A Systematic Review of Artificial Intelligence Models for Time-to-Event Outcome Applied in Cardiovascular Disease Risk Prediction.

Artificial intelligence (AI) based predictive models for early detection of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk are increasingly being utilised. However, AI based risk prediction models that account for right-censored data have been overlooked. This systematic review (PROSPERO protocol CRD42023492655) includes 33 studies that utilised machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) models for survival outcome in CVD prediction. We provided details on the employed ML and DL models, eXplainable AI (XAI) techniques, and type of included variables, with a focus on social determinants of health (SDoH) and gender-stratification. Approximately half of the studies were published in 2023 with the majority from the United States. Random Survival Forest (RSF), Survival Gradient Boosting models, and Penalised Cox models were the most frequently employed ML models. DeepSurv was the most frequently employed DL model. DL models were better at predicting CVD outcomes than ML models. Permutation-based feature importance and Shapley values were the most utilised XAI methods for explaining AI models. Moreover, only one in five studies performed gender-stratification analysis and very few incorporate the wide range of SDoH factors in their prediction model. In conclusion, the evidence indicates that RSF and DeepSurv models are currently the optimal models for predicting CVD outcomes. This study also highlights the better predictive ability of DL survival models, compared to ML models. Future research should ensure the appropriate interpretation of AI models, accounting for SDoH, and gender stratification, as gender plays a significant role in CVD occurrence.

Gender-specific analysis of social connection patterns and risk of dementia in community-dwelling older people.

INTRODUCTION: Poor social connection is considered a risk factor for dementia. Since socializing behaviors may cluster together or act compensatorily, we aimed to investigate social connection patterns and their association with dementia, for men and women separately. METHODS: A total of 12,896 community-dwelling older adults (mean ± SD age: 75.2 ± 4.3 years, 54% women) without major cognitive impairment were included. Latent class analysis was conducted using 24 baseline social connection indicators. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate the association between latent classes and incident dementia over 12 (median: 8.4) years follow-up. RESULTS: Three distinct classes were identified in both genders: strong social connections with an intermediate friend-relative network (Class 1: men, 43.8%; women, 37.9%), weak social connections (Class 2: men, 29.6%; women, 27.4%), and strong social connections with a larger friend-relative network (Class 3: men, 26.6%; women, 34.7%). Compared to Class 1, men in Class 2 (HR: 1.38, 95% CI: 1.08-1.77) and women in Class 3 (HR: 1.27, 95% CI: 1.01-1.60) had an increased risk of dementia. DISCUSSION: Dementia risk varies with different social connection patterns among older men and women. HIGHLIGHTS: Three distinct social connection patterns were identified based on 24 indicators. These patterns were related to dementia risk differently in men and women. In men, a weak social connection pattern was associated with a higher dementia risk. In women, a strong social connection with a relatively larger friend-relative network was associated with a greater dementia risk.

Gender-specific aspects of socialisation and risk of cardiovascular disease among community-dwelling older adults: a prospective cohort study using machine learning algorithms and a conventional method.

BACKGROUND: Gender influences cardiovascular disease (CVD) through norms, social relations, roles and behaviours. This study identified gender-specific aspects of socialisation associated with CVD. METHODS: A longitudinal study was conducted, involving 9936 (5,231 women and 4705 men) initially healthy, community-dwelling Australians aged 70 years or more from the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) study and ASPREE Longitudinal Study of Older Persons, with a median follow-up time of 6.4 years. Variable categorisation, variable selection (using machine learning (ML) models; Elastic Net and extreme gradient boosting) and Cox-regression were employed separately by binary gender to identity socialisation factors (n=25 considered) associated with CVD. RESULTS: Different socialisation factors were identified using the ML models. In the Cox model, for both genders, being married/partnered was associated with a reduced risk of CVD (men: HR 0.76, 95% CI 0.60 to 0.96; women: HR 0.67, 95% CI 0.58 to 0.95). For men, having 3-8 relatives they felt close to and could call on for help (HR 0.76, 95% CI 0.58 to 0.99; reference <3 relatives), having 3-8 relatives they felt at ease talking with about private matters (HR 0.70, 95% CI 0.55 to 0.90; reference <3 relatives) or playing games such as chess or cards (HR 0.82, 95% CI 0.67 to 1.00) was associated with reduced risk of CVD. For women, living with others (HR 0.71, 95% CI 0.55 to 0.91) or having ≥3 friends they felt at ease talking with about private matters (HR 0.74, 95% CI 0.58 to 0.95; reference <3 friends) was associated with a lower risk of CVD. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates the need to prioritise gender-specific social factors to improve cardiovascular health in older adults.

Social Activities and Risk of Dementia in Community-Dwelling Older People: Gender-Specific Findings From a Prospective Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVES: This study examines the gender-specific associations between a wide range of social activities and dementia risk. METHODS: A prospective cohort study was conducted involving community-dwelling older Australians (≥70 years) without significant cognitive impairment at enrolment. During the first year of enrolment, we assessed 25 self-reported social activities covering various aspects, including support from relatives and friends, community participation, social interactions with surroundings, and loneliness. Dementia diagnosis followed DSM-IV criteria, adjudicated by an international expert panel. To estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for associations between social activities and dementia, we performed Cox proportional hazards models, adjusting for age, educational attainment, baseline global cognition, and depressive symptoms. RESULTS: Among 9,936 participants who completed all social activity questionnaires (median [IQR] age: 73.4 [71.6-77.1] years; 47.4% men), dementia was diagnosed in 3.8% of men (n = 181/4,705) and 2.6% of women (n = 138/5,231) over a median 6.4 years (IQR: 5.3-7.6, range: 0.2-10.1) follow-up. Gender-specific relationships emerged: caregiving for a person with illness/disability in women (HR: 0.65, 95% CI: 0.42-0.99), and having ≥9 relatives feeling close to call for help in men (HR: 0.56, 95% CI: 0.33-0.96; reference <9 relatives) were associated with reduced dementia risk. Unexpectedly, in women, having ≥5 friends with whom they felt comfortable discussing private matters were associated with a greater dementia risk (HR: 1.69, 95% CI: 1.10-2.59; reference ≤2 friends). Imputed models further identified that babysitting/childminding was associated with lower dementia risk in men (HR: 0.75, 95% CI: 0.56-0.99). No other social activities showed significant associations with dementia. DISCUSSION: This study provides evidence of social activities influencing dementia risk. Further investigations are required to uncover the mechanisms driving these observed relationships.

Factors associated with short birth interval among reproductive-age women in East Africa.

BACKGROUND: Child and maternal mortality continue as a major public health concern in East African countries. Optimal birth interval is a key strategy to curve the huge burden of maternal, neonatal, infant, and child mortality. To reduce the incidence of adverse pregnancy outcomes, the World Health Organization recommends a minimum of 33 months between two consecutive births. Even though short birth interval is most common in many East African countries, as to our search of literature there is limited study published on factors associated with short birth interval. Therefore, this study investigated factors associated with short birth intervals among women in East Africa. OBJECTIVE: To identify factors associated with short birth intervals among reproductive-age women in East Africa based on the most recent demographic and health survey data. DESIGN: A community-based cross-sectional study was conducted based on the most recent demographic and health survey data of 12 East African countries. A two-stage stratified cluster sampling technique was employed to recruit the study participants. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: A total weighted sample of 105,782 reproductive-age women who had two or more births were included. A multilevel binary logistic regression model was fitted to identify factors associated with short birth interval. Four nested models were fitted and a model with the lowest deviance value (-2log-likelihood ratio) was chosen. In the multivariable multilevel binary logistic regression analysis, the adjusted odds ratio with the 95% confidence interval was reported to declare the statistical significance and strength of association between short birth interval and independent variables. RESULTS: The prevalence of short birth interval in East Africa was 16.99% (95% confidence interval: 16.76%, 17.21%). Women aged 25-34 years, who completed their primary education, and did not perceive the distance to the health facility as a major problem had lower odds of short birth interval. On the contrary, women who belonged to the poorest household, made their own decisions with their husbands/partners or by their husbands or parents alone, lived in households headed by men, had unmet family planning needs, and were multiparous had higher odds of having short birth interval. CONCLUSION: Nearly one-fifth of births in East Africa had short birth interval. Therefore, it is essential to promote family planning coverage, improve maternal education, and empower women to decrease the incidence of short birth intervals and their effects.

Population-Modifiable Risk Factors Associated With Childhood Stunting in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Importance: Identifying modifiable risk factors associated with childhood stunting in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is imperative for the development of evidence-based interventions and to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. Objective: To evaluate key modifiable risk factors associated with childhood stunting in SSA. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study examined the most recent (2014-2021) Demographic and Health Surveys data for children younger than 5 years from 25 SSA countries. Exposures: Modifiable risk factors included history of diarrhea within 2 weeks, consumption of dairy products, maternal body mass index, maternal educational level, antenatal care visits, place of birth, wealth index, type of toilet, and type of cooking fuel. Main Outcomes and Measures: Stunting and severe stunting, measured using the height-for-age z score, were the main outcomes. Children who scored below -2.0 SDs or -3.0 SDs were classified as having stunted or severely stunted growth, respectively. Relative risks and 95% CIs were computed using generalized linear latent and mixed models and log-binomial link functions. Population-attributable fractions (PAFs) were calculated using adjusted relative risks and prevalence estimates for key modifiable risk factors. Results: This study included 145 900 children from 25 SSA countries. The mean (SD) age of the children was 29.4 (17.3) months, and 50.6% were male. The highest PAFs of severe childhood stunting were observed for mothers lacking a formal education (PAF, 21.9%; 95% CI, 19.0%-24.8%), children lacking consumption of dairy products (PAF, 20.8%; 95% CI, 16.8%-24.9%), unclean cooking fuel (PAF, 9.5%; 95% CI, 2.6%-16.3%), home birth (PAF, 8.3%; 95% CI, 6.3%-10.0%), and low-income household (PAF, 5.8%; 95% CI, 3.4%-8.0%). These 5 modifiable risk factors were associated with 51.6% (95% CI, 40.5%-60.9%) of the severe childhood stunting in SSA. Conclusions and Relevance: This cross-sectional study identified 5 modifiable risk factors that were associated with 51.6% of severe childhood stunting in SSA. These factors should be a priority for policy makers when considering future child health interventions to address chronic malnutrition in SSA.

Prevalence and associated factors of active trachoma among 1-9 years of age children in Andabet district, northwest Ethiopia, 2023: A multi-level mixed-effect analysis.

BACKGROUND: Trachoma is the chief cause of preventable blindness worldwide and has been earmarked for elimination as a public health problem by 2030. Despite the five-year Surgery, Antibiotics, Facial cleanliness, and Environmental improvement (SAFE)-based interventions in the Andabet district, the prevalence of trachomatous follicular (TF) was 37%. With such a high prevalence of TF, the determinant factors were not revealed. Besides, there were no reports on the overall prevalence of active trachoma (i.e.TF and or trachomatous intense (TI)). OBJECTIVE: To determine the prevalence and associated factors of active trachoma among 1-9 years of age children in the Andabet district. METHOD: A community-based cross-sectional study was conducted among children aged under nine years from March 1-30, 2023 in Andabet district, Northwest Ethiopia. Multi-stage systematic random sampling was employed to reach 540 children. A multilevel mixed-effect logistic regression analysis was employed to assess factors associated with active trachoma. We fitted both random effect and fixed effect analysis. Finally, variables with p<0.05 in the multivariable multilevel analysis were claimed to be significantly associated with active trachoma. RESULT: In this study, the overall prevalence of active trachoma was 35.37% (95% CI: 31.32%, 39.41%). The prevalence of TF and TI was 31.3% and 4.07% respectively. In the multilevel logistic regression analysis ocular discharge, fly-eye contact, latrine utilization, and source of water were significantly associated with the prevalence of active trachoma. CONCLUSION: In this study, the prevalence of active trachoma was much higher than the World Health Organization (WHO) threshold prevalence. Ocular discharge, fly-eye contact, latrine utilization, and source of water were independent determinants of active trachoma among children (1-9 years). Therefore, paying special attention to these high-risk groups could decrease the prevalence of a neglected hyperendemic disease, active trachoma.

Double burden of malnutrition and its associated factors among women in low and middle income countries: findings from 52 nationally representative data.

BACKGROUND: Double burden of malnutrition (DBM) is an emerging global public health problem. The United Nations member states adopted eradicating all forms of malnutrition as an integral component of the global agenda. However, there is evidence of a high burden of undernutrition among women and rising rates of overweight and obesity, especially in low and middle income countries (LMICs). Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the prevalence and associated factors of underweight, overweight, and obesity among women of reproductive age in LMICs. METHODS: Data for the study were drawn from a recent 52 Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) conducted in LMICS. We included a sample of 1,099,187 women of reproductive age. A multilevel multinomial logistic regression model was used to identify factors associated with DBM. Adjusted relative risk ratio (RRR) with a 95% Confidence Interval (CI) was reported to show an association. RESULTS: The prevalence of underweight, overweight, and obesity in LMICs among women of reproductive age was 15.2% (95% CI: 15.1-15.3), 19.0% (95% CI: 18.9- 19.1), and 9.1% (95% CI: 9.0-9.2), respectively. This study found that women aged 24-34 years, aged ≥ 35 years, with primary, secondary, and above educational level, from wealthy households, using modern contraceptives, exposed to media (radio and television), and with high parity (more than one birth) were more likely to have overweight and obesity and less likely to have underweight. Moreover, the risk of having obesity (RRR = 0.59; 95% CI = 0.58-0.60 and overweight (RRR = 0.78; 95% CI = 0.77-0.79) were lower among rural women, while the risk of being underweight was (RRR = 1.13; 95% CI = 1.11-1.15) higher among rural women compared to urban women. CONCLUSION: The prevalence of underweight, overweight, and obesity was high among women of reproductive age in LMICs. Underweight, overweight, and obesity are influenced by sociodemographic, socioeconomic, and behavioral-related factors. This study shows that, in order to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 2, a multifaceted intervention approach should be considered to prevent both forms of malnutrition in women of reproductive age. This can be achieved by raising awareness and promoting healthy behaviors such as healthy eating and physical activity, especially among educated women, women from wealthy households, and women exposed to the media.

Intimate partner violence and its associated factors among reproductive-age women in East Africa:-A generalized mixed effect robust poisson regression model.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization (WHO) has published estimates revealing that around one out of every three women across the globe has been a victim of either physical and/or sexual violence from an intimate partner or non-partner throughout their lifetime. The available evidence on intimate partner violence in East Africa is limited Consequently, the objective of this study was to evaluate the occurrence and factors linked to intimate partner violence in East Africa. METHODS: The study utilized the most recent data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) conducted between 2011 and 2018/19 in 11 countries in Eastern Africa. A total of 59,000 women were included in the study. Descriptive and inferential statistics were used to exmine factors associated with IPV. A mixed effect robust Poisson regression model was fitted to identify factors associated with intimate partner violence. The adjusted prevalence ratio (aPR) and its corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI) were employed to determine the presence of a significant association between intimate partner violence and the independent variables. RESULTS: In this study, the prevalence of intimate partner violence in East Africa was 43.72% with 95% CI 43.32% to 44.12%. In the mixed effect robust Poisson regression model:-Marital status, working status, parity, sex of household headed, wealth index, community poverty, and residence, were significantly associated with intimate partner violence. CONCLUSION: The prevalence of intimate partner violence in East Africa is high as compared to the global prevalence 30%, which hinders The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), specifically goal 5, aim to attain gender equality and empower women and girls worldwide by the year 2030 Women being previously married and cohabitated, working, having a high number of children, rural residents were positively associated with IPV and household and community wealth index and sex of household headed were negatively related with IPV in East Africa. Therefore, we recommend establishing effective health and legal response using an integrated policy approach and Special attention should be given to women who live rural and poorest to reduce IPV and to achieve Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) goal 5.

Contraceptive use pattern based on the number and composition of children among married women in sub-Saharan Africa: a multilevel analysis.

BACKGROUND: The relationship between composition of children and contraception use has received limited scholarly attention in sub-Saharan Africa. In this study, we examined the relationship between contraceptive methods, the number and composition of children in SSA. METHODS: Data on 21 countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries that had a Demographic and Health Survey on or before 2015 were analysed. We applied a multilevel multinomial logistic regression model to assess the influence of family composition on contraceptive use. Adjusted relative risk ratio (aRRR) and 95% CI were estimated. The significant level was set at p < 0.05. All the analyses were conducted using weighted data. RESULTS: Women who had one son and two daughters (aRRR = 0.85, CI = 0.75, 0.95), two sons and one daughter (aRRR = 0.81 CI = 0.72, 0.92), one son and three daughters (aRRR = 0.66, CI = 0.54, 0.80), two sons and two daughters (aRRR = 0.59, CI = 0.50, 0.69), and three or more sons (aRRR = 0.75, CI = 0.63, 0.91) were less likely to use temporary modern contraceptive methods. Those with two sons and two daughters were less likely to use traditional methods (aRRR = 0.52, CI = 0.35, 0.78). Women in the older age group (35-49 years) were less likely to use temporary modern methods (aRRR = 0.60; 95%CI; 0.57, 0.63). However, this group of women were more likely to use permanent (sterilization) (aRRR = 1.71; 95%CI; 1.50, 1.91) and traditional methods (aRRR = 1.28; 95%CI; 1.14, 1.43). CONCLUSION: These findings suggest that contraception needs of women vary based on the composition of their children, hence a common approach or intervention will not fit. As a result, contraception interventions ought to be streamlined to meet the needs of different categories of women. The findings can inform policymakers and public health professionals in developing effective strategies to improve contraceptive use in SSA.

The Role of Social Determinants of Health in Cardiovascular Diseases: An Umbrella Review.

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of mortality worldwide. Addressing social determinants of health (SDoH) may be the next forefront of reducing the enormous burden of CVD. SDoH can be defined as any social, economic, or environmental factor that influences a health outcome. Comprehensive evidence of the role of SDoH in CVD is lacking, nevertheless. This umbrella review aims to give a comprehensive overview of the role of SDoH in CVD. We searched systematic reviews (with or without meta-analyses) using 8 databases and included review reference lists. Four themes (economic circumstances, social/community context, early childhood development, and neighbourhood/built environment) and health literacy in the health/health care theme were considered. Seventy reviews were eligible. Despite the quality of the included reviews being low or critically low, there was consistent evidence that factors relating to economic circumstances and early childhood development themes were associated with an increased risk of CVD and CVD mortality. We also found evidence that factors in the social/community context and neighbourhood/built environment themes, such as social isolation, fewer social roles, loneliness, discrimination, ethnicity, neighborhood socioeconomic status, violence, and environmental attributes, had a role in CVD. SDoH factors without (or with minimal) evidence synthesis for CVD were also identified. In sum, this umbrella review offers evidence that SDoH, especially economic circumstance and early childhood development, play a significant role in CVD. This calls for the strengthening of nonmedical interventions that address multiple factors simultaneously and the inclusion of SDoH in future CVD risk prediction models. Registration URL: https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/; Unique identifier: CRD42022346994.

The relationship between social isolation, social support, and loneliness with cardiovascular disease and shared risk factors: A narrative review.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the greatest contributor to global morbidity and mortality. Poor social health plays a critical role in CVD incidence. Additionally, the relationship between social health and CVD may be mediated through CVD risk factors. However, the underlying mechanisms between social health and CVD are poorly understood. Certain social health constructs (social isolation, low social support and loneliness) have complicated the characterisation of a causal relationship between social health and CVD. AIM: To provide an overview of the relationship between social health and CVD (and its shared risk factors). METHOD: In this narrative review, we examined published literature on the relationship between three social health constructs (social isolation, social support, and loneliness) and CVD. Evidence was synthesised in a narrative format, focusing on the potential ways in which social health affects CVD, including shared risk factors. RESULTS: The current literature highlights an established relationship between social health and CVD with a likelihood for bi-directionality. However, there is speculation and varied evidence regarding how these relationships may be mediated through CVD risk factors. CONCLUSIONS: Social health can be considered an established risk factor for CVD. However, the potential bi-directional pathways of social health with CVD risk factors are less established. Further research is needed to understand whether targeting certain constructs of social health may directly improve the management of CVD risk factors. Given the health and economic burdens of poor social health and CVD, improvements to addressing or preventing these interrelated health conditions would have societal benefits.

Lifetime posttraumatic stress disorder as a predictor of mortality: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Posttraumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) could potentially increase the risk of mortality, and there is a need for a meta-analysis to quantify this association. This study aims to determine the extent to which PTSD is a predictor of mortality. METHODS: EMBASE, MEDLINE, and PsycINFO were searched systematically on 12th February 2020, with updated searches conducted in July 2021, and December 2022 (PROSPERO CRD42019142971). Studies involving community-dwelling participants with a diagnosis of PTSD or PTSD symptoms, and a comparator group of individuals without PTSD, and which assessed mortality risk, were included. A random-effects meta-analysis was conducted on studies reporting Odds Ratio (OR), Hazard Ratio (HR), and Risk Ratio (RR), and subgroup analysis was also performed by age, sex, type of trauma experienced, PTSD diagnosis, and cause of death. RESULTS: A total of 30 eligible studies of mostly good methodological quality were identified, with a total of more than 2.1 million participants with PTSD. The majority of studies involved male-dominated, veteran populations. PTSD was associated with a 47% (95% CI: 1.06-2.04) greater risk of mortality across six studies that reported OR/RR, and a 32% increased risk across 18 studies which reported time to death (HR: 1.32, 95% CI: 1.10-1.59). There was very high study heterogeneity (I2 > 94%) and this was not explained by the prespecified subgroup analysis. CONCLUSION: PTSD is associated with increased mortality risk, however further research is required amongst civilians, involving women, and in individuals from underdeveloped countries.

Estimating the impact of birth interval on under-five mortality in east african countries: a propensity score matching analysis.

BACKGROUND: Under-five mortality remains a global public health concern, particularly in East African countries. Short birth interval is highly associated with under-five mortality, and birth spacing has a significant effect on a child's likelihood of survival. The association between short birth intervals and under-five mortality was demonstrated by numerous observational studies. However, the effect of short birth intervals on under-five mortality has not been investigated yet. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the impact of short birth intervals on under-five mortality in East Africa using Propensity Matched Analysis. METHODS: A secondary data analysis was conducted based on the most recent Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data of 12 East African countries. A total weighted sample of 105,662 live births was considered for this study. A PSM analysis was carried out to evaluate the effect of short birth intervals on under-five mortality. Under-five mortality was the outcome variable, while the short birth interval was considered a treatment variable. To determine the Average Treatment Effect on the population (ATE), Average Treatment Effect on the treated (ATT), and Average Treatment Effect on the untreated (ATU), we performed PSM analysis with a logit-based model using the psmatch2 ate STATA function. The quality of matching was assessed statistically and graphically. The common support assumption was checked and fulfilled. We have employed Mantel-Haenszel bounds to examine whether the result would be free from hidden bias or not. RESULTS: The prevalence of short birth intervals in East Africa was 44%. The under-five mortality rate among mothers who had optimal birth intervals was 39.9 (95% CI: 38.3, 41.5) per 1000 live births while it was 60.6 (95% CI: 58.5, 62.8) per 1000 live births among mothers who had a short birth intervals. Propensity score matching split births from mothers into treatment and control groups based on the preceding birth interval. In the PSM analysis, the ATT values in the treated and control groups were 6.09% and 3.97%, respectively, showed under-five mortality among births to mothers with short birth intervals was 2.17% higher than births to mothers who had an optimal birth interval. The ATU values in the intervention and control groups were 3.90% and 6.06%, respectively, indicating that for births from women who had an optimal birth interval, the chance of dying within five years would increase by 2.17% if they were born to mother with short birth interval. The final ATE estimate was 2.14% among the population. After matching, there was no significant difference in baseline characteristics between the treated and control groups (p-value > 0.05), which indicates the quality of matching was good. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that enhancing mothers to have optimal birth spacing is likely to be an effective approach to reducing the incidence of under-five mortality. Our findings suggest that births to mothers with short birth intervals have an increased risk of death in the first five years of life than births to mothers who had an optimal birth interval. Therefore, public health programs should enhance interventions targeting improving birth spacing to reduce the incidence of under-five mortality in low-and middle-income countries like East African countries. Moreover, to achieve a significant reduction in the under-five mortality rate, interventions that encourage birth spacing should be considered. This will improve child survival and help in attaining Sustainable Development Goal targets in East African countries.

Assessing the effects of duration of birth interval on adverse pregnancy outcomes in sub-Saharan Africa: a propensity score-matched analysis.

OBJECTIVES: Unlike high-income countries, sub-Saharan African countries have the highest burden of adverse pregnancy outcomes such as abortion, stillbirth, low birth weight and preterm births. The WHO set optimal birth spacing as a key strategy to improve pregnancy outcomes. Estimating the impact of short and long birth intervals on adverse pregnancy outcomes based on an observational study like the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) is prone to selection bias. Therefore, we used the propensity score-matched (PSM) analysis to estimate the actual impact of short and long birth intervals on adverse pregnancy outcomes. DESIGN: A community-based cross-sectional study was conducted based on the DHS data. SETTING: We used the recent DHS data of 36 sub-Saharan African countries. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 302 580 pregnant women for stillbirth and abortion, 153 431 for birth weight and 115 556 births for preterm births were considered. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES: To estimate the impact of duration of birth interval (short/long) on adverse pregnancy outcomes, we used PSM analysis with logit model using psmatch2 ate STATA command to find average treatment effect on the population (ATE), treated and untreated. The quality of matching was assessed statistically and graphically. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to test the robustness of the PSM estimates using the Mantel-Haenszel test statistic. RESULTS: The prevalence of short and long birth intervals in sub-Saharan Africa was 46.85% and 13.61%, respectively. The prevalence rates of abortion, stillbirth, low birth weight, macrosomia, and preterm births were 6.11%, 0.84%, 9.63%, 9.04%, and 4.87%, respectively. In the PSM analysis, the differences in ATE of short birth intervals on abortion, stillbirth, low birth weight, and preterm births were 0.5%, 0.1%, 0.2%, and 0.4%, respectively, and -2.6% for macrosomia. The difference in ATE among the treated group was 1%, 1%, and 1.1% increased risk of abortion, low birth weight, and preterm births, respectively, while there was no difference in risk of stillbirth between the treated and control groups. The ATEs of long birth intervals on abortion, stillbirth, low birth weight, macrosomia and preterm births were 1.3%, 0.4%, 1.0%, 3.4%, and 0.2%, respectively. The ATE on the treated group had 0.9%, 0.4%, 2.4%, 2.8%, and 0.2% increased risk of abortion, stillbirth, low birth weight, macrosomia, and preterm births, respectively. The estimates were insensitive to hidden bias and had a good quality of matching. CONCLUSION: Short and long birth intervals had a significant positive impact on stillbirth, abortion, low birth weight, macrosomia and preterm births after matching treated and control groups by observed variables. These findings highlighted maternal and newborn healthcare programmes and policies to empower reproductive-aged women to exercise optimal birth spacing to reduce the incidence of stillbirth, abortion, low birth weight, macrosomia and preterm births.

Socioeconomic Inequality in Knowledge About HIV and Its Contributing Factors Among Women of Reproductive Age in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Multicountry and Decomposition Analysis.

Aim: To examine the socioeconomic inequality in knowledge about HIV and its contributing factors among women of reproductive age in sub-Saharan Africa. Methods: We have used the most recent demographic and health survey data of the 15 sub-Saharan African countries. 204,495 women of reproductive age made up the entire weighted sample. Erreygers normalized concentration index (ECI) was utilized to evaluate socioeconomic inequality in knowledge about HIV. The variables that contributed to the observed socioeconomic inequality were determined using decomposition analysis. Results: We found the pro-rich inequality in knowledge about HIV (the weighted ECI was 0.16 with a Standard error = 0.007 and P value< 0.001). The decomposition analysis indicated that educational status (46.10%), wealth status (30.85%), listening to the radio (21.73%), and reading newspapers (7.05%) were among the contributors to the pro-rich socioeconomic inequalities in knowledge about HIV. Conclusion: Having knowledge about HIV is concentrated among rich reproductive-age women. Educational status, wealth status, and media exposure were the major contributors and should be a priority for interventions to reduce the inequality in knowledge about HIV.

Appropriate feeding practice and associated factors among under-five children with diarrheal disease in sub-Saharan Africa: a multi-country analysis.

BACKGROUND: Diarrheal disease is one of the leading causes of child mortality and morbidity in low-income countries. Although the provision of more fluid and solid foods during diarrhea are important to treat the diseases, in Africa, food and fluid restrictions are common during diarrheal illness. Therefore, the aim of this study was to determine appropriate feeding practice and associated factors among under-five children with diarrheal disease in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). METHODS: We have used the appended most recent demographic and health survey (DHS) datasets of 35 sub-Saharan countries conducted from 2010 to 2020. A total weighted sample of 42,882 living children with diarrhea were included in the analyses. Multivariable multilevel binary logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with appropriate child feeding practice in SSA. A p value of ≤ 0.05 was used as a cut of point to declare statistically significant variables. RESULTS: The overall prevalence of appropriate child feeding practice in this study was 10.45% (95% CI 10.17-10.74). The odds of having appropriate child feeding practice was higher among women with primary (AOR = 1.27: 1.17-1.37), secondary (AOR = 1.38: 1.25-1.52), and higher education level (AOR = 1.52: 1.21-1.90), media exposure (AOR = 1.11: 1.11-1.29), richer (AOR = 1.23:1.01-1.26) and richest (AOR = 1.19:1.05-1.35) wealth index, and currently working (AOR = 1.12: 1.04-1.19). CONCLUSION: The prevalence of appropriate child feeding practice in this study was found to be very low. It advisable to reduce diarrhea-related child mortality through enhancing diarrhea management practice especially by working on the after mentioned factors.

Effectiveness of social prescribing for chronic disease prevention in adults: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials.

BACKGROUND: Social prescribing (SP) enables healthcare professionals to link patients with non-medical interventions available in the community to address underlying socioeconomic and behavioural determinants. We synthesised the evidence to understand the effectiveness of SP for chronic disease prevention. METHODS: A systematic literature search was conducted using five databases and two registries. Eligible studies included randomised controlled trials of SP among community-dwelling adults recruited from primary care or community setting, investigating any chronic disease risk factors defined by the WHO (behavioural factors: smoking, physical inactivity, unhealthy diet and excessive alcohol consumption; metabolic factors: raised blood pressure, overweight/obesity, hyperlipidaemia and hyperglycaemia). Random effect meta-analyses were performed at two time points: completion of intervention and follow-up after trial. RESULTS: We identified nine reports from eight trials totalling 4621 participants. All studies evaluated SP exercise interventions which were highly heterogeneous regarding the content, duration, frequency and length of follow-up. Majority of studies had some concerns for risk of bias. Meta-analysis revealed that SP likely increased physical activity (completion: mean difference (MD) 21 min/week, 95% CI 3 to 39, I2=0%; follow-up ≤12 months: MD 19 min/week, 95% CI 8 to 29, I2=0%). However, SP may not improve markers of adiposity, blood pressure, glucose and serum lipid. There were no eligible studies that primarily target unhealthy diet, smoking and excessive alcohol drinking behaviours. CONCLUSIONS: SP exercise interventions probably increased physical activity slightly; however, no benefits were observed for metabolic factors. Determining whether SP is effective in modifying the determinants of chronic diseases and promotes sustainable healthy behaviours is limited by the current evidence of quantification and uncertainty, warranting further rigorous studies. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42022346687.

Exploring spatial variations and the individual and contextual factors of uptake of measles-containing second dose vaccine among children aged 24 to 35 months in Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: To eliminate measles, which is a devastating contagious disease, Ethiopia introduced the measles-containing second dose vaccine (MCV2) that will be given in the second year of life. Despite its paramount benefit, the coverage was low worldwide and, in Ethiopia, there is scarce evidence on the geographic variations and factors associated with uptake of MCV2. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to explore the spatial variations and the individual and contextual factors of uptake of measles-containing second dose vaccine among children aged 24 to 35 months in Ethiopia. METHODS: We used the 2019 Ethiopian Mini Demographic and Health Survey data. A total weighted sample of 800 children aged 24 to 35 months was used. Multilevel analysis was employed and an adjusted odds ratio (AOR) with a 95% confidence interval (CI) was reported. Factors with a p-value<0.05 in the multivariable analysis were declared to be significant predictors of MCV2 uptake. To explore the spatial variations of MCV2 uptake, we have conducted spatial analysis using both Arc GIS version 10.7 and SaTScan version 9.6 software. RESULTS: The proportion of MCV2 uptake was 9.84% (95% CI: 7.96%, 12.11%). Children whose mothers were aged 20-34 years (AOR = 0.19; 95%CI: 0.05, 0.69) and 35-49 years (AOR = 0.21; 95%CI: 0.04, 0.90), being the 4th-5th child (AOR = 4.02; 95%CI: 1.45, 11.14) and 6th and above child (AOR = 4.12; 95%CI: 1.42, 13.05) and children who did not receive full childhood vaccinations (AOR = 0.44; 95%CI: 0.25, 0.77) were significantly associated with MCV2 uptake. Besides, MCV2 uptake was clustered in Ethiopia (Global Moran's I = 0.074, p-value <0.01). The primary cluster spatial window was detected in the Benishangul-Gumuz region with LLR = 10.05 and p = 0.011. CONCLUSION: The uptake of MCV2 in Ethiopia was low. Maternal age, birth order, and uptake of the other basic vaccines were associated with MCV2 uptake. Besides, MCV2 uptake was clustered in Ethiopia and the primary cluster spatial window was located in the Benishangul-Gumuz region. Therefore, special concern should be given to regions with lower MCV2 uptake such as the Benishangul-Gumuz region. Besides, it is better to give attention to basic vaccination programs.