Blind testing of shoreline evolution models.

Beaches around the world continuously adjust to daily and seasonal changes in wave and tide conditions, which are themselves changing over longer time-scales. Different approaches to predict multi-year shoreline evolution have been implemented; however, robust and reliable predictions of shoreline evolution are still problematic even in short-term scenarios (shorter than decadal). Here we show results of a modelling competition, where 19 numerical models (a mix of established shoreline models and machine learning techniques) were tested using data collected for Tairua beach, New Zealand with 18 years of daily averaged alongshore shoreline position and beach rotation (orientation) data obtained from a camera system. In general, traditional shoreline models and machine learning techniques were able to reproduce shoreline changes during the calibration period (1999-2014) for normal conditions but some of the model struggled to predict extreme and fast oscillations. During the forecast period (unseen data, 2014-2017), both approaches showed a decrease in models' capability to predict the shoreline position. This was more evident for some of the machine learning algorithms. A model ensemble performed better than individual models and enables assessment of uncertainties in model architecture. Research-coordinated approaches (e.g., modelling competitions) can fuel advances in predictive capabilities and provide a forum for the discussion about the advantages/disadvantages of available models.

Nondestructive 3D Imaging and Quantification of Hydrated Biofilm-Sediment Aggregates Using X-ray Microcomputed Tomography.

Biofilm-sediment aggregate (BSA) contains a high water content, either within internal pores and channels or bound by extracellular polymeric substances (EPS) forming a highly hydrated biofilm matrix. Desiccation of BSAs alters the biofilm morphology and thus the physical characteristics of porous media, such as the binding matrix within BSA and internal pore geometry. Observing BSAs in their naturally hydrated form is essential but hampered due to the lack of techniques for imaging and discerning hydrated materials. Generally, imagery techniques (scanning electron microscopy (SEM), transmission electron microscopy (TEM), and focused ion beam nanotomography (FIB-nt)) involve the desiccation of BSAs (freeze-drying or acetone dehydration) or prevent differentiation between BSA components such as inorganic particles and pore water (confocal laser scanning microscopic (CLSM)). Here, we propose a novel methodology that simultaneously achieves the 3D visualization and quantification of BSAs and their components in their hydrated form at a submicron resolution using X-ray microcomputed tomography (µ-CT). It enables the high-resolution detection of comparable morphology of multiphase components within a hydrated aggregate: each single inorganic particle and the hydrated biofilm matrix. This allows the estimation of aggregate density and the illustration of biofilm-sediment binding matrix. This information provides valuable insights into investigations of the transport of BSAs and aggregate-associated sediment particles, contaminants (such as microplastics), organic carbon, and their impacts on aquatic biogeochemical cycling.

Test of a behavior-based individual-based model: response of shorebird mortality to habitat loss.

In behavior-based individual-based models (IBMs), demographic functions are emergent properties of the model and are not built into the model structure itself, as is the case with the more widely used demography-based IBMs. Our behavior-based IBM represents the physiology and behavioral decision making of individual animals and, from that, predicts how many survive the winter nonbreeding season, an important component of fitness. This paper provides the first test of such a model by predicting the change in winter mortality of a charadriid shorebird following removal of intertidal feeding habitat, the main effect of which was to increase bird density. After adjusting one calibration parameter to the level required to replicate the observed mortality rate before habitat loss, the model predicted that mortality would increase by 3.65%, which compares well with the observed increase of 3.17%. The implication that mortality was density-dependent was confirmed by predicting mortality over a range of bird densities. Further simulations showed that the density dependence was due to an increase in both interference and depletion competition as bird density increased. Other simulations suggested that an additional area of mudflat, equivalent to only 10% of the area that had been lost, would be needed by way of mitigation to return mortality to its original level. Being situated at a high shore level with the flow of water in and out impeded by inlet pipes, the mitigating mudflat would be accessible to birds when all mudflats in the estuary were covered at high tide, thus providing the birds with extra feeding time and not just a small replacement mudflat. Apart from providing the first, and confidence-raising, test of a behavior-based IBM, the results suggest (1) that the chosen calibration procedure was effective; (2) that where no new fieldwork is required, and despite being parameter rich, a behavior-based IBM can be parameterized quickly (few weeks), and thus cheaply, because so many of the parameter values can be obtained from the literature and are embedded in the model; and (3) that behavior-based IBMs can be used to explore system behavior (e.g., the role of depletion competition and interference competition in density-dependent mortality).

A preliminary net sediment budget for the Humber Estuary.

The Humber Estuary has been the subject of considerable research activity over recent years. Drawing on results from the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)-funded Land-Ocean Interaction Study (LOIS) and work to underpin the strategic planning of flood defences by the Environment Agency (EA), a preliminary budget of the net sediment exchanges has been developed. The net exchanges are presented in the context of gross movements. The results highlight the fact that the budget is finely balanced, with the net exchanges being very small residuals, one or two orders of magnitude less than the gross exchanges taking place.

Estuarine flooding and managed retreat.

The concentration of industrial, residential and agricultural activity on the lowlands surrounding our estuaries has led to an increasing problem of flood risk in these areas. However, flood hazards have been, in large part, the result of past human interference in the estuary system and as such may be reduced by more enlightened management. This paper examines the problems of flood risk and discusses some of the research that has been conducted into its alleviation. In particular, it concentrates attention on the programme of 'managed retreat' in the UK, which attempts to restore previously reclaimed areas in order to reduce flooding and other hazards of the estuarine system.