Perspectives on environment and health research in Denmark.

AIMS: We provide an overview of nationwide environmental data available for Denmark and its linkage potentials to individual-level records with the aim of promoting research on the potential impact of the local surrounding environment on human health. BACKGROUND: Researchers in Denmark have unique opportunities for conducting large population-based studies treating the entire Danish population as one big, open and dynamic cohort based on nationally complete population and health registries. So far, most research in this area has utilised individual- and family-level information to study the clustering of disease in families, comorbidities, risk of, and prognosis after, disease onset, and social gradients in disease risk. Linking environmental data in time and space to individuals enables novel possibilities for studying the health effects of the social, built and physical environment. METHODS: We describe the possible linkage between individuals and their local surrounding environment to establish the exposome - that is, the total environmental exposure of an individual over their life course. CONCLUSIONS: The currently available nationwide longitudinal environmental data in Denmark constitutes a valuable and globally rare asset that can help explore the impact of the exposome on human health.

Payout suspensions during the Covid-19 pandemic.

We provide evidence on the unprecedented rate at which firms suspended dividend payments and share repurchases following the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic, compare it to the Global Financial Crisis, and estimate the amount of cash firms saved through payout suspensions.

Dividend suspensions and cash flows during the Covid-19 pandemic: A dynamic econometric model.

Firms suspended dividend payments in unprecedented numbers in response to the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic. We develop a multivariate dynamic econometric model that allows dividend suspensions to affect the conditional mean, volatility, and jump probability of growth in daily industry-level dividends and demonstrate how the parameters of this model can be estimated using Bayesian Gibbs sampling methods. We find considerable heterogeneity across industries in the dynamics of daily dividend growth and the impact of dividend suspensions.

The association between mental disorders and subsequent years of working life: a Danish population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Mental disorders can affect workforce participation via a range of mechanisms. In this study, we aimed to estimate the association between different types of mental disorders and working years lost, defined as the number of years not actively working or enrolled in an educational programme. METHODS: In this population-based cohort study, we included all people aged 18-65 years (mean 38·0 [SD 13·9]) in the Danish Civil Registration System from Jan 1, 1995 to Dec 31, 2016. Information on mental disorders was obtained from the Danish Psychiatric Central Research Register and information on labour market characteristics was obtained from administrative registers. Follow-up started at age 18 years, immigration to Denmark, or on Jan 1, 1995, whichever came later; and it ended at age 65 years, death, emigration from Denmark, disability pension, voluntary early retirement, or Dec 31, 2016 (whichever came earlier). As the main outcome, we estimated working years lost for those diagnosed with any mental disorder and 24 types of mental disorders, as well as for the general population of same age and sex. We decomposed total working years lost into periods of unemployment or sick leave, disability pension, voluntary early retirement, or death. Data on ethnicity were not available through administrative registers. FINDINGS: A total of 5 163 321 individuals, 2 642 383 men and 2 520 938 women, were followed up for 65·4 million person-years. Overall, 488 775 (9·47%) individuals were diagnosed with a mental disorder. On average, individuals with mental disorders lost an additional 10·52 (95% CI 10·48-10·57) years of working life compared with the general Danish population. Receiving a disability pension (7·54 [7·49-7·59] years) and longer periods of unemployment (2·24 [2·21-2·27] years) accounted for most of this difference. INTERPRETATION: Our findings foreground the substantial impact of mental disorders on workforce participation. There is a need to invest in programmes that reduce the burden of working years lost and assist people with mental disorders in returning to the workforce. FUNDING: Lundbeck Foundation and Danish National Research Foundation.

Association of Childhood Exposure to Nitrogen Dioxide and Polygenic Risk Score for Schizophrenia With the Risk of Developing Schizophrenia.

Importance: Schizophrenia is a highly heritable psychiatric disorder, and recent studies have suggested that exposure to nitrogen dioxide (NO2) during childhood is associated with an elevated risk of subsequently developing schizophrenia. However, it is not known whether the increased risk associated with NO2 exposure is owing to a greater genetic liability among those exposed to highest NO2 levels. Objective: To examine the associations between childhood NO2 exposure and genetic liability for schizophrenia (as measured by a polygenic risk score), and risk of developing schizophrenia. Design, Setting, and Participants: Population-based cohort study including individuals with schizophrenia (International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision code F20) and a randomly selected subcohort. Using national registry data, all individuals born in Denmark between May 1, 1981, and December 31, 2002, were followed up from their 10th birthday until the first occurrence of schizophrenia, emigration, death, or December 31, 2012, whichever came first. Statistical analyses were conducted between October 24, 2018, and June 17, 2019. Exposures: Individual exposure to NO2 during childhood estimated as mean daily exposure to NO2 at residential addresses from birth to the 10th birthday. Polygenic risk scores were calculated as the weighted sum of risk alleles at selected single-nucleotide polymorphisms based on genetic material obtained from dried blood spot samples from the Danish Newborn Screening Biobank and on the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium genome-wide association study summary statistics file. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcome was schizophrenia. Weighted Cox proportional hazards regression models were fitted to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (AHRs) for schizophrenia with 95% CIs according to the exposures. Results: Of a total of 23 355 individuals, 11 976 (51.3%) were male and all had Danish-born parents. During the period of the study, 3531 were diagnosed with schizophrenia. Higher polygenic risk scores were correlated with higher childhood NO2 exposure (ρ = 0.0782; 95% CI, 0.065-0.091; P < .001). A 10-µg/m3 increase in childhood daily NO2 exposure (AHR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.15-1.32) and a 1-SD increase in polygenic risk score (AHR, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.23-1.35) were independently associated with increased schizophrenia risk. Conclusions and Relevance: These findings suggest that the apparent association between NO2 exposure and schizophrenia is only slightly confounded by a higher polygenic risk score for schizophrenia among individuals living in areas with greater NO2. The findings demonstrate the utility of including polygenic risk scores in epidemiologic studies.

Genome-wide association study implicates CHRNA2 in cannabis use disorder.

Cannabis is the most frequently used illicit psychoactive substance worldwide; around one in ten users become dependent. The risk for cannabis use disorder (CUD) has a strong genetic component, with twin heritability estimates ranging from 51 to 70%. Here we performed a genome-wide association study of CUD in 2,387 cases and 48,985 controls, followed by replication in 5,501 cases and 301,041 controls. We report a genome-wide significant risk locus for CUD (P = 9.31 × 10-12) that replicates in an independent population (Preplication = 3.27 × 10-3, Pmeta-analysis = 9.09 × 10-12). The index variant (rs56372821) is a strong expression quantitative trait locus for cholinergic receptor nicotinic α2 subunit (CHRNA2); analyses of the genetically regulated gene expression identified a significant association of CHRNA2 expression with CUD in brain tissue. At the polygenic level, analyses revealed a significant decrease in the risk of CUD with increased load of variants associated with cognitive performance. The results provide biological insights and inform on the genetic architecture of CUD.

Trait evolution, resource specialization and vulnerability to plant extinctions among Antillean hummingbirds.

Species traits are thought to predict feeding specialization and the vulnerability of a species to extinctions of interaction partners, but the context in which a species evolved and currently inhabits may also matter. Notably, the predictive power of traits may require that traits evolved to fit interaction partners. Furthermore, local abiotic and biotic conditions may be important. On islands, for instance, specialized and vulnerable species are predicted to be found mainly in mountains, whereas species in lowlands should be generalized and less vulnerable. We evaluated these predictions for hummingbirds and their nectar-food plants on Antillean islands. Our results suggest that the rates of hummingbird trait divergence were higher among ancestral mainland forms before the colonization of the Antilles. In correspondence with the limited trait evolution that occurred within the Antilles, local abiotic and biotic conditions-not species traits-correlate with hummingbird resource specialization and the vulnerability of hummingbirds to extinctions of their floral resources. Specifically, hummingbirds were more specialized and vulnerable in conditions with high topographical complexity, high rainfall, low temperatures and high floral resource richness, which characterize the Antillean Mountains. These findings show that resource specialization and species vulnerability to extinctions of interaction partners are highly context-dependent.

High proportion of smaller ranged hummingbird species coincides with ecological specialization across the Americas.

Ecological communities that experience stable climate conditions have been speculated to preserve more specialized interspecific associations and have higher proportions of smaller ranged species (SRS). Thus, areas with disproportionally large numbers of SRS are expected to coincide geographically with a high degree of community-level ecological specialization, but this suggestion remains poorly supported with empirical evidence. Here, we analysed data for hummingbird resource specialization, range size, contemporary climate, and Late Quaternary climate stability for 46 hummingbird-plant mutualistic networks distributed across the Americas, representing 130 hummingbird species (ca 40% of all hummingbird species). We demonstrate a positive relationship between the proportion of SRS of hummingbirds and community-level specialization, i.e. the division of the floral niche among coexisting hummingbird species. This relationship remained strong even when accounting for climate, furthermore, the effect of SRS on specialization was far stronger than the effect of specialization on SRS, suggesting that climate largely influences specialization through species' range-size dynamics. Irrespective of the exact mechanism involved, our results indicate that communities consisting of higher proportions of SRS may be vulnerable to disturbance not only because of their small geographical ranges, but also because of their high degree of specialization.

Phylogeny, classification, and fruit evolution of the species-rich Neotropical bellflowers (Campanulaceae: Lobelioideae).

UNLABELLED: • PREMISE OF THE STUDY: The species-rich Neotropical genera Centropogon, Burmeistera, and Siphocampylus represent more than half of the ∼1200 species in the subfamily Lobelioideae (Campanulaceae). They exhibit remarkable morphological variation in floral morphology and habit. Limited taxon sampling and phylogenetic resolution, however, obscures our understanding of relationships between and within these genera and underscores our uncertainty of the systematic value of fruit type as a major diagnostic character.• METHODS: We inferred a phylogeny from five plastid DNA regions (rpl32-trnL, ndhF-rpl32, rps16-trnK, trnG-trnG-trns, rbcL) using maximum-likelihood and Bayesian inference. Ancestral character reconstructions were applied to infer patterns of fruit evolution.• KEY RESULTS: Our results demonstrate that the majority of species in the genera Centropogon, Burmeistera, and Siphocampylus together form a primarily mainland Neotropical clade, collectively termed the "centropogonids." Caribbean Siphocampylus, however, group with other Caribbean lobelioid species. We find high support for the monophyly of Burmeistera and the polyphyly of Centropogon and mainland Siphocampylus. The ancestral fruit type of the centropogonids is a capsule; berries have evolved independently multiple times.• CONCLUSIONS: Our plastid phylogeny greatly improves the phylogenetic resolution within Neotropical Lobelioideae and highlights the need for taxonomic revisions in the subfamily. Inference of ancestral character states identifies a dynamic pattern of fruit evolution within the centropogonids, emphasizing the difficulty of diagnosing broad taxonomic groups on the basis of fruit type. Finally, we identify that the centropogonids, Lysipomia, and Lobelia section Tupa form a Pan-Andean radiation with broad habitat diversity. This clade is a prime candidate for investigations of Neotropical biogeography and morphological evolution.

The role of biotic interactions in shaping distributions and realised assemblages of species: implications for species distribution modelling.

Predicting which species will occur together in the future, and where, remains one of the greatest challenges in ecology, and requires a sound understanding of how the abiotic and biotic environments interact with dispersal processes and history across scales. Biotic interactions and their dynamics influence species' relationships to climate, and this also has important implications for predicting future distributions of species. It is already well accepted that biotic interactions shape species' spatial distributions at local spatial extents, but the role of these interactions beyond local extents (e.g. 10 km(2) to global extents) are usually dismissed as unimportant. In this review we consolidate evidence for how biotic interactions shape species distributions beyond local extents and review methods for integrating biotic interactions into species distribution modelling tools. Drawing upon evidence from contemporary and palaeoecological studies of individual species ranges, functional groups, and species richness patterns, we show that biotic interactions have clearly left their mark on species distributions and realised assemblages of species across all spatial extents. We demonstrate this with examples from within and across trophic groups. A range of species distribution modelling tools is available to quantify species environmental relationships and predict species occurrence, such as: (i) integrating pairwise dependencies, (ii) using integrative predictors, and (iii) hybridising species distribution models (SDMs) with dynamic models. These methods have typically only been applied to interacting pairs of species at a single time, require a priori ecological knowledge about which species interact, and due to data paucity must assume that biotic interactions are constant in space and time. To better inform the future development of these models across spatial scales, we call for accelerated collection of spatially and temporally explicit species data. Ideally, these data should be sampled to reflect variation in the underlying environment across large spatial extents, and at fine spatial resolution. Simplified ecosystems where there are relatively few interacting species and sometimes a wealth of existing ecosystem monitoring data (e.g. arctic, alpine or island habitats) offer settings where the development of modelling tools that account for biotic interactions may be less difficult than elsewhere.

Specialization in plant-hummingbird networks is associated with species richness, contemporary precipitation and quaternary climate-change velocity.

Large-scale geographical patterns of biotic specialization and the underlying drivers are poorly understood, but it is widely believed that climate plays an important role in determining specialization. As climate-driven range dynamics should diminish local adaptations and favor generalization, one hypothesis is that contemporary biotic specialization is determined by the degree of past climatic instability, primarily Quaternary climate-change velocity. Other prominent hypotheses predict that either contemporary climate or species richness affect biotic specialization. To gain insight into geographical patterns of contemporary biotic specialization and its drivers, we use network analysis to determine the degree of specialization in plant-hummingbird mutualistic networks sampled at 31 localities, spanning a wide range of climate regimes across the Americas. We found greater biotic specialization at lower latitudes, with latitude explaining 20-22% of the spatial variation in plant-hummingbird specialization. Potential drivers of specialization--contemporary climate, Quaternary climate-change velocity, and species richness--had superior explanatory power, together explaining 53-64% of the variation in specialization. Notably, our data provides empirical evidence for the hypothesized roles of species richness, contemporary precipitation and Quaternary climate-change velocity as key predictors of biotic specialization, whereas contemporary temperature and seasonality seem unimportant in determining specialization. These results suggest that both ecological and evolutionary processes at Quaternary time scales can be important in driving large-scale geographical patterns of contemporary biotic specialization, at least for co-evolved systems such as plant-hummingbird networks.

Plant-hummingbird interactions in the West Indies: floral specialisation gradients associated with environment and hummingbird size.

Floral phenotype and pollination system of a plant may be influenced by the abiotic environment and the local pollinator assemblage. This was investigated in seven plant-hummingbird assemblages on the West Indian islands of Grenada, Dominica and Puerto Rico. We report all hummingbird and insect pollinators of 49 hummingbird-pollinated plant species, as well as six quantitative and semi-quantitative floral characters that determine visitor restriction, attraction and reward. Using nonmetric multidimensional scaling analysis, we show that hummingbird-pollinated plants in the West Indies separate in floral phenotypic space into two gradients-one associated with the abiotic environment and another with hummingbird size. Plants pollinated by large, long-billed hummingbirds had flowers with long corolla tube, large amounts of nectar and showy orange-red colouration. These attracted few or no insect species, whereas plants pollinated by small, short-billed hummingbirds were frequently pollinated by insects, particularly lepidopterans. The separation of plants related to environmental factors showed that species in the wet and cold highlands produced large amounts of dilute nectar, possessed no or a weak odour, and were associated with few insects, particularly few hymenopterans, compared to plants in the dry and warm lowlands. The most specialised hummingbird-pollinated plants are found in the West Indian highlands where they are pollinated by mainly large, long-billed hummingbirds. At the other extreme, highly generalised plants growing in the dry and warm lowlands are pollinated by small, short-billed hummingbirds and numerous insect species. This illustrates that, even within the hummingbird-pollinated flora, pollination syndrome and the degree of specialisation may vary tremendously depending on pollinator morphology and environment.