Systematic review of clinical prediction models for psychosis in individuals meeting At Risk Mental State criteria.

Objectives: This study aims to review studies developing or validating a prediction model for transition to psychosis in individuals meeting At Risk Mental State (ARMS) criteria focussing on predictors that can be obtained as part of standard clinical practice. Prediction of transition is crucial to facilitating identification of patients who would benefit from cognitive behavioural therapy and, conversely, those that would benefit from less costly and less-intensive regular mental state monitoring. The review aims to determine whether prediction models rated as low risk of bias exist and, if not, what further research is needed within the field. Design: Bibliographic databases (PsycINFO, Medline, EMBASE, CINAHL) were searched using index terms relating to the clinical field and prognosis from 1994, the initial year of the first prospective study using ARMS criteria, to July 2024. Screening of titles, abstracts, and subsequently full texts was conducted by two reviewers independently using predefined criteria. Study quality was assessed using the Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASessment Tool (PROBAST). Setting: Studies in any setting were included. Primary and secondary outcome measures: The primary outcome for the review was the identification of prediction models considering transition risk and a summary of their risk of bias. Results: Forty-eight unique prediction models considering risk of transition to psychosis were identified. Variables found to be consistently important when predicting transition were age, gender, global functioning score, trait vulnerability, and unusual thought content. PROBAST criteria categorised four unique prediction models as having an overall low-risk bias. Other studies were insufficiently powered for the number of candidate predictors or lacking enough information to draw a conclusion regarding risk of bias. Conclusions: Two of the 48 identified prediction models were developed using current best practice statistical methodology, validated their model in independent data, and presented low risk of bias overall in line with the PROBAST guidelines. Any new prediction model built to evaluate the risk of transition to psychosis in people meeting ARMS criteria should be informed by the latest statistical methodology and adhere to the TRIPOD reporting guidelines to ensure that clinical practice is informed by the best possible evidence. External validation of such models should be carefully planned particularly considering generalisation across different countries. Systematic review registration: https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPEROFILES/108488_PROTOCOL_20191127.pdf, identifier CRD42018108488.

Opening up ideas: an advent calendar for patient and public engagement in clinical trials research.

The involvement of patients and the public in research is now an expectation in research with funders requesting a clear plan of involvement and engagement. In the United Kingdom involvement typically focuses on research prioritisation, design and delivery, in contrast activities that share the results of research or research methods more generally are considered to be engagement. Clinical trials tend to concentrate on involvement activities with less emphasis on engagement. To promote engagement activities in the context of clinical trials we asked people attending the 2022 International Clinical Trials Methodology Conference to share ideas on how we can best engage with patients and the public. Responses were reviewed and 22 themes identified. One suggestion was to create an advent calendar and so these 22 themes plus two from the authors were used as a daily tweet from the 1st to the 24th December 2022. Here we share these ideas and draw comparisons between engagement activities in research and traditions of the Christmas period. The ideas shared are not intended as a definitive list but instead a novel way to start discussions between experts by experience, researchers, health professionals and communities to facilitate co-production of meaningful engagement strategies.

Patient and public involvement and engagement are terms used to describe specific activities that have a variety of goals from information giving through topublic co-production of research. Involvement and engagement are important as they can help reduce waste in research by ensuring that the research is relevant, conducted well and that the results are shared to those that will use them to make decisions about treatments, including patients. In the United Kingdom the term "engagement" usually refers to activities that focus mainly on information giving, for example sharing the results of research or information about how research is done in general. In this commentary we share ideas for engagement activities that were collected from people attending the International Clinical Trials Methodology Conference in 2022. One of the ideas shared was to have an advent calendar and we have used this to draw comparisons between traditions surrounding the Christmas period and engagement of patients and the public. We share 24 different ideas in the form of a printable advent calendar and invite the clinical trials community, including experts by experience, to reflect on these to generate more ideas for meaningful engagement activities so that everyone who will use the results of research has the opportunity to shape, share, and benefit from research.

A cross-sectional survey of healthcare professionals supporting children and young people with epilepsy and their parents/carers: which topics are raised in clinical consultations and can healthcare professionals provide the support needed?

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Children and young people (CYP) with epilepsy see healthcare professionals (HCPs) for management of their seizures but may require information, advice and support with a range of broader topics. The purpose of the survey was to identify from HCPs, which topics CYP with epilepsy and their parents/carers ask about other than seizure management, and how adequately HCPs feel able to support them with these topics. METHOD: A cross-sectional online survey was used to collect data. Adverts which included a link to the survey were shared via social media channels, professional networks and United Kingdom (UK)-based epilepsy networks. Eighty-eight HCPs in the UK (who worked with CYP with epilepsy and their parents/carers) completed the survey. Quantitative data are presented descriptively. Qualitative data (free-text responses) were reflexively thematically analysed. RESULTS: CYP with epilepsy and their parents/carers were reported to ask HCPs for information, advice and support about a range of topics, most commonly, cognition and mental health. CYP were reported as also frequently asking about aspects of their social life while parents/carers commonly asked about sleep. HCPs varied in how able they felt to adequately support families about these topics, as well as in their views about which resources could be most useful. Having insufficient time and a lack of suitable services and resources to refer to, or draw upon, were key barriers to HCPs being able to support CYP and their families. DISCUSSION: Findings highlight the broad array of topics CYP with epilepsy and their families are reported as seeking support for. HCPs identified gaps in services and their abilities to meet those needs. There appeared to be a mismatch between the support that families were seeking and the ability of HCPs to meet these needs. Findings have implications for how HCPs could best be supported to deal with topics raised by CYP and families in clinic, highlighting the potential usefulness of informational resources on key topics for HCPs, parents/carers and CYP.

Best step-up treatments for children with uncontrolled asthma: a systematic review and network meta-analysis of individual participant data.

BACKGROUND: There is uncertainty about the best treatment option for children/adolescents with uncontrolled asthma despite inhaled corticosteroids (ICS) and international guidelines make different recommendations. We evaluated the pharmacological treatments to reduce asthma exacerbations and symptoms in uncontrolled patients age <18 years on ICS. METHODS: We searched MEDLINE, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Embase, Web of Science, National Institute for Health and Care Excellence Technology Appraisals, National Institute for Health and Care Research Health Technology Assessment series, World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry, conference abstracts and internal clinical trial registers (1 July 2014 to 5 May 2023) for randomised controlled trials of participants age <18 years with uncontrolled asthma on any ICS dose alone at screening. Studies before July 2014 were retrieved from previous systematic reviews/contact with authors. Patients had to be randomised to any dose of ICS alone or combined with long-acting ß2-agonists (LABA) or combined with leukotriene receptor antagonists (LTRA), LTRA alone, theophylline or placebo. Primary outcomes were exacerbation and asthma control. The interventions evaluated were ICS (low/medium/high dose), ICS+LABA, ICS+LTRA, LTRA alone, theophylline and placebo. RESULTS: Of the 4708 publications identified, 144 trials were eligible. Individual participant data were obtained from 29 trials and aggregate data were obtained from 19 trials. Compared with ICS Low, ICS Medium+LABA was associated with the lowest odds of exacerbation (OR 0.44, 95% credibility interval (95% CrI) 0.19-0.90) and with an increased forced expiratory volume in 1 s (mean difference 0.71, 95% CrI 0.35-1.06). Treatment with LTRA was the least preferred. No apparent differences were found for asthma control. CONCLUSIONS: Uncontrolled children/adolescents on low-dose ICS should be recommended a change to medium-dose ICS+LABA to reduce the risk for exacerbation and improve lung function.

Determining the Effectiveness of Fibrin Sealants in Reducing Complications in Patients Undergoing Lateral Neck Dissection (DEFeND): A Randomised External Pilot Trial.

OBJECTIVES: High-quality randomised controlled trials (RCT) to support the use of Fibrin Sealants (FS) in neck dissection (ND) are lacking. The DEFeND trial assessed critical pilot/feasibility questions and signals from clinical outcomes to inform a future definitive trial. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The study design piloted was a blinded surgical RCT. All participants underwent unilateral ND for head and neck cancer. Interventional arm: ND with application of FS. CONTROL ARM: ND alone. Feasibility outcomes included recruitment, effectiveness of blinding, protocol adherence and evaluating administrative processes. Clinical outcomes included surgical complications (primary outcome), drainage volume, time to drain removal, length of hospital stay, pain and the Neck Dissection Impairment Index. RESULTS: Recruitment completed ahead of time. Fifty-three patients were recruited, and 48 were randomised at a rate of 5.3 patients/month. Blinding of patients, research nurses and outcome assessors was effective. Two protocol deviations occurred. Two patients were lost to follow-up. The mean (SD) Comprehensive Complication Index in the interventional arm was 6.5 (12.8), and it was 9.9 (14.2) in the control arm. The median (IQR) time to drain removal (days) was shorter in the interventional arm (2.67 (2.42, 3.58) vs. 3.40 (2.50, 4.27)). However, this did not translate to a clinically significant reduction in median (IQR) length of hospital stay in days (intervention: 3.48 (2.64, 4.54), control: 3.74 (3.11, 4.62)). CONCLUSION: The proposed trial design was effective, and a definitive surgical trial is feasible. Whilst there was a tendency for FS to improve clinical outcomes, the effect size did not reach clinical or statistical significance. (ISRCTN99181100).

Monotherapy treatment of epilepsy in pregnancy: congenital malformation outcomes in the child.

BACKGROUND: Prenatal exposure to certain anti-seizure medications (ASMs) is associated with an increased risk of major congenital malformations (MCM). The majority of women with epilepsy continue taking ASMs throughout pregnancy and, therefore, information on the potential risks associated with ASM treatment is required. OBJECTIVES: To assess the effects of prenatal exposure to ASMs on the prevalence of MCM in the child. SEARCH METHODS: For the latest update of this review, we searched the following databases on 17 February 2022: Cochrane Register of Studies (CRS Web), MEDLINE (Ovid, 1946 to February 16, 2022), SCOPUS (1823 onwards), and ClinicalTrials.gov, WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP). No language restrictions were imposed. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included prospective cohort controlled studies, cohort studies set within pregnancy registries, randomised controlled trials and epidemiological studies using routine health record data. Participants were women with epilepsy taking ASMs; the two control groups were women without epilepsy and untreated women with epilepsy. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Five authors independently selected studies for inclusion. Eight authors completed data extraction and/or risk of bias assessments. The primary outcome was the presence of an MCM. Secondary outcomes included specific types of MCM. Where meta-analysis was not possible, we reviewed included studies narratively. MAIN RESULTS: From 12,296 abstracts, we reviewed 283 full-text publications which identified 49 studies with 128 publications between them. Data from ASM-exposed pregnancies were more numerous for prospective cohort studies (n = 17,963), than data currently available for epidemiological health record studies (n = 7913). The MCM risk for children of women without epilepsy was 2.1% (95% CI 1.5 to 3.0) in cohort studies and 3.3% (95% CI 1.5 to 7.1) in health record studies. The known risk associated with sodium valproate exposure was clear across comparisons with a pooled prevalence of 9.8% (95% CI 8.1 to 11.9) from cohort data and 9.7% (95% CI 7.1 to 13.4) from routine health record studies. This was elevated across almost all comparisons to other monotherapy ASMs, with the absolute risk differences ranging from 5% to 9%. Multiple studies found that the MCM risk is dose-dependent. Children exposed to carbamazepine had an increased MCM prevalence in both cohort studies (4.7%, 95% CI 3.7 to 5.9) and routine health record studies (4.0%, 95% CI 2.9 to 5.4) which was significantly higher than that for the children born to women without epilepsy for both cohort (RR 2.30, 95% CI 1.47 to 3.59) and routine health record studies (RR 1.14, 95% CI 0.80 to 1.64); with similar significant results in comparison to the children of women with untreated epilepsy for both cohort studies (RR 1.44, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.96) and routine health record studies (RR 1.42, 95% CI 1.10 to 1.83). For phenobarbital exposure, the prevalence was 6.3% (95% CI 4.8 to 8.3) and 8.8% (95% CI 0.0 to 9277.0) from cohort and routine health record data, respectively. This increased risk was significant in comparison to the children of women without epilepsy (RR 3.22, 95% CI 1.84 to 5.65) and those born to women with untreated epilepsy (RR 1.64, 95% CI 0.94 to 2.83) in cohort studies; data from routine health record studies was limited. For phenytoin exposure, the prevalence of MCM was elevated for cohort study data (5.4%, 95% CI 3.6 to 8.1) and routine health record data (6.8%, 95% CI 0.1 to 701.2). The prevalence of MCM was higher for phenytoin-exposed children in comparison to children of women without epilepsy (RR 3.81, 95% CI 1.91 to 7.57) and the children of women with untreated epilepsy (RR 2.01. 95% CI 1.29 to 3.12); there were no data from routine health record studies. Pooled data from cohort studies indicated a significantly increased MCM risk for children exposed to lamotrigine in comparison to children born to women without epilepsy (RR 1.99, 95% CI 1.16 to 3.39); with a risk difference (RD) indicating a 1% increased risk of MCM (RD 0.01. 95% CI 0.00 to 0.03). This was not replicated in the comparison to the children of women with untreated epilepsy (RR 1.04, 95% CI 0.66 to 1.63), which contained the largest group of lamotrigine-exposed children (> 2700). Further, a non-significant difference was also found both in comparison to the children of women without epilepsy (RR 1.19, 95% CI 0.86 to 1.64) and children born to women with untreated epilepsy (RR 1.00, 95% CI 0.79 to 1.28) from routine data studies. For levetiracetam exposure, pooled data provided similar risk ratios to women without epilepsy in cohort (RR 2.20, 95% CI 0.98 to 4.93) and routine health record studies (RR 0.67, 95% CI 0.17 to 2.66). This was supported by the pooled results from both cohort (RR 0.71, 95% CI 0.39 to 1.28) and routine health record studies (RR 0.82, 95% CI 0.39 to 1.71) when comparisons were made to the offspring of women with untreated epilepsy. For topiramate, the prevalence of MCM was 3.9% (95% CI 2.3 to 6.5) from cohort study data and 4.1% (0.0 to 27,050.1) from routine health record studies. Risk ratios were significantly higher for children exposed to topiramate in comparison to the children of women without epilepsy in cohort studies (RR 4.07, 95% CI 1.64 to 10.14) but not in a smaller comparison to the children of women with untreated epilepsy (RR 1.37, 95% CI 0.57 to 3.27); few data are currently available from routine health record studies. Exposure in utero to topiramate was also associated with significantly higher RRs in comparison to other ASMs for oro-facial clefts. Data for all other ASMs were extremely limited. Given the observational designs, all studies were at high risk of certain biases, but the biases observed across primary data collection studies and secondary use of routine health records were different and were, in part, complementary. Biases were balanced across the ASMs investigated, and it is unlikely that the differential results observed across the ASMs are solely explained by these biases. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Exposure in the womb to certain ASMs was associated with an increased risk of certain MCMs which, for many, is dose-dependent.

ANTECEDENTES: La exposición prenatal a determinados fármacos anticonvulsivos (FAC) se asocia con un mayor riesgo de malformaciones congénitas graves (MCG). La mayoría de las mujeres con epilepsia continúan tomando FAC durante todo el embarazo y, por lo tanto, se requiere información sobre los riesgos potenciales asociados con el tratamiento con FAC. OBJETIVOS: Evaluar los efectos de la exposición prenatal a los FAC sobre la prevalencia de MCG en el niño. MÉTODOS DE BÚSQUEDA: Para la última actualización de esta revisión se hicieron búsquedas el 17 de febrero de 2022 en las siguientes bases de datos: Registro Cochrane de Estudios (Cochrane Register of Studies [CRS Web]), MEDLINE (Ovid, 1946 hasta el 16 de febrero de 2022), SCOPUS (1823 en adelante) y ClinicalTrials.gov , Plataforma de registros internacionales de ensayos clínicos (ICTRP). No se impusieron restricciones de idioma. CRITERIOS DE SELECCIÓN: Se incluyeron estudios prospectivos controlados de cohortes, estudios de cohortes establecidos dentro de registros de embarazos, ensayos controlados aleatorizados y estudios epidemiológicos que utilizaron datos rutinarios de los historiales médicos. Las participantes fueron mujeres con epilepsia que tomaban FAC; los dos grupos de control fueron mujeres sin epilepsia y mujeres con epilepsia que no recibían tratamiento. OBTENCIÓN Y ANÁLISIS DE LOS DATOS: Cinco autores seleccionaron de forma independiente los estudios para inclusión. Ocho autores completaron la extracción de los datos y las evaluaciones del riesgo de sesgo. El desenlace principal fue la presencia de una MCG. Los desenlaces secundarios incluyeron tipos específicos de MCG. Cuando no fue posible realizar un metanálisis, los estudios incluidos se examinaron de forma narrativa. RESULTADOS PRINCIPALES: De 12 296 resúmenes, se revisaron 283 publicaciones a texto completo que identificaron 49 estudios con 128 publicaciones entre ellos. Los datos de los embarazos expuestos a FAC fueron más numerosos en el caso de los estudios prospectivos de cohortes (n = 17 963), que los datos actualmente disponibles de estudios de registros sanitarios epidemiológicos (n = 7913). El riesgo de MCG en los hijos de mujeres sin epilepsia fue del 2,1% (IC del 95%: 1,5 a 3,0) en los estudios de cohortes y del 3,3% (IC del 95%: 1,5 a 7,1) en los estudios de registros sanitarios. El riesgo conocido asociado con la exposición al valproato de sodio fue evidente en todas las comparaciones, con una prevalencia agrupada del 9,8% (IC del 95%: 8,1 a 11,9) a partir de los datos de los estudios de cohortes y del 9,7% (IC del 95%: 7,1 a 13,4) a partir de los estudios con datos rutinarios de los historiales médicos. Este fue elevado en casi todas las comparaciones con otros FAC como monoterapia, con diferencias absolutas de riesgo que variaron entre el 5% y el 9%. Múltiples estudios han constatado que el riesgo de MCG depende de la dosis. Los niños expuestos a la carbamazepina tuvieron una mayor prevalencia de MCG tanto en los estudios de cohortes (4,7%; IC del 95%: 3,7 a 5,9) como en los estudios con datos rutinarios de los historiales médicos (4,0%; IC del 95%: 2,9 a 5,4), que fue significativamente superior a la de los niños nacidos de mujeres sin epilepsia tanto en los estudios de cohortes (RR 2,30; IC del 95%: 1,47 a 3,59) como en los estudios de historias clínicas habituales (RR 1,14; IC del 95%: 0,80 a 1,64), con resultados significativos similares en comparación con los hijos de mujeres con epilepsia que no reciben tratamiento tanto en los estudios de cohortes (RR 1,44; IC del 95%: 1,05 a 1,96) como en los estudios con datos rutinarios de los historiales médicos (RR 1,42; IC del 95%: 1,10 a 1,83). Para la exposición al fenobarbital, la prevalencia fue del 6,3% (IC del 95%: 4,8 a 8,3) y del 8,8% IC del 95%: 0,0 a 9277,0) a partir de los datos de estudios de cohortes y los datos de estudios con datos rutinarios de los historiales médicos, respectivamente. Este aumento del riesgo fue significativo en comparación con los hijos de mujeres sin epilepsia (RR 3,22; IC del 95%: 1,84 a 5,65) y los nacidos de mujeres con epilepsia que no reciben tratamiento (RR 1,64; IC del 95%: 0,94 a 2,83) en estudios de cohortes; los datos procedentes de estudios con datos rutinarios de los historiales médicos fueron limitados. En cuanto a la exposición a la fenitoína, la prevalencia de MCG fue elevada en los datos de los estudios de cohortes (5,4%; IC del 95%: 3,6 a 8,1) y en los datos rutinarios de los historiales médicos (6,8%; IC del 95%: 0,1 a 701,2). La prevalencia de MCG fue mayor en los niños expuestos a la fenitoína en comparación con los hijos de mujeres sin epilepsia (RR 3,81; IC del 95%: 1,91 a 7,57) y los hijos de mujeres con epilepsia que no reciben tratamiento (RR 2,01; IC del 95%: 1,29 a 3,12); no hubo datos procedentes de estudios con datos rutinarios de los historiales médicos. Los datos agrupados de los estudios de cohortes indicaron un riesgo significativamente mayor de MCG en los niños expuestos a lamotrigina en comparación con los niños nacidos de mujeres sin epilepsia (RR 1,99; IC del 95%: 1,16 a 3,39); con una diferencia de riesgos (DR) que indica un riesgo 1% mayor de MCG (DR 0,01. IC del 95%: 0,00 a 0,03). Esto no se repitió en la comparación con los hijos de las mujeres con epilepsia que no reciben tratamiento (RR 1,04; IC del 95%: 0,66 a 1,63), que contenía el mayor grupo de niños expuestos a la lamotrigina (> 2700). Además, también se encontró una diferencia no significativa tanto en comparación con los hijos de mujeres sin epilepsia (RR 1,19; IC del 95%: 0,86 a 1,64) como con los hijos de mujeres con epilepsia que no reciben tratamiento (RR 1,00; IC del 95%: 0,79 a 1,28) a partir de los estudios con datos rutinarios. Para la exposición al levetiracetam, los datos agrupados proporcionaron razones de riesgos similares a las de las mujeres sin epilepsia en los estudios de cohortes (RR 2,20; IC del 95%: 0,98 a 4,93) y en los estudios con datos rutinarios de los historiales médicos (RR 0,67; IC del 95%: 0,17 a 2,66). Los resultados agrupados de los estudios de cohortes (RR: 0,71; IC del 95%: 0,39 a 1,28) y de los estudios con datos rutinarios de los historiales médicos (RR: 0,82; IC del 95%: 0,39 a 1,71) respaldan esta afirmación cuando se comparan con los hijos de las mujeres con epilepsia que no reciben tratamiento. En el caso del topiramato, la prevalencia de MCG fue del 3,9% (IC del 95%: 2,3 a 6,5) a partir de los datos de los estudios de cohortes y del 4,1% (0,0 a 27.050,1) a partir de los estudios con datos rutinarios de los historiales médicos. Las razones de riesgos fueron significativamente más altas para los niños expuestos al topiramato en comparación con los hijos de mujeres sin epilepsia en estudios de cohortes (RR 4,07; IC del 95%: 1,64 a 10,14), pero no en una comparación más pequeña con los hijos de mujeres con epilepsia que no reciben tratamiento (RR 1,37; IC del 95%: 0,57 a 3,27); actualmente se dispone de pocos datos a partir de estudios con datos rutinarios de los historiales médicos. La exposición en el útero al topiramato también se asoció con RR significativamente mayores en comparación con otros FAC para las hendiduras orofaciales. Los datos de todos las demás FAC fueron extremadamente limitados. Debido a los diseños observacionales, todos los estudios presentaron un alto riesgo de ciertos sesgos, pero los sesgos observados en los estudios de obtención de datos primarios y el uso secundario de historiales médicos rutinarios fueron diferentes y, en parte, complementarios. Los sesgos estaban equilibrados entre los FAC investigados, y es poco probable que los resultados diferenciales observados entre los FAC se expliquen únicamente por estos sesgos. CONCLUSIONES DE LOS AUTORES: La exposición en el útero a ciertos FAC se asoció con un mayor riesgo de ciertos MCG que, para muchos, depende de la dosis.

Changing Agendas on Sleep, Treatment and Learning in Epilepsy (CASTLE) Sleep-E: a protocol for a randomised controlled trial comparing an online behavioural sleep intervention with standard care in children with Rolandic epilepsy.

INTRODUCTION: Sleep and epilepsy have an established bidirectional relationship yet only one randomised controlled clinical trial has assessed the effectiveness of behavioural sleep interventions for children with epilepsy. The intervention was successful, but was delivered via face-to-face educational sessions with parents, which are costly and non-scalable to population level. The Changing Agendas on Sleep, Treatment and Learning in Epilepsy (CASTLE) Sleep-E trial addresses this problem by comparing clinical and cost-effectiveness in children with Rolandic epilepsy between standard care (SC) and SC augmented with a novel, tailored parent-led CASTLE Online Sleep Intervention (COSI) that incorporates evidence-based behavioural components. METHODS AND ANALYSES: CASTLE Sleep-E is a UK-based, multicentre, open-label, active concurrent control, randomised, parallel-group, pragmatic superiority trial. A total of 110 children with Rolandic epilepsy will be recruited in outpatient clinics and allocated 1:1 to SC or SC augmented with COSI (SC+COSI). Primary clinical outcome is parent-reported sleep problem score (Children's Sleep Habits Questionnaire). Primary health economic outcome is the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (National Health Service and Personal Social Services perspective, Child Health Utility 9D Instrument). Parents and children (≥7 years) can opt into qualitative interviews and activities to share their experiences and perceptions of trial participation and managing sleep with Rolandic epilepsy. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The CASTLE Sleep-E protocol was approved by the Health Research Authority East Midlands (HRA)-Nottingham 1 Research Ethics Committee (reference: 21/EM/0205). Trial results will be disseminated to scientific audiences, families, professional groups, managers, commissioners and policymakers. Pseudo-anonymised individual patient data will be made available after dissemination on reasonable request. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN13202325.

The impact of parent treatment preference and other factors on recruitment: lessons learned from a paediatric epilepsy randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: In paediatric epilepsy, the evidence of effectiveness of antiseizure treatment is inconclusive for some types of epilepsy. As with other paediatric clinical trials, researchers undertaking paediatric epilepsy clinical trials face a range of challenges that may compromise external validity MAIN BODY: In this paper, we critically reflect upon the factors which impacted recruitment to the pilot phase of a phase IV unblinded, randomised controlled 3×2 factorial trial examining the effectiveness of two antiseizure medications (ASMs) and a sleep behaviour intervention in children with Rolandic epilepsy. We consider the processes established to support recruitment, public and patient involvement and engagement (PPIE), site induction, our oversight of recruitment targets and figures, and the actions we took to help us understand why we failed to recruit sufficient children to continue to the substantive trial phase. The key lessons learned were about parent preference, children's involvement and collaboration in decision-making, potential and alternative trial designs, and elicitation of stated preferences pre-trial design. Despite pre-funding PPIE during the trial design phase, we failed to anticipate the scale of parental treatment preference for or against antiseizure medication (ASMs) and consequent unwillingness to be randomised. Future studies should ensure more detailed and in-depth consultation to ascertain parent and/or patient preferences. More intense engagement with parents and children exploring their ideas about treatment preferences could, perhaps, have helped predict some recruitment issues. Infrequent seizures or screening children close to natural remission were possible explanations for non-consent. It is possible some clinicians were unintentionally unable to convey clinical equipoise influencing parental decision against participation. We wanted children to be involved in decisions about trial participation. However, despite having tailored written and video information to explain the trial to children we do not know whether these materials were viewed in each consent conversation or how much input children had towards parents' decisions to participate. Novel methods such as parent/patient preference trials and/or discrete choice experiments may be the way forward. CONCLUSION: The importance of diligent consultation, the consideration of novel methods such as parent/patient preference trials and/or discrete choice experiments in studies examining the effectiveness of ASMs versus no-ASMs cannot be overemphasised even in the presence of widespread clinician equipoise.

Radiological features characterising indeterminate testes masses: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

CONTEXT: The use of scrotal ultrasonography (SUS) has increased the detection rate of indeterminate testicular masses. Defining radiological characteristics that identify malignancy may reduce the number of men undergoing unnecessary radical orchidectomy. OBJECTIVE: To define which SUS or scrotal magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) characteristics can predict benign or malignant disease in pre- or post-pubertal males with indeterminate testicular masses. EVIDENCE ACQUISITION: This systematic review was conducted in accordance with Cochrane Collaboration guidance. Medline, Embase, Cochrane controlled trials and systematic reviews databases were searched from (1970 to 26 March 2021). Benign and malignant masses were classified using the reported reference test: i.e., histopathology, or 12 months progression-free radiological surveillance. Risk of bias was assessed using the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-2 tool (QUADAS-2). EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS: A total of 32 studies were identified, including 1692 masses of which 28 studies and 1550 masses reported SUS features, four studies and 142 masses reported MRI features. Meta-analysis of different SUS (B-mode) values in post-pubertal men demonstrated that a size of ≤0.5 cm had a significantly lower odds ratio (OR) of malignancy compared to masses of >0.5 cm (P < 0.001). Comparison of masses of 0.6-1.0 cm and masses of >1.5 cm also demonstrated a significantly lower OR of malignancy (P = 0.04). There was no significant difference between masses of 0.6-1.0 and 1.1-1.5 cm. SUS in post-pubertal men also had a statistically significantly lower OR of malignancy for heterogenous masses vs homogenous masses (P = 0.04), hyperechogenic vs hypoechogenic masses (P < 0.01), normal vs increased enhancement (P < 0.01), and peripheral vs central vascularity (P < 0.01), respectively. There were limited data on pre-pubertal SUS, pre-pubertal MRI and post-pubertal MRI. CONCLUSIONS: This meta-analysis identifies radiological characteristics that have a lower OR of malignancy and may be of value in the management of the indeterminate testis mass.

Comparative efficacy and complications of long-acting and intermediate-acting insulin regimens for adults with type 1 diabetes: an individual patient data network meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the comparative efficacy and complications of long-acting and intermediate-acting insulin for different patient characteristics for type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM). DESIGN: Systematic review and individual patient data (IPD) network meta-analysis (NMA). DATA SOURCES: MEDLINE, EMBASE and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials were searched through June 2015. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) on adults with T1DM assessing glycosylated haemoglobin (A1c) and severe hypoglycaemia in long-acting and intermediate-acting insulin regimens. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: We requested IPD from authors and funders. When IPD were not available, we used aggregate data. We conducted a random-effects model, and specifically a one-stage IPD-NMA for those studies providing IPD and a two-stage IPD-NMA to incorporate those studies not providing IPD. RESULTS: We included 28 RCTs plus one companion report, after screening 6680 titles/abstracts and 205 full-text articles. Of the 28 RCTs, 27 studies provided data for the NMA with 7394 participants, of which 12 RCTs had IPD on 4943 participants. The IPD-NMA for A1c suggested that glargine once daily (mean difference [MD]=-0.31, 95% confidence interval [CI]: -0.48 to -0.14) and detemir once daily (MD=-0.25, 95% CI: -0.41 to -0.09) were superior to neutral protamine Hagedorn (NPH) once daily. NPH once/two times per day improved A1c compared with NPH once daily (MD=-0.30, 95% CI: -0.50 to -0.11). Results regarding complications in severe hypoglycaemia should be considered with great caution due to inconsistency in the evidence network. Accounting for missing data, there was no evidence of inconsistency and long-acting insulin regimens ranked higher regarding reducing severe hypoglycaemia compared with intermediate-acting insulin regimens (two-stage NMA: glargine two times per day SUCRA (Surface Under the Cumulative Ranking curve)=89%, detemir once daily SUCRA=77%; one-stage NMA: detemir once daily/two times per day SUCRA=85%). Using multiple imputations and IPD only, complications in severe hypoglycaemia increased with diabetes-related comorbidities (regression coefficient: 1.03, 95% CI: 1.02 to 1.03). CONCLUSIONS: Long-acting insulin regimens reduced A1c compared with intermediate-acting insulin regimens and were associated with lower severe hypoglycaemia. Of the observed differences, only glargine once daily achieved a clinically significant reduction of 0.30%. Results should be interpreted with caution due to very low quality of evidence. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42015023511.

Antiepileptic drug monotherapy for epilepsy: a network meta-analysis of individual participant data.

BACKGROUND: This is an updated version of the original Cochrane Review published in 2017. Epilepsy is a common neurological condition with a worldwide prevalence of around 1%. Approximately 60% to 70% of people with epilepsy will achieve a longer-term remission from seizures, and most achieve that remission shortly after starting antiepileptic drug treatment. Most people with epilepsy are treated with a single antiepileptic drug (monotherapy) and current guidelines from the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) in the United Kingdom for adults and children recommend carbamazepine or lamotrigine as first-line treatment for focal onset seizures and sodium valproate for generalised onset seizures; however, a range of other antiepileptic drug (AED) treatments are available, and evidence is needed regarding their comparative effectiveness in order to inform treatment choices. OBJECTIVES: To compare the time to treatment failure, remission and first seizure of 12 AEDs (carbamazepine, phenytoin, sodium valproate, phenobarbitone, oxcarbazepine, lamotrigine, gabapentin, topiramate, eventrate, zonisamide, eslicarbazepine acetate, lacosamide) currently used as monotherapy in children and adults with focal onset seizures (simple focal, complex focal or secondary generalised) or generalised tonic-clonic seizures with or without other generalised seizure types (absence, myoclonus). SEARCH METHODS: For the latest update, we searched the following databases on 12 April 2021: the Cochrane Register of Studies (CRS Web), which includes PubMed, Embase, ClinicalTrials.gov, the World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP), the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), the Cochrane Epilepsy Group Specialised Register and MEDLINE (Ovid, 1946 to April 09, 2021). We handsearched relevant journals and contacted pharmaceutical companies, original trial investigators and experts in the field. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included randomised controlled trials of a monotherapy design in adults or children with focal onset seizures or generalised onset tonic-clonic seizures (with or without other generalised seizure types). DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: This was an individual participant data (IPD) and network meta-analysis (NMA) review. Our primary outcome was 'time to treatment failure', and our secondary outcomes were 'time to achieve 12-month remission', 'time to achieve six-month remission', and 'time to first seizure post-randomisation'. We performed frequentist NMA to combine direct evidence with indirect evidence across the treatment network of 12 drugs. We investigated inconsistency between direct 'pairwise' estimates and NMA results via node splitting. Results are presented as hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) and we assessed the certainty of the evidence using the CiNeMA approach, based on the GRADE framework. We have also provided a narrative summary of the most commonly reported adverse events. MAIN RESULTS: IPD were provided for at least one outcome of this review for 14,789 out of a total of 22,049 eligible participants (67% of total data) from 39 out of the 89 eligible trials (43% of total trials). We could not include IPD from the remaining 50 trials in analysis for a variety of reasons, such as being unable to contact an author or sponsor to request data, data being lost or no longer available, cost and resources required to prepare data being prohibitive, or local authority or country-specific restrictions. No IPD were available from a single trial of eslicarbazepine acetate, so this AED could not be included in the NMA. Network meta-analysis showed high-certainty evidence that for our primary outcome, 'time to treatment failure', for individuals with focal seizures; lamotrigine performs better than most other treatments in terms of treatment failure for any reason and due to adverse events, including the other first-line treatment carbamazepine; HRs (95% CIs) for treatment failure for any reason for lamotrigine versus: eventrate 1.01 (0.88 to 1.20), zonisamide 1.18 (0.96 to 1.44), lacosamide 1.19 (0.90 to 1.58), carbamazepine 1.26 (1.10 to 1.44), oxcarbazepine 1.30 (1.02 to 1.66), sodium valproate 1.35 (1.09 to 1.69), phenytoin 1.44 (1.11 to 1.85), topiramate 1.50 (1.23 to 1.81), gabapentin 1.53 (1.26 to 1.85), phenobarbitone 1.97 (1.45 to 2.67). No significant difference between lamotrigine and eventrate was shown for any treatment failure outcome, and both AEDs seemed to perform better than all other AEDs. For people with generalised onset seizures, evidence was more limited and of moderate certainty; no other treatment performed better than first-line treatment sodium valproate, but there were no differences between sodium valproate, lamotrigine or eventrate in terms of treatment failure; HRs (95% CIs) for treatment failure for any reason for sodium valproate versus: lamotrigine 1.06 (0.81 to 1.37), eventrate 1.13 (0.89 to 1.42), gabapentin 1.13 (0.61 to 2.11), phenytoin 1.17 (0.80 to 1.73), oxcarbazepine 1.24 (0.72 to 2.14), topiramate 1.37 (1.06 to 1.77), carbamazepine 1.52 (1.18 to 1.96), phenobarbitone 2.13 (1.20 to 3.79), lacosamide 2.64 (1.14 to 6.09). Network meta-analysis also showed high-certainty evidence that for secondary remission outcomes, few notable differences were shown for either seizure type; for individuals with focal seizures, carbamazepine performed better than gabapentin (12-month remission) and sodium valproate (six-month remission). No differences between lamotrigine and any AED were shown for individuals with focal seizures, or between sodium valproate and other AEDs for individuals with generalised onset seizures. Network meta-analysis also showed high- to moderate-certainty evidence that, for 'time to first seizure,' in general, the earliest licensed treatments (phenytoin and phenobarbitone) performed better than the other treatments for individuals with focal seizures; phenobarbitone performed better than both first-line treatments carbamazepine and lamotrigine. There were no notable differences between the newer drugs (oxcarbazepine, topiramate, gabapentin, eventrate, zonisamide and lacosamide) for either seizure type. Generally, direct evidence (where available) and network meta-analysis estimates were numerically similar and consistent with confidence intervals of effect sizes overlapping. There was no important indication of inconsistency between direct and network meta-analysis results. The most commonly reported adverse events across all drugs were drowsiness/fatigue, headache or migraine, gastrointestinal disturbances, dizziness/faintness and rash or skin disorders; however, reporting of adverse events was highly variable across AEDs and across studies. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: High-certainty evidence demonstrates that for people with focal onset seizures, current first-line treatment options carbamazepine and lamotrigine, as well as newer drug eventrate, show the best profile in terms of treatment failure and seizure control as first-line treatments. For people with generalised tonic-clonic seizures (with or without other seizure types), current first-line treatment sodium valproate has the best profile compared to all other treatments, but lamotrigine and eventrate would be the most suitable alternative first-line treatments, particularly for those for whom sodium valproate may not be an appropriate treatment option. Further evidence from randomised controlled trials recruiting individuals with generalised tonic-clonic seizures (with or without other seizure types) is needed.

Comparative safety and efficacy of cognitive enhancers for Alzheimer's dementia: a systematic review with individual patient data network meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the comparative efficacy and safety of cognitive enhancers by patient characteristics for managing Alzheimer's dementia (AD). DESIGN: Systematic review and individual patient data (IPD) network meta-analysis (NMA) based on our previously published systematic review and aggregate data NMA. DATA SOURCES: MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane Methodology Register, CINAHL, AgeLine and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials up to March 2016. PARTICIPANTS: 80 randomised controlled trials (RCTs) including 21 138 adults with AD, and 12 RCTs with IPD including 6906 patients. INTERVENTIONS: Cognitive enhancers (donepezil, rivastigmine, galantamine and memantine) alone or in any combination against other cognitive enhancers or placebo. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: We requested IPD from authors, sponsors and data sharing platforms. When IPD were not available, we used aggregate data. We appraised study quality with the Cochrane risk-of-bias. We conducted a two-stage random-effects IPD-NMA, and assessed their findings using CINeMA (Confidence in Network Meta-Analysis). PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOMES: We included trials assessing cognition with the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), and adverse events. RESULTS: Our IPD-NMA compared nine treatments (including placebo). Donepezil (mean difference (MD)=1.41, 95% CI: 0.51 to 2.32) and donepezil +memantine (MD=2.57, 95% CI: 0.07 to 5.07) improved MMSE score (56 RCTs, 11 619 participants; CINeMA score: moderate) compared with placebo. According to P-score, oral rivastigmine (OR=1.26, 95% CI: 0.82 to 1.94, P-score=16%) and donepezil (OR=1.08, 95% CI: 0.87 to 1.35, P-score=30%) had the least favourable safety profile, but none of the estimated treatment effects were sufficiently precise when compared with placebo (45 RCTs, 15 649 patients; CINeMA score: moderate to high). For moderate-to-severe impairment, donepezil, memantine and their combination performed best, but for mild-to-moderate impairment donepezil and transdermal rivastigmine ranked best. Adjusting for MMSE baseline differences, oral rivastigmine and galantamine improved MMSE score, whereas when adjusting for comorbidities only oral rivastigmine was effective. CONCLUSIONS: The choice among the different cognitive enhancers may depend on patient's characteristics. The MDs of all cognitive enhancer regimens except for single-agent oral rivastigmine, galantamine and memantine, against placebo were clinically important for cognition (MD larger than 1.40 MMSE points), but results were quite imprecise. However, two-thirds of the published RCTs were associated with high risk of bias for incomplete outcome data, and IPD were only available for 15% of the included RCTs. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42015023507.

Care in Europe after presenting to the emergency department with a seizure; position paper and insights from the European Audit of Seizure Management in Hospitals.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: This position paper makes recommendations following an audit of care provided to people presenting with a seizure to emergency departments (EDs) in Europe. METHODS: Participating countries were asked to include five hospitals agreeing to identify 50 consecutive seizure patients presenting to their ED between 1 August 2016 and 31 August 2017. Anonymous data were collected to a web database. Where quoted, percentages are mean site values and ranges are the 10th-90th centile. RESULTS: Data were collected on 2204 ED visits (47 sites, up to six per country, across 15 countries): 1270 (58%) known epilepsy, 299 (14%) previous blackouts but no epilepsy diagnosis, 634 (29%) with a first seizure. Wide variability was identified for most variables. Of those with known epilepsy, 41.2% (range 26.2%-59.6%) attended the ED in the previous 12 months, but only 64.7% (range 37.2%-79.8%) had seen an epilepsy specialist in the previous 12 months. 67.7% (range 34.0%-100%) were admitted, 53.1% to a neurology ward (range 0.0%-88.9%). Only 37.5% first seizure patients (range 0.0%-71.4%) were given advice about driving. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS: It is recommended that in Europe guidance is agreed on the management and onward referral of those presenting to the ED with a seizure; a referral process is created that can be easily implemented; it is ensured that the seizure services receive referrals and see the patients within a short time period; and a simple system is developed and implemented to allow continuous monitoring of key indices of epilepsy care.

Interventions to prevent spontaneous preterm birth in women with singleton pregnancy who are at high risk: systematic review and network meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES: To compare the efficacy of bed rest, cervical cerclage (McDonald, Shirodkar, or unspecified type of cerclage), cervical pessary, fish oils or omega fatty acids, nutritional supplements (zinc), progesterone (intramuscular, oral, or vaginal), prophylactic antibiotics, prophylactic tocolytics, combinations of interventions, placebo or no treatment (control) to prevent spontaneous preterm birth in women with a singleton pregnancy and a history of spontaneous preterm birth or short cervical length. DESIGN: Systematic review with bayesian network meta-analysis. DATA SOURCES: The Cochrane Pregnancy and Childbirth Group's Database of Trials, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Medline, Embase, CINAHL, relevant journals, conference proceedings, and registries of ongoing trials. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA FOR SELECTING STUDIES: Randomised controlled trials of pregnant women who are at high risk of spontaneous preterm birth because of a history of spontaneous preterm birth or short cervical length. No language or date restrictions were applied. OUTCOMES: Seven maternal outcomes and 11 fetal outcomes were analysed in line with published core outcomes for preterm birth research. Relative treatment effects (odds ratios and 95% credible intervals) and certainty of evidence are presented for outcomes of preterm birth <34 weeks and perinatal death. RESULTS: Sixty one trials (17 273 pregnant women) contributed data for the analysis of at least one outcome. For preterm birth <34 weeks (40 trials, 13 310 pregnant women) and with placebo or no treatment as the comparator, vaginal progesterone was associated with fewer women with preterm birth <34 weeks (odds ratio 0.50, 95% credible interval 0.34 to 0.70, high certainty of evidence). Shirodkar cerclage showed the largest effect size (0.06, 0.00 to 0.84), but the certainty of evidence was low. 17OHPC (17α-hydroxyprogesterone caproate; 0.68, 0.43 to 1.02, moderate certainty), vaginal pessary (0.65, 0.39 to 1.08, moderate certainty), and fish oil or omega 3 (0.30, 0.06 to 1.23, moderate certainty) might also reduce preterm birth <34 weeks compared with placebo or no treatment. For the fetal outcome of perinatal death (30 trials, 12 119 pregnant women) and with placebo or no treatment as the comparator, vaginal progesterone was the only treatment that showed clear evidence of benefit for this outcome (0.66, 0.44 to 0.97, moderate certainty). 17OHPC (0.78, 0.50 to 1.21, moderate certainty), McDonald cerclage (0.59, 0.33 to 1.03, moderate certainty), and unspecified cerclage (0.77, 0.53 to 1.11, moderate certainty) might reduce perinatal death rates, but credible intervals could not exclude the possibility of harm. Only progesterone treatments are associated with reduction in neonatal respiratory distress syndrome, neonatal sepsis, necrotising enterocolitis, and admission to neonatal intensive care unit compared with controls. CONCLUSION: Vaginal progesterone should be considered the preventative treatment of choice for women with singleton pregnancy identified to be at risk of spontaneous preterm birth because of a history of spontaneous preterm birth or short cervical length. Future randomised controlled trials should use vaginal progesterone as a comparator to identify better treatments or combination treatments. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42020169006.

Which children and young people are at higher risk of severe disease and death after hospitalisation with SARS-CoV-2 infection in children and young people: A systematic review and individual patient meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to describe pre-existing factors associated with severe disease, primarily admission to critical care, and death secondary to SARS-CoV-2 infection in hospitalised children and young people (CYP), within a systematic review and individual patient meta-analysis. METHODS: We searched Pubmed, European PMC, Medline and Embase for case series and cohort studies published between 1st January 2020 and 21st May 2021 which included all CYP admitted to hospital with ≥ 30 CYP with SARS-CoV-2 or ≥ 5 CYP with PIMS-TS or MIS-C. Eligible studies contained (1) details of age, sex, ethnicity or co-morbidities, and (2) an outcome which included admission to critical care, mechanical invasive ventilation, cardiovascular support, or death. Studies reporting outcomes in more restricted groupings of co-morbidities were eligible for narrative review. We used random effects meta-analyses for aggregate study-level data and multilevel mixed effect models for IPD data to examine risk factors (age, sex, comorbidities) associated with admission to critical care and death. Data shown are odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CI).PROSPERO: CRD42021235338. FINDINGS: 83 studies were included, 57 (21,549 patients) in the meta-analysis (of which 22 provided IPD) and 26 in the narrative synthesis. Most studies had an element of bias in their design or reporting. Sex was not associated with critical care or death. Compared with CYP aged 1-4 years (reference group), infants (aged <1 year) had increased odds of admission to critical care (OR 1.63 (95% CI 1.40-1.90)) and death (OR 2.08 (1.57-2.86)). Odds of death were increased amongst CYP over 10 years (10-14 years OR 2.15 (1.54-2.98); >14 years OR 2.15 (1.61-2.88)).The number of comorbid conditions was associated with increased odds of admission to critical care and death for COVID-19 in a step-wise fashion. Compared with CYP without comorbidity, odds ratios for critical care admission were: 1.49 (1.45-1.53) for 1 comorbidity; 2.58 (2.41-2.75) for 2 comorbidities; 2.97 (2.04-4.32) for ≥3 comorbidities. Corresponding odds ratios for death were: 2.15 (1.98-2.34) for 1 comorbidity; 4.63 (4.54-4.74) for 2 comorbidities and 4.98 (3.78-6.65) for ≥3 comorbidities. Odds of admission to critical care were increased for all co-morbidities apart from asthma (0.92 (0.91-0.94)) and malignancy (0.85 (0.17-4.21)) with an increased odds of death in all co-morbidities considered apart from asthma. Neurological and cardiac comorbidities were associated with the greatest increase in odds of severe disease or death. Obesity increased the odds of severe disease and death independently of other comorbidities. IPD analysis demonstrated that, compared to children without co-morbidity, the risk difference of admission to critical care was increased in those with 1 comorbidity by 3.61% (1.87-5.36); 2 comorbidities by 9.26% (4.87-13.65); ≥3 comorbidities 10.83% (4.39-17.28), and for death: 1 comorbidity 1.50% (0.00-3.10); 2 comorbidities 4.40% (-0.10-8.80) and ≥3 co-morbidities 4.70 (0.50-8.90). INTERPRETATION: Hospitalised CYP at greatest vulnerability of severe disease or death with SARS-CoV-2 infection are infants, teenagers, those with cardiac or neurological conditions, or 2 or more comorbid conditions, and those who are obese. These groups should be considered higher priority for vaccination and for protective shielding when appropriate. Whilst odds ratios were high, the absolute increase in risk for most comorbidities was small compared to children without underlying conditions. FUNDING: RH is in receipt of a fellowship from Kidney Research UK (grant no. TF_010_20171124). JW is in receipt of a Medical Research Council Fellowship (Grant No. MR/R00160X/1). LF is in receipt of funding from Martin House Children's Hospice (there is no specific grant number for this). RV is in receipt of a grant from the National Institute of Health Research to support this work (grant no NIHR202322). Funders had no role in study design, data collection, analysis, decision to publish or preparation of the manuscript.

Testing times: the association of intolerance of uncertainty and metacognitive beliefs to test anxiety in college students.

BACKGROUND: Test anxiety has a detrimental effect on test performance but current interventions for test anxiety have limited efficacy. Therefore, examination of newer psychological models of test anxiety is now required. Two transdiagnostic psychological models of emotional disorders that can account for anxiety are the intolerance of uncertainty model (IUM) and the Self-Regulatory Executive Function (S-REF) model. Intolerance of uncertainty, the stable disposition to find uncertainty distressing, is central to the IUM, while beliefs about thinking, metacognition, are central to the S-REF model. We tested for the first time the role of both intolerance of uncertainty and metacognitive beliefs in test anxiety. METHODS: A cross-sectional design was used, with college students (n = 675) completing questionnaires assessing their test anxiety, intolerance of uncertainty, and metacognitive beliefs. Hierarchical linear regressions examined if intolerance of uncertainty and metacognitive beliefs were associated with test anxiety, after controlling for age and gender. RESULTS: Females reported significantly more test anxiety than males. Partial correlations, controlling for gender, found intolerance of uncertainty and metacognitive beliefs were significantly and positively correlated with test anxiety. Hierarchical linear regressions found metacognitive beliefs explained an additional 13% of variance in test anxiety, after controlling for intolerance of uncertainty. When the order of entry was reversed, intolerance of uncertainty was only able to explain an additional 2% of variance, after controlling for metacognitive beliefs. In the final regression model, gender, intolerance of uncertainty and the metacognitive belief domains of 'negative beliefs about the uncontrollability and danger of worry' and 'cognitive confidence' were all significantly associated test anxiety, with 'negative beliefs about the uncontrollability and danger of worry' having the largest association. CONCLUSIONS: Both intolerance of uncertainty and metacognitive beliefs are linked to test anxiety, but results suggest metacognitive beliefs have more explanatory utility, providing greater support for the S-REF model. Modification of intolerance of uncertainty and metacognitive beliefs could alleviate test anxiety and help students fulfil their academic potential.

Practical Considerations and Challenges When Conducting an Individual Participant Data (IPD) Meta-Analysis.

This chapter provides a broad overview of the use of individual participant (sometimes referred to as patient) data (IPD ) within meta-analyses, the associated advantages of using IPD in meta-analysis compared to aggregate data, and when IPD should be used in meta-analysis.This chapter also outlines the steps of conducting an IPD meta-analysis, with practical guidance relating to requesting and obtaining IPD for meta-analysis. Challenges that can be associated with conducting an IPD meta-analysis are also discussed, including consideration of availability bias, when a subset of the relevant IPD is not available for meta-analysis.

Lamotrigine versus levetiracetam or zonisamide for focal epilepsy and valproate versus levetiracetam for generalised and unclassified epilepsy: two SANAD II non-inferiority RCTs.

BACKGROUND: Levetiracetam (Keppra®, UCB Pharma Ltd, Slough, UK) and zonisamide (Zonegran®, Eisai Co. Ltd, Tokyo, Japan) are licensed as monotherapy for focal epilepsy, and levetiracetam is increasingly used as a first-line treatment for generalised epilepsy, particularly for women of childbearing age. However, there is uncertainty as to whether or not they should be recommended as first-line treatments owing to a lack of evidence of clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness. OBJECTIVES: To compare the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of lamotrigine (Lamictal®, GlaxoSmithKline plc, Brentford, UK) (standard treatment) with levetiracetam and zonisamide (new treatments) for focal epilepsy, and to compare valproate (Epilim®, Sanofi SA, Paris, France) (standard treatment) with levetiracetam (new treatment) for generalised and unclassified epilepsy. DESIGN: Two pragmatic randomised unblinded non-inferiority trials run in parallel. SETTING: Outpatient services in NHS hospitals throughout the UK. PARTICIPANTS: Those aged ≥ 5 years with two or more spontaneous seizures that require anti-seizure medication. INTERVENTIONS: Participants with focal epilepsy were randomised to receive lamotrigine, levetiracetam or zonisamide. Participants with generalised or unclassifiable epilepsy were randomised to receive valproate or levetiracetam. The randomisation method was minimisation using a web-based program. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was time to 12-month remission from seizures. For this outcome, and all other time-to-event outcomes, we report hazard ratios for the standard treatment compared with the new treatment. For the focal epilepsy trial, the non-inferiority limit (lamotrigine vs. new treatments) was 1.329. For the generalised and unclassified epilepsy trial, the non-inferiority limit (valproate vs. new treatments) was 1.314. Secondary outcomes included time to treatment failure, time to first seizure, time to 24-month remission, adverse reactions, quality of life and cost-effectiveness. RESULTS: Focal epilepsy. A total of 990 participants were recruited, of whom 330 were randomised to receive lamotrigine, 332 were randomised to receive levetiracetam and 328 were randomised to receive zonisamide. Levetiracetam did not meet the criteria for non-inferiority (hazard ratio 1.329) in the primary intention-to-treat analysis of time to 12-month remission (hazard ratio vs. lamotrigine 1.18, 97.5% confidence interval 0.95 to 1.47), but zonisamide did meet the criteria (hazard ratio vs. lamotrigine 1.03, 97.5% confidence interval 0.83 to 1.28). In the per-protocol analysis, lamotrigine was superior to both levetiracetam (hazard ratio 1.32, 95% confidence interval 1.05 to 1.66) and zonisamide (hazard ratio 1.37, 95% confidence interval 1.08 to 1.73). For time to treatment failure, lamotrigine was superior to levetiracetam (hazard ratio 0.60, 95% confidence interval 0.46 to 0.77) and zonisamide (hazard ratio 0.46, 95% confidence interval 0.36 to 0.60). Adverse reactions were reported by 33% of participants starting lamotrigine, 44% starting levetiracetam and 45% starting zonisamide. In the economic analysis, both levetiracetam and zonisamide were more costly and less effective than lamotrigine and were therefore dominated. Generalised and unclassifiable epilepsy. Of 520 patients recruited, 260 were randomised to receive valproate and 260 were randomised to receive to levetiracetam. A total of 397 patients had generalised epilepsy and 123 had unclassified epilepsy. Levetiracetam did not meet the criteria for non-inferiority in the primary intention-to-treat analysis of time to 12-month remission (hazard ratio 1.19, 95% confidence interval 0.96 to 1.47; non-inferiority margin 1.314). In the per-protocol analysis of time to 12-month remission, valproate was superior to levetiracetam (hazard ratio 1.68, 95% confidence interval 1.30 to 2.15). Valproate was superior to levetiracetam for time to treatment failure (hazard ratio 0.65, 95% confidence interval 0.50 to 0.83). Adverse reactions were reported by 37.4% of participants receiving valproate and 41.5% of those receiving levetiracetam. Levetiracetam was both more costly (incremental cost of £104, 95% central range -£587 to £1234) and less effective (incremental quality-adjusted life-year of -0.035, 95% central range -0.137 to 0.032) than valproate, and was therefore dominated. At a cost-effectiveness threshold of £20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year, levetiracetam was associated with a probability of 0.17 of being cost-effective. LIMITATIONS: The SANAD II trial was unblinded, which could have biased results by influencing decisions about dosing, treatment failure and the attribution of adverse reactions. FUTURE WORK: SANAD II data could now be included in an individual participant meta-analysis of similar trials, and future similar trials are required to assess the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of other new treatments, including lacosamide and perampanel. CONCLUSIONS: Focal epilepsy - The SANAD II findings do not support the use of levetiracetam or zonisamide as first-line treatments in focal epilepsy. Generalised and unclassifiable epilepsy - The SANAD II findings do not support the use of levetiracetam as a first-line treatment for newly diagnosed generalised epilepsy. For women of childbearing potential, these results inform discussions about the benefit (lower teratogenicity) and harm (worse seizure outcomes and higher treatment failure rate) of levetiracetam compared with valproate. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN30294119 and EudraCT 2012-001884-64. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 75. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

BACKGROUND AND METHODS: The SANAD II trial was a clinical trial designed to identify the most clinically effective and cost-effective treatment for adults and children aged > 5 years with newly diagnosed epilepsy. There are two main epilepsy types: focal and generalised. In focal epilepsy, seizures start at a single place in the brain (a focus), whereas in generalised epilepsy seizures start in both sides of the brain at the same time. Anti-seizure medications are the main treatment. For people with newly diagnosed epilepsy, the first anti-seizure medication should control the seizures as quickly as possible while avoiding side effects. The first-choice treatments are lamotrigine (Lamictal®, GlaxoSmithKline plc, Brentford, UK) for focal epilepsy and valproate (Epilim®, Sanofi SA, Paris, France) for generalised epilepsy (however, the latter should be avoided in women who could become pregnant). A number of newer anti-seizure medications have been approved for NHS use, but it is unclear whether or not they should be used as first-line treatments. The SANAD II trial focused on the new medicines levetiracetam (Keppra®, UCB Pharma Ltd, Slough, UK) and zonisamide (Zonegran®, Eisai Co. Ltd, Tokyo, Japan). We recruited 1510 people aged ≥ 5 years with newly diagnosed epilepsy: 990 with focal epilepsy and 520 with generalised or unclassified epilepsy. FINDINGS: FOCAL EPILEPSY: People starting treatment with levetiracetam or zonisamide were significantly less likely to have a 12-month remission from seizures than people starting treatment with lamotrigine, unless they were changed to another anti-seizure medication. Side effects that were thought to be caused by anti-seizure medications were reported by 33% of participants starting lamotrigine, 44% of those starting levetiracetam and 45% of those starting zonisamide. The cost-effectiveness analyses showed that neither levetiracetam nor zonisamide is value for money for the NHS when compared with lamotrigine. The SANAD II findings do not support the use of levetiracetam or zonisamide as first-line treatments in focal epilepsy. FINDINGS: GENERALISED AND UNCLASSIFIABLE EPILEPSY: People starting treatment with levetiracetam were significantly less likely to have a 12-month remission from seizures than people starting valproate, unless they were changed to another anti-seizure medication. Side effects that were thought to be caused by anti-seizure medications were reported by 37% of participants starting valproate and 42% of participants starting levetiracetam. The cost-effectiveness analyses showed that levetiracetam is not good value for money for the NHS when compared with valproate. The SANAD II findings do not support the use of levetiracetam as a first-line treatment for newly diagnosed generalised epilepsy. Importantly, our results will inform treatment decisions for women, who may choose a less effective treatment that is safer in pregnancy.

Care After Presenting with Seizures (CAPS): An analysis of the impact of a seizure referral pathway and nurse support on neurology referral rates for patients admitted with a seizure.

INTRODUCTION: The National Audit of Seizure Management in Hospitals (NASH) identified low referral rates to neurology and epilepsy services after an emergency department attendance or admission with a seizure. METHODS: National Health Service Secondary Users Service (SUS) data were used to assess the impact of a seizure pathway at seven hospitals in Cheshire & Merseyside, which was implemented in 2014. Three of these hospitals also had a nurse employed part-time to support the pathway. Patients admitted with a seizure between 2011 and 2018 inclusive were identified using an algorithm based on ICD-10 codes, and the primary outcome was a neurology referral within 3 months of admission. Regression models were used to assess the impact of age, deprivation and comorbidity on post admission clinic referral rates. RESULTS: 13,285 admissions with seizure were included in the analysis. 5,677 had not attended a neurology clinic appointment in the 12 months before the admission. The percentage of whom that were offered an appointment following the admission was: 16.0% before the pathway and 35.9% with the nurse-supported pathway, which was significant in the regression model. 4,700 admissions had attended a neurology clinic appointment in the 12 months before the admission. Of this group, the percentage of whom that were offered an appointment following the admission was: 55.2% before the pathway and 62.4% with the nurse-supported pathway, an increase that was not significant in the regression model. The regression models identified significant health inequalities whereby older patients, those with comorbidities and those living in deprived areas were significantly less likely to be referred. CONCLUSION: Neurology out-patient appointment rates following an admission with seizures are low, worryingly so for those with no neurology appointment in the previous 12 months. A nurse-supported pathway can improve appointment rates, but the effect is modest. Further service redesign is required; the impact of which should be rigorously evaluated.