Space Radiation and Plasma Effects on Satellites and Aviation: Quantities and Metrics for Tracking Performance of Space Weather Environment Models.

The Community Coordinated Modeling Center has been leading community-wide space science and space weather model validation projects for many years. These efforts have been broadened and extended via the newly launched International Forum for Space Weather Modeling Capabilities Assessment (https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/assessment/). Its objective is to track space weather models' progress and performance over time, a capability that is critically needed in space weather operations and different user communities in general. The Space Radiation and Plasma Effects Working Team of the aforementioned International Forum works on one of the many focused evaluation topics and deals with five different subtopics (https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/assessment/topics/radiation-all.php) and varieties of particle populations: Surface Charging from tens of eV to 50-keV electrons and internal charging due to energetic electrons from hundreds keV to several MeVs. Single-event effects from solar energetic particles and galactic cosmic rays (several MeV to TeV), total dose due to accumulation of doses from electrons (>100 keV) and protons (>1 MeV) in a broad energy range, and radiation effects from solar energetic particles and galactic cosmic rays at aviation altitudes. A unique aspect of the Space Radiation and Plasma Effects focus area is that it bridges the space environments, engineering, and user communities. The intent of the paper is to provide an overview of the current status and to suggest a guide for how to best validate space environment models for operational/engineering use, which includes selection of essential space environment and effect quantities and appropriate metrics.

Analytical Representations for Characterizing the Global Aviation Radiation Environment Based on Model and Measurement Databases.

The Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety climatological model and the Automated Radiation Measurements for Aerospace Safety (ARMAS) statistical database are presented as polynomial fit equations. Using equations based on altitude, L shell, and geomagnetic conditions an effective dose rate for any location from a galactic cosmic ray (GCR) environment can be calculated. A subset of the ARMAS database is represented by a second polynomial fit equation for the GCR plus probable relativistic energetic particle (REP; Van Allen belt REP) effective dose rates within a narrow band of L shells with altitudinal and geomagnetic dependency. Solar energetic particle events are not considered in this study since our databases do not contain these events. This work supports a suggestion that there may be a REP contribution having an effect at aviation altitudes. The ARMAS database is rich in Western Hemisphere observations for L shells between 1.5 and 5; there have been many cases of enhanced radiation events possibly related to effects from radiation belt particles. Our work identifies that the combined effects of an enhanced radiation environment in this L shell range are typically 15% higher than the GCR background. We also identify applications for the equations representing the Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety and ARMAS databases. They include (i) effective dose rate climatology in comparison with measured weather variability and (ii) climatological and statistical weather nowcasting and forecasting. These databases may especially help predict the radiation environment for regional air traffic management, for airport overflight operations, and for air carrier route operations of individual aircraft.

High correlations between temperature and nitric oxide in the thermosphere.

Obtaining accurate predictions of the neutral density in the thermosphere has been a long-standing problem. During geomagnetic storms the auroral heating in the polar ionospheres quickly raises the temperature of the thermosphere, resulting in higher neutral densities that exert a greater drag force on objects in low Earth orbit. Rapid increases and decreases in the temperature and density may occur within a couple days. A key parameter in the thermosphere is the total amount of nitric oxide (NO). The production of NO is accelerated by the auroral heating, and since NO is an efficient radiator of thermal energy, higher concentrations of this molecule accelerate the rate at which the thermosphere cools. This paper describes an improved technique that calculates changes in the global temperature of the thermosphere. Starting from an empirical model of the Poynting flux into the ionosphere, a set of differential equations derives the minimum, global value of the exospheric temperature, which can be used in a neutral density model to calculate the global values. The relative variations in NO content are used to obtain more accurate cooling rates. Comparisons with the global rate of NO emissions that are measured with the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry instrument show that there is very good agreement with the predicted values. The NO emissions correlate highly with the total auroral heating that has been integrated over time. We also show that the NO emissions are highly correlated with thermospheric temperature, as well as indices of solar extreme ultraviolet radiation.