Assessing the individual benefits of reducing HIV diagnosis delay and increasing adherence to HIV care and treatment.

We used an agent-based simulation model (Progression and Transmission of HIV) to follow for 20 years a cohort of persons in the United States infected with HIV in 2015. We assessed the benefits of reducing the delay between HIV infection and diagnosis and increasing adherence to HIV care and treatment on the percent of persons surviving 20 years after infection, average annual HIV transmission rates, and time spent virally suppressed. We examined average diagnosis delays of 1.0-7.0 years, monthly care drop-out rates of 5% to 0.1%, and combinations of these strategies. The percent of the cohort surviving the first 20 years of infection varied from 70.8% to 77.5%, and the annual transmission risk, from 1.5 to 5.2 HIV transmissions per 100 person-years. Thus, individuals can enhance their survival and reduce their risk of transmission to partners by frequent testing for HIV and adhering to care and treatment.

A mathematical model to estimate the state-specific impact of the Health Resources and Services Administration's Ryan White HIV/AIDS Program.

BACKGROUND: Access to and engagement in high-quality HIV medical care and treatment is essential for ending the HIV epidemic. The Health Resources and Services Administration's (HRSA) Ryan White HIV/AIDS Program (RWHAP) plays a critical role in ensuring that people living with diagnosed HIV (PLWH) are linked to and consistently engaged in high quality care and receive HIV medication in a timely manner. State variation in HIV prevalence, the proportion of PLWH served by the RWHAP, and local health care environments could influence the state-specific impact of the RWHAP. This analysis sought to measure the state-specific impact of the RWHAP on the HIV service delivery system and health outcomes for PLWH, and presents template language to communicate this impact for state planning and stakeholder engagement. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The HRSA's HIV/AIDS Bureau (HAB) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Division of HIV/AIDS Prevention (CDC DHAP) have developed a mathematical model to estimate the state-specific impact of the RWHAP. This model was parameterized using RWHAP data, HIV surveillance data, an existing CDC model of HIV transmission and disease progression, and parameters from the literature. In this study, the model was used to analyze the hypothetical scenario of an absence of the RWHAP and to calculate the projected impact of this scenario on RWHAP clients, RWHAP-funded providers, mortality, new HIV cases, and costs compared with the current state inclusive of the RWHAP. To demonstrate the results of the model, we selected two states, representing high HIV prevalence and low HIV prevalence areas. These states serve to demonstrate the functionality of the model and how state-specific results can be translated into a state-specific impact statement using template language. CONCLUSIONS: In the example states presented, the RWHAP provides HIV care, treatment, and support services to a large proportion of PLWH in each state. The absence of the RWHAP in these states could result in substantially more deaths and HIV cases than currently observed, resulting in considerable lifetime HIV care and treatment costs associated with additional HIV cases. State-specific impact statements may be valuable in the development of state-level HIV prevention and care plans or for communications with planning bodies, state health department leadership, and other stakeholders. State-specific impact statements will be available to RWHAP Part B recipients upon request from HRSA's HIV/AIDS Bureau.

Effects of Reaching National Goals on HIV Incidence, by Race and Ethnicity, in the United States.

CONTEXT: Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) incidence and prevalence in the United States are characterized by significant disparities by race/ethnicity. National HIV care goals, such as boosting to 90% the proportion of persons whose HIV is diagnosed and increasing to 80% the proportion of persons living with diagnosed HIV who are virally suppressed, will likely reduce HIV incidence, but their effects on HIV-related disparities are uncertain. OBJECTIVE: We sought to understand by race/ethnicity how current HIV care varies, the level of effort required to achieve national HIV care goals, and the effects of reaching those goals on HIV incidence and disparities. DESIGN: Using a dynamic model of HIV transmission, we identified 2016 progress along the HIV care continuum among blacks, Hispanics, and whites/others compared with national 2020 goals. We examined disparities over time. SETTING: United States. PARTICIPANTS: Beginning in 2006, our dynamic compartmental model simulated the sexually active US population 13 to 64 years of age, which was stratified into 195 subpopulations by transmission group, sex, race/ethnicity, age, male circumcision status, and HIV risk level. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: We compared HIV cumulative incidence from 2016 to 2020 when goals were reached compared with base case assumptions about progression along the HIV care continuum. RESULTS: The 2016 proportion of persons with diagnosed HIV who were on treatment and virally suppressed was 50% among blacks, 56% among Hispanics, and 61% among whites/others, compared with a national goal of 80%. When diagnosis, linkage, and viral suppression goals were reached in 2020, cumulative HIV incidence fell by 32% (uncertainty range: 18%-37%) for blacks, 25% (22%-31%) for Hispanics, and 25% (21%-28%) for whites/others. Disparity measures changed little. CONCLUSIONS: Achieving national HIV care goals will require different levels of effort by race/ethnicity but likely will result in substantial declines in cumulative HIV incidence. HIV-related disparities in incidence and prevalence may be difficult to resolve.

Design of the national health security preparedness index.

The importance of health security in the United States has been highlighted by recent emergencies such as the H1N1 influenza pandemic, Superstorm Sandy, and the Boston Marathon bombing. The nation's health security remains a high priority today, with federal, state, territorial, tribal, and local governments, as well as nongovernment organizations and the private sector, engaging in activities that prevent, protect, mitigate, respond to, and recover from health threats. The Association of State and Territorial Health Officials (ASTHO), through a cooperative agreement with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Office of Public Health Preparedness and Response (OPHPR), led an effort to create an annual measure of health security preparedness at the national level. The collaborative released the National Health Security Preparedness Index (NHSPI(™)) in December 2013 and provided composite results for the 50 states and for the nation as a whole. The Index results represent current levels of health security preparedness in a consistent format and provide actionable information to drive decision making for continuous improvement of the nation's health security. The overall 2013 National Index result was 7.2 on the reported base-10 scale, with areas of greater strength in the domains of health surveillance, incident and information management, and countermeasure management. The strength of the Index relies on the interdependencies of the many elements in health security preparedness, making the sum greater than its parts. Moving forward, additional health security-related disciplines and measures will be included alongside continued validation efforts.