RESUMEN
Human infection by Baylisascaris procyonis can result in larva migrans syndromes, which can cause severe neurological sequelae and fatal cases. The raccoon serves as the definitive host of the nematode, harboring adult worms in its intestine and excreting millions of eggs into the environment via its feces. Transmission to paratenic hosts (such as rodents, birds and rabbits) or to humans occurs by accidental ingestion of eggs. The occurrence of B. procyonis in wild raccoons has been reported in several Western European countries. In France, raccoons have currently established three separate and expanding populations as a result of at least three independent introductions. Until now the presence of B. procyonis in these French raccoon populations has not been investigated. Between 2011 and 2021, 300 raccoons were collected from both the south-western and north-eastern populations. The core parts of the south-western and north-eastern French raccoon populations were free of B. procyonis. However, three worms (molecularly confirmed) were detected in a young raccoon found at the edge of the north-eastern French raccoon population, close to the Belgian and Luxemburg borders. Population genetic structure analysis, genetic exclusion tests and factorial correspondence analysis all confirmed that the infected raccoon originated from the local genetic population, while the same three approaches showed that the worms were genetically distinct from the two nearest known populations in Germany and the Netherlands. The detection of an infected raccoon sampled east of the northeastern population raises strong questions about the routes of introduction of the roundworms. Further studies are required to test wild raccoons for the presence of B. procyonis in the area of the index case and further east towards the border with Germany.
RESUMEN
The epidemic of COVID-19 has shown different developments in Africa compared to the other continents. Three different approaches were used in this study to analyze this situation. In the first part, basic statistics were performed to estimate the contribution of the elderly people to the total numbers of cases and deaths in comparison to the other continents; Similarly, the health systems capacities were analysed to assess the level of underreporting. In the second part, differential equations were reconstructed from the epidemiological time series of cases and deaths (from the John Hopkins University) to analyse the dynamics of COVID-19 in seventeen countries. In the third part, the time evolution of the contact number was reconstructed since the beginning of the outbreak to investigate the effectiveness of the mitigation strategies. Results were compared to the Oxford stringency index and to the mobility indices of the Google Community Mobility Reports. Compared to Europe, the analyses show that the lower proportion of elderly people in Africa enables to explain the lower total numbers of cases and deaths by a factor of 5.1 on average (from 1.9 to 7.8). It corresponds to a genuine effect. Nevertheless, COVID-19 numbers are effectively largely underestimated in Africa by a factor of 8.5 on average (from 1.7 to 20. and more) due to the weakness of the health systems at country level. Geographically, the models obtained for the dynamics of cases and deaths reveal very diversified dynamics. The dynamics is chaotic in many contexts, including a situation of bistability rarely observed in dynamical systems. Finally, the contact number directly deduced from the epidemiological observations reveals an effective role of the mitigation strategies on the short term. On the long term, control measures have contributed to maintain the epidemic at a low level although the progressive release of the stringency did not produce a clear increase of the contact number. The arrival of the omicron variant is clearly detected and characterised by a quick increase of interpeople contact, for most of the African countries considered in the analysis.
