Potential determinants of the decline in mpox cases in Belgium: a behavioral, epidemiological and seroprevalence study.

OBJECTIVE: The 2022 mpox epidemic reached a peak in Belgium and the rest of Europe in July 2022, after which it unexpectedly subsided. This study investigates epidemiological, behavioral, and immunological factors behind the waning of the epidemic in Belgium. METHODS: We investigated temporal evolutions in the characteristics and behavior of mpox patients using national surveillance data and data from a prospective registry of mpox patients in the Institute of Tropical Medicine (Antwerp). We studied behavioral changes in the population at risk using a survey among HIV-pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) users. We determined the seroprevalence of anti-orthopoxvirus antibodies among HIV-PrEP users across four time points in 2022. RESULTS: Mpox patients diagnosed at the end of the epidemic had less sexual risk behavior compared to those diagnosed earlier: they engaged less in sex at mass events, had fewer sexual partners and were less likely to belong to the sexual network's central group. Among HIV-PrEP users there were no notable changes in sexual behavior. Anti-orthopoxvirus seroprevalence did not notably increase before the start of national vaccination campaigns. CONCLUSION: The observed changes in group immunity and behavior in the population at greater risk of exposure to mpox seem unable to explain the waning of the mpox epidemic. A change in the profile of mpox patients might have contributed to the decline in cases.

Estimating Partnership Duration among MSM in Belgium-A Modeling Study.

Mathematical modeling is widely used for describing infection transmission and evaluating interventions. The lack of reliable social parameters in the literature has been mentioned by many modeling studies, leading to limitations in the validity and interpretation of the results. Using data from the European MSM Internet survey 2017, we developed a network model to describe sex acts among MSM in Belgium. The model simulates daily sex acts among steady, persistent casual and one-off partners in a population of 10,000 MSM, grouped as low- or high-activity by using three different definitions. Model calibration was used to estimate partnership duration and homophily rates to match the distribution of cumulative sex partners over 12 months. We estimated an average duration between 1065 and 1409 days for steady partnerships, 4-6 and 251-299 days for assortative high- and low-activity individuals and 8-13 days for disassortative persistent casual partnerships, respectively, varying across the three definitions. High-quality data on social network and behavioral parameters are scarce in the literature. Our study addresses this lack of information by providing a method to estimate crucial parameters for network specification.

Lack of Association between Antimicrobial Consumption and Antimicrobial Resistance in a HIV Preexposure Prophylaxis Population: A Cross-Sectional Study.

BACKGROUND: In antibiotic naïve populations, there is a strong association between the use of an antimicrobial and resistance to this antimicrobial. Less evidence is available as to whether this relationship is weakened in populations highly exposed to antimicrobials. Individuals taking HIV preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) have a high intake of antimicrobials. We previously found that there was no difference in the prevalence of pheno- and genotypic antimicrobial resistance between two groups of PrEP clients who had, and had not, taken antimicrobials in the prior 6 months. Both groups did, however, have a higher prevalence of resistance than a sample of the general population. METHODS: In the current study, we used zero-inflated negative binomial regression models to evaluate if there was an individual level association between the consumption of antimicrobials and 1. the minimum inhibitory susceptibilities of oral Neisseria subflava and 2. the abundance of antimicrobial resistance genes in the oropharynges of these individuals. RESULTS: We found no evidence of an association between the consumption of antimicrobials and the minimum inhibitory susceptibilities of oral Neisseria subflava or the abundance of antimicrobial resistance genes in these individuals. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that in high-antimicrobial-consumption populations, the association between antimicrobial consumption and resistance may be attenuated. This conclusion would not apply to lower-consumption populations.

Effect of screening for Neisseria gonorrhoeae and Chlamydia trachomatis on incidence of these infections in men who have sex with men and transgender women taking HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (the Gonoscreen study): results from a randomised, multicentre, controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Guidelines recommend screening for Neisseria gonorrhoeae and Chlamydia trachomatis at three anatomical sites (urethra, anus, and pharynx) every 3 months (3 × 3) in men who have sex with men (MSM) and transgender women taking HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). We present the first randomised controlled trial to compare the effect of screening versus non-screening for N gonorrhoeae and C trachomatis on the incidence of these infections in MSM and transgender women taking PrEP. METHODS: A multicentre, randomised, controlled trial of 3 × 3 screening for N gonorrhoeae and C trachomatis versus non-screening was done among MSM and transgender women taking PrEP in five HIV reference centers in Belgium. Participants attended the PrEP clinics quarterly for 12 months. N gonorrhoeae and C trachomatis was tested at each visit in both arms, but results were not provided to the non-screening arm, if asymptomatic. The primary outcome was incidence rate of N gonorrhoeae and C trachomatis infections in each arm, assessed in the per-protocol population. Non-inferiority of the non-screening arm was proven if the upper limit of the 95% CI of the incidence rate ratio (IRR) was lower than 1·25. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04269434, and is completed. FINDINGS: Between Sept 21, 2020, and June 4, 2021, 506 participants were randomly assigned to the 3 × 3 screening arm and 508 to the non-screening arm. The overall incidence rate of N gonorrhoeae and C trachomatis was 0·155 cases per 100 person-days (95% CI 0·128-0·186) in the 3 × 3 screening arm and 0·205 (95% CI 0·171-0·246) in the non-screening arm. The incidence rate was significantly higher in the non-screening arm (IRR 1·318, 95% CI 1·068-1·627). Participants in the non-screening arm had a higher incidence of C trachomatis infections and symptomatic C trachomatis infections. There were no significant differences in N gonorrhoeae infections. Participants in the non-screening arm consumed significantly fewer antimicrobial drugs. No serious adverse events were reported. INTERPRETATION: We failed to show that non-screening for N gonorrhoeae and C trachomatis is non-inferior to 3 × 3 screening in MSM and transgender women taking PrEP in Belgium. However, screening was associated with higher antibiotic consumption and had no effect on the incidence of N gonorrhoeae. Further research is needed to assess the benefits and harms of N gonorrhoeae and C trachomatis screening in this population. FUNDING: Belgian Health Care Knowledge Centre.

Gonococcal resistance to zoliflodacin could emerge via transformation from commensal Neisseria species. An in-vitro transformation study.

One of the most promising new treatments for gonorrhoea currently in phase 3 clinical trials is zoliflodacin. Studies have found very little resistance to zoliflodacin in currently circulating N. gonorrhoeae strains, and in-vitro experiments demonstrated that it is difficult to induce resistance. However, zoliflodacin resistance may emerge in commensal Neisseria spp., which could then be transferred to N. gonorrhoeae via transformation. In this study, we investigated this commensal-resistance-pathway hypothesis for zoliflodacin. To induce zoliflodacin resistance, ten wild-type susceptible isolates belonging to 5 Neisseria species were serially passaged for up to 48 h on gonococcal agar plates containing increasing zoliflodacin concentrations. Within 7 to 10 days, all strains except N. lactamica, exhibited MICs of ≥ 4 µg/mL, resulting in MIC increase ranging from 8- to 64-fold. The last passaged strains and their baseline were sequenced. We detected mutations previously reported to cause zoliflodacin resistance in GyrB (D429N and S467N), novel mutations in the quinolone resistance determining region (QRDR) (M464R and T472P) and mutations outside the QRDR at amino acid positions 28 and 29 associated with low level resistance (MIC 2 µg/mL). Genomic DNA from the laboratory evolved zoliflodacin-resistant strains was transformed into the respective baseline wild-type strain, resulting in MICs of ≥ 8 µg/mL in most cases. WGS of transformants with decreased zoliflodacin susceptibility revealed presence of the same zoliflodacin resistance determinants as observed in the donor strains. Two inter-species transformation experiments were conducted to investigate whether zoliflodacin resistance determinants of commensal Neisseria spp. could be acquired by N. gonorrhoeae. N. gonorrhoeae strain WHO P was exposed to (i) pooled genomic DNA from the two resistant N. mucosa strains and (ii) a gyrB amplicon of the resistant N. subflava strain 45/1_8. Transformants of both experiments exhibited an MIC of 2 µg/mL and whole genome analysis revealed uptake of the mutations detected in the donor strains. This is the first in-vitro study to report that zoliflodacin resistance can be induced in commensal Neisseria spp. and subsequently transformed into N. gonorrhoeae.

No Varicella Zoster Virus Infection among Mpox Cases in Antwerp, Belgium.

Several studies in tropical settings have reported that ∼20% of patients infected with Monkeypox virus (MPXV) also tested polymerase chain reaction (PCR) positive for Varicella zoster virus (VZV). Researchers have hypothesized that VZV infection predisposes to monkeypox (mpox), or vice versa, or that MPXV triggers the reactivation of VZV. We tested samples for VZV from a cohort of patients infected with clade IIb MPXV diagnosed between May 23 and October 14, 2022 in Antwerp, Belgium. Leftover DNA extracts of skin lesion samples from 108 mpox patients were tested with in-house PCR for VZV. No VZV infections were found. The absence of concurrent VZV-MPXV infections in our cohort indicates that VZV did not cocirculate in the population at risk for MPXV during the Belgian 2022 outbreak, but also that MPXV does not commonly trigger reactivation of latent VZV in adult men.

Emergence of mpox in the post-smallpox era-a narrative review on mpox epidemiology.

BACKGROUND: The 2022 mpox outbreak drew global attention to this neglected pathogen. While most of the world was taken by surprise, some countries have seen this pathogen emerge and become endemic several decades prior to this epidemic. OBJECTIVES: This narrative review provides an overview of mpox epidemiology since its discovery through the 2022 global outbreak. SOURCES: We searched PubMed for relevant literature about mpox epidemiology and transmission through 28 February 2023. CONTENT: The emergence of human mpox is intertwined with the eradication of smallpox and the cessation of the global smallpox vaccination campaign. The first human clade I and II monkeypox virus (MPXV) infections were reported as zoonoses in Central and West Africa, respectively, around 1970 with sporadic infections reported throughout the rest of the decade. Over the next five decades, Clade I MPXV was more common and caused outbreaks of increasing size and frequency, mainly in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Clade II MPXV was rarely observed, until its re-emergence and ongoing transmission in Nigeria, since 2017. Both clades showed a shift from zoonotic to human-to-human transmission, with potential transmission through sexual contact being observed in Nigeria. In 2022, clade II MPXV caused a large human outbreak which to date has caused over 86,000 cases in 110 countries, with strong evidence of transmission during sexual contact. By February 2023, the global epidemic has waned in most countries, but endemic regions continue to suffer from mpox. IMPLICATIONS: The changing epidemiology of mpox demonstrates how neglected zoonosis turned into a global health threat within a few decades. Thus, mpox pathophysiology and transmission dynamics need to be further investigated, and preventive and therapeutic interventions need to be evaluated. Outbreak response systems need to be strengthened and sustained in endemic regions to reduce the global threat of mpox.

Leveraging T-cell receptor - epitope recognition models to disentangle unique and cross-reactive T-cell response to SARS-CoV-2 during COVID-19 progression/resolution.

Despite the general agreement on the significance of T cells during SARS-CoV-2 infection, the clinical impact of specific and cross-reactive T-cell responses remains uncertain. Understanding this aspect could provide insights for adjusting vaccines and maintaining robust long-term protection against continuously emerging variants. To characterize CD8+ T-cell response to SARS-CoV-2 epitopes unique to the virus (SC2-unique) or shared with other coronaviruses (CoV-common), we trained a large number of T-cell receptor (TCR) - epitope recognition models for MHC-I-presented SARS-CoV-2 epitopes from publicly available data. These models were then applied to longitudinal CD8+ TCR repertoires from critical and non-critical COVID-19 patients. In spite of comparable initial CoV-common TCR repertoire depth and CD8+ T-cell depletion, the temporal dynamics of SC2-unique TCRs differed depending on the disease severity. Specifically, while non-critical patients demonstrated a large and diverse SC2-unique TCR repertoire by the second week of the disease, critical patients did not. Furthermore, only non-critical patients exhibited redundancy in the CD8+ T-cell response to both groups of epitopes, SC2-unique and CoV-common. These findings indicate a valuable contribution of the SC2-unique CD8+ TCR repertoires. Therefore, a combination of specific and cross-reactive CD8+ T-cell responses may offer a stronger clinical advantage. Besides tracking the specific and cross-reactive SARS-CoV-2 CD8+ T cells in any TCR repertoire, our analytical framework can be expanded to more epitopes and assist in the assessment and monitoring of CD8+ T-cell response to other infections.

Rethinking Screening Intensity in Terms of Reducing Prevalence or Increasing Selection Pressure for the Emergence of Resistant Gonorrhea: A Modeling Study of Men Who Have Sex With Men in Belgium.

Background: Neisseria gonorrhoeae (NG) has developed antimicrobial resistance (AMR) to multiple classes of antibiotics. While treatment of symptomatic NG in groups, such as men who have sex with men (MSM), is crucial, screening programs targeting asymptomatic NG cases may contribute to excessive antibiotic exposure of the population and thus to the emergence of gonococcal AMR. Our primary aim was to assess if intense screening could promote AMR in NG. Methods: We built a network-based model of NG transmission dynamics among MSM in Belgium to estimate the prevalence of NG in the population and the risk of AMR. The model simulates daily transmission of NG among 3 anatomical sites in a population of 10 000 MSM, grouped as low risk or high risk, over 10 years. The effect of group-wise variation in treatment efficacy levels and screening intensities on NG prevalence and cumulative risk of AMR emergence was evaluated. Results: Increasing screening intensity in the low-risk MSM had little effect on NG prevalence. An inverse correlation between screening intensity in the high-risk group and both NG prevalence and the risk for azithromycin resistance was observed, irrespective of the screening intensity in the low-risk group. High-risk MSM were at higher risk for azithromycin-resistant NG in all screening intensity and treatment efficacy scenarios, compared to low-risk MSM. Conclusions: Our results suggest that intensive screening in the low-risk population has little impact on prevalence but may increase the probability of AMR emerging. In contrast, intensive screening in the high-risk population reduces both the prevalence of NG and macrolide resistance.

Presymptomatic viral shedding in high-risk mpox contacts: A prospective cohort study.

The risk of infection after exposure to clade IIb mpox virus (MPXV) is unknown, and potential presymptomatic shedding of MPXV remains to be demonstrated. High-risk contacts of mpox patients were followed-up in a prospective longitudinal cohort study. Individuals reporting sexual contact, >15 min skin-to-skin contact, or living in the same household with an mpox patient were recruited in a sexual health clinic in Antwerp, Belgium. Participants kept a symptom diary, performed daily self-sampling (anorectal, genital, and saliva), and presented for weekly clinic visits for physical examination and sampling (blood and oropharyngeal). Samples were tested for MPXV by PCR. Between June 24 and July 31, 2022, 25 contacts were included, of which 12/18 (66.0%) sexual and 1/7 (14.0%) nonsexual contacts showed evidence of infection by MPXV-PCR. Six cases had typical mpox symptoms. Viral DNA was detected as early as 4 days before symptom onset in 5 of them. In 3 of these cases, replication-competent virus was demonstrated in the presymptomatic phase. These findings confirm the existence of presymptomatic shedding of replication-competent MPXV and emphasize the high risk of transmission during sexual contact. Sexual contacts of mpox cases should abstain from sex during the incubation period, irrespective of symptoms.

Characteristics of confirmed mpox cases among clinical suspects: A prospective single-centre study in Belgium during the 2022 outbreak.

Background: The presentation of mpox clade IIb during the 2022 outbreak overlaps with a range of other diseases. Understanding the factors associated with mpox is important for clinical decision making. Methods: We described the characteristics of mpox patients who sought care at Belgian sexual health clinic. Furthermore we compared their characteristics to those of patients with a clinical suspicion of mpox but who tested negative on polymerase chain reaction. Results: Between May 23 and September 20, 2022, 155 patients were diagnosed with mpox, and 51 patients with suspected symptoms tested negative. All mpox patients self-identified as men and 148/155 (95.5%) as gay or bisexual MSM. Systemic symptoms were present in 116/155 (74.8%) patients. All but 10 patients (145/155, 93.5%) presented with skin lesions. Other manifestations were lymphadenopathy (72/155, 46.5%), proctitis (50/155, 32.3%), urethritis (12/155, 7.7%), tonsillitis (2/155, 1.3%). Complications involved bacterial skin infection (13/155, 8.4%) and penile oedema with or without paraphimosis (4/155, 2.6%). In multivariable logistic regression models, the presence of lymphadenopathy (OR 3.79 95% CI 1.44-11.49), skin lesions (OR 4.35 95% CI 1.15-17.57) and proctitis (OR 9.41 95% CI 2.72-47.07) were associated with the diagnosis of mpox. There were no associations with age, HIV status, childhood smallpox vaccination, number of sexual partners and international travel. Conclusions: The presence of proctitis, lymphadenopathies and skin lesions should increase clinical suspicion of mpox in patients with compatible symptoms.

Persistent morbidity in Clade IIb mpox patients: interim results of a long-term follow-up study, Belgium, June to November 2022.

While mpox was well characterised during the 2022 global Clade IIb outbreak, little is known about persistent morbidity. We present interim results of a prospective cohort study of 95 mpox patients assessed 3-20 weeks post-symptom onset. Two-thirds of participants had residual morbidity, including 25 with persistent anorectal and 18 with genital symptoms. Loss of physical fitness, new-onset/worsened fatigue and mental health problems were reported in 36, 19 and 11 patients, respectively. These findings require attention by healthcare providers.

The oropharynx of men using HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis is enriched with antibiotic resistance genes: A cross-sectional observational metagenomic study.

BACKGROUND: Phenotypic studies have found high levels of antimicrobial resistance to cephalosporins, macrolides and fluoroquinolones in commensal Neisseria species in the oropharynx of men who have sex with men (MSM) using HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). These species include Neisseria subflava and Neisseria mucosa. This may represent a risk to pathogens like Neisseria gonorrhoeae which tend to take up antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) from other bacteria. We aimed to explore to what extent the oropharyngeal resistome of MSM using PrEP differed from the general population. METHODS: We collected oropharyngeal swabs from 32 individuals of the general population and from 64 MSM using PrEP. Thirty-two MSM had consumed antibiotics in the previous six months, whereas none of the other participants had. Samples underwent shotgun metagenomic sequencing. Sequencing reads were mapped against MEGARes 2.0 to estimate ARG abundance. ARG abundance was compared between groups by zero-inflated negative binomial regression. FINDINGS: ARG abundance was significantly lower in the general population than in MSM (ratio 0.41, 95% CI 0.26-0.65). More specifically, this was the case for fluoroquinolones (0.33, 95% CI 0.15-0.69), macrolides (0.37, 95% CI 0.25-0.56), tetracyclines (0.41, 95% CI 0.25-0.69), and multidrug efflux pumps (0.11, 95% CI 0.03-0.33), but not for beta-lactams (1.38, 95% CI 0.73-2.61). There were no significant differences in ARG abundance between MSM who had used antibiotics and those that had not. INTERPRETATION: The resistome of MSM using PrEP is enriched with ARGs, independent of recent antibiotic use. Stewardship campaigns should aim to reduce antibiotic consumption in populations at high risk for STIs.

The Roles of Unrecognized Mpox Cases, Contact Isolation and Vaccination in Determining Epidemic Size in Belgium: A Modeling Study.

We used a network model to simulate a mpox epidemic among men who have sex with men. Our findings suggest that unrecognized infections have an important impact on the epidemic, and that vaccination of individuals at highest risk of infection reduces epidemic size more than post-exposure vaccination of sexual partners.