from communicable and nutritional disease risks to non-communicable disease and injury risks; unsafe sex remained the top risk factor. Despite widespread improvements in healthcare system performance, the greatest gains were generally in economically advantaged provinces. CONCLUSIONS: Reductions in HIV/AIDS and related conditions have led to improved health since 2007, though most provinces still lag in key areas. To achieve health targets, provincial governments should enhance health investments and exchange of knowledge, resources and best practices alongside populations that have been left behind, especially following the COVID-19 pandemic.

Home-Based Intervention to Test and Start (HITS): a community-randomized controlled trial to increase HIV testing uptake among men in rural South Africa.

INTRODUCTION: The uptake of HIV testing and linkage to care remains low among men, contributing to high HIV incidence in women in South Africa. We conducted the "Home-Based Intervention to Test and Start" (HITS) in a 2x2 factorial cluster randomized controlled trial in one of the World's largest ongoing HIV cohorts in rural South Africa aimed at enhancing both intrinsic and extrinsic motivations for HIV testing. METHODS: Between February and December 2018, in the uMkhanyakude district of KwaZulu-Natal, we randomly assigned 45 communities (clusters) (n = 13,838 residents) to one of the four arms: (i) financial incentives for home-based HIV testing and linkage to care (R50 [$3] food voucher each); (ii) male-targeted HIV-specific decision support application, called EPIC-HIV; (iii) both financial incentives and male-targeted HIV-specific decision support application and (iv) standard of care (SoC). EPIC-HIV was developed to encourage and serve as an intrinsic motivator for HIV testing and linkage to care, and individually offered to men via a tablet device. Financial incentives were offered to both men and women. Here we report the effect of the interventions on uptake of home-based HIV testing among men. Intention-to-treat (ITT) analysis was performed using modified Poisson regression with adjustment for clustering of standard errors at the cluster levels. RESULTS: Among all 13,838 men ≥ 15 years living in the 45 communities, the overall population coverage during a single round of home-based HIV testing was 20.7%. The uptake of HIV testing was 27.5% (683/2481) in the financial incentives arm, 17.1% (433/2534) in the EPIC-HIV arm, 26.8% (568/2120) in the arm receiving both interventions and 17.8% in the SoC arm. The probability of HIV testing increased substantially by 55% in the financial incentives arm (risk ratio (RR)=1.55, 95% CI: 1.31 to 1.82, p < 0.001) and 51% in the arm receiving both interventions (RR = 1.51, 95% CI: 1.21 to 1.87 p < 0.001), compared to men in the SoC arm. The probability of HIV testing did not significantly differ in the EPIC-HIV arm (RR = 0.96, 95% CI: 0.76 to 1.20, p = 0.70). CONCLUSIONS: The provision of a small financial incentive acted as a powerful extrinsic motivator substantially increasing the uptake of home-based HIV testing among men in rural South Africa. In contrast, the counselling and testing application which was designed to encourage and serve as an intrinsic motivator to test for HIV did not increase the uptake of home-based testing.

Mapping male circumcision for HIV prevention efforts in sub-Saharan Africa.

BACKGROUND: HIV remains the largest cause of disease burden among men and women of reproductive age in sub-Saharan Africa. Voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) reduces the risk of female-to-male transmission of HIV by 50-60%. The World Health Organization (WHO) and Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) identified 14 priority countries for VMMC campaigns and set a coverage goal of 80% for men ages 15-49. From 2008 to 2017, over 18 million VMMCs were reported in priority countries. Nonetheless, relatively little is known about local variation in male circumcision (MC) prevalence. METHODS: We analyzed geo-located MC prevalence data from 109 household surveys using a Bayesian geostatistical modeling framework to estimate adult MC prevalence and the number of circumcised and uncircumcised men aged 15-49 in 38 countries in sub-Saharan Africa at a 5 × 5-km resolution and among first administrative level (typically provinces or states) and second administrative level (typically districts or counties) units. RESULTS: We found striking within-country and between-country variation in MC prevalence; most (12 of 14) priority countries had more than a twofold difference between their first administrative level units with the highest and lowest estimated prevalence in 2017. Although estimated national MC prevalence increased in all priority countries with the onset of VMMC campaigns, seven priority countries contained both subnational areas where estimated MC prevalence increased and areas where estimated MC prevalence decreased after the initiation of VMMC campaigns. In 2017, only three priority countries (Ethiopia, Kenya, and Tanzania) were likely to have reached the MC coverage target of 80% at the national level, and no priority country was likely to have reached this goal in all subnational areas. CONCLUSIONS: Despite MC prevalence increases in all priority countries since the onset of VMMC campaigns in 2008, MC prevalence remains below the 80% coverage target in most subnational areas and is highly variable. These mapped results provide an actionable tool for understanding local needs and informing VMMC interventions for maximum impact in the continued effort towards ending the HIV epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa.

HIV Treatment Substantially Decreases Hospitalization Rates: Evidence From Rural South Africa.

The effect of HIV treatment on hospitalization rates for HIV-infected people has never been established. We quantified this effect in a rural South African community for the period 2009-13. We linked clinical data on HIV treatment start dates for more than 2,000 patients receiving care in the public-sector treatment program with five years of longitudinal data on self-reported hospitalizations from a community-based population cohort of more than 100,000 adults. Hospitalization rates peaked during the first year of treatment and were about five times higher, compared to hospitalization rates after four years on treatment. Earlier treatment initiation could save more than US$300,000 per 1,000 patients over the first four years of HIV treatment, freeing up scarce resources. Future studies on the cost-effectiveness of HIV treatment should include these effects.

The Effect of Antiretroviral Treatment on Health Care Utilization in Rural South Africa: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: The effect of the rapid scale-up of vertical antiretroviral treatment (ART) programs for HIV in sub-Saharan Africa on the overall health system is under intense debate. Some have argued that these programs have reduced access for people suffering from diseases unrelated to HIV because ART programs have drained human and physical resources from other parts of the health system; others have claimed that the investments through ART programs have strengthened the general health system and the population health impacts of ART have freed up health care capacity for the treatment of diseases that are not related to HIV. To establish the population-level impact of ART programs on health care utilization in the public-sector health system, we compared trends in health care utilization among HIV-infected people receiving and not receiving ART with HIV-uninfected people during a period of rapid ART scale-up. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used data from the Wellcome Trust Africa Centre for Population Health, which annually elicited information on health care utilization from all surveillance participants over the period 2009-2012 (N = 32,319). We determined trends in hospitalization, and public-sector and private-sector primary health care (PHC) clinic visits for HIV-infected and -uninfected people over a time period of rapid ART scale-up (2009-2012) in this community. We regressed health care utilization on HIV status and ART status in different calendar years, controlling for sex, age, and area of residence. The proportion of people who reported to have visited a public-sector primary health care (PHC) clinic in the last 6 months increased significantly over the period 2009-2012, for both HIV-infected people (from 59% to 67%; p<0.001), and HIV-uninfected people (from 41% to 47%; p<0.001). In contrast, the proportion of HIV-infected people visiting a private-sector PHC clinic declined from 22% to 12% (p<0.001) and hospitalization rates declined from 128 to 82 per 1000 PY (p<0.001). For HIV-uninfected people, the proportion visiting a private-sector PHC clinic declined from 16% to 9%, and hospitalization rates declined from 78 to 44 per 1000 PY (p<0.001). After controlling for potential confounding factors, all trends remained of similar magnitude and significance. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate that the ART scale-up in this high HIV prevalence community has shifted health care utilization from hospitals and private-sector primary care to public-sector primary care. Remarkably, this shift is observed for both HIV-infected and -uninfected populations, supporting and extending hypotheses of 'therapeutic citizenship' whereby HIV-infected patients receiving ART facilitate primary care access for family and community members. One explanation of our findings is that ART has improved the capacity or quality of primary care in this community and, as a consequence, increasingly met overall health care needs at the primary care level rather than at the secondary level. Future research needs to confirm this causal interpretation of our findings using qualitative work to understand causal mechanisms or quasi-experimental quantitative studies to increase the strength of causal inference.

Brief Report: Virologic Monitoring Can Be a Cost-Effective Strategy to Diagnose Treatment Failure on First-Line ART.

CD4 count testing is perceived to be an affordable strategy to diagnose treatment failure on first-line antiretroviral therapy. We hypothesize that the superior accuracy of viral load (VL) testing will result in less patients being incorrectly switched to more expensive and toxic second-line regimens. Using data from a drug resistance cohort, we show that CD4 testing is approximately double the cost to make 1 correct regimen switch under certain diagnostic thresholds (CD4 = US $499 vs. VL = US $186 or CD4 = US $3031 vs. VL = US $1828). In line with World Health Organization guidelines, our findings show that VL testing can be both an accurate and cost-effective treatment monitoring strategy.

Population uptake of antiretroviral treatment through primary care in rural South Africa.

BACKGROUND: KwaZulu-Natal is the South African province worst affected by HIV and the focus of early modeling studies investigating strategies of antiretroviral treatment (ART) delivery. The reality of antiretroviral roll-out through primary care has differed from that anticipated and real world data are needed to inform the planning of further scaling up of services. We investigated the factors associated with uptake of antiretroviral treatment through a primary healthcare system in rural South Africa. METHODS: Detailed demographic, HIV surveillance and geographic information system (GIS) data were used to estimate the proportion of HIV positive adults accessing antiretroviral treatment within northern KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa in the period from initiation of antiretroviral roll-out until the end of 2008. Demographic, spatial and socioeconomic factors influencing the likelihood of individuals accessing antiretroviral treatment were explored using multivariable analysis. RESULTS: Mean uptake of ART among HIV positive resident adults was 21.0% (95%CI 20.1-21.9). Uptake among HIV positive men (19.2%) was slightly lower than women (21.8%, P = 0.011). An individual's likelihood of accessing ART was not associated with level of education, household assets or urban/rural locale. ART uptake was strongly negatively associated with distance from the nearest primary healthcare facility (aOR = 0.728 per square-root transformed km, 95%CI 0.658-0.963, P = 0.002). CONCLUSIONS: Despite concerns about the equitable nature of antiretroviral treatment rollout, we find very few differences in ART uptake across a range of socio-demographic variables in a rural South African population. However, even when socio-demographic factors were taken into account, individuals living further away from primary healthcare clinics were still significantly less likely to be accessing ART.

Indoor residual spraying for preventing malaria.

BACKGROUND: Primary malaria prevention on a large scale depends on two vector control interventions: indoor residual spraying (IRS) and insecticide-treated mosquito nets (ITNs). Historically, IRS has reduced malaria transmission in many settings in the world, but the health effects of IRS have never been properly quantified. This is important, and will help compare IRS with other vector control interventions. OBJECTIVES: To quantify the impact of IRS alone, and to compare the relative impacts of IRS and ITNs, on key malariological parameters. SEARCH STRATEGY: We searched the Cochrane Infectious Diseases Group Specialized Register (September 2009), CENTRAL (The Cochrane Library 2009, Issue 3), MEDLINE (1966 to September 2009), EMBASE (1974 to September 2009), LILACS (1982 to September 2009), mRCT (September 2009), reference lists, and conference abstracts. We also contacted researchers in the field, organizations, and manufacturers of insecticides (June 2007). SELECTION CRITERIA: Cluster randomized controlled trials (RCTs), controlled before-and-after studies (CBA) and interrupted time series (ITS) of IRS compared to no IRS or ITNs. Studies examining the impact of IRS on special groups not representative of the general population, or using insecticides and dosages not recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) were excluded. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two authors independently reviewed trials for inclusion. Two authors extracted data, assessed risk of bias and analysed the data. Where possible, we adjusted confidence intervals (CIs) for clustering. Studies were grouped into those comparing IRS with no IRS, and IRS compared with ITNs, and then stratified by malaria endemicity. MAIN RESULTS: IRS versus no IRSStable malaria (entomological inoculation rate (EIR) > 1): In one RCT in Tanzania IRS reduced re-infection with malaria parasites detected by active surveillance in children following treatment; protective efficacy (PE) 54%. In the same setting, malaria case incidence assessed by passive surveillance was marginally reduced in children aged one to five years; PE 14%, but not in children older than five years (PE -2%). In the IRS group, malaria prevalence was slightly lower but this was not significant (PE 6%), but mean haemoglobin was higher (mean difference 0.85 g/dL).In one CBA trial in Nigeria, IRS showed protection against malaria prevalence during the wet season (PE 26%; 95% CI 20 to 32%) but not in the dry season (PE 6%; 95% CI -4 to 15%). In one ITS in Mozambique, the prevalence was reduced substantially over a period of 7 years (from 60 to 65% prevalence to 4 to 8% prevalence; the weighted PE before-after was 74% (95% CI 72 to 76%).Unstable malaria (EIR < 1): In two RCTs, IRS reduced the incidence rate of all malaria infections;PE 31% in India, and 88% (95% CI 69 to 96%) in Pakistan. By malaria species, IRS also reduced the incidence of P. falciparum (PE 93%, 95% CI 61 to 98% in Pakistan) and P. vivax (PE 79%, 95% CI 45 to 90% in Pakistan); There were similar impacts on malaria prevalence for any infection: PE 76% in Pakistan; PE 28% in India. When looking separately by parasite species, for P. falciparum there was a PE of 92% in Pakistan and 34% in India; for P. vivax there was a PE of 68% in Pakistan and no impact demonstrated in India (PE of -2%).IRS versus Insecticide Treated Nets (ITNs)Stable malaria (EIR > 1): Only one RCT was done in an area of stable transmission (in Tanzania). When comparing parasitological re-infection by active surveillance after treatment in short-term cohorts, ITNs appeared better, but it was likely not to be significant as the unadjusted CIs approached 1 (risk ratio IRS:ITN = 1.22). When the incidence of malaria episodes was measured by passive case detection, no difference was found in children aged one to five years (risk ratio = 0.88, direction in favour of IRS). No difference was found for malaria prevalence or haemoglobin.Unstable malaria (EIR < 1): Two studies; for incidence and prevalence, the malaria rates were higher in the IRS group compared to the ITN group in one study. Malaria incidence was higher in the IRS arm in India (risk ratio IRS:ITN = 1.48) and in South Africa (risk ratio 1.34 but the cluster unadjusted CIs included 1). For malaria prevalence, ITNs appeared to give better protection against any infection compared to IRS in India (risk ratio IRS:ITN = 1.70) and also for both P. falciparum (risk ratio IRS:ITN = 1.78) and P. vivax (risk ratio IRS:ITN = 1.37). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Historical and programme documentation has clearly established the impact of IRS. However, the number of high-quality trials are too few to quantify the size of effect in different transmission settings. The evidence from randomized comparisons of IRS versus no IRS confirms that IRS reduces malaria incidence in unstable malaria settings, but randomized trial data from stable malaria settings is very limited. Some limited data suggest that ITN give better protection than IRS in unstable areas, but more trials are needed to compare the effects of ITNs with IRS, as well as to quantify their combined effects.

The tuberculosis challenge in a rural South African HIV programme.

BACKGROUND: South Africa remains the country with the greatest burden of HIV-infected individuals and the second highest estimated TB incidence per capita worldwide. Within South Africa, KwaZulu-Natal has one of the highest rates of TB incidence and an emerging epidemic of drug-resistant tuberculosis. METHODS: Review of records of consecutive HIV-infected people initiated onto ART between 1st January 2005 and 31st March 2006. Patients were screened for TB at initiation and incident episodes recorded. CD4 counts, viral loads and follow-up status were recorded; data was censored on 5th August 2008. Geographic cluster analysis was performed using spatial scanning. RESULTS: 801 patients were initiated. TB prevalence was 25.3%, associated with lower CD4 (AHR 2.61 p = 0.01 for CD4 <50 cells/microl) and prior TB (AHR 1.58 p = 0.02). Incidence was 6.89 per 100 person-years from 81 cases over 1175 person-years analysis time and was highest in the first 3 months after ART initiation; associated with male sex and higher log HIV RNA. Prevalent and incident TB were significantly associated with mortality (OR 1.81 p = 0.01 and 2.02 p = 0.01 respectively). Incident TB was associated with a non-significant trend towards viral load >25 copies/ml (OR 1.75 p = 0.11). A low-risk cluster for incident TB was identified for patients living near the local hospital in the geospatial analysis. CONCLUSION: There is a large burden of TB in this population. Rate of incident TB stabilises at a rate higher than that of the overall population. These data highlight the need for greater research on strategies for active case finding in rural settings and the need to focus on strengthening primary health care.

Potential effect of climate change on malaria transmission in Africa.

BACKGROUND: Climate change is likely to affect transmission of vector-borne diseases such as malaria. We quantitatively estimated current malaria exposure and assessed the potential effect of projected climate scenarios on malaria transmission. METHODS: We produced a spatiotemporally validated (against 3791 parasite surveys) model of Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in Africa. Using different climate scenarios from the Hadley Centre global climate model (HAD CM3) climate experiments, we projected the potential effect of climate change on transmission patterns. FINDINGS: Our model showed sensitivity and specificity of 63% and 96%, respectively (within 1 month temporal accuracy), when compared with the parasite surveys. We estimate that on average there are 3.1 billion person-months of exposure (445 million people exposed) in Africa per year. The projected scenarios would estimate a 5-7% potential increase (mainly altitudinal) in malaria distribution with surprisingly little increase in the latitudinal extents of the disease by 2100. Of the overall potential increase (although transmission will decrease in some countries) of 16-28% in person-months of exposure (assuming a constant population), a large proportion will be seen in areas of existing transmission. INTERPRETATION: The effect of projected climate change indicates that a prolonged transmission season is as important as geographical expansion in correct assessment of the effect of changes in transmission patterns. Our model constitutes a valid baseline against which climate scenarios can be assessed and interventions planned.

The application of geographical information systems to important public health problems in Africa.

Africa is generally held to be in crisis, and the quality of life for the majority of the continent's inhabitants has been declining in both relative and absolute terms. In addition, the majority of the world's disease burden is realised in Africa. Geographical information systems (GIS) technology, therefore, is a tool of great inherent potential for health research and management in Africa. The spatial modelling capacity offered by GIS is directly applicable to understanding the spatial variation of disease, and its relationship to environmental factors and the health care system. Whilst there have been numerous critiques of the application of GIS technology to developed world health problems it has been less clear whether the technology is both applicable and sustainable in an African setting. If the potential for GIS to contribute to health research and planning in Africa is to be properly evaluated then the technology must be applicable to the most pressing health problems in the continent. We briefly outline the work undertaken in HIV, malaria and tuberculosis (diseases of significant public health impact and contrasting modes of transmission), outline GIS trends relevant to Africa and describe some of the obstacles to the sustainable implementation of GIS. We discuss types of viable GIS applications and conclude with a discussion of the types of African health problems of particular relevance to the application of GIS.