Optimal Cut-Point Selection Methods Under Binary Classification When Subclasses Are Involved.

In practice, we often encounter binary classification problems where both main classes consist of multiple subclasses. For example, in an ovarian cancer study where biomarkers were evaluated for their accuracy of distinguishing noncancer cases from cancer cases, the noncancer class consists of healthy subjects and benign cases, while the cancer class consists of subjects at both early and late stages. This article aims to provide a large number of optimal cut-point selection methods for such setting. Furthermore, we also study confidence interval estimation of the optimal cut-points. Simulation studies are carried out to explore the performance of the proposed cut-point selection methods as well as confidence interval estimation methods. A real ovarian cancer data set is analyzed using the proposed methods.

Improving Aerobic Digestion of Food Waste by Adding a Personalized Microbial Inoculum.

In the context of China's garbage classification policy, on-site aerobic food waste (FW) digestion is crucial for reducing transportation and disposal costs. The efficiency of this process is largely determined by the microbial community structure and its functions. Therefore, this study aimed to analyze the impact of a personalized microbial consortium (MCM) on the efficiency of aerobic FW digestion and to reveal the underlying mechanisms. An MCM, sourced from naturally degrading FW, was selected to enrich degrading bacteria with relatively high hydrolyzing ability. The functionality of the MCM was evaluated by tracing the successions of microbial communities, and comparing the differences in the forms of organic compounds, metabolic functions, and hydrolase activities. X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy demonstrated that the MCM metabolized faster, and produced more acidic metabolites. Metagenomic analysis indicated that FW inoculated with the personalized MCM increased abundance of Bacillaceae producing hydrolysis enzymes and promoted glycolysis metabolic pathways, enhancing energy generation for metabolism, compared to the commercial effective bacterial agent. This paper provides both theoretical and practical evidence for the improvement of biochemical processor of FW with the personalized MCM, which has promising application prospects and economic value.

Curcumin attenuates lupus nephritis by inhibiting neutrophil migration via PI3K/AKT/NF-κB signalling pathway.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the role of curcumin in the treatment of lupus nephritis (LN) by inhibiting the migration of neutrophils and the underlying mechanism involved. METHODS: Two lupus mouse models, MRL/lpr mice and R848-treated mice, were treated with 50 mg/kg curcumin by intraperitoneal injection. H&E and Masson staining were used to estimate histopathological changes in the kidney. Immunofluorescence was used to assess the deposition of immune complexes. The expression of inflammatory factors was detected by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and real-time reverse transcription polymerase reaction (RT-PCR), and the protein expression was detected by western blotting. RESULTS: We revealed the remarkable potential of curcumin in improving inflammatory conditions in both MRL/lpr mice and R848-induced lupus mice. Curcumin effectively decelerates the progression of inflammation and diminishes the infiltration of neutrophils and their release of pivotal inflammatory factors, thereby reducing inflammation in renal tissues. Mechanistically, curcumin significantly inhibits the expression of p-PI3K, p-AKT and p-NF-κB, which are upregulated by interleukin-8 to induce neutrophil migration and renal inflammation, thereby reducing neutrophil migration and the release of inflammatory factors. CONCLUSION: Curcumin significantly inhibits the recruitment of neutrophils and the release of proinflammatory factors in the kidney by inhibiting the PI3K/AKT/NF-κB signalling pathway, providing new therapeutic targets and medication strategies for the treatment of LN.

Ovarian function in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus: Pathogenesis, drug application and prospective therapies.

Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is a chronic autoimmune disease in which multiple organs are damaged that prevails in fertile women. Currently, glucocorticoids and immunosuppressants are widely used to treat SLE patients. However, ovarian dysfunction occurs following the use of these drugs in women with SLE. Here, we summarize recent progress in terms of understanding ovarian injury, the effects of drug application and strategies to improve ovarian function in women with SLE. This review could be helpful to precisely cure SLE in women desiring to have offspring.

Optimization of immunosuppression strategies for the establishment of chronic hepatitis E virus infection in rabbits.

Chronic hepatitis E mostly occurs in organ transplant recipients and can lead to rapid liver fibrosis and cirrhosis. Previous studies found that the development of chronic hepatitis E virus (HEV) infection is linked to the type of immunosuppressant used. Animal models are crucial for the study of pathogenesis of chronic hepatitis E. We previously established a stable chronic HEV infection rabbit model using cyclosporine A (CsA), a calcineurin inhibitor (CNI)-based immunosuppressant. However, the immunosuppression strategy and timing may be optimized, and how different types of immunosuppressants affect the establishment of chronic HEV infection in this model is still unknown. Here, we showed that chronic HEV infection can be established in 100% of rabbits when CsA treatment was started at HEV challenge or even 4 weeks after. Tacrolimus or prednisolone treatment alone also contributed to chronic HEV infection, resulting in 100% and 77.8% chronicity rates, respectively, while mycophenolate mofetil (MMF) only led to a 28.6% chronicity rate. Chronic HEV infection was accompanied with a persistent activation of innate immune response evidenced by transcriptome analysis. The suppressed adaptive immune response evidenced by low expression of genes related to cytotoxicity (like perforin and FasL) and low anti-HEV seroconversion rates may play important roles in causing chronic HEV infection. By analyzing HEV antigen concentrations with different infection outcomes, we also found that HEV antigen levels could indicate chronic HEV infection development. This study optimized the immunosuppression strategies for establishing chronic HEV infection in rabbits and highlighted the potential association between the development of chronic HEV infection and immunosuppressants.IMPORTANCEOrgan transplant recipients are at high risk of chronic hepatitis E and generally receive a CNI-based immunosuppression regimen containing CNI (tacrolimus or CsA), MMF, and/or corticosteroids. Previously, we established stable chronic HEV infection in a rabbit model by using CsA before HEV challenge. In this study, we further optimized the immunosuppression strategies for establishing chronic HEV infection in rabbits. Chronic HEV infection can also be established when CsA treatment was started at the same time or even 4 weeks after HEV challenge, clearly indicating the risk of progression to chronic infection under these circumstances and the necessity of HEV screening for both the recipient and the donor preoperatively. CsA, tacrolimus, or prednisolone instead of MMF significantly contributed to chronic HEV infection. HEV antigen in acute infection phase indicates the development of chronic infection. Our results have important implications for understanding the potential association between chronic HEV infection and immunosuppressants.

A longitudinal study of the relationships among competency-based teasing, positivity, and depressive symptoms in Chinese children: Highlighting gender differences.

Competency-based teasing has been identified as a risk factor for children's depressive symptoms. However, the specific psychological mechanisms mediating this relationship are not well understood, especially in the context of Chinese culture. This study examined the relationship between competency-based teasing, subsequent depressive symptoms, and the possible mediating role of positivity in Chinese children by using parallel process latent growth curve modelling. Gender differences were also explored. A sample of 4376 Chinese children (55.1% boys; age: M = 9.98 years, SD = 0.88) completed measurements of the relevant constructs on five occasions across 2 years, using half-year intervals. The findings revealed that competency-based teasing was significantly positively associated with subsequent depressive symptoms in Chinese children. Furthermore, positivity mediated this relationship in girls, but not in boys. The results suggest that positivity-cultivating and gender-specific interventions may be effective to reduce the risk of depressive symptoms in Chinese children.

Longitudinal associations among basic psychological need satisfaction at school, self-esteem, and suicidal ideation from middle childhood to early adolescence: Disentangling between­ and within­person associations.

INTRODUCTION: The current study aimed to examine the longitudinal associations among basic psychological need satisfaction at school (BPNSS), self-esteem, and suicidal ideation (SI), including whether self-esteem functioned as a mediator of the relations between BPNSS and SI at the within-person level after disentangling between- and within-person associations encompassing middle childhood to early adolescence. METHODS: A total of 650 Chinese students (53.54% boys, Mage = 9.95, SD = 0.75 at Time 1) completed measures on four occasions across 1.5 years, using 6-month intervals. Random intercept cross-lagged panel models were applied to disaggregate between- and within-person effects, thus providing greater confidence in elucidating the causal relations among study variables. RESULTS: The results showed that at the within-person level: (a) BPNSS negatively predicted SI; (b) BPNSS positively predicted self-esteem; (c) Self-esteem negatively predicted SI; and (d) BPNSS indirectly predicted SI via self-esteem. CONCLUSION: These findings advanced the literature by demonstrating longitudinal associations among BPNSS, self-esteem, and SI at the within-person level, and highlighting the significance of distinguishing between- and within-person effects in developing prevention and intervention programs aimed at reducing SI over time from middle childhood to early adolescence.

Psychological maltreatment by teachers and peer victimization in Chinese youth: Depression and aggression as mediators.

BACKGROUND: Psychological maltreatment by teachers and peer victimization are significant public health issues among youth. However, few studies have verified transactional associations between psychological maltreatment by teachers and peer victimization at the within-person level and the mediating roles of depression and aggression have yet to be fully evaluated. OBJECTIVE: This study examined the transactional associations between psychological maltreatment by teachers and peer victimization from middle childhood to early adolescence, separating within- and between-person variation. The study also examined whether youth's depression and aggression mediated the associations. PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING: A total of 4945 Chinese youth (Mage = 9.92 years, SD = 0.73 53 % boys) completed a packet of measures on five occasions at 6-month intervals from May of 2017 to May of 2019. METHODS: Random Intercept Cross-Lagged Panel Models (RI-CLPMs) were used to distinguish between- and within-person effects. RESULTS: The results indicated that: (a) Psychological maltreatment by teachers predicted peer victimization, and vice versa; (b) Depression (but not aggression) mediated the associations from peer victimization to psychological maltreatment by teachers. CONCLUSIONS: The findings supported bidirectional spillover effects between adverse teacher-student and peer interactions and demonstrated at the within-person level that such effects were transmitted indirectly via youth's depression.

Rapid and highly sensitive colorimetric LAMP assay and integrated device for visual detection of monkeypox virus.

BACKGROUND: The monkeypox virus (MPXV) is a linear double-stranded DNA virus with a large genome that causes tens of thousands of infections and hundreds of deaths in at least 40 countries and regions worldwide. Therefore, timely and accurate diagnostic testing could be an important measure to prevent the ongoing spread of MPXV and widespread epidemics. RESULTS: Here, we designed multiple sets of primers for the target region of MPXV for loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) detection and identified the optimal primer set. Then, the specificity in fluorescent LAMP detection was verified using the plasmids containing the target gene, pseudovirus and other DNA/RNA viruses. We also evaluated the sensitivity of the colorimetric LAMP detection system using the plasmid and pseudovirus samples, respectively. Besides, we used monkeypox pseudovirus to simulate real samples for detection. Subsequent to the establishment and introduction of a magnetic beads (MBs)-based nucleic acid extraction technique, an integrated device was developed, characterized by rapidity, high sensitivity, and remarkable specificity. This portable system demonstrated a visual detection limit of 137 copies/mL, achieving sample-to-answer detection within 1 h. SIGNIFICANCE: The device has the advantages of integration, simplicity, miniaturization, and visualization, which help promote the realization of accurate, rapid, portable, and low-cost testing. Meanwhile, this platform could facilitate efficient, cost-effective and easy-operable point-of-care testing (POCT) in diverse resource-limited settings in addition to the laboratory.

Development and Validation of a Nomogram of Persistent Pulmonary Hypertension in Adult Pretricuspid Shunts After Correction.

BACKGROUND: Pretricuspid shunts have been associated with poorer survival rates in patients with Eisenmenger syndrome compared with postricuspid shunts and complex lesions. However, the risk stratification for persistent pulmonary hypertension (PH) in this population remains uncertain. METHODS AND RESULTS: We retrospectively enrolled 103 patients with pretricuspid shunts with high total pulmonary resistance >4.5 Wood units (estimated pulmonary vascular resistance ≥3 Wood units). During a mean±SD follow-up of 20.95±24.84 months, 32 patients developed postoperative persistent PH after shunt correction. We identified 3 significant predictors of postoperative persistent PH, including mean pulmonary artery pressure after inhaled oxygen ≥40.5 mm Hg (odds ratio [OR], 7.78 [95% CI, 2.02-30.03]; P<0.01), total pulmonary resistance after inhaled oxygen ≥6.5 Wood units (estimated pulmonary vascular resistance ≥5 Wood units; OR, 12.23 [95% CI, 2.12-70.46]; P<0.01), and artery oxygen saturation at rest <95% (OR, 3.34 [95% CI, 1.07-10.44]; P=0.04). We established the prediction model with the C-statistics of 0.85 (95% CI, 0.77-0.93; P<0.01), and the C-statistic was 0.83 (95% CI, 0.80-0.86) after bootstrapping 10 000 times with a good performance of the nomogram calibration curve for predicting persistent PH. CONCLUSIONS: Our study presents a multivariable risk stratification model for persistent PH after shunt correction in adults with pretricuspid shunts. This model, based on 3 hemodynamic predictors after inhaled oxygen, may assist in identifying individuals at higher risk of persistent PH after shunt correction.

Range-Wide Phylogeography and Ecological Niche Modeling Provide Insights into the Evolutionary History of the Mongolian Racerunner (Eremias argus) in Northeast Asia.

The Mongolian racerunner, Eremias argus, is a small lizard endemic to Northeast Asia that can serve as an excellent model for investigating how geography and past climate change have jointly influenced the evolution of biodiversity in this region. To elucidate the processes underlying its diversification and demography, we reconstructed the range-wide phylogeographic pattern and evolutionary trajectory, using phylogenetic, population genetic, landscape genetic, Bayesian phylogeographic reconstruction and ecological niche modeling approaches. Phylogenetic analyses of the mtDNA cyt b gene revealed eight lineages that were unbounded by geographic region. The genetic structure of E. argus was mainly determined by geographic distance. Divergence dating indicated that E. argus and E. brenchleyi diverged during the Mid-Pliocene Warm Period. E. argus was estimated to have coalesced at~0.4351 Ma (Marine Isotope Stage 19). Bayesian phylogeographic diffusion analysis revealed out-of-Inner Mongolia and rapid colonization events from the end of the Last Interglacial to the Last Glacial Maximum, which is consistent with the expanded suitable range of the Last Glacial Maximum. Pre-Last Glacial Maximum growth of population is presented for most lineages of E. argus. The Glacial Maximum contraction model and the previous multiple glacial refugia hypotheses are rejected. This may be due to an increase in the amount of climatically favorable habitats in Northeast Asia. Furthermore, E. argus barbouri most likely represents an invalid taxon. The present study is the first to report a range-wide phylogeography of reptiles over such a large region in Northeast Asia. Our results make a significant contribution towards understanding the biogeography of the entire Northeast Asia.

Comparison of targeted next-generation sequencing and the Xpert MTB/RIF assay for detection of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in clinical isolates and sputum specimens.

Targeted next-generation sequencing (tNGS) can be used to perform Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) complex-specific amplification or target capture directly from sputum samples, yielding simultaneous coverage of many genes and DNA regions associated with antimicrobial resistance (AMR). Performance comparisons of tNGS and another molecular testing tool, Xpert MTB/rifampicin (RIF), have been empirical. Here, using a dilution series of a RIF-resistant clinical isolate of MTB, we found that tNGS had a slightly lower limit of bacterial detection (102 CFU/mL) compared with Xpert MTB/RIF (103 CFU/mL) in culture medium. However, the minimum detection limit of the rpoB S450L mutation in this isolate was significantly lower with tNGS (102 CFU/mL) than with Xpert MTB/RIF (106 CFU/mL). Sputum samples collected from 129 suspected pulmonary tuberculosis patients were also prospectively studied with the clinical diagnosis as a reference, revealing that the sensitivity of tNGS (48.6%) was higher than those of culture (46.8%), Xpert MTB/RIF (39.4%), and smear microscopy (34.9%) testing. Notably, AMR analysis of 56 MTB-positive samples as determined by tNGS revealed high mutation frequencies of 96.4%, 35.7%, 26.8%, and 19.6% in the following AMR-associated genes: rrs, rpoB, katG, and pncA, respectively. The findings of this study provide theoretical support for the differential clinical application of tNGS and Xpert MTB/RIF and suggest that tNGS has greater application value in tuberculosis drug resistance monitoring and prevention.IMPORTANCETargeted next-generation sequencing (tNGS) can be used to perform Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) complex-specific amplification or target capture directly from sputum samples, yielding simultaneous coverage of genes and DNA regions associated with antimicrobial resistance (AMR). Performance comparisons of tNGS and Xpert MTB/rifampicin (RIF) have been empirical. The Xpert MTB/RIF assay is a commercial system that uses the nucleic acid amplification detection method for rapid (2 hours) diagnosis of tuberculosis (TB). The cost of the tNGS and Xpert MTB/RIF assays in this study was similar, at USD 98 and USD 70-104 per sample, respectively, but the time required for tNGS (3 days) was much longer than that required for the Xpert MTB/RIF assay. However, tNGS yielded more accurate results and a larger number of AMR-associated gene mutations, which compensated for the extra time and highlighted the greater application value of tNGS in TB drug resistance monitoring and prevention.

Longitudinal associations between childhood victimization and neuroticism from middle childhood to early adolescence.

BACKGROUND: Previous cross-sectional and unidirectional longitudinal studies have identified positive associations between childhood victimization and neuroticism in children. However, these studies have not simultaneously examined multiple common sources of childhood victimization (family abuse, teacher abuse, and peer victimization) in relation to neuroticism nor have they distinguished between- and within-person effects. Moreover, the moderating role of child sex in their associations has yet to be fully evaluated. OBJECTIVE: This study examined the within-person longitudinal associations between three common sources of childhood victimization and neuroticism in Chinese children and whether these effects differed between boys and girls. PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING: The sample included 4315 children (55.1 % boys) with an average age of 9.93 (SD = 0.73) years from a large city in China. METHODS: Participants completed self-report measures on five occasions across two years, employing six-month intervals. Random Intercept Cross-Lagged Panel Models (RI-CLPMs) were used to distinguish between-person and within-person effects. RESULTS: Results included: (a) Family abuse (excluding sexual abuse) and peer victimization directly predicted subsequent increases in neuroticism at the within-person level and vice versa, whereas teacher abuse and neuroticism did not reveal significant longitudinal relations at the within-person level; (b) The effect of family abuse on neuroticism at the within-person level was stronger in boys, while the effect of peer victimization on neuroticism at the within-person level was stronger in girls. CONCLUSIONS: Prevention and intervention strategies targeting high neuroticism and childhood victimization should consider the roles of both family and peer systems.

Understanding the Tail Current Behavior of Electroactive Biofilms Realizes the Rapid Measurement of Biochemical Oxygen Demand.

The use of microbial electrochemical sensors, with electroactive biofilms (EABs) as sensing elements, is a promising strategy to timely measure the biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) of wastewater. However, accumulation of Coulombic yield over a complete degradation cycle is time-consuming. Therefore, understanding the correlation between current output and EAB metabolism is urgently needed. Here, we recognized a tail stage (TS) on a current-time curve according to current increase rate─a period with the least electron harvesting efficiency. EAB adopted a series of metabolic compensation strategies, including slow metabolism of residual BOD, suspended growth, reduced cell activity, and consumption of carbon storage polymers, to cope with substrate deficiency in TS. The supplementary electrons provided by the decomposition of glycogen and fatty acid polymers increased the Coulombic efficiencies of TS to >100%. The tail current produced by spontaneous metabolic compensation showed a trend of convergent exponential decay, independent of BOD concentration. Therefore, we proposed the TS prediction model (TSPM) to predict Coulombic yield, which shortened BOD measurement time by 96% (to ∼0.5 h) with deviation <4 mg/L when using real domestic wastewater. Our findings on current output in TS give insights into bacterial substrate storage and consumption, as well as regulation in substrate-deficient environment, and provide a basis for developing BOD sensors.

IGF2BP3 loss inhibits cell progression by upregulating has_circRNA_103820, and hsa_circRNA_103820-encoded peptide inhibits cell progression by inactivating the AKT pathway in lung cancer.

N6-methyladenosine (m6A) modification and m6A-related RNA-binding proteins (RBPs) play vital roles in various aspects of circRNA metabolism. Hsa_circRNA_103820 is implicated in the pathogenesis of multiple cancers, including lung cancer (LC). Moreover, bioinformatics analysis has suggested that hsa_circRNA_103820 possesses potential peptide-coding ability. Thus, we aimed to investigate the function and peptide-coding potential of hsa_circRNA_103820 in this study. Cell viability, apoptosis rate, and migratory and invasive abilities were assessed using CCK-8, flow cytometry, and transwell assays, respectively. Hsa_circRNA_103820 level was measured using RT-qPCR assay, and the interaction between hsa_circRNA_103820 and IGF2BP3 was examined through RIP and RT-qPCR assays. The coding ability of hsa_circRNA_103820 and protein levels were determined through western blot assay. The results showed that hsa_circRNA_103820 reduced cell viability, attenuated cell migratory and invasive abilities, and promoted cell apoptosis in LC. IGF2BP3 negatively regulated hsa_circRNA_103820 expression and interacted with it. Hsa_circRNA_103820 knockdown alleviated si-IGF2BP3-mediated anti-viability, anti-migration, anti-invasion, and pro-apoptosis effects in LC cells. Moreover, a 188-amino acid (aa) peptide encoded by hsa_circRNA_103820 decreased cell viability, facilitated cell apoptosis, and inhibited cell migration and invasion in LC. Collectively, hsa_circRNA_103820, regulated by IGF2BP3, encodes a 188-aa peptide and inhibits the malignant progression of LC cells by inhibiting the AKT pathway.

Prediction of suicidal ideation among preadolescent children with machine learning models: A longitudinal study.

BACKGROUND: Machine learning (ML) has been widely used to predict suicidal ideation (SI) in adolescents and adults. Nevertheless, studies of accurate and efficient models of SI prediction with preadolescent children are still needed because SI is surprisingly prevalent during the transition into adolescence. This study aimed to explore the potential of ML models to predict SI among preadolescent children. METHODS: A total of 4691 Chinese children (54.89 % boys, Mage = 10.92 at baseline) and their parents completed relevant measures at baseline and the children provided 6-month follow-up data for SI. The current study compared four ML models: Random Forest (RF), Decision Tree (DT), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), to predict SI and to identify variables with predictive value based on the best-performing model among Chinese preadolescent children. RESULTS: The RF model achieved the highest discriminant performance with an AUC of 0.92, accuracy of 0.93 (balanced accuracy = 0.88). The factors of internalizing problems, externalizing problems, neuroticism, childhood maltreatment, and subjective well-being in school demonstrated the highest values in predicting SI. CONCLUSION: The findings of this study suggested that ML models based on the observation and assessment of children's general characteristics and experiences in everyday life can serve as convenient screening and evaluation tools for suicide risk assessment among Chinese preadolescent children. The findings also provide insights for early intervention.

Impact of cash transfers on the association between prenatal exposures to high temperatures and low birthweight: Retrospective analysis from the LEAP 1000 study.

OBJECTIVE: To explore the associations between prenatal temperature exposures and low birthweight (LBW) and modification by cash transfer (CT) receipt. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Five rural districts in Northern Ghana. POPULATION OR SAMPLE: A total of 3016 infants born to women interviewed as part of the Livelihood Empowerment Against Poverty (LEAP 1000) impact evaluation between 2015 and 2017. METHODS: Birthweight was collected using household surveys administered to LEAP 1000 eligible women. We used a UNICEF-developed multiple imputation approach to address missingness of birthweight and applied an empirical heaping correction to the multiply imputed birthweight data. Survey data were linked to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis 5-hourly temperature averaged to weeks for 2011-2017 using community centroids. Using distributed-lag nonlinear models, we explored the lag-specific associations between weekly average temperatures greater than 30°C and LBW, and stratified by LEAP 1000 treatment. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Low birthweight (<2.5 kg). RESULTS: Twelve percent (n = 365) of infants were LBW; the mean ± SD birthweight was 3.02 ± 0.37 kg. Overall, increasing temperatures were associated with increased odds of LBW, with the greatest odds observed in the 3 weeks before birth (odds ratio 1.005-1.025). These positive associations were even larger among comparison infants and null among treatment infants. CONCLUSIONS: Our study found increased odds of LBW with high weekly average temperatures throughout pregnancy and the preconception period and demonstrate mitigated effects by the LEAP 1000 CT program. More evidence on the potential of CTs to serve as adaptation interventions in low- and middle-income countries is needed to protect pregnant persons and their infants from the impacts of climate change.

Genetic Structure and Population History of the Zaisan Toad-Headed Agama (Phrynocephalus melanurus) Inferred from Mitochondrial DNA.

The agamid lizard Phrynocephalus melanurus is restricted to Northwest China (Dzungar Basin) and the adjacent Eastern Kazakhstan (Zaisan and Alakol basins). To elucidate the phylogeography of P. melanurus, we obtained the mitochondrial DNA COI segments of 175 sampled lizards from 44 localities across the whole distribution. Phylogenetic analyses revealed two main Clades comprising five geographically structured lineages (I, IIa, IIb1, IIb2, and IIb3) that fit an isolation-by-distance (IBD) model. The divergence from the most recent common ancestor was dated to ~1.87 million years ago (Ma). Demographic analyses demonstrated lineage-specific response to past climate change: stable population for Clade I, Subclade IIb1; past population expansion for IIb3 since 0.18 Ma, respectively. Bayesian phylogeographic diffusion analyses detected initial spreading at the Saur Mount vicinity, approximately 1.8 Ma. Historical species distribution model (SDM) projected expansion of the suitable habitat in the last interglacial and shift and contraction in the last glacial maximum and Holocene epochs. The SDM predicted a drastic reduction in suitable area throughout the range as a response to future climate change. Our findings suggest that the evolution of P. melanurus followed a parapatric divergence with subsequent dispersal and adaptation to cold and dry environments during the Quaternary. Overall, this work improves our understanding of the lineage diversification and population dynamics of P. melanurus, providing further insights into the evolutionary processes that occurred in Northwest China and adjacent Eastern Kazakhstan.

Co-developmental trajectories of aggression and rule-breaking from middle childhood to early adolescence: individual and environmental predictors.

This study examined the heterogeneous co-developmental trajectories of aggression and rule-breaking from middle childhood to early adolescence, as well as how these identified, distinct trajectories related to individual and environmental predictors. A total of 1944 Chinese elementary school students in grade 4 (45.5% girls, Mage = 10.06, SD = 0.57) completed measures on five occasions across two and a half years, using six-month intervals. Findings included: (a) Parallel process latent class growth modeling revealed four distinct co-developmental trajectory groups of aggression and rule-breaking: congruent-low (84.0%); moderate-decreasing aggression and high-decreasing rule-breaking (3.8%); moderate-increasing aggression (5.9%); and moderate-increasing rule-breaking (6.3%); (b) Multivariate logistic regression analyses revealed that children belonging to the high risk groups were more likely to experience multiple individual and environmental difficulties. Implications for prevention of aggression and rule-breaking were discussed.