Diagnostic accuracy of signs and symptoms in acute coronary syndrome and acute myocardial infarction.

BACKGROUND: Acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and acute myocardial infarction (AMI) account for a large portion of cardiovascular deaths. Signs and symptoms for these syndromes, such as chest pain, are non-specific and can be caused by a variety of non-cardiac conditions, especially in low-prevalence settings such as general practice. The diagnostic value of these signs and symptoms can be assessed using diagnostic meta-analyses, but the last one dates from 2012. METHODS: We performed a diagnostic meta-analysis in accordance with PRISMA guidelines. We searched PubMed, Embase and CENTRAL from 2006 to 2024. We included studies that assessed the diagnostic accuracy of thirteen different signs and symptoms. We divided patients into two subgroups (AMI and ACS) on which analysis was performed independently. RESULTS: We selected 24 articles for inclusion. Our analysis indicates that signs and symptoms have a limited role in the diagnosis of AMI or ACS. The most useful (highest diagnostic odds ratios, DOR) in the diagnosis of AMI were pain radiating to both arms (DOR 2.95 (95%CI 1.57-5.06)), absence of chest wall tenderness (DOR 3.51 (95%CI 1.64-6.61)), pain radiating to the right arm (DOR 5.17 (95%CI 1.77-11.9)) and sweating (DOR 5.75 (95%CI 2.51-11.4)). For ACS these were pain radiating to the right arm (DOR 3.9 (95%CI 0.7-12.6)) and absence of chest wall tenderness (DOR 7.73 (95%CI 2.19-19.8)). CONCLUSION: We report the accuracy of thirteen signs and symptoms in the diagnosis of AMI and ACS. These can be useful to calibrate general practitioners' diagnostic assessment of chest pain in primary care settings.

Assessment of with sulfonylurea use in type 2 diabetes mellitus: A retrospective cohort study.

AIMS: The utilization of sulfonylurea (SU) for the management of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) has witnessed a decline, attributed to the rising popularity of alternative medications and uncertainties surrounding the cardiovascular risk profile of SUs. This study aimed to investigate the potential association between SU intake and the incidence of cardiovascular events in patients with T2DM. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study, based on a general practice (GP) registry, was designed, encompassing patients diagnosed with T2DM between 2005 and 2014.Follow-up persisted until the occurrence of a cardiovascular event, loss to follow-up, or until December 31, 2022. Comparative analyses were conducted between patients, receiving SU treatment and those without RESULTS: Data from a cohort comprising 5589 patients revealed that 13 % and 13.1 % of individuals in the comparator group and the SU group, respectively, experienced a cardiovascular event. However, no statistically significant elevation in the risk of cardiovascular events was observed after SU usage. Furthermore, the glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) levels were significantly higher in the SU group (7.0 % vs. 6.4 %, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The findings from this study indicate that the use of sulfonylureas SUs is not associated with a statistically significant increase in the risk of cardiovascular events among patients with type T2DM. These results contribute to the ongoing discourse on the safety and efficacy of SU therapy in diabetes management.

Development of quality indicators for hypertension, extractable from the electronic health record of the general practitioner: a rand-modified Delphi method.

BACKGROUND: Hypertension, a chronic medical condition affecting millions of people worldwide, is a leading cause of cardiovascular diseases. A multidisciplinary approach is needed to reduce the burden of the disease, with general practitioners playing a vital role. Therefore, it is crucial that GPs provide high-quality care that is standardized and based on the most recent European guidelines. Quality indicators (QIs) can be used to assess the performance, outcomes, or processes of healthcare delivery and are critical in helping healthcare professionals identify areas of improvement and measure progress towards achieving desired health outcomes. However, QIs to evaluate the care of patients with hypertension in general practice have been studied to a limited extent. The aim of our study is to define quality indicators for hypertension in general practice that are extractable from the electronic health record (EHR) and can be used to evaluate and improve the quality of care for hypertensive patients in the general practice setting. METHODS: We used a Rand-modified Delphi procedure. We extracted recommendations from European guidelines and assembled them into an online questionnaire. An initial scoring based on the SMART principle and extractability from the EHR was performed by panel members, these results were analyzed using a Median Likert score, prioritization and degree of consensus. A consensus meeting was set up in which all the recommendations were discussed, followed by a final validation round. RESULTS: Our study extracted 115 recommendations. After analysis of the online questionnaire round and a consensus meeting round, 37 recommendations were accepted and 75 were excluded. Of these 37 recommendations, 9 were slightly modified and 4 were combined into 2 recommendations, resulting in a list of 35 recommendations. All recommendations of the final set were translated to QIs, made up of 7 QIs on screening, 6 QIs on diagnosis, 11 QIs on treatment, 5 QIs on outcome and 6 QIs on follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: Our study resulted in a set of 35 QIs for hypertension in general practice. These QIs, tailored to the Belgian EHR, provide a robust foundation for automated audit and feedback and could substantially benefit other countries if adapted to their systems.

The Use of COVID-19 Mobile Apps in Connecting Patients with Primary Healthcare in 30 Countries: Eurodata Study.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has necessitated changes in European healthcare systems, with a significant proportion of COVID-19 cases being managed on an outpatient basis in primary healthcare (PHC). To alleviate the burden on healthcare facilities, many European countries developed contact-tracing apps and symptom checkers to identify potential cases. As the pandemic evolved, the European Union introduced the Digital COVID-19 Certificate for travel, which relies on vaccination, recent recovery, or negative test results. However, the integration between these apps and PHC has not been thoroughly explored in Europe. OBJECTIVE: To describe if governmental COVID-19 apps allowed COVID-19 patients to connect with PHC through their apps in Europe and to examine how the Digital COVID-19 Certificate was obtained. METHODOLOGY: Design and setting: Retrospective descriptive study in PHC in 30 European countries. An ad hoc, semi-structured questionnaire was developed to collect country-specific data on primary healthcare activity during the COVID-19 pandemic and the use of information technology tools to support medical care from 15 March 2020 to 31 August 2021. Key informants belong to the WONCA Europe network (World Organization of Family Doctors). The data were collected from relevant and reliable official sources, such as governmental websites and guidelines. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Patient's first contact with health system, governmental COVID-19 app (name and function), Digital COVID-19 Certification, COVID-19 app connection with PHC. RESULTS: Primary care was the first point of care for suspected COVID-19 patients in 28 countries, and 24 countries developed apps to complement classical medical care. The most frequently developed app was for tracing COVID-19 cases (24 countries), followed by the Digital COVID-19 Certificate app (17 countries). Bulgaria, Italy, Serbia, North Macedonia, and Romania had interoperability between PHC and COVID-19 apps, and Poland and Romania's apps considered social needs. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 apps were widely created during the first pandemic year. Contact tracing was the most frequent function found in the registered apps. Connection with PHC was scarcely developed. In future pandemics, connections between health system levels should be guaranteed to develop and implement effective strategies for managing diseases.

The ESSAG-trial protocol: A randomized controlled trial evaluating the efficacy of offering a self-sampling kit by the GP to reach women underscreened in the routine cervical cancer screening program.

BACKGROUND: In Flanders (Belgium), women not screened for cervical cancer (CC) within the last three years receive an invitation letter from the regional screening organization, the Centre for Cancer Detection (CCD), encouraging them to have a cervical specimen taken by their general practitioner (GP) or gynecologist. However, the coverage for CC screening remains suboptimal (63%). The offer of a self-sampling kit (SSK, for HPV testing) by a GP may trigger participation among women who do not attend regular screening. METHODS: The ESSAG-trial is a cluster-randomized controlled trial with three arms, each including 1125 women aged 31-64 years, who were not screened for CC in the last 6 years. In arm A, GPs offer a SSK when eligible women consult for any reason. In arm B, women receive a personal GP signed invitation letter including an SSK at their home address. In the control arm, women receive the standard invitation letter from the CCD. The primary outcome is the response rate at three months after inclusion. Secondary outcomes are: screen test positivity; compliance with foreseen follow-up among screen-positives; costs per invited and per screened women; as well as contrasts between trial arms and between socio-demographic categories. CONCLUSION: The ESSAG-trial will assess the effect of GP-based interventions using SSKs on CC screening participation among hard-to-reach populations. Findings will inform policymakers about feasible strategies on increasing CC screening that may be rolled-out throughout the whole region. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT05656976.

Clinical audit of quality of care among patients with viral hepatitis in primary care in a low endemic region.

BACKGROUND: The current hepatitis B (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) screening practices may fail to detect many infected patients who could benefit from new therapeutic agents to limit progression to cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. OBJECTIVES: This study assessed the test positivity rate and cascade of care of viral hepatitis patients in primary care in a low endemic region as well as the testing policy of abnormal alanine aminotransferase (ALT) level. METHODS: This is a retrospective clinical audit among primary health care practices in Flanders, Belgium, assessing patients with an active medical file between 2019 and 2021. RESULTS: A total of 84/89 (94.4%) primary health care practices participated representing 621,573 patients of which 1069 patients (0.17%) were registered as having viral hepatitis, not further specified. Detailed information was available from 38 practices representing 243,723/621,573 (39.2%) patients of which 169 (0.07%) were HBsAg positive and 99 (0.04%) anti-HCV positive. A total of 96/134(71.6%) chronic HBV-infected and 31/77(40.3%) chronic HCV-infected patients were referred to a hepatologist. A total of 30,573/621,573(4.9%) patients had an abnormal ALT level, and by at random selection, more detailed information was obtained on 211 patients. Information on high-risk groups was missing in up to 60%. In patients with abnormal ALT level, HBsAg and anti-HCV testing were conducted in 37/211(17.5%) and 25/211(11.8%), respectively. CONCLUSION: In a low endemic region, the testing rate and cascade of care of HBV and HCV-infected patients can be improved in primary care, especially in high-risk groups and patients with abnormal ALT levels.

Infections with the hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) are a leading cause of death worldwide. Over the last decade, several new therapeutic agents have been developed and can now prevent hepatitis-related deaths. Awareness and increasing testing rates for viral hepatitis in primary care could therefore contribute to control these diseases. The findings of our clinical audit among primary health care practices in Flanders, Belgium demonstrate that screening for HBV and HCV infection can be improved in primary health care in a low endemic region, especially in high-risk groups (e.g. migrants who originate from an endemic country) and patients with abnormal ALT level. The observed suboptimal testing rate in primary health care may be due to a lack of information on risk groups. Future research should focus on interventions to enhance testing, linkage to care, and treatment initiation for HBV and HCV infection among well-defined risk groups in primary health care.

Model-based disease mapping using primary care registry data.

BACKGROUND: Spatial modeling of disease risk using primary care registry data is promising for public health surveillance. However, it remains unclear to which extent challenges such as spatially disproportionate sampling and practice-specific reporting variation affect statistical inference. METHODS: Using lower respiratory tract infection data from the INTEGO registry, modeled with a logistic model incorporating patient characteristics, a spatially structured random effect at municipality level, and an unstructured random effect at practice level, we conducted a case and simulation study to assess the impact of these challenges on spatial trend estimation. RESULTS: Even with spatial imbalance and practice-specific reporting variation, the model performed well. Performance improved with increasing spatial sample balance and decreasing practice-specific variation. CONCLUSION: Our findings indicate that, with correction for reporting efforts, primary care registries are valuable for spatial trend estimation. The diversity of patient locations within practice populations plays an important role.

Using a general practice research database to assess the spatio-temporal COVID-19 risk.

BACKGROUND: In Flanders, general practitioners (GPs) were among the first ones to collect data regarding COVID-19 cases. Intego is a GPs' morbidity registry in primary care with data collected from the electronic medical records from a sample of general practices. The Intego database contain elaborate information regarding patient characteristics, such as comorbidities. At the national level, the Belgian Public Health Institute (Sciensano) recorded all test-confirmed COVID-19 cases, but without other patient characteristics. METHODS: Spatio and spatio-temporal analyses were used to analyse the spread of COVID-19 incidence at two levels of spatial aggregation: the municipality and the health sector levels. Our study goal was to compare spatio-temporal modelling results based on the Intego and Sciensano data, in order to see whether the Intego database is capable of detecting epidemiological trends similar to those in the Sciensano data. Comparable results would allow researchers to use these Intego data, and their wealth of patient information, to model COVID-19-related processes. RESULTS: The two data sources provided comparable results. Being a male decreased the odds of having COVID-19 disease. The odds for the age categories (17,35], (35,65] and (65,110] of being a confirmed COVID-19 case were significantly higher than the odds for the age category [0,17]. In the Intego data, having one of the following comorbidities, i.e., chronic kidney disease, heart and vascular disease, and diabetes, was significantly associated with being a COVID-19 case, increasing the odds of being diagnosed with COVID-19. CONCLUSION: We were able to show how an alternative data source, the Intego data, can be used in a pandemic situation. We consider our findings useful for public health officials who plan intervention strategies aimed at monitor and control disease outbreaks such as that of COVID-19.

Association between non-registration of chronic kidney disease and mortality and cardiovascular outcome: a time-to-event analysis of retrospective primary care data.

OBJECTIVE: Patients with impaired kidney function and increased albuminuria are at risk of developing cardiovascular disease (CVD). Previous research has revealed that a substantial proportion of patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) do not get a registered diagnosis in the electronic health record of the general practitioner. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between non-registration of CKD and all-cause mortality and cardiovascular outcome. DESIGN AND SETTING: A retrospective study in primary care. METHODS: The analyses were carried out in the INTEGO database, a general practice-based morbidity registration network in Flanders, Belgium. The study used INTEGO data from the year 2018 for all patients ≥18 years old, including 10 551 patients. To assess the risk of mortality and CVD, a time-to-event analysis was performed. Cox proportional hazard model was used to evaluate the association between non-registration and incidence of all-cause mortality and cardiovascular events with mortality as a competing risk. Subgroup analyses were performed for estimated glomerular filtration rate stages (3A, 3B, 4 and 5). Multiple imputation was done following the methodology of Mamouris et al. RESULTS: Mortality was higher in patients with non-registered CKD compared with patients with registered CKD (HR 1.29, 95% CI 1.19 to 1.41). Non-registration of CKD was not associated with an increased risk for the development of CVD (HR 0.92, 95% CI 0.77 to 1.11). CONCLUSION: An association between non-registration and all-cause mortality was identified, although no such association was apparent for CVD.

Temporal trends in antibiotic prescribing and serious and nonserious infections in children presenting to general practice: a registry-based longitudinal cohort study of 162 507 individuals.

BACKGROUND: It is crucial to understand the trends in paediatric antibiotic prescribing and serious and nonserious infections to improve antibiotic prescribing practices for children in ambulatory care. OBJECTIVES: Assessing trends in paediatric antibiotic prescribing and infection incidence in general practice from 2002 to 2022. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study using INTEGO network data from 162 507 patients in Flanders (Belgium), we calculated antibiotic prescribing rates and proportions alongside incidence rates of serious and nonserious infections, stratified by age (0-1, 2-6, 7-12 years) and municipality. We performed autoregressive moving average time-series analyses and seasonality analyses. RESULTS: From 2002 to 2022, antibiotic prescribing rate decreased significantly: 584/1000 person-years (PY) (95% CI 571-597) to 484/1000PY (95% CI 478-491); so did antibiotic overall prescribing proportion: 46.3% (95% CI 45.1-47.6) to 23.3% (95% CI 22.9-23.7) (59.3% amoxicillin and 17.8% broad spectrum). Prescribing proportions dropped significantly for nonserious (45.6% to 20.9%) and increased for serious infections (64.1% to 69.8%). Proportions significantly dropped for acute suppurative otitis media (74.7% to 64.1%), upper respiratory tract infections (44.9% to 16.6%), bronchitis/bronchiolitis (73.6% to 44.1%) and acute tonsillopharyngitis (59.5% to 21.7%), while significantly increasing for pneumonia (65.2% to 80.2%). Nonserious and serious infection incidence rates increased from 785/1000PY and 34.2/1000PY to 1223/1000PY and 64.1/1000PY, respectively. Blood and CRP testing proportions increased significantly. CONCLUSIONS: Antibiotic prescribing in general practice for children declined from 2002 to 2022. Further targeted antibiotic stewardship initiatives are needed to reduce the use of broad-spectrum antibiotics and antibiotic prescribing for conditions such as otitis media and bronchitis/bronchiolitis.

Developing a questionnaire to evaluate an automated audit & feedback intervention: a Rand-modified Delphi method.

BACKGROUND: Audit and feedback (A&F) is a widely used implementation strategy to evaluate and improve medical practice. The optimal design of an A&F system is uncertain and structured process evaluations are currently lacking. This study aimed to develop and validate a questionnaire to evaluate the use of automated A&F systems. METHODS: Based on the Clinical Performance Feedback Intervention Theory (CP-FIT) and the REFLECT-52 (REassessing audit & Feedback interventions: a tooL for Evaluating Compliance with suggested besT practices) evaluation tool a questionnaire was designed for the purpose of evaluating automated A&F systems. A Rand-modified Delphi method was used to develop the process evaluation and obtain validation. Fourteen experts from different domains in primary care consented to participate and individually scored the questions on a 9-point Likert scale. Afterwards, the questions were discussed in a consensus meeting. After approval, the final questionnaire was compiled. RESULTS: A 34-question questionnaire composed of 57 items was developed and presented to the expert panel. The consensus meeting resulted in a selection of 31 questions, subdivided into 43 items. A final list of 30 questions consisting of 42 items was obtained. CONCLUSION: A questionnaire consisting of 30 questions was drawn up for the assessment and improvement of automated A&F systems, based on CP-FIT and REFLECT-52 theory and approved by experts. Next steps will be piloting and implementation of the questionnaire.

Epidemiology of functional dyspepsia and gastroparesis as diagnosed in Flemish-Belgian primary care: A registry-based study from the Intego database.

BACKGROUND: Dyspepsia is a prevalent condition in the general population. Besides organic causes, the differential diagnosis of dyspepsia includes functional dyspepsia (FD) and gastroparesis (GP) which share similar pathophysiological mechanisms and clinical presentation. So far, no study investigated the prevalence of FD and GP in a primary care in Belgium. METHODS: Data were obtained from Intego, a Flemish-Belgian general practice-based morbidity registration network. From 586,164 patients between 2000 and 2021, we selected patients with ICD-10 code for FD and GP. Patients with organic gastrointestinal diseases were excluded. We determined demographics and comorbidities of FD/GP. For prevalence and incidence calculation, we included those who consulted their general practitioners at least once in the given year. Pair-wise comparison was conducted to access the impact of comorbidities on risk of FD/GP. KEY RESULTS: Between 2011 and 2021, the prevalence of FD/GP ranged from 1.03% to 1.21%. The incidence of FD/GP ranged from 109 to 142 per 100,000 adults. In total 5242 cases of FD/GP were identified. These cases shared commonly coexisting diagnoses of gastroesophageal reflux disease (18.8%), irritable bowel syndrome (17.1%), and chronic constipation (18.7%). Patients with somatization/anxiety/depression had significantly higher risk of FD/GP, compared to the control (OR 1.38, 95% CI 1.19-1.61, p < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS AND INFERENCES: The prevalence (1.03%-1.21%) and incidence (109-142/100,000) of FD/GP in primary care over last decade appear to conflict with epidemiological research in the general population. The discrepancies suggest a potential lack of awareness of FD and GP among physicians and/or patients in Flemish-Belgium.

How to Evaluate Online Education for General Practitioners: Development of a Tailored Questionnaire for Heart Failure Education.

Physician-oriented online education could be a pathway to improve care for patients with heart failure, however, it is difficult to measure the impact of such education. Self-efficacy is a potential outcome measure. In this article, we develop a methodology for analyzing an educational intervention for general practitioners (GPs) using self-efficacy as a concept. This study was partly conducted within the setting of an observational study, IMPACT-B, where we developed online education for GPs. We designed and refined a 24-item questionnaire using item analysis, and exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis. Ninety-one GPs completed the questionnaire before and after the online education. Follow-up data after 6 months was available for 13 GPs. Item analysis revealed a high degree of internal consistency (coefficient alpha 0.95) and validity. Each additional year of experience was associated with an average baseline self-efficacy score of 0.50 points (95% CI [0.21-0.80]), and each additional patient in HF follow-up with an average score of 2.0 points (95% CI [0.48-3.5]). Items that differentiated most between GPs with high and low self-efficacy were the treatment of congestion as well as titrating medication and MRA in heart failure with reduced ejection fraction. Factor analysis reduced the number of questions to 14, mapping to three factors (diagnosis, treatment, and follow-up), and improved the model fit as measured by the goodness-of-fit indicator comparative-fit-index (from 0.83 to 0.91). We demonstrated a method to assess the impact of online education on general practitioners. This led to a questionnaire that was reliable, valid, and convenient to use in an implementation context.

Primary care indicators for disease burden, monitoring and surveillance of COVID-19 in 31 European countries: Eurodata Study.

BACKGROUND: During the COVID-19 pandemic, the majority of patients received ambulatory treatment, highlighting the importance of primary health care (PHC). However, there is limited knowledge regarding PHC workload in Europe during this period. The utilization of COVID-19 PHC indicators could facilitate the efficient monitoring and coordination of the pandemic response. The objective of this study is to describe PHC indicators for disease surveillance and monitoring of COVID-19's impact in Europe. METHODS: Descriptive, cross-sectional study employing data obtained through a semi-structured ad hoc questionnaire, which was collectively agreed upon by all participants. The study encompasses PHC settings in 31 European countries from March 2020 to August 2021. Key-informants from each country answered the questionnaire. Main outcome: the identification of any indicator used to describe PHC COVID-19 activity. RESULTS: Out of the 31 countries surveyed, data on PHC information were obtained from 14. The principal indicators were: total number of cases within PHC (Belarus, Cyprus, Italy, Romania and Spain), number of follow-up cases (Croatia, Cyprus, Finland, Spain and Turkey), GP's COVID-19 tests referrals (Poland), proportion of COVID-19 cases among respiratory illnesses consultations (Norway and France), sick leaves issued by GPs (Romania and Spain) and examination and complementary tests (Cyprus). All COVID-19 cases were attended in PHC in Belarus and Italy. CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 pandemic exposes a crucial deficiency in preparedness for infectious diseases in European health systems highlighting the inconsistent recording of indicators within PHC organizations. PHC standardized indicators and public data accessibility are urgently needed, conforming the foundation for an effective European-level health services response framework against future pandemics.

Monitoring COVID-19 in Belgian general practice: A tool for syndromic surveillance based on electronic health records.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 may initially manifest as flu-like symptoms. As such, general practitioners (GPs) will likely to play an important role in monitoring the pandemic through syndromic surveillance. OBJECTIVES: To present a COVID-19 syndromic surveillance tool in Belgian general practices. METHODS: We performed a nationwide observational prospective study in Belgian general practices. The surveillance tool extracted the daily entries of diagnostic codes for COVID-19 and associated conditions (suspected or confirmed COVID-19, acute respiratory infection and influenza-like illness) from electronic medical records. We calculated the 7-day rolling average for these diagnoses and compared them with data from two other Belgian population-based sources (laboratory-confirmed new COVID-19 cases and hospital admissions for COVID-19), using time series analysis. We also collected data from users and stakeholders about the syndromic surveillance tool and performed a thematic analysis. RESULTS: 4773 out of 11,935 practising GPs in Belgium participated in the study. The curve of contacts for suspected COVID-19 followed a similar trend compared with the curves of the official data sources: laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases and hospital admissions but with a 10-day delay for the latter. Data were quickly available and useful for decision making, but some technical and methodological components can be improved, such as a greater standardisation between EMR software developers. CONCLUSION: The syndromic surveillance tool for COVID-19 in primary care provides rapidly available data useful in all phases of the COVID-19 pandemic to support data-driven decision-making. Potential enhancements were identified for a prospective surveillance tool.

Data extracted daily from electronic medical records can be used to monitor the COVID-19 pandemic in general practice.The Barometer provided rapidly available data to support data-driven decision-making.Improvements such as a greater standardisation were identified for a potential future tool using the same technology.

Assessing mental health from registry data: What is the best proxy?

OBJECTIVE: Medical registries frequently underestimate the prevalence of health problems compared with surveys. This study aimed to determine the registry variables that can serve as a proxy for variables studied in a mental health survey. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Prevalences of depressive symptoms, anxiety and psychoactive medication use from the 2018 Belgian Health Interview Survey (HIS) were compared with same-year prevalences from INTEGO, a Belgian primary care registry. Participants aged 15 and above were included. We assessed correlation using Spearman's rho (SR), and agreement using the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC). We also calculated the limits of agreement (LOAs) for each comparison. HIS questions about depressive symptoms, anxiety and psychoactive medication use were compared with the following variables from INTEGO: symptom codes, diagnosis codes, free text, antidepressant/benzodiazepine prescriptions and the combinations symptom + diagnosis codes and symptom + diagnosis codes + free text, wherever relevant. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: Correlation between the HIS and INTEGO was generally high, except for anxiety. Agreement ranged from fair to poor, but increased when combining certain variables, by including free text, or by increasing the prescription frequency to resemble chronic use. Agreement remained poor when comparing questions about anxiety. Prevalences from INTEGO were mostly underestimates. CONCLUSION: The external validity of medical registries can be poor, especially compared with survey data. A considerate choice of variables and prescription chronicity is needed to accurately use a registry as a surveillance tool for mental health.

The role of primary health care in long-term care facilities during the COVID-19 pandemic in 30 European countries: a retrospective descriptive study (Eurodata study).

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Primary health care (PHC) supported long-term care facilities (LTCFs) in attending COVID-19 patients. The aim of this study is to describe the role of PHC in LTCFs in Europe during the early phase of the pandemic. METHODS: Retrospective descriptive study from 30 European countries using data from September 2020 collected with an ad hoc semi-structured questionnaire. Related variables are SARS-CoV-2 testing, contact tracing, follow-up, additional testing, and patient care. RESULTS: Twenty-six out of the 30 European countries had PHC involvement in LTCFs during the COVID-19 pandemic. PHC participated in initial medical care in 22 countries, while, in 15, PHC was responsible for SARS-CoV-2 test along with other institutions. Supervision of individuals in isolation was carried out mostly by LTCF staff, but physical examination or symptom's follow-up was performed mainly by PHC. CONCLUSION: PHC has participated in COVID-19 pandemic assistance in LTCFs in coordination with LTCF staff, public health officers, and hospitals.

The optimal healthy ranges of thyroid function defined by the risk of cardiovascular disease and mortality: systematic review and individual participant data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Reference intervals of thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) and free thyroxine (FT4) are statistically defined by the 2·5-97·5th percentiles, without accounting for potential risk of clinical outcomes. We aimed to define the optimal healthy ranges of TSH and FT4 based on the risk of cardiovascular disease and mortality. METHODS: This systematic review and individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis identified eligible prospective cohorts through the Thyroid Studies Collaboration, supplemented with a systematic search via Embase, MEDLINE (Ovid), Web of science, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and Google Scholar from Jan 1, 2011, to Feb 12, 2017 with an updated search to Oct 13, 2022 (cohorts found in the second search were not included in the IPD). We included cohorts that collected TSH or FT4, and cardiovascular outcomes or mortality for adults (aged ≥18 years). We excluded cohorts that included solely pregnant women, individuals with overt thyroid diseases, and individuals with cardiovascular disease. We contacted the study investigators of eligible cohorts to provide IPD on demographics, TSH, FT4, thyroid peroxidase antibodies, history of cardiovascular disease and risk factors, medication use, cardiovascular disease events, cardiovascular disease mortality, and all-cause mortality. The primary outcome was a composite outcome including cardiovascular disease events (coronary heart disease, stroke, and heart failure) and all-cause mortality. Secondary outcomes were the separate assessment of cardiovascular disease events, all-cause mortality, and cardiovascular disease mortality. We performed one-step (cohort-stratified Cox models) and two-step (random-effects models) meta-analyses adjusting for age, sex, smoking, systolic blood pressure, diabetes, and total cholesterol. The study was registered with PROSPERO, CRD42017057576. FINDINGS: We identified 3935 studies, of which 53 cohorts fulfilled the inclusion criteria and 26 cohorts agreed to participate. We included IPD on 134 346 participants with a median age of 59 years (range 18-106) at baseline. There was a J-shaped association of FT4 with the composite outcome and secondary outcomes, with the 20th (median 13·5 pmol/L [IQR 11·2-13·9]) to 40th percentiles (median 14·8 pmol/L [12·3-15·0]) conveying the lowest risk. Compared with the 20-40th percentiles, the age-adjusted and sex-adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for FT4 in the 80-100th percentiles was 1·20 (95% CI 1·11-1·31) for the composite outcome, 1·34 (1·20-1·49) for all-cause mortality, 1·57 (1·31-1·89) for cardiovascular disease mortality, and 1·22 (1·11-1·33) for cardiovascular disease events. In individuals aged 70 years and older, the 10-year absolute risk of composite outcome increased over 5% for women with FT4 greater than the 85th percentile (median 17·6 pmol/L [IQR 15·0-18·3]), and men with FT4 greater than the 75th percentile (16·7 pmol/L [14·0-17·4]). Non-linear associations were identified for TSH, with the 60th (median 1·90 mIU/L [IQR 1·68-2·25]) to 80th percentiles (2·90 mIU/L [2·41-3·32]) associated with the lowest risk of cardiovascular disease and mortality. Compared with the 60-80th percentiles, the age-adjusted and sex-adjusted HR of TSH in the 0-20th percentiles was 1·07 (95% CI 1·02-1·12) for the composite outcome, 1·09 (1·05-1·14) for all-cause mortality, and 1·07 (0·99-1·16) for cardiovascular disease mortality. INTERPRETATION: There was a J-shaped association of FT4 with cardiovascular disease and mortality. Low concentrations of TSH were associated with a higher risk of all-cause mortality and cardiovascular disease mortality. The 20-40th percentiles of FT4 and the 60-80th percentiles of TSH could represent the optimal healthy ranges of thyroid function based on the risk of cardiovascular disease and mortality, with more than 5% increase of 10-year composite risk identified for FT4 greater than the 85th percentile in women and men older than 70 years. We propose a feasible approach to establish the optimal healthy ranges of thyroid function, allowing for better identification of individuals with a higher risk of thyroid-related outcomes. FUNDING: None.

A longitudinal transition imputation model for categorical data applied to a large registry dataset.

Imputation of longitudinal categorical covariates with several waves and many predictors is cumbersome in terms of implausible transitions, colinearity, and overfitting. We designed a simulation study with data obtained from a general practitioners' morbidity registry in Belgium for three waves, with smoking as the longitudinal covariate of interest. We set varying proportions of data on smoking to missing completely at random and missing not at random with proportions of missingness equal to 10%, 30%, 50%, and 70%. This study proposed a 3-stage approach that allows flexibility when imputing time-dependent categorical covariates. First, multiple imputation using fully conditional specification or multiple imputation for the predictor variables was deployed using the wide format such that previous and future information of the same patient was utilized. Second, a joint Markov transition model for initial, forward, backward, and intermittent probabilities was developed for each imputed dataset. Finally, this transition model was used for imputation. We compared the performance of this methodology with an analyses of the complete data and with listwise deletion in terms of bias and root mean square error. Next, we applied this methodology in a clinical case for years 2017 to 2021, where we estimated the effect of several covariates on the pneumococcal vaccination. This methodological framework ensures that the plausibility of transitions is preserved, overfitting and colinearity issues are resolved, and confounders can be utilized. Finally, a companion R package was developed to enable the replication and easy application of this methodology.

Predictors for unplanned hospital admissions in community dwelling adults: A dynamic cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Polypharmacy and inappropriate medication use are associated with unplanned hospital admissions. Targeted interventions might reduce the hospitalization risk. Yet, it remains unclear which patient profiles derive the largest benefit from such interventions. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to determine independent risk factors, among which polypharmacy, for unplanned hospital admissions in a cohort of community dwelling adults. METHODS: A retrospective study was performed using a large general practice registry and an insurance database in Flanders, Belgium. Community dwelling adults aged 40 years or older with data for 2013-2015 were included. The index date was the last general practitioner contact in 2014. Determinants were collected during the preceding year. Unplanned hospital admissions were determined during the year after the index date. Univariable logistic regression models were fitted on each risk factor for an unplanned hospital admission as the primary outcome. Two multivariable models were derived. RESULTS: In total, 40411 patients were included and 2126 (5.26%) experienced an unplanned hospital admission. Mean age was 58.3 (±12.3) years. The two models identified the following determinants for an unplanned hospital admission: excessive polypharmacy, older age, male sex, number of comorbidities, atrial fibrillation, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease or stroke, low hemoglobin, use of hypnotics, antipsychotics, antidepressants or antiepileptics and prior hospital and general practitioner visits. Prior hospital visits was the largest determinant. CONCLUSIONS: In our study we identified and confirmed the presence of known determinants for unplanned hospital admissions in community dwelling adults, most of which align with a geriatric phenotype. Our findings can inform the allocation of interventions aiming to reduce unplanned hospital admissions.