Explanatory models and animal health-seeking behavior for East Coast fever in rural Kenya: an ethnographic study.

Introduction: Explanatory models of disease focus on individuals' and groups' understandings of diseases, revealing a disconnect between livestock keepers and animal health providers. Animal health providers rely on models grounded in their veterinary training and experience. At the same time, livestock keepers may construct models based on traditional knowledge and their lived experience with East Coast fever in their cattle herds. To better understand East Coast fever and develop more efficient management strategies, this ethnographic study used the explanatory models' framework to provide a structured way for comprehending and contrasting different beliefs and understandings of East Coast fever as perceived by the livestock keepers across the different livestock production systems. Method: Multiple data collection methods were employed, including unstructured observations, 30 in-depth interviews (IDIs), 18 focus group discussions (FGDs), and 25 key informant interviews (KIIs). Results: Adult cattle, calves and sheep were perceived as susceptible to East Coast fever. However, there were varying perceptions of livestock susceptible to East Coast fever in the different livestock production systems. East Coast fever was attributed to multiple factors, including ticks, tsetse flies, mosquitos, birds, stagnant, dirty, or contaminated water, and livestock-wildlife interactions. However, some aspects were specific to the production system. Livestock keepers classified diseases based on observable signs, grouping diseases with similar signs under the same classification. Moreover, livestock keepers described different forms of East Coast fever ranging from treatable to fatal, which could be distinguished by the signs they presented. Self-treatment with drugs from the local agro-vet shops was the initial course of action during suspected cases of East Coast fever. Animal health practitioners were the last resort if self-treatment did not produce the desired outcome. Livestock keepers perceived avoidance of stagnant or contaminated water, tick control, and fencing as effective control measures for East Coast fever in their livestock herd. Very few livestock keepers were aware of an East Coast fever vaccine. Discussion: Mechanistic explanations hold little significance in controlling East Coast fever. Instead, understanding and addressing livestock keepers' beliefs regarding ECF is crucial for promoting behaviors that support interventions across different livestock production systems.

The evolution of Kenya's animal health surveillance system and its potential for efficient detection of zoonoses.

Introduction: Animal health surveillance systems in Kenya have undergone significant changes and faced various challenges throughout the years. Methods: In this article, we present a comprehensive overview of the Kenya animal health surveillance system (1944 to 2024), based on a review of archived documents, a scoping literature review, and an examination of past surveillance assessments and evaluation reports. Results: The review of archived documents revealed key historical events that have shaped the surveillance system. These include the establishment of the Directorate of Veterinary Services in 1895, advancements in livestock farming, the implementation of mandatory disease control interventions in 1944, the growth of veterinary services from a section to a ministry in 1954, the disruption caused by the Mau Mau insurrection from 1952 to 1954, which led to the temporary halt of agriculture in certain regions until 1955, the transition of veterinary clinical services from public to private, and the progressive privatization plan for veterinary services starting in 1976. Additionally, we highlight the development of electronic surveillance from 2003 to 2024. The scoping literature review, assessments and evaluation reports uncovered several strengths and weaknesses of the surveillance system. Among the strengths are a robust legislative framework, the adoption of technology in surveillance practices, the existence of a formal intersectoral coordination platform, the implementation of syndromic, sentinel, and community-based surveillance methods, and the presence of a feedback mechanism. On the other hand, the system's weaknesses include the inadequate implementation of strategies and enforcement of laws, the lack of standard case definitions for priority diseases, underutilization of laboratory services, the absence of formal mechanisms for data sharing across sectors, insufficient resources for surveillance and response, limited integration of surveillance and laboratory systems, inadequate involvement of private actors and communities in disease surveillance, and the absence of a direct supervisory role between the national and county veterinary services. Discussion and recommendations: To establish an effective early warning system, we propose the integration of surveillance systems and the establishment of formal data sharing mechanisms. Furthermore, we recommend enhancing technological advancements and adopting artificial intelligence in surveillance practices, as well as implementing risk-based surveillance to optimize the allocation of surveillance resources.

Geographic Distribution of Rabies Virus and Genomic Sequence Alignment of Wild and Vaccine Strains, Kenya.

Rabies, a viral disease that causes lethal encephalitis, kills ≈59,000 persons worldwide annually, despite availability of effective countermeasures. Rabies is endemic in Kenya and is mainly transmitted to humans through bites from rabid domestic dogs. We analyzed 164 brain stems collected from rabid animals in western and eastern Kenya and evaluated the phylogenetic relationships of rabies virus (RABV) from the 2 regions. We also analyzed RABV genomes for potential amino acid changes in the vaccine antigenic sites of nucleoprotein and glycoprotein compared with RABV vaccine strains commonly used in Kenya. We found that RABV genomes from eastern Kenya overwhelmingly clustered with the Africa-1b subclade and RABV from western Kenya clustered with Africa-1a. We noted minimal amino acid variances between the wild and vaccine virus strains. These data confirm minimal viral migration between the 2 regions and that rabies endemicity is the result of limited vaccine coverage rather than limited efficacy.

How Does Treatment Coverage and Proportion Never Treated Influence the Success of Schistosoma mansoni Elimination as a Public Health Problem by 2030?

BACKGROUND: The 2030 target for schistosomiasis is elimination as a public health problem (EPHP), achieved when the prevalence of heavy-intensity infection among school-aged children (SAC) reduces to <1%. To achieve this, the new World Health Organization guidelines recommend a broader target of population to include pre-SAC and adults. However, the probability of achieving EPHP should be expected to depend on patterns in repeated uptake of mass drug administration by individuals. METHODS: We employed 2 individual-based stochastic models to evaluate the impact of school-based and community-wide treatment and calculated the number of rounds required to achieve EPHP for Schistosoma mansoni by considering various levels of the population never treated (NT). We also considered 2 age-intensity profiles, corresponding to a low and high burden of infection in adults. RESULTS: The number of rounds needed to achieve this target depends on the baseline prevalence and the coverage used. For low- and moderate-transmission areas, EPHP can be achieved within 7 years if NT ≤10% and NT <5%, respectively. In high-transmission areas, community-wide treatment with NT <1% is required to achieve EPHP. CONCLUSIONS: The higher the intensity of transmission, and the lower the treatment coverage, the lower the acceptable value of NT becomes. Using more efficacious treatment regimens would permit NT values to be marginally higher. A balance between target treatment coverage and NT values may be an adequate treatment strategy depending on the epidemiological setting, but striving to increase coverage and/or minimize NT can shorten program duration.

Elimination of transmission of onchocerciasis (river blindness) with long-term ivermectin mass drug administration with or without vector control in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: WHO has proposed elimination of transmission of onchocerciasis (river blindness) by 2030. More than 99% of cases of onchocerciasis are in sub-Saharan Africa. Vector control and mass drug administration of ivermectin have been the main interventions for many years, with varying success. We aimed to identify factors associated with elimination of onchocerciasis transmission in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: For this systematic review and meta-analysis we searched for published articles reporting epidemiological or entomological assessments of onchocerciasis transmission status in sub-Saharan Africa, with or without vector control. We searched MEDLINE, PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, African Index Medicus, and Google Scholar databases for all articles published from database inception to Aug 19, 2023, without language restrictions. The search terms used were "onchocerciasis" AND "ivermectin" AND "mass drug administration". The three inclusion criteria were (1) focus or foci located in Africa, (2) reporting of elimination of transmission or at least 10 years of ivermectin mass drug administration in the focus or foci, and (3) inclusion of at least one of the following assessments: microfilarial prevalence, nodule prevalence, Ov16 antibody seroprevalence, and blackfly infectivity prevalence. Epidemiological modelling studies and reviews were excluded. Four reviewers (NM, AJ, AM, and TNK) extracted data in duplicate from the full-text articles using a data extraction tool developed in Excel with columns recording the data of interest to be extracted, and a column where important comments for each study could be highlighted. We did not request any individual-level data from authors. Foci were classified as achieving elimination of transmission, being close to elimination of transmission, or with ongoing transmission. We used mixed-effects meta-regression models to identify factors associated with transmission status. This study is registered in PROSPERO, CRD42022338986. FINDINGS: Of 1525 articles screened after the removal of duplicates, 75 provided 282 records from 238 distinct foci in 19 (70%) of the 27 onchocerciasis-endemic countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Elimination of transmission was reported in 24 (9%) records, being close to elimination of transmission in 86 (30%) records, and ongoing transmission in 172 (61%) records. I2 was 83·3% (95% CI 79·7 to 86·3). Records reporting 10 or more years of continuous mass drug administration with 80% or more therapeutic coverage of the eligible population yielded significantly higher odds of achieving elimination of transmission (log-odds 8·5 [95% CI 3·5 to 13·5]) or elimination and being close to elimination of transmission (42·4 [18·7 to 66·1]) than those with no years achieving 80% coverage or more. Reporting 15-19 years of ivermectin mass drug administration (22·7 [17·2 to 28·2]) and biannual treatment (43·3 [27·2 to 59·3]) were positively associated with elimination and being close to elimination of transmission compared with less than 15 years and no biannual mass drug administration, respectively. Having had vector control without vector elimination (-42·8 [-59·1 to -26·5]) and baseline holoendemicity (-41·97 [-60·6 to -23·2]) were associated with increased risk of ongoing transmission compared with no vector control and hypoendemicity, respectively. Blackfly disappearance due to vector control or environmental change contributed to elimination of transmission. INTERPRETATION: Mass drug administration duration, frequency, and coverage; baseline endemicity; and vector elimination or disappearance are important determinants of elimination of onchocerciasis transmission in sub-Saharan Africa. Our findings underscore the importance of improving and sustaining high therapeutic coverage and increasing treatment frequency if countries are to achieve elimination of onchocerciasis transmission. FUNDING: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Neglected Tropical Diseases Modelling Consortium, UK Medical Research Council, and Global Health EDCTP3 Joint Undertaking. TRANSLATIONS: For the Swahili, French, Spanish and Portuguese translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Ecological and subject-level drivers of interepidemic Rift Valley fever virus exposure in humans and livestock in Northern Kenya.

Nearly a century after the first reports of Rift Valley fever (RVF) were documented in Kenya, questions on the transmission dynamics of the disease remain. Specifically, data on viral maintenance in the quiescent years between epidemics is limited. We implemented a cross-sectional study in northern Kenya to determine the seroprevalence, risk factors, and ecological predictors of RVF in humans and livestock during an interepidemic period. Six hundred seventy-six human and 1,864 livestock samples were screened for anti-RVF Immunoglobulin G (IgG). Out of the 1,864 livestock samples tested for IgG, a subset of 1,103 samples was randomly selected for additional testing to detect the presence of anti-RVFV Immunoglobulin M (IgM). The anti-RVF virus (RVFV) IgG seropositivity in livestock and humans was 21.7% and 28.4%, respectively. RVFV IgM was detected in 0.4% of the livestock samples. Participation in the slaughter of livestock and age were positively associated with RVFV exposure in humans, while age was a significant factor in livestock. We detected significant interaction between rainfall and elevation's influence on livestock seropositivity, while in humans, elevation was negatively associated with RVF virus exposure. The linear increase of human and livestock exposure with age suggests an endemic transmission cycle, further corroborated by the detection of IgM antibodies in livestock.

The impact of livestock interventions on nutritional outcomes of children younger than 5 years old and women in Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background: Nutrition-sensitive livestock interventions have the potential to improve the nutrition of communities that are dependent on livestock for their livelihoods by increasing the availability and access to animal-source foods. These interventions can also boost household income, improving purchasing power for other foods, as well as enhance determinants of health. However, there is a lack of synthesized empirical evidence of the impact and effect of livestock interventions on diets and human nutritional status in Africa. Objective: To review evidence of the effectiveness of nutrition-sensitive livestock interventions in improving diets and nutritional status in children younger than 5 years old and in pregnant and lactating women. Methods: Following PRISMA guidelines, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of published studies reporting on the effect of livestock interventions on maternal and child nutrition in Africa. Data were extracted, synthesized, and summarized qualitatively. Key outcomes were presented in summary tables alongside a narrative summary. Estimation of pooled effects was undertaken for experimental studies with nutritional outcomes of consumption of animal-source foods (ASFs) and minimum dietary diversity (MDD). Fixed effects regression models and pooled effect sizes were computed and reported as odds ratios (ORs) together with their 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results: After the screening, 29 research papers were included in the review, and of these, only 4 were included in the meta-analysis. We found that nutrition-sensitive livestock interventions have a significant positive impact on the consumption of ASFs for children < 5 years (OR = 5.39; 95% CI: 4.43-6.56) and on the likelihood of meeting minimum dietary diversity (OR = 1.89; 95% CI: 1.51-2.37). Additionally, the impact of livestock interventions on stunting, wasting, and being underweight varied depending on the type of intervention and duration of the program/intervention implementation. Therefore, because of this heterogeneity in reporting metrics, the pooled estimates could not be computed. Conclusion: Nutrition-sensitive livestock interventions showed a positive effect in increasing the consumption of ASFs, leading to improved dietary diversity. However, the quality of the evidence is low, and therefore, more randomized controlled studies with consistent and similar reporting metrics are needed to increase the evidence base on how nutrition-sensitive livestock interventions affect child growth outcomes.

United Against Rabies Forum: The first 2 years.

Rabies continues to kill an estimated 59,000 people annually, with up to 99% of human cases transmitted by domestic dogs. The elimination of human deaths from dog-mediated rabies is achievable by applying a One Health approach, and the framework to do this is outlined in Zero by 30: the Global Strategic Plan to end human deaths from dog-mediated rabies by 2030. To build on this global goal, and implement the approaches set out in Zero by 30, the United Against Rabies Forum was launched in 2020. This paper gives a review of the objectives, governance, activities and achievements of the United Against Rabies Forum to date. It also outlines ongoing work, and next steps as the United Against Rabies Forum reviews its first 2 years of activities and identifies priority areas for the coming 12 months.

Sero - epidemiology of brucellosis in people and their livestock: A linked human - animal cross-sectional study in a pastoralist community in Kenya.

Background: Brucellosis is associated with massive livestock production losses and human morbidity worldwide. Efforts to control brucellosis among pastoralist communities are limited by scarce data on the prevalence and risk factors for exposure despite the high human-animal interactions in these communities. This study simultaneously assessed the seroprevalence of brucellosis and associated factors of exposure among pastoralists and their livestock in same households. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional study in pastoralist communities in Marsabit County - Kenya. A total of 1,074 women and 225 children participated and provided blood samples. Blood was also drawn from 1,876 goats, 322 sheep and 189 camels. Blood samples were collected to be screened for the presence of anti-Brucella IgG antibodies using indirect IgG Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA) kits. Further, Individual, household and herd-level epidemiological information were captured using a structured questionnaire. Group differences were compared using the Pearson's Chi-square test, and p-values < 0.05 considered statistically significant. Generalized mixed-effects multivariable logistic human and animal models using administrative ward as the random effect was used to determine variables correlated to the outcome. Results: Household-level seropositivity was 12.7% (95% CI: 10.7-14.8). The individual human seroprevalence was 10.8% (9.1-12.6) with higher seroprevalence among women than children (12.4 vs. 3.1%, p < 0.001). Herd-level seroprevalence was 26.1% (23.7-28.7) and 19.2% (17.6-20.8) among individual animals. Goats had the highest seroprevalence 23.1% (21.2 - 25.1), followed by sheep 6.8% (4.3-10.2) and camels 1.1% (0.1-3.8). Goats and sheep had a higher risk of exposure OR = 3.8 (95% CI 2.4-6.7, p < 0.001) and 2.8 (1.2-5.6, p < 0.007), respectively relative to camels. Human and animal seroprevalence were significantly associated (OR = 1.8, [95%CI: 1.23-2.58], p = 0.002). Herd seroprevalence varied by household head education (OR = 2.45, [1.67-3.61, p < 0.001]) and herd size (1.01, [1.00-1.01], p < 0.001). Conclusions: The current study showed evidence that brucellosis is endemic in this pastoralist setting and there is a significant association between animal and human brucellosis seropositivity at household level representing a potential occupational risk. Public health sensitization and sustained human and animal brucellosis screening are required.

The potential for the double risk of rabies and antimicrobial resistance in a high rabies endemic setting: detection of antibiotic resistance in bacterial isolates from infected dog bite wounds in Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Post-exposure treatment for dog bites in humans aims at alleviating the risk of rabies and promoting wound healing. Wound healing may be complicated by bacteria. This study identified the different bacteria and their antibiotic susceptibilities in infected dog bite wounds (DBWs) in Uganda. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted among 376 dog bite patients. Wound swabs from patients with infected DBWs were collected and inoculated into recommended media. They were cultured for both aerobic and anaerobic bacteria. All isolated bacteria were identified based on colony characteristics, gram stain, and standard biochemical tests. Molecular identification was performed for strains that were resistant to three or more antibiotics. Antibiotic susceptibility testing was conducted using the disc diffusion method following the modified Kirby-Bauer method. The data were analysed using Stata version 15 software. RESULTS: Approximately half of the patients (52.9%, 199/376) presented with infected wounds. Majority of the swabs (84.4%, 168/199) were culture positive, and yielded a total of 768 isolates where about half (52.9%, 406/768) were gram positive bacteria, and about two-thirds (64.6%, 496/768) were recovered from category II wounds. Among the gram positive bacteria, 339 (83.5%) were aerobes where Staphylococcus aureus (103, 30.4%), Coagulase-negative staphylococci (68, 20.1%), and Corynebacterium spp (33, 9.7%) had the highest prevalence. For the 362 Gram negative isolates, 217 (59.9%) were aerobes and the commonest isolates were P. maltocida (64, 29.5%), Capnocytophaga canimorsus (36, 16.6%) and P. canis (26, 12.0%). Gram-positive isolates were resistant to metronidazole (93.6%), oxacillin (68.5%), ceftriaxone (14.6%) and amoxicillin/clavulanic acid (14.0%). Gram negative isolates were resistant to metronidazole (100%), ampicillin (30.7%), oxacillin (29.3%), and doxycycline (22.9%). Multidrug resistance was in 105 (29.0%) and 121/406 (29.8%) of the gram-negative and gram-positive isolates, respectively. All gram-positive isolates were susceptible to vancomycin and ciprofloxacin. CONCLUSIONS: Infection rates of DBWs in Uganda are high and the dominant bacterial isolates are Staphylococcus aureus, Pasteurella spps, and Capnocytophaga canimorsus. Multidrug resistance to commonly used antibiotics is high. The recommendation in the Uganda Clinical Guidelines to use metronidazole in the management of DBWs should be reviewed. DBWs should be enlisted for routine antimicrobial resistance surveillance and rational use of antimicrobial agents should be promoted.

Endemicity of Coxiella burnetii infection among people and their livestock in pastoral communities in northern Kenya.

Background: Coxiella burnetti can be transmitted to humans primarily through inhaling contaminated droplets released from infected animals or consumption of contaminated dairy products. Despite its zoonotic nature and the close association pastoralist communities have with their livestock, studies reporting simultaneous assessment of C. burnetti exposure and risk-factors among people and their livestock are scarce. Objective: This study therefore estimated the seroprevalence of Q-fever and associated risk factors of exposure in people and their livestock. Materials and methods: We conducted a cross-sectional study in pastoralist communities in Marsabit County in northern Kenya. A total of 1,074 women and 225 children were enrolled and provided blood samples for Q-fever testing. Additionally, 1,876 goats, 322 sheep and 189 camels from the same households were sampled. A structured questionnaire was administered to collect individual- and household/herd-level data. Indirect IgG ELISA kits were used to test the samples. Results: Household-level seropositivity was 13.2% [95% CI: 11.2-15.3]; differences in seropositivity levels among women and children were statistically insignificant (p = 0.8531). Lactating women had higher odds of exposure, odds ratio (OR) = 2.4 [1.3-5.3], while the odds of exposure among children increased with age OR = 1.1 [1.0-1.1]. Herd-level seroprevalence was 83.7% [81.7-85.6]. Seropositivity among goats was 74.7% [72.7-76.7], while that among sheep and camels was 56.8% [51.2-62.3] and 38.6% [31.6-45.9], respectively. Goats and sheep had a higher risk of exposure OR = 5.4 [3.7-7.3] and 2.6 [1.8-3.4], respectively relative to camels. There was no statistically significant association between Q-fever seropositivity and nutrition status in women, p = 0.900 and children, p = 1.000. We found no significant association between exposure in people and their livestock at household level (p = 0.724) despite high animal exposure levels, suggesting that Q-fever exposure in humans may be occurring at a scale larger than households. Conclusion: The one health approach used in this study revealed that Q-fever is endemic in this setting. Longitudinal studies of Q-fever burden and risk factors simultaneously assessed in human and animal populations as well as the socioeconomic impacts of the disease and further explore the role of environmental factors in Q-fever epidemiology are required. Such evidence may form the basis for designing Q-fever prevention and control strategies.

The COVID-19 pandemic and disruptions to essential health services in Kenya: a retrospective time-series analysis.

BACKGROUND: Public health emergencies can disrupt the provision of and access to essential health-care services, exacerbating health crises. We aimed to assess the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on essential health-care services in Kenya. METHODS: Using county-level data routinely collected from the health information system from health facilities across the country, we used a robust mixed-effect model to examine changes in 17 indicators of essential health services across four periods: the pre-pandemic period (from January, 2018 to February, 2020), two pandemic periods (from March to November 2020, and February to October, 2021), and the period during the COVID-19-associated health-care workers' strike (from December, 2020 to January, 2021). FINDINGS: In the pre-pandemic period, we observed a positive trend for multiple indicators. The onset of the pandemic was associated with statistically significant decreases in multiple indicators, including outpatient visits (28·7%; 95% CI 16·0-43·5%), cervical cancer screening (49·8%; 20·6-57·9%), number of HIV tests conducted (45·3%; 23·9-63·0%), patients tested for malaria (31·9%; 16·7-46·7%), number of notified tuberculosis cases (26·6%; 14·7-45·1%), hypertension cases (10·4%; 6·0-39·4%), vitamin A supplements (8·7%; 7·9-10·5%), and three doses of the diphtheria, tetanus toxoid, and pertussis vaccine administered (0·9%; 0·5-1·3%). Pneumonia cases reduced by 50·6% (31·3-67·3%), diarrhoea by 39·7% (24·8-62·7%), and children attending welfare clinics by 39·6% (23·5-47·1%). Cases of sexual violence increased by 8·0% (4·3-25·0%). Skilled deliveries, antenatal care, people with HIV infection newly started on antiretroviral therapy, confirmed cases of malaria, and diabetes cases detected were not significantly affected negatively. Although most of the health indicators began to recover during the pandemic, the health-care workers' strike resulted in nearly all indicators falling to numbers lower than those observed at the onset or during the pre-strike pandemic period. INTERPRETATION: The COVID-19 pandemic and the associated health-care workers' strike in Kenya have been associated with a substantial disruption of essential health services, with the use of outpatient visits, screening and diagnostic services, and child immunisation adversely affected. Efforts to maintain the provision of these essential health services during a health-care crisis should target the susceptible services to prevent the exacerbation of associated disease burdens during such health crises. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Infectious disease modelling for SARS-CoV-2 in Africa to guide policy: A systematic review.

Applied epidemiological models have played a critical role in understanding the transmission and control of disease outbreaks. Their utility and accuracy in decision-making on appropriate responses during public health emergencies is however a factor of their calibration to local data, evidence informing model assumptions, speed of obtaining and communicating their results, ease of understanding and willingness by policymakers to use their insights. We conducted a systematic review of infectious disease models focused on SARS-CoV-2 in Africa to determine: a) spatial and temporal patterns of SARS-CoV-2 modelling in Africa, b) use of local data to calibrate the models and local expertise in modelling activities, and c) key modelling questions and policy insights. We searched PubMed, Embase, Web of Science and MedRxiv databases following the PRISMA guidelines to obtain all SARS-CoV-2 dynamic modelling papers for one or multiple African countries. We extracted data on countries studied, authors and their affiliations, modelling questions addressed, type of models used, use of local data to calibrate the models, and model insights for guiding policy decisions. A total of 74 papers met the inclusion criteria, with nearly two-thirds of these coming from 6% (3) of the African countries. Initial papers were published 2 months after the first cases were reported in Africa, with most papers published after the first wave. More than half of all papers (53, 78%) and (48, 65%) had a first and last author affiliated to an African institution respectively, and only 12% (9) used local data for model calibration. A total of 60% (46) of the papers modelled assessment of control interventions. The transmission rate parameter was found to drive the most uncertainty in the sensitivity analysis for majority of the models. The use of dynamic models to draw policy insights was crucial and therefore there is need to increase modelling capacity in the continent.

United Against Rabies Forum: The One Health Concept at Work.

Human deaths from rabies are preventable and can be eliminated by applying a systematic One Health approach. However, this ancient disease still threatens the lives of millions of people in up to 150 countries and kills an estimated 59, 000 people every year. Rabies today is largely a disease of poverty, almost always linked to dog bites, with most deaths occurring in neglected communities in Africa and Asia. The disease places an immense economic burden on its victims, a cost that far outweighs the investment needed to control it. A global framework for rabies elimination in humans is set out in Zero by 30: The Global Strategic Plan to end human deaths from dog-mediated rabies by 2030. Despite the existence of proven control strategies and agreement on the path to eliminating human rabies deaths, mortality numbers from rabies remain high, and COVID-19 has set back efforts even further. But COVID-19 has also highlighted the value of a One Health approach to zoonotic disease and pandemic prevention. Rabies control programs offer a practical route to building One Health capacities that can also address other zoonotic threats, including those with pandemic potential. The United Against Rabies Forum aims to accelerate progress on rabies elimination while applying a One Health approach. The Forum promotes cross-sector collaboration among stakeholders and supports countries in their rabies elimination efforts. Increased political engagement and resource mobilization, both internationally and nationally, will be needed to achieve global rabies goals and can also make One Health implementation a reality.

Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of patients hospitalised with COVID-19 in Kenya: a multicentre cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To assess outcomes of patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 and to determine the predictors of mortality. SETTING: This study was conducted in six facilities, which included both government and privately run secondary and tertiary level facilities in the central and coastal regions of Kenya. PARTICIPANTS: We enrolled 787 reverse transcriptase-PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV2-infected persons. Patients whose records could not be accessed were excluded. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was COVID-19-related death. We used Cox proportional hazards regressions to determine factors related to in-hospital mortality. RESULTS: Data from patients with 787 COVID-19 were available. The median age was 43 years (IQR 30-53), with 505 (64%) being men. At admission, 455 (58%) were symptomatic with an additional 63 (9%) developing clinical symptoms during hospitalisation. The most common symptoms were cough (337, 43%), loss of taste or smell (279, 35%) and fever (126, 16%). Comorbidities were reported in 340 (43%), with cardiovascular disease, diabetes and HIV documented in 130 (17%), 116 (15%), 53 (7%), respectively. 90 (11%) were admitted to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) for a mean of 11 days, 52 (7%) were ventilated with a mean of 10 days, 107 (14%) died. The risk of death increased with age (HR 1.57 (95% CI 1.13 to 2.19)) for persons >60 years compared with those <60 years old; having comorbidities (HR 2.34 (1.68 to 3.25)) and among men (HR 1.76 (1.27 to 2.44)) compared with women. Elevated white cell count and aspartate aminotransferase were associated with higher risk of death. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of death from COVID-19 is high among older patients, those with comorbidities and among men. Clinical parameters including patient clinical signs, haematology and liver function tests were associated with risk of death and may guide stratification of high-risk patients.

Rabies Elimination in Rural Kenya: Need for Improved Availability of Human Vaccines, Awareness and Knowledge on Rabies and Its Management Among Healthcare Workers.

Background: In Africa, rabies causes an estimated 24,000 human deaths annually. Mass dog vaccinations coupled with timely post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) for dog-bite patients are the main interventions to eliminate human rabies deaths. A well-informed healthcare workforce and the availability and accessibility of rabies biologicals at health facilities are critical in reducing rabies deaths. We assessed awareness and knowledge regarding rabies and the management of rabies among healthcare workers, and PEP availability in rural eastern Kenya. Methodology: We interviewed 73 healthcare workers from 42 healthcare units in 13 wards in Makueni and Kibwezi West sub-counties, Makueni County, Kenya in November 2018. Data on demographics, years of work experience, knowledge of rabies, management of bite and rabies patients, and availability of rabies biologicals were collected and analyzed. Results: Rabies PEP vaccines were available in only 5 (12%) of 42 health facilities. None of the health facilities had rabies immunoglobulins in stock at the time of the study. PEP was primarily administered intramuscularly, with only 11% (n = 8) of the healthcare workers and 17% (7/42) healthcare facilities aware of the dose-sparing intradermal route. Less than a quarter of the healthcare workers were aware of the World Health Organization categorization of bite wounds that guides the use of PEP. Eighteen percent (n = 13) of healthcare workers reported they would administer PEP for category I exposures even though PEP is not recommended for this category of exposure. Only one of six respondents with acute encephalitis consultation considered rabies as a differential diagnosis highlighting the low index of suspicion for rabies. Conclusion: The availability and use of PEP for rabies was sub-optimal. We identified two urgent needs to support rabies elimination programmes: improving availability and access to PEP; and targeted training of the healthcare workers to improve awareness on bite wound management, judicious use of PEP including appropriate risk assessment following bites and the use of the dose-sparing intradermal route in facilities seeing multiple bite patients. Global and domestic funding plan that address these gaps in the human health sector is needed for efficient rabies elimination in Africa.

Impact of traffic congestion on spatial access to healthcare services in Nairobi.

Background: Geographic accessibility is an important determinant of healthcare utilization and is critical for achievement of universal health coverage. Despite the high disease burden and severe traffic congestion in many African cities, few studies have assessed how traffic congestion impacts geographical access to healthcare facilities and to health professionals in these settings. In this study, we assessed the impact of traffic congestion on access to healthcare facilities, and to the healthcare professionals across the healthcare facilities. Methods: Using data on health facilities obtained from the Ministry of Health in Kenya, we mapped 944 primary, 94 secondary and four tertiary healthcare facilities in Nairobi County. We then used traffic probe data to identify areas within a 15-, 30- and 45-min drive from each health facility during peak and off-peak hours and calculated the proportion of the population with access to healthcare in the County. We employed a 2-step floating catchment area model to calculate the ratio of healthcare and healthcare professionals to population during these times. Results: During peak hours, <70% of Nairobi's 4.1 million population was within a 30-min drive from a health facility. This increased to >75% during off-peak hours. In 45 min, the majority of the population had an accessibility index of one health facility accessible to more than 100 people (<0.01) for primary health care facilities, one to 10,000 people for secondary facilities, and two health facilities per 100,000 people for tertiary health facilities. Of people with access to health facilities, a sub-optimal ratio of <4.45 healthcare professionals per 1,000 people was observed in facilities offering primary and secondary healthcare during peak and off-peak hours. Conclusion: Our study shows access to healthcare being negatively impacted by traffic congestion, highlighting the need for multisectoral collaborations between urban planners, health sector and policymakers to optimize health access for the city residents. Additionally, growing availability of traffic probe data in African cities should enable similar analysis and understanding of healthcare access for city residents in other countries on the continent.