Molecular classification and biomarkers of clinical outcome in breast ductal carcinoma in situ: Analysis of TBCRC 038 and RAHBT cohorts.

Ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) is the most common precursor of invasive breast cancer (IBC), with variable propensity for progression. We perform multiscale, integrated molecular profiling of DCIS with clinical outcomes by analyzing 774 DCIS samples from 542 patients with 7.3 years median follow-up from the Translational Breast Cancer Research Consortium 038 study and the Resource of Archival Breast Tissue cohorts. We identify 812 genes associated with ipsilateral recurrence within 5 years from treatment and develop a classifier that predicts DCIS or IBC recurrence in both cohorts. Pathways associated with recurrence include proliferation, immune response, and metabolism. Distinct stromal expression patterns and immune cell compositions are identified. Our multiscale approach employed in situ methods to generate a spatially resolved atlas of breast precancers, where complementary modalities can be directly compared and correlated with conventional pathology findings, disease states, and clinical outcome.

Polygenic risk modeling with latent trait-related genetic components.

Polygenic risk models have led to significant advances in understanding complex diseases and their clinical presentation. While polygenic risk scores (PRS) can effectively predict outcomes, they do not generally account for disease subtypes or pathways which underlie within-trait diversity. Here, we introduce a latent factor model of genetic risk based on components from Decomposition of Genetic Associations (DeGAs), which we call the DeGAs polygenic risk score (dPRS). We compute DeGAs using genetic associations for 977 traits and find that dPRS performs comparably to standard PRS while offering greater interpretability. We show how to decompose an individual's genetic risk for a trait across DeGAs components, with examples for body mass index (BMI) and myocardial infarction (heart attack) in 337,151 white British individuals in the UK Biobank, with replication in a further set of 25,486 non-British white individuals. We find that BMI polygenic risk factorizes into components related to fat-free mass, fat mass, and overall health indicators like physical activity. Most individuals with high dPRS for BMI have strong contributions from both a fat-mass component and a fat-free mass component, whereas a few "outlier" individuals have strong contributions from only one of the two components. Overall, our method enables fine-scale interpretation of the drivers of genetic risk for complex traits.

Results from the second year of a collaborative effort to forecast influenza seasons in the United States.

Accurate forecasts could enable more informed public health decisions. Since 2013, CDC has worked with external researchers to improve influenza forecasts by coordinating seasonal challenges for the United States and the 10 Health and Human Service Regions. Forecasted targets for the 2014-15 challenge were the onset week, peak week, and peak intensity of the season and the weekly percent of outpatient visits due to influenza-like illness (ILI) 1-4 weeks in advance. We used a logarithmic scoring rule to score the weekly forecasts, averaged the scores over an evaluation period, and then exponentiated the resulting logarithmic score. Poor forecasts had a score near 0, and perfect forecasts a score of 1. Five teams submitted forecasts from seven different models. At the national level, the team scores for onset week ranged from <0.01 to 0.41, peak week ranged from 0.08 to 0.49, and peak intensity ranged from <0.01 to 0.17. The scores for predictions of ILI 1-4 weeks in advance ranged from 0.02-0.38 and was highest 1 week ahead. Forecast skill varied by HHS region. Forecasts can predict epidemic characteristics that inform public health actions. CDC, state and local health officials, and researchers are working together to improve forecasts.

A proteomic clock of human pregnancy.

BACKGROUND: Early detection of maladaptive processes underlying pregnancy-related pathologies is desirable because it will enable targeted interventions ahead of clinical manifestations. The quantitative analysis of plasma proteins features prominently among molecular approaches used to detect deviations from normal pregnancy. However, derivation of proteomic signatures sufficiently predictive of pregnancy-related outcomes has been challenging. An important obstacle hindering such efforts were limitations in assay technology, which prevented the broad examination of the plasma proteome. OBJECTIVE: The recent availability of a highly multiplexed platform affording the simultaneous measurement of 1310 plasma proteins opens the door for a more explorative approach. The major aim of this study was to examine whether analysis of plasma collected during gestation of term pregnancy would allow identifying a set of proteins that tightly track gestational age. Establishing precisely timed plasma proteomic changes during term pregnancy is a critical step in identifying deviations from regular patterns caused by fetal and maternal maladaptations. A second aim was to gain insight into functional attributes of identified proteins and link such attributes to relevant immunological changes. STUDY DESIGN: Pregnant women participated in this longitudinal study. In 2 subsequent sets of 21 (training cohort) and 10 (validation cohort) women, specific blood specimens were collected during the first (7-14 weeks), second (15-20 weeks), and third (24-32 weeks) trimesters and 6 weeks postpartum for analysis with a highly multiplexed aptamer-based platform. An elastic net algorithm was applied to infer a proteomic model predicting gestational age. A bootstrapping procedure and piecewise regression analysis was used to extract the minimum number of proteins required for predicting gestational age without compromising predictive power. Gene ontology analysis was applied to infer enrichment of molecular functions among proteins included in the proteomic model. Changes in abundance of proteins with such functions were linked to immune features predictive of gestational age at the time of sampling in pregnancies delivering at term. RESULTS: An independently validated model consisting of 74 proteins strongly predicted gestational age (P = 3.8 × 10-14, R = 0.97). The model could be reduced to 8 proteins without losing its predictive power (P = 1.7 × 10-3, R = 0.91). The 3 top ranked proteins were glypican 3, chorionic somatomammotropin hormone, and granulins. Proteins activating the Janus kinase and signal transducer and activator of transcription pathway were enriched in the proteomic model, chorionic somatomammotropin hormone being the top-ranked protein. Abundance of chorionic somatomammotropin hormone strongly correlated with signal transducer and activator of transcription-5 signaling activity in CD4 T cells, the endogenous cell-signaling event most predictive of gestational age. CONCLUSION: Results indicate that precisely timed changes in the plasma proteome during term pregnancy mirror a proteomic clock. Importantly, the combined use of several plasma proteins was required for accurate prediction. The exciting promise of such a clock is that deviations from its regular chronological profile may assist in the early diagnoses of pregnancy-related pathologies, and point to underlying pathophysiology. Functional analysis of the proteomic model generated the novel hypothesis that chrionic somatomammotropin hormone may critically regulate T-cell function during pregnancy.

Regularization Paths for Conditional Logistic Regression: The clogitL1 Package.

We apply the cyclic coordinate descent algorithm of Friedman, Hastie, and Tibshirani (2010) to the fitting of a conditional logistic regression model with lasso [Formula: see text] and elastic net penalties. The sequential strong rules of Tibshirani, Bien, Hastie, Friedman, Taylor, Simon, and Tibshirani (2012) are also used in the algorithm and it is shown that these offer a considerable speed up over the standard coordinate descent algorithm with warm starts. Once implemented, the algorithm is used in simulation studies to compare the variable selection and prediction performance of the conditional logistic regression model against that of its unconditional (standard) counterpart. We find that the conditional model performs admirably on datasets drawn from a suitable conditional distribution, outperforming its unconditional counterpart at variable selection. The conditional model is also fit to a small real world dataset, demonstrating how we obtain regularization paths for the parameters of the model and how we apply cross validation for this method where natural unconditional prediction rules are hard to come by.

MicroRNAs are independent predictors of outcome in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma patients treated with R-CHOP.

PURPOSE: Diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) heterogeneity has prompted investigations for new biomarkers that can accurately predict survival. A previously reported 6-gene model combined with the International Prognostic Index (IPI) could predict patients' outcome. However, even these predictors are not capable of unambiguously identifying outcome, suggesting that additional biomarkers might improve their predictive power. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: We studied expression of 11 microRNAs (miRNA) that had previously been reported to have variable expression in DLBCL tumors. We measured the expression of each miRNA by quantitative real-time PCR analyses in 176 samples from uniformly treated DLBCL patients and correlated the results to survival. RESULTS: In a univariate analysis, the expression of miR-18a correlated with overall survival (OS), whereas the expression of miR-181a and miR-222 correlated with progression-free survival (PFS). A multivariate Cox regression analysis including the IPI, the 6-gene model-derived mortality predictor score and expression of the miR-18a, miR-181a, and miR-222, revealed that all variables were independent predictors of survival except the expression of miR-222 for OS and the expression of miR-18a for PFS. CONCLUSION: The expression of specific miRNAs may be useful for DLBCL survival prediction and their role in the pathogenesis of this disease should be examined further.

Regularization Paths for Cox's Proportional Hazards Model via Coordinate Descent.

We introduce a pathwise algorithm for the Cox proportional hazards model, regularized by convex combinations of ℓ1 and ℓ2 penalties (elastic net). Our algorithm fits via cyclical coordinate descent, and employs warm starts to find a solution along a regularization path. We demonstrate the efficacy of our algorithm on real and simulated data sets, and find considerable speedup between our algorithm and competing methods.

The prognostic value of tumor-associated macrophages in leiomyosarcoma: a single institution study.

INTRODUCTION: High numbers of tumor-associated macrophages (TAMs) have been associated with poor outcome in several solid tumors. In 2 previous studies, we showed that colony stimulating factor-1 (CSF1) is secreted by leiomyosarcoma (LMS) and that the increase in macrophages and CSF1 associated proteins are markers for poor prognosis in both gynecologic and nongynecologic LMS in a multicentered study. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the outcome of patients with LMS from a single institution according to the number of TAMs evaluated through 3 CSF1 associated proteins. METHODS: Patients with LMS treated at Stanford University with adequate archived tissue and clinical data were eligible for this retrospective study. Data from chart reviews included tumor site, size, grade, stage, treatment, and disease status at the time of last follow-up. The 3 CSF1 associated proteins (CD163, CD16, and cathepsin L) were evaluated by immunohistochemistry on tissue microarrays. Kaplan-Meier survival curves and univariate Cox proportional hazards models were fit to assess the association of clinical predictors as well as CSF1 associated proteins with overall survival. RESULTS: A total of 52 patients diagnosed from 1983 to 2007 were evaluated. Univariate Cox proportional hazards models were fit to assess the significance of grade, size, stage, and the 3 CSF1 associated proteins in predicting OS. Grade, size, and stage were not significantly associated with survival in the full patient cohort, but grade and stage were significant predictors of survival in the gynecologic (GYN) LMS samples (P = 0.038 and P = 0.0164, respectively). Increased cathepsin L was associated with a worse outcome in GYN LMS (P = 0.049). Similar findings were seen with CD16 (P < 0.0001). In addition, CSF1 response enriched (all 3 stains positive) GYN LMS had a poor overall survival when compared with CSF1 response poor tumors (P = 0.001). These results were not seen in non-GYN LMS. CONCLUSIONS: Our data form an independent confirmation of the prognostic significance of TAMs and the CSF1 associated proteins in LMS. More aggressive or targeted therapies could be considered in the subset of LMS patients that highly express these markers.

Regularization Paths for Generalized Linear Models via Coordinate Descent.

We develop fast algorithms for estimation of generalized linear models with convex penalties. The models include linear regression, two-class logistic regression, and multinomial regression problems while the penalties include ℓ(1) (the lasso), ℓ(2) (ridge regression) and mixtures of the two (the elastic net). The algorithms use cyclical coordinate descent, computed along a regularization path. The methods can handle large problems and can also deal efficiently with sparse features. In comparative timings we find that the new algorithms are considerably faster than competing methods.

Analysis of factorial time-course microarrays with application to a clinical study of burn injury.

Time-course microarray experiments are capable of capturing dynamic gene expression profiles. It is important to study how these dynamic profiles depend on the multiple factors that characterize the experimental condition under which the time course is observed. Analytic methods are needed to simultaneously handle the time course and factorial structure in the data. We developed a method to evaluate factor effects by pooling information across the time course while accounting for multiple testing and nonnormality of the microarray data. The method effectively extracts gene-specific response features and models their dependency on the experimental factors. Both longitudinal and cross-sectional time-course data can be handled by our approach. The method was used to analyze the impact of age on the temporal gene response to burn injury in a large-scale clinical study. Our analysis reveals that 21% of the genes responsive to burn are age-specific, among which expressions of mitochondria and immunoglobulin genes are differentially perturbed in pediatric and adult patients by burn injury. These new findings in the body's response to burn injury between children and adults support further investigations of therapeutic options targeting specific age groups. The methodology proposed here has been implemented in R package "TANOVA" and submitted to the Comprehensive R Archive Network at http://www.r-project.org/. It is also available for download at http://gluegrant1.stanford.edu/TANOVA/.

Paraffin-based 6-gene model predicts outcome in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma patients treated with R-CHOP.

Diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) is a heterogeneous disease characterized by variable clinical outcomes. Outcome prediction at the time of diagnosis is of paramount importance. Previously, we constructed a 6-gene model for outcome prediction of DLBCL patients treated with anthracycline-based chemotherapies. However, the standard therapy has evolved into rituximab, cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, vincristine and prednisone (R-CHOP). Herein, we evaluated the predictive power of a paraffin-based 6-gene model in R-CHOP-treated DLBCL patients. RNA was successfully extracted from 132 formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) specimens. Expression of the 6 genes comprising the model was measured and the mortality predictor score was calculated for each patient. The mortality predictor score divided patients into low-risk (below median) and high-risk (above median) subgroups with significantly different overall survival (OS; P = .002) and progression-free survival (PFS; P = .038). The model also predicted OS and PFS when the mortality predictor score was considered as a continuous variable (P = .002 and .010, respectively) and was independent of the IPI for prediction of OS (P = .008). These findings demonstrate that the prognostic value of the 6-gene model remains significant in the era of R-CHOP treatment and that the model can be applied to routine FFPE tissue from initial diagnostic biopsies.

Multiplexed proximity ligation assays to profile putative plasma biomarkers relevant to pancreatic and ovarian cancer.

BACKGROUND: Sensitive methods are needed for biomarker discovery and validation. We tested one promising technology, multiplex proximity ligation assay (PLA), in a pilot study profiling plasma biomarkers in pancreatic and ovarian cancer. METHODS: We used 4 panels of 6- and 7-plex PLAs to detect biomarkers, with each assay consuming 1 microL plasma and using either matched monoclonal antibody pairs or single batches of polyclonal antibody. Protein analytes were converted to unique DNA amplicons by proximity ligation and subsequently detected by quantitative PCR. We profiled 18 pancreatic cancer cases and 19 controls and 19 ovarian cancer cases and 20 controls for the following proteins: a disintegrin and metalloprotease 8, CA-125, CA 19-9, carboxypeptidase A1, carcinoembryonic antigen, connective tissue growth factor, epidermal growth factor receptor, epithelial cell adhesion molecule, Her2, galectin-1, insulin-like growth factor 2, interleukin-1alpha, interleukin-7, mesothelin, macrophage migration inhibitory factor, osteopontin, secretory leukocyte peptidase inhibitor, tumor necrosis factor alpha, vascular endothelial growth factor, and chitinase 3-like 1. Probes for CA-125 were present in 3 of the multiplex panels. We measured plasma concentrations of the CA-125-mesothelin complex by use of a triple-specific PLA with 2 ligation events among 3 probes. RESULTS: The assays displayed consistent measurements of CA-125 independent of which other markers were simultaneously detected and showed good correlation with Luminex data. In comparison to literature reports, we achieved expected results for other putative markers. CONCLUSION: Multiplex PLA using either matched monoclonal antibodies or single batches of polyclonal antibody should prove useful for identifying and validating sets of putative disease biomarkers and finding multimarker panels.

Extracting binary signals from microarray time-course data.

This article presents a new method for analyzing microarray time courses by identifying genes that undergo abrupt transitions in expression level, and the time at which the transitions occur. The algorithm matches the sequence of expression levels for each gene against temporal patterns having one or two transitions between two expression levels. The algorithm reports a P-value for the matching pattern of each gene, and a global false discovery rate can also be computed. After matching, genes can be sorted by the direction and time of transitions. Genes can be partitioned into sets based on the direction and time of change for further analysis, such as comparison with Gene Ontology annotations or binding site motifs. The method is evaluated on simulated and actual time-course data. On microarray data for budding yeast, it is shown that the groups of genes that change in similar ways and at similar times have significant and relevant Gene Ontology annotations.

Oncogenic regulators and substrates of the anaphase promoting complex/cyclosome are frequently overexpressed in malignant tumors.

The fidelity of cell division is dependent on the accumulation and ordered destruction of critical protein regulators. By triggering the appropriately timed, ubiquitin-dependent proteolysis of the mitotic regulatory proteins securin, cyclin B, aurora A kinase, and polo-like kinase 1, the anaphase promoting complex/cyclosome (APC/C) ubiquitin ligase plays an essential role in maintaining genomic stability. Misexpression of these APC/C substrates, individually, has been implicated in genomic instability and cancer. However, no comprehensive survey of the extent of their misregulation in tumors has been performed. Here, we analyzed more than 1600 benign and malignant tumors by immunohistochemical staining of tissue microarrays and found frequent overexpression of securin, polo-like kinase 1, aurora A, and Skp2 in malignant tumors. Positive and negative APC/C regulators, Cdh1 and Emi1, respectively, were also more strongly expressed in malignant versus benign tumors. Clustering and statistical analysis supports the finding that malignant tumors generally show broad misregulation of mitotic APC/C substrates not seen in benign tumors, suggesting that a "mitotic profile" in tumors may result from misregulation of the APC/C destruction pathway. This profile of misregulated mitotic APC/C substrates and regulators in malignant tumors suggests that analysis of this pathway may be diagnostically useful and represent a potentially important therapeutic target.

Genome-wide characterization of gene expression variations and DNA copy number changes in prostate cancer cell lines.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to characterize gene expression and DNA copy number profiles in androgen sensitive (AS) and androgen insensitive (AI) prostate cancer cell lines on a genome-wide scale. METHODS: Gene expression profiles and DNA copy number changes were examined using DNA microarrays in eight commonly used prostate cancer cell lines. Chromosomal regions with DNA copy number changes were identified using cluster along chromosome (CLAC). RESULTS: There were discrete differences in gene expression patterns between AS and AI cells that were not limited to androgen-responsive genes. AI cells displayed more DNA copy number changes, especially amplifications, than AS cells. The gene expression profiles of cell lines showed limited similarities to prostate tumors harvested at surgery. CONCLUSIONS: AS and AI cell lines are different in their transcriptional programs and degree of DNA copy number alterations. This dataset provides a context for the use of prostate cancer cell lines as models for clinical cancers.

Prediction of survival in diffuse large-B-cell lymphoma based on the expression of six genes.

BACKGROUND: Several gene-expression signatures can be used to predict the prognosis in diffuse large-B-cell lymphoma, but the lack of practical tests for a genome-scale analysis has restricted the use of this method. METHODS: We studied 36 genes whose expression had been reported to predict survival in diffuse large-B-cell lymphoma. We measured the expression of each of these genes in independent samples of lymphoma from 66 patients by quantitative real-time polymerase-chain-reaction analyses and related the results to overall survival. RESULTS: In a univariate analysis, genes were ranked on the basis of their ability to predict survival. The genes that were the strongest predictors were LMO2, BCL6, FN1, CCND2, SCYA3, and BCL2. We developed a multivariate model that was based on the expression of these six genes, and we validated the model in two independent microarray data sets. The model was independent of the International Prognostic Index and added to its predictive power. CONCLUSIONS: Measurement of the expression of six genes is sufficient to predict overall survival in diffuse large-B-cell lymphoma.

Different gene expression patterns in invasive lobular and ductal carcinomas of the breast.

Invasive ductal carcinoma (IDC) and invasive lobular carcinoma (ILC) are the two major histological types of breast cancer worldwide. Whereas IDC incidence has remained stable, ILC is the most rapidly increasing breast cancer phenotype in the United States and Western Europe. It is not clear whether IDC and ILC represent molecularly distinct entities and what genes might be involved in the development of these two phenotypes. We conducted comprehensive gene expression profiling studies to address these questions. Total RNA from 21 ILCs, 38 IDCs, two lymph node metastases, and three normal tissues were amplified and hybridized to approximately 42,000 clone cDNA microarrays. Data were analyzed using hierarchical clustering algorithms and statistical analyses that identify differentially expressed genes (significance analysis of microarrays) and minimal subsets of genes (prediction analysis for microarrays) that succinctly distinguish ILCs and IDCs. Eleven of 21 (52%) of the ILCs ("typical" ILCs) clustered together and displayed different gene expression profiles from IDCs, whereas the other ILCs ("ductal-like" ILCs) were distributed between different IDC subtypes. Many of the differentially expressed genes between ILCs and IDCs code for proteins involved in cell adhesion/motility, lipid/fatty acid transport and metabolism, immune/defense response, and electron transport. Many genes that distinguish typical and ductal-like ILCs are involved in regulation of cell growth and immune response. Our data strongly suggest that over half the ILCs differ from IDCs not only in histological and clinical features but also in global transcription programs. The remaining ILCs closely resemble IDCs in their transcription patterns. Further studies are needed to explore the differences between ILC molecular subtypes and to determine whether they require different therapeutic strategies.

Note on "Comparison of model selection for regression" by Vladimir Cherkassky and Yunqian Ma.

While Cherkassky and Ma (2003) raise some interesting issues in comparing techniques for model selection, their article appears to be written largely in protest of comparisons made in our book, Elements of Statistical Learning (2001). Cherkassky and Ma feel that we falsely represented the structural risk minimization (SRM) method, which they defend strongly here. In a two-page section of our book (pp. 212-213), we made an honest attempt to compare the SRM method with two related techniques, Aikaike information criterion (AIC) and Bayesian information criterion (BIC). Apparently, we did not apply SRM in the optimal way. We are also accused of using contrived examples, designed to make SRM look bad. Alas, we did introduce some careless errors in our original simulation--errors that were corrected in the second and subsequent printings. Some of these errors were pointed out to us by Cherkassky and Ma (we supplied them with our source code), and as a result we replaced the assessment "SRM performs poorly overall" with a more moderate "the performance of SRM is mixed" (p. 212).

Expression of cytokeratins 17 and 5 identifies a group of breast carcinomas with poor clinical outcome.

While several prognostic factors have been identified in breast carcinoma, the clinical outcome remains hard to predict for individual patients. Better predictive markers are needed to help guide difficult treatment decisions. In a previous study of 78 breast carcinoma specimens, we noted an association between poor clinical outcome and the expression of cytokeratin 17 and/or cytokeratin 5 mRNAs. Here we describe the results of immunohistochemistry studies using monoclonal antibodies against these markers to analyze more than 600 paraffin-embedded breast tumors in tissue microarrays. We found that expression of cytokeratin 17 and/or cytokeratin 5/6 in tumor cells was associated with a poor clinical outcome. Moreover, multivariate analysis showed that in node-negative breast carcinoma, expression of these cytokeratins was a prognostic factor independent of tumor size and tumor grade.