A Comparison of Relative-Efficacy Estimate(S) Derived From Both Matching-Adjusted Indirect Comparisons and Standard Anchored Indirect Treatment Comparisons: A Review of Matching-Adjusted Indirect Comparisons.

OBJECTIVES: We present an empirical comparison of relative-efficacy estimate(s) from matching-adjusted indirect comparisons (MAICs) with estimates from corresponding standard anchored indirect treatment comparisons. METHODS: A total of 80 comparisons were identified from 17 publications through a systematic rapid review. A standardized metric that used reported relative treatment efficacy estimates and their associated uncertainty was used to compare the methods across different treatment indications and outcome measures. RESULTS: On aggregate, MAICs presented for connected networks tended to report a more favorable relative-efficacy estimate for the treatment for which individual-level patient data were available relative to the reported indirect treatment comparison estimate. CONCLUSIONS: Although we recognize the importance of MAIC and other population adjustment methods in certain situations, we recommend that results from these analyses are interpreted with caution. Researchers and analysts should carefully consider if MAICs are appropriate where presented and whether MAICs would have added value where omitted.

Cost-utility and value of information analysis of tisagenlecleucel for relapsed/refractory diffuse large B-cell lymphoma in the Irish healthcare setting.

Background: The evidence base of tisagenlecleucel is uncertain. Objective: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of tisagenlecleucel. To conduct expected value of perfect information (EVPI) and partial EVPI (EVPPI) analyses. Study Design: A three-state partitioned survival model. A short-term decision tree partitioned patients in the tisagenlecleucel arm according to infusion status. Survival was extrapolated to 5 years; general population mortality with a standardised mortality ratio was then applied. EVPI and EVPPI were scaled up to population according to the incidence of the decision. Setting: Irish healthcare payer. Participants: Patients with relapsed/refractory diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (R/R DLBCL). Interventions: Tisagenlecleucel versus Salvage Chemotherapy (with or without haematopoietic stem cell transplant). Main Outcome Measure: Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). Population EVPI and EVPPI. Results: At list prices, the ICER was €119,509 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) (incremental costs €218,092; incremental QALYs 1.82). Probability of cost-effectiveness, at a €45,000 per QALY threshold, was 0%. Population EVPI was €0.00. Population EVPI, at the price of tisagenlecleucel that reduced the ICER to €45,000 per QALY, was €3,989,438. Here, survival analysis had the highest population EVPPI (€1,128,053). Conclusion: Tisagenlecleucel is not cost-effective, versus salvage chemotherapy (with or without haematopoietic stem cell transplant), for R/R DLBCL in Ireland. At list prices, further research to decrease decision uncertainty may not be of value.

Tisagenlecleucel for relapsed/refractory acute lymphoblastic leukemia in the Irish healthcare setting: cost-effectiveness and value of information analysis.

OBJECTIVES: This study evaluates the cost-effectiveness of tisagenlecleucel (a CAR T-cell therapy), versus blinatumomab, for the treatment of pediatric and young adult patients with relapsed/refractory acute lymphoblastic leukemia (R/R ALL) in the Irish healthcare setting. The value of conducting further research, to investigate the value of uncertainty associated with the decision problem, is assessed by means of expected value of perfect information (EVPI) and partial EVPI (EVPPI) analyses. METHODS: A three-state partitioned survival model was developed. A short-term decision tree partitioned patients in the tisagenlecleucel arm according to infusion status. Survival was extrapolated to 60 months; general population mortality with a standardized mortality ratio was then applied. Estimated EVPI and EVPPI were scaled up to population according to the incidence of the decision. RESULTS: At list prices, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was EUR 73,086 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) (incremental costs EUR 156,928; incremental QALYs 2.15). The probability of cost-effectiveness, at the willingness-to-pay threshold of EUR 45,000 per QALY, was 16 percent. At this threshold, population EVPI was EUR 314,455; population EVPPI was below EUR 100,000 for each parameter category. CONCLUSIONS: Tisagenlecleucel is not cost effective, versus blinatumomab, for the treatment of pediatric and young adult patients with R/R ALL in Ireland (at list prices). Further research to decrease decision (parameter) uncertainty, at the defined willingness-to-pay threshold, may not be of value. However, there is a high degree of uncertainty underpinning the analysis, which may not be captured by EVPI analysis.

Revision and 90-day mortality following hip arthroplasty in patients with inflammatory arthritis and ankylosing spondylitis enrolled in the National Joint Registry for England and Wales.

AIM: To assess revision rates and postoperative mortality in patients undergoing hip arthroplasty (HA) for inflammatory arthritis compared to hip osteoarthritis (OA). METHODS: The analysis was conducted among cases of HA that were recorded in the National Joint Registry for England and Wales (NJR) between April 2003 and December 2012 and linked to Office for National Statistics mortality records. Procedures were identified where the indication for surgery was listed as seropositive rheumatoid arthritis (RA), ankylosing spondylitis (AS), other inflammatory arthritis (otherIA), or OA. 5-year revision risk and 90-day postoperative mortality according to indication were compared using Cox regression models adjusted for age, sex, American Society of Anaesthesiologists (ASA) grade, year of operation, implant type, and surgical approach. RESULTS: The cohort included 1457 HA procedures conducted for RA, 615 for AS, 1000 for otherIA, and 183,108 for OA. When compared with OA, there was no increased revision risk for any form of inflammatory arthritis (adjusted HRs: RA: 0.93 (0.64-1.35); AS: 1.14 (0.73-1.79); otherIA: 1.08 (0.73-1.59)). Postoperative 90-day mortality was increased for RA when compared with OA (adjusted HR: 2.86 (1.68-4.88)), but not for AS (adjusted HR: 1.56 (0.59-4.18)) or otherIA (adjusted HR: 0.64 (0.16-2.55)). CONCLUSIONS: The revision risk in HA performed for all types of inflammatory arthritis is similar to that for HA performed for OA. The 3-fold increased risk of 90-day mortality in patients with RA compared with OA highlights the need for active management of associated comorbidities in RA patients during the perioperative period.

Estimating the Theoretical Cost Implications of Funding New Drugs Considered Not to Be Cost-Effective.

This study aims to estimate the theoretical excess expenditure that would be incurred by the Irish state-payer, should drugs be reimbursed at their original asking ("list") price rather than at a price at which the drug is considered cost-effective. In Ireland, all new drugs are evaluated by the National Centre for Pharmacoeconomics. For this study, drugs that were submitted by pharmaceutical companies from 2012 to 2017 and considered not cost-effective at list price were reviewed. A total of 43 such drugs met our inclusion criteria, and their pharmacoeconomic evaluations were further assessed. The price at which the drug could be considered cost-effective (cost-effective price) at the upper cost-effectiveness threshold used in Ireland (€ 45 000/quality adjusted life-year) was estimated for 18 drugs with an available cost-effectiveness model. Then, for each drug, the list price and cost-effective price (both per unit) were both individually applied to 1 year of national real-world drug utilization data. This allowed the estimation of the expected expenditures under the assumptions of list price paid and cost-effective price paid. The resulting theoretical excess expenditure, the expenditure at list price minus the expenditure at the cost-effective price, was estimated to be €108.2 million. This estimate is theoretical because of the confidentiality of actual drug prices. The estimation is calculated using the list price and likely overestimates the actual excess expenditure, which would reduce to zero if cost-effective prices are agreed. Nevertheless, this estimate illustrates the importance of a process to assess the value of new drugs so that potential excess drug expenditure is identified.

Understanding the Challenges and Uncertainties of Seroprevalence Studies for SARS-CoV-2.

SARS-CoV-2 continues to widely circulate in populations globally. Underdetection is acknowledged and is problematic when attempting to capture the true prevalence. Seroprevalence studies, where blood samples from a population sample are tested for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies that react to the SARS-CoV-2 virus, are a common method for estimating the proportion of people previously infected with the virus in a given population. However, obtaining reliable estimates from seroprevalence studies is challenging for a number of reasons, and the uncertainty in the results is often overlooked by scientists, policy makers, and the media. This paper reviews the methodological issues that arise in designing these studies, and the main sources of uncertainty that affect the results. We discuss the choice of study population, recruitment of subjects, uncertainty surrounding the accuracy of antibody tests, and the relationship between antibodies and infection over time. Understanding these issues can help the reader to interpret and critically evaluate the results of seroprevalence studies.

Personalized estimation of one-year mortality risk after elective hip or knee arthroplasty for osteoarthritis.

AIMS: To develop and validate patient-centred algorithms that estimate individual risk of death over the first year after elective joint arthroplasty surgery for osteoarthritis. METHODS: A total of 763,213 hip and knee joint arthroplasty episodes recorded in the National Joint Registry for England and Wales (NJR) and 105,407 episodes from the Norwegian Arthroplasty Register were used to model individual mortality risk over the first year after surgery using flexible parametric survival regression. RESULTS: The one-year mortality rates in the NJR were 10.8 and 8.9 per 1,000 patient-years after hip and knee arthroplasty, respectively. The Norwegian mortality rates were 9.1 and 6.0 per 1,000 patient-years, respectively. The strongest predictors of death in the final models were age, sex, body mass index, and American Society of Anesthesiologists grade. Exposure variables related to the intervention, with the exception of knee arthroplasty type, did not add discrimination over patient factors alone. Discrimination was good in both cohorts, with c-indices above 0.76 for the hip and above 0.70 for the knee. Time-dependent Brier scores indicated appropriate estimation of the mortality rate (≤ 0.01, all models). CONCLUSION: Simple demographic and clinical information may be used to calculate an individualized estimation for one-year mortality risk after hip or knee arthroplasty (https://jointcalc.shef.ac.uk). These models may be used to provide patients with an estimate of the risk of mortality after joint arthroplasty. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2020;9(11):808-820.

Coronavirus Disease 2019: Considerations for Health Technology Assessment From the National Centre for Pharmacoeconomics Review Group.

It is expected that the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic will leave large deficits in the budgets of many jurisdictions. Funding for other treatments, in particular new treatments, may become more constrained than previously expected. Therefore, a robust health technology assessment (HTA) system is vital. Many clinical trials carried out during the pandemic may have been temporarily halted, while others may have had to change their protocols. Even trials that continue as normal may experience external changes as other aspects of the healthcare service may not be available to the patients in the trial, or the patients themselves may contract COVID-19. Consequently, many limitations are likely to arise in the provision of robust HTAs, which could have profound consequences on the availability of new treatments. Therefore, the National Centre for Pharmacoeconomics Review Group wishes to discuss these issues and make recommendations for applicants submitting to HTA agencies, in ample time for these HTAs to be prepared and assessed. We discuss how the pandemic may affect the estimation of the treatment effect, costs, life-years, utilities, discontinuation rates, and methods of evidence synthesis and extrapolation. In particular, we note that trials conducted during the pandemic will be subject to a higher degree of uncertainty than before. It is vital that applicants clearly identify any parameters that may be affected by the pandemic. These parameters will require considerably more scenario and sensitivity analyses to account for this increase in uncertainty.

Estimating an Individual's Probability of Revision Surgery After Knee Replacement: A Comparison of Modeling Approaches Using a National Data Set.

Tools that provide personalized risk prediction of outcomes after surgical procedures help patients make preference-based decisions among the available treatment options. However, it is unclear which modeling approach provides the most accurate risk estimation. We constructed and compared several parametric and nonparametric models for predicting prosthesis survivorship after knee replacement surgery for osteoarthritis. We used 430,455 patient-procedure episodes between April 2003 and September 2015 from the National Joint Registry for England, Wales, Northern Ireland, and the Isle of Man. The flexible parametric survival and random survival forest models most accurately captured the observed probability of remaining event-free. The concordance index for the flexible parametric model was the highest (0.705, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.702, 0.707) for total knee replacement and was 0.639 (95% CI: 0.634, 0.643) for unicondylar knee replacement and 0.589 (95% CI: 0.586, 0.592) for patellofemoral replacement. The observed-to-predicted ratios for both the flexible parametric and the random survival forest approaches indicated that models tended to underestimate the risks for most risk groups. Our results show that the flexible parametric model has a better overall performance compared with other tested parametric methods and has better discrimination compared with the random survival forest approach.

The association between cement type and the subsequent risk of revision surgery in primary total hip replacement.

Background and purpose - To further improve the success of joint replacement surgery, attention needs to be paid to variations associated with improved or worsened outcomes. We investigated the association between the type of bone cement used and the risk of revision surgery after primary total hip replacement. Methods - We conducted a prospective study of data from the National Joint Registry for England and Wales between April 1, 2003 and December 31, 2013. 199,205 primary total hip replacements performed for osteoarthritis where bone cement was used were included. A multilevel over-dispersed piecewise Poisson model was used to estimate differences in the rate of revision by bone cement type adjusted for implant type, head size, age, sex, ASA grade, and surgical approach. Results - The rate of revision was higher in DePuy CMW3 medium viscosity with gentamicin (IRR 2.0, 95% CI 1.5-2.7) and DePuy SmartSet high viscosity plain (IRR 2.7, 95% CI 1.1-5.5), and lower in DePuy CMW1 high viscosity plain (IRR 0.44, 95% CI 0.19-0.89) bone cements compared with Heraeus Palacos high viscosity with gentamicin. Revision rates were similar between plain and antibiotic-loaded bone cement. Interpretation - The majority of bone cements performed similarly well, excluding DePuy SmartSet high viscosity and CMW3 high viscosity with gentamicin, which both had higher revision rates. We found no clear differences by viscosity or antibiotic content.

Body mass index, body dissatisfaction and adolescent smoking initiation.

BACKGROUND: Smoking influences body weight, but there is little evidence as to whether body mass index (BMI) and body dissatisfaction increase smoking initiation in adolescents. METHODS: We evaluated the association between measured BMI, body dissatisfaction and latent classes of smoking initiation (never smokers, experimenters, late onset regular smokers, early onset regular smokers) in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children. In observational analyses we used BMI (N=3754) and body dissatisfaction at age 10.5 years (N=3349). In Mendelian randomisation (MR) analysis, we used a BMI genetic risk score of 76 single nucleotide polymorphisms (N=4017). RESULTS: In females, higher BMI was associated with increased odds of early onset regular smoking (OR: 1.11, 95% CI: 1.04, 1.18) compared to being a never smoker, but not clearly associated with experimenting with smoking (OR: 1.04, 95% CI: 0.99, 1.10) or late onset regular smoking (OR: 1.01, 95% CI: 0.94, 1.09). No clear evidence was found for associations between BMI and smoking initiation classes in males (p-value for sex interaction≤0.001). Body dissatisfaction was associated with increased odds of late-onset regular smoking (OR: 1.71, 95% CI: 1.32, 1.99) in males and females combined (P-value for sex interaction=0.32). There was no clear evidence for an association between the BMI genetic risk score and smoking latent classes in males or females but estimates were imprecise. CONCLUSIONS: BMI in females and body dissatisfaction in males and females are associated with increased odds of smoking initiation, highlighting these as potentially important factors for consideration in smoking prevention strategies.

Preoperative psychosocial risk factors for poor outcomes at 1 and 5 years after total knee replacement.

Background and purpose - Psychosocial factors are important risk factors for poor outcomes in the first year after total knee replacement (TKR), however their impact on long-term outcomes is unclear. We aimed to identify preoperative psychosocial risk factors for poor outcomes at 1 year and 5 years after TKR. Patients and methods - 266 patients were recruited prior to TKR surgery. Knee pain and function were assessed preoperatively and at 1 and 5 years postoperative using the WOMAC Pain score, WOMAC Function score and American Knee Society Score (AKSS) Knee score. Preoperative depression, anxiety, catastrophizing, pain self-efficacy and social support were assessed. Statistical analyses involved multiple linear regression and mixed effect linear regression. Results - Higher anxiety was a risk factor for worse pain at 1 year postoperative. No psychosocial factors were associated with any outcomes at 5 years postoperative. Analysis of change over time found that patients with higher pain self-efficacy had lower preoperative pain and experienced less improvement in pain up to 1 year postoperative. Higher pain self-efficacy was associated with less improvement in the AKSS up to 1 year postoperative but more improvement between 1 and 5 years postoperative. Interpretation - Preoperative anxiety was found to influence pain at 1 year after TKR. However, none of the psychosocial variables were risk factors for a poor outcome at 5 years post-operative, suggesting that the negative effects of anxiety on outcome do not persist in the longer-term.

HAPRAP: a haplotype-based iterative method for statistical fine mapping using GWAS summary statistics.

MOTIVATION: Fine mapping is a widely used approach for identifying the causal variant(s) at disease-associated loci. Standard methods (e.g. multiple regression) require individual level genotypes. Recent fine mapping methods using summary-level data require the pairwise correlation coefficients ([Formula: see text]) of the variants. However, haplotypes rather than pairwise [Formula: see text], are the true biological representation of linkage disequilibrium (LD) among multiple loci. In this article, we present an empirical iterative method, HAPlotype Regional Association analysis Program (HAPRAP), that enables fine mapping using summary statistics and haplotype information from an individual-level reference panel. RESULTS: Simulations with individual-level genotypes show that the results of HAPRAP and multiple regression are highly consistent. In simulation with summary-level data, we demonstrate that HAPRAP is less sensitive to poor LD estimates. In a parametric simulation using Genetic Investigation of ANthropometric Traits height data, HAPRAP performs well with a small training sample size (N < 2000) while other methods become suboptimal. Moreover, HAPRAP's performance is not affected substantially by single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with low minor allele frequencies. We applied the method to existing quantitative trait and binary outcome meta-analyses (human height, QTc interval and gallbladder disease); all previous reported association signals were replicated and two additional variants were independently associated with human height. Due to the growing availability of summary level data, the value of HAPRAP is likely to increase markedly for future analyses (e.g. functional prediction and identification of instruments for Mendelian randomization). AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: The HAPRAP package and documentation are available at http://apps.biocompute.org.uk/haprap/ CONTACT: : jie.zheng@bristol.ac.uk or tom.gaunt@bristol.ac.ukSupplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Chlamydia screening, retesting and repeat diagnoses in Cornwall, UK 2003-2009.

OBJECTIVES: This study aims to describe the patterns of testing and retesting for chlamydia in Cornwall during the first 5 years of the National Chlamydia Screening Programme. We evaluate the factors associated with retesting and estimate the incidence of chlamydia diagnosis and repeat diagnosis. STUDY DESIGN: Secondary database analysis. SELECTION CRITERIA: men and women tested for chlamydia between March 2003 and January 2009 in Cornwall, aged ≥12 years and ≤25 years at the first test. The factors associated with retesting in those with at least one known test result and at least 14 days follow-up time were analysed using Cox regression and the incidence of diagnosis and repeat diagnosis were calculated. RESULTS: The final dataset consisted of 71 066 records from 49 941 individuals; of whom 59.0% were female and 75.4% were only tested once. There were 48 375 individuals with at least one known test result (negative or positive) and at least 14 days follow-up, included in the Cox regression analysis. Factors associated with testing more than once were (adjusted HR, 95% CI): being female (2.24; 2.14 to 2.34) and initially testing positive (1.43; 1.35 to 1.51). The positivity at first episode declined from 13.2% (1077 cases) in 2003/2004 to 5.8% (843 cases) in 2008/2009. The incidence of diagnosis at the second test was 5.9 per 100 person years in those testing negative at the first test compared with 18.1 per 100 person years in those initially positive. DISCUSSION: Most individuals in this analysis were tested only once, but the testing volume and proportion of repeat tests were highest at the end of the study period. As the testing rate stabilises to 30% coverage, maintaining retesting rates in those previously tested and especially in those previously diagnosed with chlamydia will be necessary for the sustainability of the screening programme. CONCLUSIONS: A key feature of the next 5 years of the screening programme will be to maintain screening and rescreening.