The genomic landscape of 2,023 colorectal cancers.

Colorectal carcinoma (CRC) is a common cause of mortality1, but a comprehensive description of its genomic landscape is lacking2-9. Here we perform whole-genome sequencing of 2,023 CRC samples from participants in the UK 100,000 Genomes Project, thereby providing a highly detailed somatic mutational landscape of this cancer. Integrated analyses identify more than 250 putative CRC driver genes, many not previously implicated in CRC or other cancers, including several recurrent changes outside the coding genome. We extend the molecular pathways involved in CRC development, define four new common subgroups of microsatellite-stable CRC based on genomic features and show that these groups have independent prognostic associations. We also characterize several rare molecular CRC subgroups, some with potential clinical relevance, including cancers with both microsatellite and chromosomal instability. We demonstrate a spectrum of mutational profiles across the colorectum, which reflect aetiological differences. These include the role of Escherichia colipks+ colibactin in rectal cancers10 and the importance of the SBS93 signature11-13, which suggests that diet or smoking is a risk factor. Immune-escape driver mutations14 are near-ubiquitous in hypermutant tumours and occur in about half of microsatellite-stable CRCs, often in the form of HLA copy number changes. Many driver mutations are actionable, including those associated with rare subgroups (for example, BRCA1 and IDH1), highlighting the role of whole-genome sequencing in optimizing patient care.

Genomic Evolution and Transcriptional Changes in the Evolution of Prostate Cancer into Neuroendocrine and Ductal Carcinoma Types.

Prostate cancer is typically of acinar adenocarcinoma type but can occasionally present as neuroendocrine and/or ductal type carcinoma. These are associated with clinically aggressive disease, and the former often arises on a background of androgen deprivation therapy, although it can also arise de novo. Two prostate cancer cases were sequenced by exome capture from archival tissue. Case 1 was de novo small cell neuroendocrine carcinoma and ductal adenocarcinoma with three longitudinal samples over 5 years. Case 2 was a single time point after the development of treatment-related neuroendocrine prostate carcinoma. Case 1 showed whole genome doubling in all samples and focal amplification of AR in all samples except the first time point. Phylogenetic analysis revealed a common ancestry for ductal and small cell carcinoma. Case 2 showed 13q loss (involving RB1) in both adenocarcinoma and small cell carcinoma regions, and 3p gain, 4p loss, and 17p loss (involving TP53) in the latter. By using highly curated samples, we demonstrate for the first time that small-cell neuroendocrine and ductal prostatic carcinoma can have a common ancestry. We highlight whole genome doubling in a patient with prostate cancer relapse, reinforcing its poor prognostic nature.

Disease consequences of higher adiposity uncoupled from its adverse metabolic effects using Mendelian randomisation.

Background: Some individuals living with obesity may be relatively metabolically healthy, whilst others suffer from multiple conditions that may be linked to adverse metabolic effects or other factors. The extent to which the adverse metabolic component of obesity contributes to disease compared to the non-metabolic components is often uncertain. We aimed to use Mendelian randomisation (MR) and specific genetic variants to separately test the causal roles of higher adiposity with and without its adverse metabolic effects on diseases. Methods: We selected 37 chronic diseases associated with obesity and genetic variants associated with different aspects of excess weight. These genetic variants included those associated with metabolically 'favourable adiposity' (FA) and 'unfavourable adiposity' (UFA) that are both associated with higher adiposity but with opposite effects on metabolic risk. We used these variants and two sample MR to test the effects on the chronic diseases. Results: MR identified two sets of diseases. First, 11 conditions where the metabolic effect of higher adiposity is the likely primary cause of the disease. Here, MR with the FA and UFA genetics showed opposing effects on risk of disease: coronary artery disease, peripheral artery disease, hypertension, stroke, type 2 diabetes, polycystic ovary syndrome, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, chronic kidney disease, renal cancer, and gout. Second, 9 conditions where the non-metabolic effects of excess weight (e.g. mechanical effect) are likely a cause. Here, MR with the FA genetics, despite leading to lower metabolic risk, and MR with the UFA genetics, both indicated higher disease risk: osteoarthritis, rheumatoid arthritis, osteoporosis, gastro-oesophageal reflux disease, gallstones, adult-onset asthma, psoriasis, deep vein thrombosis, and venous thromboembolism. Conclusions: Our results assist in understanding the consequences of higher adiposity uncoupled from its adverse metabolic effects, including the risks to individuals with high body mass index who may be relatively metabolically healthy. Funding: Diabetes UK, UK Medical Research Council, World Cancer Research Fund, National Cancer Institute.

Phenome-wide association study (PheWAS) of colorectal cancer risk SNP effects on health outcomes in UK Biobank.

BACKGROUND: Associations between colorectal cancer (CRC) and other health outcomes have been reported, but these may be subject to biases, or due to limitations of observational studies. METHODS: We set out to determine whether genetic predisposition to CRC is also associated with the risk of other phenotypes. Under the phenome-wide association study (PheWAS) and tree-structured phenotypic model (TreeWAS), we studied 334,385 unrelated White British individuals (excluding CRC patients) from the UK Biobank cohort. We generated a polygenic risk score (PRS) from CRC genome-wide association studies as a measure of CRC risk. We performed sensitivity analyses to test the robustness of the results and searched the Danish Disease Trajectory Browser (DTB) to replicate the observed associations. RESULTS: Eight PheWAS phenotypes and 21 TreeWAS nodes were associated with CRC genetic predisposition by PheWAS and TreeWAS, respectively. The PheWAS detected associations were from neoplasms and digestive system disease group (e.g. benign neoplasm of colon, anal and rectal polyp and diverticular disease). The results from the TreeWAS corroborated the results from the PheWAS. These results were replicated in the observational data within the DTB. CONCLUSIONS: We show that benign colorectal neoplasms share genetic aetiology with CRC using PheWAS and TreeWAS methods. Additionally, CRC genetic predisposition is associated with diverticular disease.

Bidirectional Mendelian randomisation analysis of the relationship between circulating vitamin D concentration and colorectal cancer risk.

Epidemiological evidence is consistent with a protective effect of vitamin D against colorectal cancer (CRC), but the observed strong associations are open to confounders and potential reverse causation. Previous Mendelian randomisation (MR) studies were limited by poor genetic instruments and inadequate statistical power. Moreover, whether genetically higher CRC risk can influence vitamin D level, namely the reverse causation, still remains unknown. Herein, we report the first bidirectional MR study. We employed 110 newly identified genetic variants as proxies for vitamin D to obtain unconfounded effect estimates on CRC risk in 26 397 CRC cases and 41 481 controls of European ancestry. To test for reserve causation, we estimated effects of 115 CRC-risk variants on vitamin D level among 417 580 participants from the UK Biobank. The causal association was estimated using the random-effect inverse-variance weighted (IVW) method. We found no significant causal effect of vitamin D on CRC risk [IVW estimate odds ratio: 0.97, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.88-1.07, P = .565]. Similarly, no significant reverse causal association was identified between genetically increased CRC risk and vitamin D levels (IVW estimate ß: -0.002, 95% CI = -0.008 to 0.004, P = .543). Stratified analysis by tumour sites did not identify significant causal associations in either direction between vitamin D and colon or rectal cancer. Despite the improved statistical power of this study, we found no evidence of causal association of either direction between circulating vitamin D and CRC risk. Significant associations reported by observational studies may be primarily driven by unidentified confounders.

Genetically predicted physical activity levels are associated with lower colorectal cancer risk: a Mendelian randomisation study.

BACKGROUND: We conducted a Mendelian randomisation (MR) study to investigate whether physical activity (PA) causes a reduction of colorectal cancer risk and to understand the contributions of effects mediated through changes in body fat. METHODS: Common genetic variants associated with self-reported moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA), acceleration vector magnitude PA (AMPA) and sedentary time were used as instrumental variables. To control for confounding effects of obesity, we included instrumental variables for body mass index (BMI), body fat percentage, waist circumference and arm, trunk and leg fat ratios. We analysed the effect of these instrumental variables in a colorectal cancer genome-wide association study comprising 31,197 cases and 61,770 controls of European ancestry by applying two-sample and multivariable MR study designs. RESULTS: We found decreased colorectal cancer risk for genetically represented measures of MVPA and AMPA that were additional to effects mediated through genetic measures of obesity. Odds ratio and 95% confidence interval (CI) per standard deviation increase in MVPA and AMPA was 0.56 (0.31, 1.01) and 0.60 (0.41, 0.88), respectively. No association has been found between sedentary time and colorectal cancer risk. The proportion of effect mediated through BMI was 2% (95% CI: 0, 14) and 32% (95% CI: 12, 46) for MVPA and AMPA, respectively. CONCLUSION: These findings provide strong evidence to reinforce public health measures on preventing colorectal cancer that promote PA at a population level regardless of body fatness.

Young-onset colorectal cancer is associated with a personal history of type 2 diabetes.

BACKGROUND: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is rising in incidence in young adults, and this observation is currently unexplained. We investigated whether having a personal history of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D) was a potential risk factor for young-onset colorectal cancer (YOCRC). METHODS: The South Australian Young Onset (SAYO) CRC study is a series of young adults with CRC below age 55. Ninety unrelated YOCRC cases were recruited to the study. Personal history and detailed family history of T2D were obtained at face-to-face interview and confirmed from medical records. Whole exome sequencing was conducted on germline DNA from each CRC case. Controls for personal history studies of T2D were 240 patients with proven clear colonoscopies and no known CRC predispositions. RESULTS: The median age of YOCRC cases was 44 years (18-54) and of controls was 45 years (18-54), and 53% of both cases and controls were females (P = 0.99). Left-sided (distal) CRC was seen in 67/89 (75%) of cases. A personal history of T2D was confirmed in 17/90 (19%) YOCRC patients compared with controls (12/240, 5%; P < 0.001; odds ratio = 4.4; 95% confidence interval, 2.0-9.7). YOCRC patients frequently reported at least one first-degree relative with T2D (32/85, 38%). Ten of 87 (12%) of YOCRC cases had CRC-related pathogenic germline variants, however, no pathogenic variants in familial diabetes-associated genes were seen. CONCLUSIONS: Though the mechanism remains unclear, our observations suggest that there is enrichment for personal history of T2D in YOCRC patients. IMPACT: A diagnosis of T2D could therefore potentially identify a subset of young adults at increased risk for CRC and in whom early screening might be appropriate.

A sensitive and affordable multiplex RT-qPCR assay for SARS-CoV-2 detection.

With the ongoing COVID-19 (Coronavirus Disease 2019) pandemic, caused by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2), there is a need for sensitive, specific, and affordable diagnostic tests to identify infected individuals, not all of whom are symptomatic. The most sensitive test involves the detection of viral RNA using RT-qPCR (quantitative reverse transcription PCR), with many commercial kits now available for this purpose. However, these are expensive, and supply of such kits in sufficient numbers cannot always be guaranteed. We therefore developed a multiplex assay using well-established SARS-CoV-2 targets alongside a human cellular control (RPP30) and a viral spike-in control (Phocine Herpes Virus 1 [PhHV-1]), which monitor sample quality and nucleic acid extraction efficiency, respectively. Here, we establish that this test performs as well as widely used commercial assays, but at substantially reduced cost. Furthermore, we demonstrate >1,000-fold variability in material routinely collected by combined nose and throat swabbing and establish a statistically significant correlation between the detected level of human and SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acids. The inclusion of the human control probe in our assay therefore provides a quantitative measure of sample quality that could help reduce false-negative rates. We demonstrate the feasibility of establishing a robust RT-qPCR assay at approximately 10% of the cost of equivalent commercial assays, which could benefit low-resource environments and make high-volume testing affordable.

Pervasive chromosomal instability and karyotype order in tumour evolution.

Chromosomal instability in cancer consists of dynamic changes to the number and structure of chromosomes1,2. The resulting diversity in somatic copy number alterations (SCNAs) may provide the variation necessary for tumour evolution1,3,4. Here we use multi-sample phasing and SCNA analysis of 1,421 samples from 394 tumours across 22 tumour types to show that continuous chromosomal instability results in pervasive SCNA heterogeneity. Parallel evolutionary events, which cause disruption in the same genes (such as BCL9, MCL1, ARNT (also known as HIF1B), TERT and MYC) within separate subclones, were present in 37% of tumours. Most recurrent losses probably occurred before whole-genome doubling, that was found as a clonal event in 49% of tumours. However, loss of heterozygosity at the human leukocyte antigen (HLA) locus and loss of chromosome 8p to a single haploid copy recurred at substantial subclonal frequencies, even in tumours with whole-genome doubling, indicating ongoing karyotype remodelling. Focal amplifications that affected chromosomes 1q21 (which encompasses BCL9, MCL1 and ARNT), 5p15.33 (TERT), 11q13.3 (CCND1), 19q12 (CCNE1) and 8q24.1 (MYC) were frequently subclonal yet appeared to be clonal within single samples. Analysis of an independent series of 1,024 metastatic samples revealed that 13 focal SCNAs were enriched in metastatic samples, including gains in chromosome 8q24.1 (encompassing MYC) in clear cell renal cell carcinoma and chromosome 11q13.3 (encompassing CCND1) in HER2+ breast cancer. Chromosomal instability may enable the continuous selection of SCNAs, which are established as ordered events that often occur in parallel, throughout tumour evolution.

Prediction of colorectal cancer risk based on profiling with common genetic variants.

Increasing numbers of common genetic variants associated with colorectal cancer (CRC) have been identified. Our study aimed to determine whether risk prediction based on common genetic variants might enable stratification for CRC risk. Meta-analysis of 11 genome-wide association studies comprising 16 871 cases and 26 328 controls was performed to capture CRC susceptibility variants. Genetic prediction models with several candidate polygenic risk scores (PRSs) were generated from Scottish CRC case-control studies (6478 cases and 11 043 controls) and the score with the best performance was then tested in UK Biobank (UKBB) (4800 cases and 20 287 controls). A weighted PRS of 116 CRC single nucleotide polymorphisms (wPRS116 ) was found with the best predictive performance, reporting a c-statistics of 0.60 and an odds ratio (OR) of 1.46 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.41-1.50, per SD increase) in Scottish data set. The predictive performance of this wPRS116 was consistently validated in UKBB data set with c-statistics of 0.61 and an OR of 1.49 (95% CI = 1.44-1.54, per SD increase). Modeling the levels of PRS with age and sex in the general UK population shows that employing genetic risk profiling can achieve a moderate degree of risk discrimination that could be helpful to identify a subpopulation with higher CRC risk due to genetic susceptibility.

Why is cancer not more common? A changing microenvironment may help to explain why, and suggests strategies for anti-cancer therapy.

One of the great unsolved puzzles in cancer biology is not why cancers occur, but rather explaining why so few cancers occur compared with the theoretical number that could occur, given the number of progenitor cells in the body and the normal mutation rate. We hypothesized that a contributory explanation is that the tumour microenvironment (TME) is not fixed due to factors such as immune cell infiltration, and that this could impair the ability of neoplastic cells to retain a high enough fitness to become a cancer. The TME has implicitly been assumed to be static in most cancer evolution models, and we therefore developed a mathematical model of spatial cancer evolution assuming that the TME, and thus the optimum cancer phenotype, changes over time. Based on simulations, we show how cancer cell populations adapt to diverse changing TME conditions and fitness landscapes. Compared with static TMEs, which generate neutral dynamics, changing TMEs lead to complex adaptations with characteristic spatio-temporal heterogeneity involving variable fitness effects of driver mutations, subclonal mixing, subclonal competition and phylogeny patterns. In many cases, cancer cell populations fail to grow or undergo spontaneous regression, and even extinction. Our analyses predict that cancer evolution in a changing TME is challenging, and can help to explain why cancer is neither inevitable nor as common as expected. Should cancer driver mutations with effects dependent of the TME exist, they are likely to be selected. Anti-cancer prevention and treatment strategies based on changing the TME are feasible and potentially effective.

Author Correction: The effects of mutational processes and selection on driver mutations across cancer types.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

Measuring single cell divisions in human tissues from multi-region sequencing data.

Both normal tissue development and cancer growth are driven by a branching process of cell division and mutation accumulation that leads to intra-tissue genetic heterogeneity. However, quantifying somatic evolution in humans remains challenging. Here, we show that multi-sample genomic data from a single time point of normal and cancer tissues contains information on single-cell divisions. We present a new theoretical framework that, applied to whole-genome sequencing data of healthy tissue and cancer, allows inferring the mutation rate and the cell survival/death rate per division. On average, we found that cells accumulate 1.14 mutations per cell division in healthy haematopoiesis and 1.37 mutations per division in brain development. In both tissues, cell survival was maximal during early development. Analysis of 131 biopsies from 16 tumours showed 4 to 100 times increased mutation rates compared to healthy development and substantial inter-patient variation of cell survival/death rates.

Mutational Signature Analysis Reveals NTHL1 Deficiency to Cause a Multi-tumor Phenotype.

Biallelic germline mutations affecting NTHL1 predispose carriers to adenomatous polyposis and colorectal cancer, but the complete phenotype is unknown. We describe 29 individuals carrying biallelic germline NTHL1 mutations from 17 families, of which 26 developed one (n = 10) or multiple (n = 16) malignancies in 14 different tissues. An unexpected high breast cancer incidence was observed in female carriers (60%). Mutational signature analysis of 14 tumors from 7 organs revealed that NTHL1 deficiency underlies the main mutational process in all but one of the tumors (93%). These results reveal NTHL1 as a multi-tumor predisposition gene with a high lifetime risk for extracolonic cancers and a typical mutational signature observed across tumor types, which can assist in the recognition of this syndrome.

Mendelian randomisation: A powerful and inexpensive method for identifying and excluding non-genetic risk factors for colorectal cancer.

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most common cancer in economically developed countries and a major cause of cancer-related mortality. The importance of lifestyle and diet as major determinants of CRC risk is suggested by differences in CRC incidence between countries and in migration studies. Previous observational epidemiological studies have identified associations between modifiable environmental risk factors and CRC, but these studies can be susceptible to reverse causation and confounding, and their results can therefore conflict. Mendelian randomisation (MR) analysis represents an approach complementary to conventional observational studies examining associations between exposures and disease. The MR strategy employs allelic variants as instrumental variables (IVs), which act as proxies for non-genetic exposures. These allelic variants are randomly assigned during meiosis and can therefore inform on life-long exposure, whilst not being subject to reverse causation. In previous studies MR frameworks have associated several modifiable factors with CRC risk, including adiposity, hyperlipidaemia, fatty acid profile and alcohol consumption. In this review we detail the use of MR to investigate and discover CRC risk factors, and its future applications.

Evolutionary history of human colitis-associated colorectal cancer.

OBJECTIVE: IBD confers an increased lifetime risk of developing colorectal cancer (CRC), and colitis-associated CRC (CA-CRC) is molecularly distinct from sporadic CRC (S-CRC). Here we have dissected the evolutionary history of CA-CRC using multiregion sequencing. DESIGN: Exome sequencing was performed on fresh-frozen multiple regions of carcinoma, adjacent non-cancerous mucosa and blood from 12 patients with CA-CRC (n=55 exomes), and key variants were validated with orthogonal methods. Genome-wide copy number profiling was performed using single nucleotide polymorphism arrays and low-pass whole genome sequencing on archival non-dysplastic mucosa (n=9), low-grade dysplasia (LGD; n=30), high-grade dysplasia (HGD; n=13), mixed LGD/HGD (n=7) and CA-CRC (n=19). Phylogenetic trees were reconstructed, and evolutionary analysis used to reveal the temporal sequence of events leading to CA-CRC. RESULTS: 10/12 tumours were microsatellite stable with a median mutation burden of 3.0 single nucleotide alterations (SNA) per Mb, ~20% higher than S-CRC (2.5 SNAs/Mb), and consistent with elevated ageing-associated mutational processes. Non-dysplastic mucosa had considerable mutation burden (median 47 SNAs), including mutations shared with the neighbouring CA-CRC, indicating a precancer mutational field. CA-CRCs were often near triploid (40%) or near tetraploid (20%) and phylogenetic analysis revealed that copy number alterations (CNAs) began to accrue in non-dysplastic bowel, but the LGD/HGD transition often involved a punctuated 'catastrophic' CNA increase. CONCLUSIONS: Evolutionary genomic analysis revealed precancer clones bearing extensive SNAs and CNAs, with progression to cancer involving a dramatic accrual of CNAs at HGD. Detection of the cancerised field is an encouraging prospect for surveillance, but punctuated evolution may limit the window for early detection.

The evolutionary landscape of colorectal tumorigenesis.

The evolutionary events that cause colorectal adenomas (benign) to progress to carcinomas (malignant) remain largely undetermined. Using multi-region genome and exome sequencing of 24 benign and malignant colorectal tumours, we investigate the evolutionary fitness landscape occupied by these neoplasms. Unlike carcinomas, advanced adenomas frequently harbour sub-clonal driver mutations-considered to be functionally important in the carcinogenic process-that have not swept to fixation, and have relatively high genetic heterogeneity. Carcinomas are distinguished from adenomas by widespread aneusomies that are usually clonal and often accrue in a 'punctuated' fashion. We conclude that adenomas evolve across an undulating fitness landscape, whereas carcinomas occupy a sharper fitness peak, probably owing to stabilizing selection.

Exploring causality in the association between circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D and colorectal cancer risk: a large Mendelian randomisation study.

BACKGROUND: Whilst observational studies establish that lower plasma 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25-OHD) levels are associated with higher risk of colorectal cancer (CRC), establishing causality has proven challenging. Since vitamin D is modifiable, these observations have substantial clinical and public health implications. Indeed, many health agencies already recommend supplemental vitamin D. Here, we explore causality in a large Mendelian randomisation (MR) study using an improved genetic instrument for circulating 25-OHD. METHODS: We developed a weighted genetic score for circulating 25-OHD using six genetic variants that we recently reported to be associated with circulating 25-OHD in a large genome-wide association study (GWAS) meta-analysis. Using this score as instrumental variable in MR analyses, we sought to determine whether circulating 25-OHD is causally linked with CRC risk. We conducted MR analysis using individual-level data from 10,725 CRC cases and 30,794 controls (Scotland, UK Biobank and Croatia). We then applied estimates from meta-analysis of 11 GWAS of CRC risk (18,967 cases; 48,168 controls) in a summary statistics MR approach. RESULTS: The new genetic score for 25-OHD was strongly associated with measured plasma 25-OHD levels in 2821 healthy Scottish controls (P = 1.47 × 10- 11), improving upon previous genetic instruments (F-statistic 46.0 vs. 13.0). However, individual-level MR revealed no association between 25-OHD score and CRC risk (OR 1.03/unit log-transformed circulating 25-OHD, 95% CI 0.51-2.07, P = 0.93). Similarly, we found no evidence for a causal relationship between 25-OHD and CRC risk using summary statistics MR analysis (OR 0.91, 95% CI 0.69-1.19, P = 0.48). CONCLUSIONS: Despite the scale of this study and employing an improved score capturing more of the genetic contribution to circulating 25-OHD, we found no evidence for a causal relationship between circulating 25-OHD and CRC risk. Although the magnitude of effect for vitamin D suggested by observational studies can confidently be excluded, smaller effects sizes and non-linear relationships remain plausible. Circulating vitamin D may be a CRC biomarker, but a causal effect on CRC risk remains unproven.

The effects of mutational processes and selection on driver mutations across cancer types.

Epidemiological evidence has long associated environmental mutagens with increased cancer risk. However, links between specific mutation-causing processes and the acquisition of individual driver mutations have remained obscure. Here we have used public cancer sequencing data from 11,336 cancers of various types to infer the independent effects of mutation and selection on the set of driver mutations in a cancer type. First, we detect associations between a range of mutational processes, including those linked to smoking, ageing, APOBEC and DNA mismatch repair (MMR) and the presence of key driver mutations across cancer types. Second, we quantify differential selection between well-known alternative driver mutations, including differences in selection between distinct mutant residues in the same gene. These results show that while mutational processes have a large role in determining which driver mutations are present in a cancer, the role of selection frequently dominates.