Breast cancer risk assessment for prescription of Menopausal Hormone Therapy in women who have a family history of breast cancer.

Background Menopausal Hormone Therapy (MHT) can alleviate menopausal symptoms but is associated with increased risk of breast cancer (BC). MHT prescription should be preceded by individualised risk/benefit evaluation; however, data outlining the impact of family history alongside different MHT therapeutic approaches are lacking. Aim To quantify the risks associated with MHT use in women with varying BC family histories of i) developing and ii) dying from BC. Design and setting An epidemiological modelling study (UK women). Method We used i) background risks of BC by age and family history, ii) relative risks for BC associated with MHT use, and iii) 10-year BC-specific net mortality rates to model the risk of developing and dying from BC between the ages of 50 and 80 in women with four different BC family history profiles: 'average', 'modest', 'intermediate', and 'strong'. Results For a woman of 'average' family history taking no MHT, the cumulative BC risk (age 50-80) is 9.8%, and the risk of dying from the BC is 1.7%. Five years' exposure to combined-cyclical MHT (age 50-55) increases these risks to 11.0% and 1.8%, respectively. For a woman with a 'strong' family history taking no MHT, the cumulative BC risk is 19.6%, and the risk of dying is 3.2%. With 5 years of MHT (age 50-55), this increases to 22.4% and 3.5%. Conclusion Both family history and MHT are associated with increased risk of BC. Estimates of the risks associated with MHT for women with different family histories can support decision-making around MHT prescription.

Clinical practice guidelines for the diagnosis and surveillance of BAP1 tumour predisposition syndrome.

BRCA1-associated protein-1 (BAP1) is a recognised tumour suppressor gene. Germline BAP1 pathogenic/likely pathogenic variants are associated with predisposition to multiple tumours, including uveal melanoma, malignant pleural and peritoneal mesothelioma, renal cell carcinoma and specific non-malignant neoplasms of the skin, as part of the autosomal dominant BAP1-tumour predisposition syndrome. The overall lifetime risk for BAP1 carriers to develop at least one BAP1-associated tumour is up to 85%, although due to ascertainment bias, current estimates of risk are likely to be overestimated. As for many rare cancer predisposition syndromes, there is limited scientific evidence to support the utility of surveillance and, therefore, management recommendations for BAP1 carriers are based on expert opinion. To date, European recommendations for BAP1 carriers have not been published but are necessary due to the emerging phenotype of this recently described syndrome and increased identification of BAP1 carriers via large gene panels or tumour sequencing. To address this, the Clinical Guideline Working Group of the CanGene-CanVar project in the United Kingdom invited European collaborators to collaborate to develop guidelines to harmonize surveillance programmes within Europe. Recommendations with respect to BAP1 testing and surveillance were achieved following literature review and Delphi survey completed by a core group and an extended expert group of 34 European specialists including Geneticists, Ophthalmologists, Oncologists, Dermatologists and Pathologists. It is recognised that these largely evidence-based but pragmatic recommendations will evolve over time as further data from research collaborations informs the phenotypic spectrum and surveillance outcomes.

Reclassification of clinically-detected sequence variants: Framework for genetic clinicians and clinical scientists by CanVIG-UK (Cancer Variant Interpretation Group UK).

PURPOSE: Variant classifications may change over time, driven by emergence of fresh or contradictory evidence or evolution in weighing or combination of evidence items. For variant classifications above the actionability threshold, which is classification of likely pathogenic or pathogenic, clinical actions may be irreversible, such as risk-reducing surgery or prenatal interventions. Variant reclassification up or down across the actionability threshold can therefore have significant clinical consequences. Laboratory approaches to variant reinterpretation and reclassification vary widely. METHODS: Cancer Variant Interpretation Group UK is a multidisciplinary network of clinical scientists and genetic clinicians from across the 24 Molecular Diagnostic Laboratories and Clinical Genetics Services of the United Kingdom (NHS) and Republic of Ireland. We undertook surveys, polls, and national meetings of Cancer Variant Interpretation Group UK to evaluate opinions about clinical and laboratory management regarding variant reclassification. RESULTS: We generated a consensus framework on variant reclassification applicable to cancer susceptibility genes and other clinical areas, which provides explicit recommendations for clinical and laboratory management of variant reclassification scenarios on the basis of the nature of the new evidence, the magnitude of evidence shift, and the final classification score. CONCLUSION: In this framework, clinical and laboratory resources are targeted for maximal clinical effect and minimal patient harm, as appropriate to all resource-constrained health care settings.

Quantifying prediction of pathogenicity for within-codon concordance (PM5) using 7541 functional classifications of BRCA1 and MSH2 missense variants.

PURPOSE: Conditions and thresholds applied for evidence weighting of within-codon concordance (PM5) for pathogenicity vary widely between laboratories and expert groups. Because of the sparseness of available clinical classifications, there is little evidence for variation in practice. METHODS: We used as a truthset 7541 dichotomous functional classifications of BRCA1 and MSH2, spanning 311 codons of BRCA1 and 918 codons of MSH2, generated from large-scale functional assays that have been shown to correlate excellently with clinical classifications. We assessed PM5 at 5 stringencies with incorporation of 8 in silico tools. For each analysis, we quantified a positive likelihood ratio (pLR, true positive rate/false positive rate), the predictive value of PM5-lookup in ClinVar compared with the functional truthset. RESULTS: pLR was 16.3 (10.6-24.9) for variants for which there was exactly 1 additional colocated deleterious variant on ClinVar, and the variant under examination was equally or more damaging when analyzed using BLOSUM62. pLR was 71.5 (37.8-135.3) for variants for which there were 2 or more colocated deleterious ClinVar variants, and the variant under examination was equally or more damaging than at least 1 colocated variant when analyzed using BLOSUM62. CONCLUSION: These analyses support the graded use of PM5, with potential to use it at higher evidence weighting where more stringent criteria are met.

Quantifying evidence toward pathogenicity for rare phenotypes: The case of succinate dehydrogenase genes, SDHB and SDHD.

PURPOSE: The weight of the evidence to attach to observation of a novel rare missense variant in SDHB or SDHD in individuals with the rare neuroendocrine tumors, pheochromocytomas and paragangliomas (PCC/PGL), is uncertain. METHODS: We compared the frequency of SDHB and SDHD very rare missense variants (VRMVs) in 6328 and 5847 cases of PCC/PGL, respectively, with that of population controls to generate a pan-gene VRMV likelihood ratio (LR). Via windowing analysis, we measured regional enrichments of VRMVs to calculate the domain-specific VRMV-LR (DS-VRMV-LR). We also calculated subphenotypic LRs for variant pathogenicity for various clinical, histologic, and molecular features. RESULTS: We estimated the pan-gene VRMV-LR to be 76.2 (54.8-105.9) for SDHB and 14.8 (8.7-25.0) for SDHD. Clustering analysis revealed an SDHB enriched region (ɑɑ 177-260, P = .001) for which the DS-VRMV-LR was 127.2 (64.9-249.4) and an SDHD enriched region (ɑɑ 70-114, P = .000003) for which the DS-VRMV-LR was 33.9 (14.8-77.8). Subphenotypic LRs exceeded 6 for invasive disease (SDHB), head-and-neck disease (SDHD), multiple tumors (SDHD), family history of PCC/PGL, loss of SDHB staining on immunohistochemistry, and succinate-to-fumarate ratio >97 (SDHB, SDHD). CONCLUSION: Using methodology generalizable to other gene-phenotype dyads, the LRs relating to rarity and phenotypic specificity for a single observation in PCC/PGL of a SDHB/SDHD VRMV can afford substantial evidence toward pathogenicity.

Prioritisation by FIT to mitigate the impact of delays in the 2-week wait colorectal cancer referral pathway during the COVID-19 pandemic: a UK modelling study.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the impact of faecal immunochemical testing (FIT) prioritisation to mitigate the impact of delays in the colorectal cancer (CRC) urgent diagnostic (2-week-wait (2WW)) pathway consequent from the COVID-19 pandemic. DESIGN: We modelled the reduction in CRC survival and life years lost resultant from per-patient delays of 2-6 months in the 2WW pathway. We stratified by age group, individual-level benefit in CRC survival versus age-specific nosocomial COVID-19-related fatality per referred patient undergoing colonoscopy. We modelled mitigation strategies using thresholds of FIT triage of 2, 10 and 150 µg Hb/g to prioritise 2WW referrals for colonoscopy. To construct the underlying models, we employed 10-year net CRC survival for England 2008-2017, 2WW pathway CRC case and referral volumes and per-day-delay HRs generated from observational studies of diagnosis-to-treatment interval. RESULTS: Delay of 2/4/6 months across all 11 266 patients with CRC diagnosed per typical year via the 2WW pathway were estimated to result in 653/1419/2250 attributable deaths and loss of 9214/20 315/32 799 life years. Risk-benefit from urgent investigatory referral is particularly sensitive to nosocomial COVID-19 rates for patients aged >60. Prioritisation out of delay for the 18% of symptomatic referrals with FIT >10 µg Hb/g would avoid 89% of these deaths attributable to presentational/diagnostic delay while reducing immediate requirement for colonoscopy by >80%. CONCLUSIONS: Delays in the pathway to CRC diagnosis and treatment have potential to cause significant mortality and loss of life years. FIT triage of symptomatic patients in primary care could streamline access to colonoscopy, reduce delays for true-positive CRC cases and reduce nosocomial COVID-19 mortality in older true-negative 2WW referrals. However, this strategy offers benefit only in short-term rationalisation of limited endoscopy services: the appreciable false-negative rate of FIT in symptomatic patients means most colonoscopies will still be required.