Concordance between COVID-19 mortality statistics derived from clinical audit and death certificates in Östergötland county, Sweden.

OBJECTIVES: Despite early notions that correct attribution of deaths caused by SARS-CoV-2 infection is critical to the understanding of the COVID-19 pandemic, three years later, the accuracy of COVID-19 death counts is still contested. We aimed to compare official death statistics with cause-of-death assessments made in a clinical audit routine by experienced physicians having access to the full medical record. STUDY DESIGN: Health service quality evaluation. METHODS: In Östergötland county (pop. 465,000), Sweden, a clinical audit team assessed from the start of the pandemic the cause of death in individuals having deceased after testing positive for SARS-CoV-2. We estimated the concordance between official data on COVID-19 deaths and data from the clinical audit using correlations (r) between the cause-of-death categories and discrepancies between the absolute numbers of categorised deaths. RESULTS: The concordance between the data sources was poor regarding whether COVID-19 was the underlying or a contributing cause of death. Grouping of the causes increased the correlations to acceptable strength. Also including deaths implicated by a positive SARS-CoV-2 test in the clinical categorisation of COVID-19 deaths reduced the difference in absolute number of deaths; with these modifications, the concordance was acceptable before the COVID-19 vaccination program was initiated (r = 0.97; symmetric mean absolute percentage error (SMAPE) = 19%), while a difference in the absolute numbers of deaths remained in the vaccination period (r = 0.94; SMAPE = 35%). CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights that carefulness is warranted when COVID-19 death statistics are used in health service planning and resonates a need for further research on cause-of-death recording methodologies.

Young athletes' health knowledge system: Qualitative analysis of health learning processes in adolescent sportspersons.

Recognized side effects on health associated with sports participation in youth include overtraining, doping, and exposure to harassment and violence. Many of these effects originate in contexts where young athletes are beginning to make decisions about their sports practices on their own. This study sets out to explore knowledge and reasoning about health among adolescent athletes and to describe how health knowledge management structures are associated with different social systems. Qualitative data were collected from focus groups involving 65 young Swedish athletes aged 16-17 years. The participants' knowledge and reasoning about health were examined using a deductive thematic analysis, categories from Bloom's taxonomy of educational objectives, and Luhmann's social systems theory. The meaning of health was found to have a dynamic character for the young athletes, associated with constantly striving to satisfy immediate needs and fulfill short-time life goals. The athletes' thinking about health was associated with a pragmatic "health-as-a-resource" perspective, characterized by group self-comparisons, rapid cognitive processing, and opportunistic substitutions. They expressed a particular interest in experiential learning and personally relevant procedural knowledge, and they perceived that their factual knowledge about health was saturated. The results of this study add emphasis to the importance of involving adolescent sportspersons in the development of health education programs and contextualizing the programs to the athletes' specific age and social environment.

Injuries in youth track and field are perceived to have multiple-level causes that call for ecological (holistic-developmental) interventions: A national sporting community perceptions and experiences.

Engaging in competitive sports as a youth can have many health benefits, but recent studies also report a high risk for injury. The long-term purpose of this Swedish research program is to develop a framework for safe track and field training for young athletes (aged 12-15 years). The aim of this study was to establish what is perceived to contribute and cause injuries in youth track and field by compiling the best available experiential knowledge about the underlying factors and use this knowledge to identify appropriate areas to handle these in practical ways. Nine focus group interviews with in total 74 participants and confirming interviews with five individuals were performed in seven Swedish regions. Qualitative research methods were used for data analysis. Injuries in youth athletes were not considered to be strictly the result of individual factors but rather the result of the interactions between factors at different levels. Three major factors emerged as follows: Insufficient knowledge for athletic development in daily practice; shortsighted communities of practice and sports policies not adjusted to youth; and societal health behaviors. The experiential knowledge in the national sporting community suggests that if effective and sustainable injury prevention processes are to be implemented for youth track and field, an ecological (holistic-developmental) approach to injury prevention is needed. Such an approach allows a longitudinal development-focused strategy for prevention that spans an athlete's entire career.

Place-based social contact and mixing: a typology of generic meeting places of relevance for infectious disease transmission.

This study aims to develop a typology of generic meeting places based on social contact and mixing of relevance for infectious disease transmission. Data were collected by means of a contact diary survey conducted on a representative sample of the Swedish population. The typology is derived from a cluster analysis accounting for four dimensions associated with transmission risk: visit propensity and its characteristics in terms of duration, number of other persons present and likelihood of physical contact. In the analysis, we also study demographic, socio-economic and geographical differences in the propensity of visiting meeting places. The typology identifies the family venue, the fixed activity site, the family vehicle, the trading plaza and the social network hub as generic meeting places. The meeting place typology represents a spatially explicit account of social contact and mixing relevant to infectious disease modelling, where the social context of the outbreak can be highlighted in light of the actual infectious disease.

Influenza detection and prediction algorithms: comparative accuracy trial in Östergötland county, Sweden, 2008-2012.

Methods for the detection of influenza epidemics and prediction of their progress have seldom been comparatively evaluated using prospective designs. This study aimed to perform a prospective comparative trial of algorithms for the detection and prediction of increased local influenza activity. Data on clinical influenza diagnoses recorded by physicians and syndromic data from a telenursing service were used. Five detection and three prediction algorithms previously evaluated in public health settings were calibrated and then evaluated over 3 years. When applied on diagnostic data, only detection using the Serfling regression method and prediction using the non-adaptive log-linear regression method showed acceptable performances during winter influenza seasons. For the syndromic data, none of the detection algorithms displayed a satisfactory performance, while non-adaptive log-linear regression was the best performing prediction method. We conclude that evidence was found for that available algorithms for influenza detection and prediction display satisfactory performance when applied on local diagnostic data during winter influenza seasons. When applied on local syndromic data, the evaluated algorithms did not display consistent performance. Further evaluations and research on combination of methods of these types in public health information infrastructures for 'nowcasting' (integrated detection and prediction) of influenza activity are warranted.

Algorithms for detecting and predicting influenza outbreaks: metanarrative review of prospective evaluations.

OBJECTIVES: Reliable monitoring of influenza seasons and pandemic outbreaks is essential for response planning, but compilations of reports on detection and prediction algorithm performance in influenza control practice are largely missing. The aim of this study is to perform a metanarrative review of prospective evaluations of influenza outbreak detection and prediction algorithms restricted settings where authentic surveillance data have been used. DESIGN: The study was performed as a metanarrative review. An electronic literature search was performed, papers selected and qualitative and semiquantitative content analyses were conducted. For data extraction and interpretations, researcher triangulation was used for quality assurance. RESULTS: Eight prospective evaluations were found that used authentic surveillance data: three studies evaluating detection and five studies evaluating prediction. The methodological perspectives and experiences from the evaluations were found to have been reported in narrative formats representing biodefence informatics and health policy research, respectively. The biodefence informatics narrative having an emphasis on verification of technically and mathematically sound algorithms constituted a large part of the reporting. Four evaluations were reported as health policy research narratives, thus formulated in a manner that allows the results to qualify as policy evidence. CONCLUSIONS: Awareness of the narrative format in which results are reported is essential when interpreting algorithm evaluations from an infectious disease control practice perspective.

Relevance of workplace social mixing during influenza pandemics: an experimental modelling study of workplace cultures.

Workplaces are one of the most important regular meeting places in society. The aim of this study was to use simulation experiments to examine the impact of different workplace cultures on influenza dissemination during pandemics. The impact is investigated by experiments with defined social-mixing patterns at workplaces using semi-virtual models based on authentic sociodemographic and geographical data from a North European community (population 136 000). A simulated pandemic outbreak was found to affect 33% of the total population in the community with the reference academic-creative workplace culture; virus transmission at the workplace accounted for 10·6% of the cases. A model with a prevailing industrial-administrative workplace culture generated 11% lower incidence than the reference model, while the model with a self-employed workplace culture (also corresponding to a hypothetical scenario with all workplaces closed) produced 20% fewer cases. The model representing an academic-creative workplace culture with restricted workplace interaction generated 12% lower cumulative incidence compared to the reference model. The results display important theoretical associations between workplace social-mixing cultures and community-level incidence rates during influenza pandemics. Social interaction patterns at workplaces should be taken into consideration when analysing virus transmission patterns during influenza pandemics.

Overcoming the organization-practice barrier in sports injury prevention: A nonhierarchical organizational model.

The organization of sports at the national level has seldom been included in scientific discussions of sports injury prevention. The aim of this study was to develop a model for organization of sports that supports prevention of overuse injuries. The quality function deployment technique was applied in seminars over a two-season period to develop a national organizational structure for athletics in Sweden that facilitates prevention of overuse injuries. Three central features of the resulting model for organization of sports at the national level are (a) diminishment of the organizational hierarchy: participatory safety policy design is introduced through annual meetings where actors from different sectors of the sporting community discuss training, injury prevention, and sports safety policy; (b) introduction of a safety surveillance system: a ubiquitous system for routine collection of injury and illness data; and (c) an open forum for discussion of safety issues: maintenance of a safety forum for participants from different sectors of the sport. A nonhierarchical model for organization of sports at the national level - facilitated by modern information technology - adapted for the prevention of overuse injuries has been developed. Further research is warranted to evaluate the new organizational model in prospective effectiveness studies.

Predictive performance of telenursing complaints in influenza surveillance: a prospective cohort study in Sweden.

Syndromic data sources have been sought to improve the timely detection of increased influenza transmission. This study set out to examine the prospective performance of telenursing chief complaints in predicting influenza activity. Data from two influenza seasons (2007/08 and 2008/09) were collected in a Swedish county (population 427,000) to retrospectively determine which grouping of telenursing chief complaints had the largest correlation with influenza case rates. This grouping was prospectively evaluated in the three subsequent seasons. The best performing telenursing complaint grouping in the retrospective algorithm calibration was fever (child, adult) and syncope (r=0.66; p<0.001). In the prospective evaluation, the performance of 14-day predictions was acceptable for the part of the evaluation period including the 2009 influenza pandemic (area under the curve (AUC)=0.84; positive predictive value (PPV)=0.58), while it was strong (AUC=0.89; PPV=0.93) for the remaining evaluation period including only influenza winter seasons. We recommend the use of telenursing complaints for predicting winter influenza seasons. The method requires adjustments when used during pandemics.

History matters: childhood weight trajectories as a basis for planning community-based obesity prevention to adolescents.

OBJECTIVE: To use epidemiological data and a standardized economic model to compare projected costs for obesity prevention in late adolescence accrued using a cross-sectional weight classification for selecting adolescents at age 15 years compared with a longitudinal classification. METHODS: All children born in a Swedish county (population 440 000) in 1991 who participated in all regular measurements of height and weight at ages 5, 10 and 15 years (n=4312) were included in the study. The selection strategies were compared by calculating the projected financial load resulting from supply of obesity prevention services from providers at all levels in the health care system. The difference in marginal cost per 1000 children was used as the primary end point for the analyses. RESULTS: Using the cross-sectional selection strategy, 3.8% of adolescents at age 15 years were selected for evaluation by a pediatric specialist, and 96.2% were chosen for population-based interventions. In the trajectory-based strategy, 2.4% of the adolescents were selected for intensive pediatric care, 1.4% for individual clinical interventions in primary health care, 14.0% for individual primary obesity prevention using the Internet and 82.1% for population-based interventions. Costs for the cross-sectional selection strategy were projected to USD463 581 per 1000 adolescents and for the trajectory-based strategy were USD 302 016 per 1000 adolescents. CONCLUSIONS: Using projections from epidemiological data, we found that by basing the selection of adolescents for obesity prevention on weight trajectories, the load on highly specialized pediatric care can be reduced by one-third and total health service costs for obesity management among adolescents reduced by one-third. Before use in policies and prevention program planning, our findings warrant confirmation in prospective cost-benefit studies.

Governance and implementation of sports safety practices by municipal offices in Swedish communities.

The objective of this study was to explore whether all-purpose health or safety promotion programmes and sports safety policies affect sports safety practices in local communities. Case study research methods were used to compare sports safety activities among offices in 73 Swedish municipalities; 28 with ongoing health or safety promotion programmes and 45 controls. The offices in municipalities with the WHO Healthy Cities (HC) or Safe Communities programmes were more likely to perform frequent inspections of sports facilities, and offices in the WHO HC programme were more likely to involve sports clubs in inspections. More than every second, property management office and environmental protection office conducted sports safety inspections compared with less than one in four planning offices and social welfare offices. It is concluded that all-purpose health and safety promotion programmes can reach out to have an effect on sports safety practices in local communities. These safety practices also reflect administrative work routines and managerial traditions.

Rock climbing injury rates and associated risk factors in a general climbing population.

The objective was to examine injury rates and associated risk factors in a representative sample of climbers. A random sample (n=606) of the Swedish Climbing Association members was sent a postal survey, with an effective response rate of 63%. Self-reported data regarding climbing history, safety practices and retrospective accounts of injury events (recall period 1.5 years) were obtained. Descriptive statistical methods were used to calculate injury incidences, and a two-step method including zero-inflated Poisson's regression analysis of re-injuries was used to determine the combination of risk factors that best explained individual injury rates. Overall, 4.2 injuries per 1000 climbing hours were reported, overuse injuries accounting for 93% of all injuries. Inflammatory tissue damages to fingers and wrists were the most common injury types. The multivariate analysis showed that overweight and practicing bouldering generally implied an increased primary injury risk, while there was a higher re-injury risk among male climbers and a lower risk among the older climbers. The high percentage of overuse injuries implies that climbing hours and loads should be gradually and systematically increased, and climbers regularly controlled for signs and symptoms of overuse. Further study of the association between body mass index and climbing injury is warranted.

Injury incidence in a men's elite bandy league: an epidemiological study of a full regular season.

Bandy is a popular European winter team-sport. The best bandy teams participate in semi-professional leagues, where the play-off games attract more than 10,000 spectators. Injury patterns in elite bandy have not been investigated previously. The aim of this study is to examine the incidence and types of injuries sustained during elite bandy games for men. Twelve of the 16 teams in the Swedish elite bandy league during the 2002 season participated in the study. In total, 36 injuries were recorded, corresponding to 7.3 injuries/1000 player game hours and 5.7 injuries/1000 athlete exposures. Collision was the most common injury cause (47%), while contusion was the most common injury type (25%), followed by fracture (22%) and ligament rupture (19%). The study showed that the injury incidence in elite bandy is low, but also that the injuries that are still sustained are relatively severe. This pattern can be explained by the fact that even though bandy rules do not allow body checks, collisions between skaters moving at high speeds still cause the majority of injuries. Further studies of the injury rehabilitation practices, and the implementation and evaluation of safety programs in elite bandy are warranted.

Risk of injury in elite football played on artificial turf versus natural grass: a prospective two-cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To compare injury risk in elite football played on artificial turf compared with natural grass. DESIGN: Prospective two-cohort study. SETTING: Male European elite football leagues. PARTICIPANTS: 290 players from 10 elite European clubs that had installed third-generation artificial turf surfaces in 2003-4, and 202 players from the Swedish Premier League acting as a control group. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Injury incidence. RESULTS: The incidence of injury during training and match play did not differ between surfaces for the teams in the artificial turf cohort: 2.42 v 2.94 injuries/1000 training hours and 19.60 v 21.48 injuries/1000 match hours for artificial turf and grass respectively. The risk of ankle sprain was increased in matches on artificial turf compared with grass (4.83 v 2.66 injuries/1000 match hours; rate ratio 1.81, 95% confidence interval 1.00 to 3.28). No difference in injury severity was seen between surfaces. Compared with the control cohort who played home games on natural grass, teams in the artificial turf cohort had a lower injury incidence during match play (15.26 v 23.08 injuries/1000 match hours; rate ratio 0.66, 95% confidence interval 0.48 to 0.91). CONCLUSIONS: No evidence of a greater risk of injury was found when football was played on artificial turf compared with natural grass. The higher incidence of ankle sprain on artificial turf warrants further attention, although this result should be interpreted with caution as the number of ankle sprains was low.

The impact of home safety promotion on different social strata in a WHO safe community.

OBJECTIVES: Few studies have investigated the impact of home safety promotion programmes on different social strata. The aim of this study was to investigate the distribution of effects of a community-based home safety programme on home injury rates among families with different connections to the labour market. METHODS: A quasi-experimental design was used, with pre- and post-implementation registrations covering the total populations below 65 years of age in the programme implementation area (population 41,000) and in a neighbouring comparison municipality (population 26,000) in Ostergötland County, Sweden. RESULTS: In the intervention and comparison areas, households in which the adults were not vocationally active displayed the highest rates of home injury. After 6 years of programme activity, the home injury rates for males and females in all social status categories displayed a decreasing trend in the intervention area. The opposite was true for the comparison area, i.e. the incidence of injury increased, with the exception of females in non-vocationally active households. The decline in injury rates in the intervention area was statistically significant for males and females in the employed category and for males in the non-vocationally active category. Changes in injury rates in the comparison area were not statistically significant. CONCLUSION: The programme was partially successful in that it reduced the injury rate in non-vocationally active households, but it did not influence the injury rate in the employed households. The study design did not allow for conclusions regarding why the post-intervention injury rates remained higher in non-vocationally active households. Further research on the association between the incidence of home injury and socio-economic factors is warranted.

Impact of social standing on sports injury prevention in a WHO safe community: intervention outcome by household employment contract and type of sport.

OBJECTIVES: As physical activity is promoted as part of a healthy lifestyle, sports injuries are becoming an important public health concern in many countries. The objective of this study is to investigate rates of sports injuries before and after implementation of a WHO Safe Community program. METHODS: Sports injury data were collected pre- and post-implementation from all individuals below 65 years of age during 1 year in the targeted municipality (population 41,000) and in a control municipality (population 26,000). A quasi-experimental design was used and individuals were divided into three categories based on household relationship to the labour market. RESULTS: There were no differences between socio-economic categories regarding pre-intervention injury rates. No statistically significant post-intervention changes in injury rate were observed in the control area or among any females in either area. In the intervention area, a statistically significant (p = 0.011) decrease in injury rate was observed among male members of households in which the vocationally important member was employed. A statistically significant decrease was observed in injuries sustained in team sports among male members of households in which the vocationally important member was employed (p = 0.001) and among members of households in which the vocationally important member was self employed (p<0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The study indicates areas for improvement in the civic network based WHO Safe Community model. The results show that females, participants in individual sports, and members of non-vocationally active households were less affected by the interventions. These facts have to be addressed in planning future community based sports injury prevention programmes and their evaluations.

How to avoid long-term sickness absence: the advice from women with personal experience.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to describe women's perceptions of what can be done to avoid extended sickness absence with following suffering and passivity. METHODS: Qualitative interviews were conducted with 82 women who had been on sickness absence (60 days or more) or were receiving disability pensions. The data were analysed using phenomenological methods. RESULTS: To be able to get back to work was found to be equivalent to breaking away from the prospect of isolation and loneliness. To support this, four parties were identified along with suggestions for their actions: the healthcare professionals, the woman who is on sick leave herself, the employer, and the social insurance official. Most interestingly, the family and close relatives were almost not mentioned at all. The results are connected to a theoretical model of distress in terms of enduring and suffering. CONCLUSIONS: It is necessary to look more carefully at how women on sickness absence use the resources in the world (like their families) to get well. More generally, the task is to understand why society deals insufficiently with women who need time off and cannot keep up with their duties because of illness.

Impact of social standing on injury prevention in a World Health Organization Safe Community--intervention outcome by household employment contract.

BACKGROUND: Although social inequality in health has been an argument for community-based injury prevention programmes, intervention outcomes with regard to differences in social standing have not been analysed. The objective of this study was to investigate rates of injuries treated in health-care among members of households at different levels of labour market integration before and after the implementation of a WHO Safe Community programme. METHODS: A quasi-experimental design was used with pre- and post-implementation data collection covering the total populations <65 years of age during one year in the programme implementation municipality (population 41 000) and in a control municipality (population 26 000). Changes in injury rates were studied using prospective registration of all acute care episodes with regard to social standing in both areas during the study periods. RESULTS: Male members of households categorized as not vocationally active displayed the highest pre-intervention injury rates. Also after the intervention, males in households classified as not vocationally active displayed notably elevated injury rates in both the control and study areas. Households in the study area in which the significant member was employed showed a post-intervention decrease in injury rate among both men (P < 0.001) and women (P < 0.01). No statistically significant change was observed in households in which the significant member was self-employed or not vocationally active. In the control area, only an aggregate-level decrease (P < 0.05) among members of households in which the significant member was employed was observed. CONCLUSIONS: The study displayed areas for improvement in the civic network-based WHO Safe Community model. Even though members of non-vocationally active households, in particular men, were at higher pre-intervention injury risk, they were not affected by the interventions. This fact has to be addressed when planning future community-based injury prevention programmes.