High viral suppression and detection of dolutegravir-resistance associated mutations in treatment-experienced Tanzanian adults living with HIV-1 in Dar es Salaam.

To curb HIV infection rate in Tanzania, antiretroviral therapy (ART) has been scaled up since 2006, and in 2019, the country shifted to regimen including dolutegravir as a default first line. We assessed the success of ART and the contribution of HIV drug resistance (HIVDR) to unsuppressed viral loads. Between February and May 2023 a cross-sectional survey with random sampling was conducted in the six clinics in an urban cohort in Dar es Salaam. Patients with unsuppresed viral loads (local criteria viral load (VL) ≥ 1000 copies/mL) were tested for HIVDR mutations using the WHO adapted protocol for plasma samples. Mutations were interpreted using the Stanford HIVDR database. In total 600 individuals participated in this survey, the majority were female (76.83%), mean age ([Formula: see text] standard deviation) was 44.0 ([Formula: see text] 11.6) years. The median duration on ART (interquartile range) was 6.5 (3.9-10.2) years. Approximately 99% were receiving tenofovir + lamivudine + dolutegravir as a fixed dose combination. VL testing was successful in 99.67% (598/600) of survey patients and only 33 had VL ≥ 1000 copies/mL, resulting in a viral suppression level of 94.48% (565/598, 95% CI 92.34-96.17%). For 23 samples, protease and reverse transcriptase (RT) genotyping were successful, with 13 sequences containing RT inhibitor surveillance drug resistance mutations (SDRMs) (56.5%). No SDRM against protease inhibitors were detected. Thirty samples were successfully genotyped for integrase with 3 sequences (10.08%) containing integrase strand transfer inhibitor (INSTI) SDRMs. In samples successfully genotyped in the three genetic regions, 68.18% (16/22) had a genotypic susceptibility score (GSS) ≥ 2.5 for the concurrent regimen, implying factors beyond drug resistance caused the unsuppressed viral load. For five patients, GSS indicated that HIVDR may have caused the unsuppressed viral load. All three patients with INSTI resistance mutations were highly resistant to dolutegravir and accumulated nucleoside and non-nucleoside RT inhibitor HIVDR mutations. Although in this cohort the last 95 UNAIDS target was almost achieved, HIVDR mutations, including INSTIs resistance mutations were detected in HIV-positive individuals taking ART for at least one year. We recommend the design and implementation of high-impact interventions to prevent the increase of HIVDR, failure of dolutegravir and address the non-resistance factors in the study area.

Systemic cytokines and GlycA discriminate disease status and predict corticosteroid response in HTLV-1-associated neuroinflammation.

BACKGROUND: HTLV-1-Associated Myelopathy/Tropical Spastic Paraparesis (HAM/TSP) is an incapacitating neuroinflammatory disorder for which no disease-modifying therapy is available, but corticosteroids provide some clinical benefit. Although HAM/TSP pathogenesis is not fully elucidated, older age, female sex and higher proviral load are established risk factors. We investigated systemic cytokines and a novel chronic inflammatory marker, GlycA, as possible biomarkers of immunopathogenesis and therapeutic response in HAM/TSP, and examined their interaction with established risk factors. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We recruited 110 People living with HTLV-1 (PLHTLV-1, 67 asymptomatic individuals and 43 HAM/TSP patients) with a total of 946 person-years of clinical follow-up. Plasma cytokine levels (IL-2, IL-4, IL-6, IL-10, IL-17A, IFN-γ, TNF) and GlycA were quantified by Cytometric Bead Array and 1NMR, respectively. Cytokine signaling and prednisolone response were validated in an independent cohort by nCounter digital transcriptomics. We used multivariable regression, machine learning algorithms and Bayesian network learning for biomarker identification. RESULTS: We found that systemic IL-6 was positively correlated with both age (r = 0.50, p < 0.001) and GlycA (r = 0.45, p = 0.00049) in asymptomatics, revealing an 'inflammaging" signature which was absent in HAM/TSP. GlycA levels were higher in women (p = 0.0069), but cytokine levels did not differ between the sexes. IFN-γ (p = 0.007) and IL-17A (p = 0.0001) levels were increased in untreated HAM/TSP Multivariable logistic regression identified IL-17A and proviral load as independent determinants of clinical status, resulting in modest accuracy of predicting HAM/TSP status (64.1%), while a machine learning-derived decision tree classified HAM/TSP patients with 90.7% accuracy. Pre-treatment GlycA and TNF levels significantly predicted clinical worsening (measured by Osame Motor Disability Scale), independent of proviral load. In addition, a poor prednisolone response was significantly correlated with higher post-treatment IFN-γ levels. Likewise, a transcriptomic IFN signaling score, significantly correlated with previously proposed HAM/TSP biomarkers (CASP5/CXCL10/FCGR1A/STAT1), was efficiently blunted by in vitro prednisolone treatment of PBMC from PLHTLV-1 and incident HAM/TSP. CONCLUSIONS: An age-related increase in systemic IL-6/GlycA levels reveals inflammaging in PLHTLV-1, in the absence of neurological disease. IFN-γ and IL-17A are biomarkers of untreated HAM/TSP, while pre-treatment GlycA and TNF predict therapeutic response to prednisolone pulse therapy, paving the way for a precision medicine approach in HAM/TSP.

Road to Metastasis: The TWEAK Pathway as a Discriminant between Metastasizing and Non-Metastasizing Thick Melanomas.

Cutaneous melanoma (CM) is the most aggressive form of skin cancer, and its worldwide incidence is rapidly increasing. Early stages can be successfully treated by surgery, but once metastasis has occurred, the prognosis is poor. However, some 5-10% of thick (≥2 mm) melanomas do not follow this scenario and run an unpredictable course. Little is known about the factors that contribute to metastasis in some patient with thick melanomas and the lack thereof in thick melanoma patients who never develop metastatic disease. We were therefore interested to study differential gene expression and pathway analysis and compare non-metastatic and metastatic thick melanomas. We found that the TNF-like weak inducer of apoptosis (TWEAK) pathway was upregulated in thick non-metastasizing melanomas. MAP3K14 (NIK1), BIRC2 (cIAP1), RIPK1, CASP7, CASP8, and TNF play an important role in inhibiting proliferation and invasion of tumor cells via the activation of the non-canonical NF-κB signaling pathway. In particular, this pathway sensitizes melanoma cells to TNF-alpha and activates the apoptosis module of the TWEAK pathway in thick non-metastasizing melanomas. Hence, our study suggests a potential role of the TWEAK pathway in inhibiting thick melanoma from metastasis. Exploitation of these genes and the pathway they control may open future therapeutic avenues.

Behavioral changes before lockdown and decreased retail and recreation mobility during lockdown contributed most to controlling COVID-19 in Western countries.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has prompted a lockdown in many countries to control the exponential spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, hereby reducing the time-varying basic reproduction number (Rt) to below one. Governments are looking for evidence to balance the demand of their citizens to ease some of the restriction, against the fear of a new peak in infections. In this study, we wanted to quantify the relative contribution of mobility restrictions, and that of behavioral changes that occurred already before the lockdowns, on the reduction of transmission during lockdowns in Western countries in early 2020. METHODS: Incidence data of cases and deaths from the first wave of infections for 35 Western countries (32 European, plus Israel, USA and Canada) were analyzed using epidemiological compartment models in a Bayesian framework. Mobility data was used to estimate the timing of changes associated with a lockdown, and was correlated with estimated reductions of Rt. RESULTS: Across all countries, the initial median estimate for Rt was 3.6 (95% IQR 2.4-5.2), and it was reduced to 0.78 (95% IQR 0.58-1.01) during lockdown. 48% (18-65%) of the reduction occurred already in the week before lockdown, with lockdown itself causing the remaining drop in transmission. A lower Rt during lockdown was independently associated with an increased time spent at home (0.21 per 10% more time, p < 0.007), and decreased mobility related to retail and recreation (0.07 per 10% less mobility, p < 0.008). CONCLUSIONS: In a Western population unaware of the risk, SARS-CoV-2 can be highly contagious with a reproduction number R0 > 5. Our results are consistent with evidence that recreational activities (including restaurant and bar visits) enable super-spreading events. Exiting from lockdown therefore requires continued physical distancing and tight control on this kind of activities.

Phenotypical and Functional Characterization of Neutrophils in Two Pyrin-Associated Auto-inflammatory Diseases.

PURPOSE: Familial Mediterranean Fever (FMF) and Pyrin-Associated Autoinflammation with Neutrophilic Dermatosis (PAAND) are clinically distinct autoinflammatory disorders caused by mutations in the pyrin-encoding gene MEFV. We investigated the transcriptional, phenotypical, and functional characteristics of patient neutrophils to explore their potential role in FMF and PAAND pathophysiology. METHODS: RNA sequencing was performed to discover transcriptional aberrancies. The phenotypical features, degranulation properties, and phagocytic capacity of neutrophils were assessed by flow cytometry. Production of reactive oxygen species (ROS), myeloperoxidase (MPO) release, and chemotactic responses were investigated via chemiluminescence, ELISA, and Boyden chamber assays, respectively. RESULTS: Neutrophils from PAAND and FMF patients showed a partially overlapping, activated gene expression profile with increased expression of S100A8, S100A9, S100A12, IL-4R, CD48, F5, MMP9, and NFKB. Increased MMP9 and S100A8/A9 expression levels were accompanied by high plasma concentrations of the encoded proteins. Phenotypical analysis revealed that neutrophils from FMF patients exhibited an immature character with downregulation of chemoattractant receptors CXCR2, C5aR, and BLTR1 and increased expression of Toll-like receptor 4 (TLR4) and TLR9. PAAND neutrophils displayed an increased random, but reduced CXCL8-induced migration. A tendency for enhanced random migration was observed for FMF neutrophils. PAAND neutrophils showed a moderately but significantly enhanced phagocytic activity as opposed to neutrophils from FMF patients. Neutrophils from both patient groups showed increased MPO release and ROS production. CONCLUSIONS: Neutrophils from patients with FMF and PAAND, carrying different mutations in the MEFV gene, share a pro-inflammatory phenotype yet demonstrate diverse features, underscoring the distinction between both diseases.

Predictors of non adherence to antiretroviral therapy at an urban HIV care and treatment center in Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Measurement of adherence to antiretroviral therapy (ART) can serve as a proxy for virologic failure in resource-limited settings. The aim of this study was to determine the factors underlying nonadherence measured by three methods. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This is a prospective longitudinal cohort of 220 patients on ART at Amana Hospital in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. We measured adherence using a structured questionnaire combining a visual analog scale (VAS) and Swiss HIV Cohort Study Adherence Questionnaire (SHCS-AQ), pharmacy refill, and appointment keeping during four periods over 1 year. Overall adherence was calculated as the mean adherence for all time points over the 1 year of follow-up. At each time point, adherence was defined as achieving a validated cutoff for adherence previously defined for each method. RESULTS: The proportion of overall adherence was 86.4% by VAS, 69% by SHCS-AQ, 79.8% by appointment keeping, and 51.8% by pharmacy refill. Forgetfulness was the major reported reason for patients to skip their medications. In multivariate analysis, significant predictors to good adherence were older age, less alcohol consumption, more advanced World Health Organization clinical staging, and having a lower body mass index with odds ratio (CI): 3.11 (1.55-6.93), 0.24 (0.09-0.62), 1.78 (1.14-2.84), and 0.93 (0.88-0.98), respectively. CONCLUSION: We found relatively good adherence to ART in this setting. Barriers to adherence include young age and perception of well-being.

Single- and multiple-dose pharmacokinetics and safety of pimodivir, a novel, non-nucleoside polymerase basic protein 2 subunit inhibitor of the influenza A virus polymerase complex, and interaction with oseltamivir: a Phase 1 open-label study in healthy volunteers.

AIMS: The aim of this study was to evaluate the drug-drug interaction between pimodivir, a novel, non-nucleoside polymerase basic protein 2 (PB2) subunit inhibitor of the influenza A virus polymerase complex, and oseltamivir, to assess the feasibility of this combination therapy. Furthermore, single- and multiple-dose pharmacokinetics and safety of pimodivir in healthy volunteers were assessed. METHODS: In Part 1 of this open-label Phase 1 study, healthy volunteers (n = 18) were randomized to one of six cross-over treatment sequences, each comprising administration of oseltamivir 75 mg or pimodivir 600 mg or combination thereof twice daily on Days 1-4, followed by a single morning dose on Day 5. Between each treatment session, there was a minimum 5-day washout period. In Part 2, healthy volunteers (n = 16) randomly received pimodivir 600 mg or placebo (3:1) twice daily on Days 1-9, followed by a single morning dose on Day 10. Pharmacokinetics of pimodivir, oseltamivir and oseltamivir carboxylate, and safety were assessed. RESULTS: In Part 1, co-administration of pimodivir with oseltamivir increased the Cmax of pimodivir by 31% (90% CI: 0.92-1.85) with no change in Cmin or AUC12h . Pimodivir had no effect on oseltamivir or oseltamivir carboxylate pharmacokinetics. In Part 2, after single- and multiple-dose administration of pimodivir, there was a 1.2- and 1.8-fold increase in Cmax and AUC12h , respectively, between Day 1 and Day 10. The most frequently reported treatment-emergent adverse event was diarrhoea (n = 7 each in Part 1 and 2). CONCLUSION: Combination treatment with pimodivir and oseltamivir in healthy volunteers showed no clinically relevant drug-drug interactions. No safety concerns were identified with pimodivir 600 mg twice daily alone or in combination with oseltamivir 75 mg twice daily.

Comprehensive Antiretroviral Restriction Factor Profiling Reveals the Evolutionary Imprint of the ex Vivo and in Vivo IFN-ß Response in HTLV-1-Associated Neuroinflammation.

HTLV-1-Associated Myelopathy (HAM/TSP) is a progressive neuroinflammatory disorder for which no disease-modifying treatment exists. Modest clinical benefit from type I interferons (IFN-α/ß) in HAM/TSP contrasts with its recently identified IFN-inducible gene signature. In addition, IFN-α treatment in vivo decreases proviral load and immune activation in HAM/TSP, whereas IFN-ß therapy decreases tax mRNA and lymphoproliferation. We hypothesize this "IFN paradox" in HAM/TSP might be explained by both cell type- and gene-specific effects of type I IFN in HTLV-1-associated pathogenesis. Therefore, we analyzed ex vivo transcriptomes of CD4+ T cells, PBMCs and whole blood in healthy controls, HTLV-1-infected individuals, and HAM/TSP patients. First, we used a targeted approach, simultaneously quantifying HTLV-1 mRNA (HBZ, Tax), proviral load and 42 host genes with known antiretroviral (anti-HIV) activity in purified CD4+ T cells. This revealed two major clusters ("antiviral/protective" vs. "proviral/deleterious"), as evidenced by significant negative (TRIM5/TRIM22/BST2) vs. positive correlation (ISG15/PAF1/CDKN1A) with HTLV-1 viral markers and clinical status. Surprisingly, we found a significant inversion of antiretroviral activity of host restriction factors, as evidenced by opposite correlation to in vivo HIV-1 vs. HTLV-1 RNA levels. The anti-HTLV-1 effect of antiviral cluster genes was significantly correlated to their adaptive chimp/human evolution score, for both Tax mRNA and PVL. Six genes of the proposed antiviral cluster underwent lentivirus-driven purifying selection during primate evolution (TRIM5/TRIM22/BST2/APOBEC3F-G-H), underscoring the cross-retroviral evolutionary imprint. Secondly, we examined the genome-wide type I IFN response in HAM/TSP patients, following short-term ex vivo culture of PBMCs with either IFN-α or IFN-ß. Microarray analysis evidenced 12 antiretroviral genes (including TRIM5α/TRIM22/BST2) were significantly up-regulated by IFN-ß, but not IFN-α, in HAM/TSP. This was paralleled by a significant decrease in lymphoproliferation by IFN-ß, but not IFN-α treatment. Finally, using published ex vivo whole blood transcriptomic data of independent cohorts, we validated the significant positive correlation between TRIM5, TRIM22, and BST2 in HTLV-1-infected individuals and HAM/TSP patients, which was independent of the HAM/TSP disease signature. In conclusion, our results provide ex vivo mechanistic evidence for the observed immunovirological effect of in vivo IFN-ß treatment in HAM/TSP, reconcile an apparent IFN paradox in HTLV-1 research and identify biomarkers/targets for a precision medicine approach.

A Fashi Lymphoproliferative Phenotype Reveals Non-Apoptotic Fas Signaling in HTLV-1-Associated Neuroinflammation.

Human T-cell lymphotropic virus (HTLV)-1 was the first human retrovirus to be associated to cancer, namely adult T-cell leukemia (ATL), but its pathogenesis remains enigmatic, since only a minority of infected individuals develops either ATL or the neuroinflammatory disorder HTLV-1-associated myelopathy/tropical spastic paraparesis (HAM/TSP). A functional FAS -670 polymorphism in an interferon (IFN)-regulated STAT1-binding site has been associated to both ATL and HAM/TSP susceptibility. Fashi T stem cell memory (Tscm) cells have been identified as the hierarchical apex of ATL, but have not been investigated in HAM/TSP. In addition, both FAS and STAT1 have been identified in an IFN-inducible HAM/TSP gene signature, but its pathobiological significance remains unclear. We comprehensively explored Fas expression (protein/mRNA) and function in lymphocyte activation, apoptosis, proliferation, and transcriptome, in PBMC from a total of 47 HAM/TSP patients, 40 asymptomatic HTLV-1-infected individuals (AC), and 58 HTLV-1 -uninfected healthy controls. Fas surface expression followed a two-step increase from HC to AC and from AC to HAM/TSP. In HAM/TSP, Fas levels correlated positively to lymphocyte activation markers, but negatively to age of onset, linking Fashi cells to earlier, more aggressive disease. Surprisingly, increased lymphocyte Fas expression in HAM/TSP was linked to decreased apoptosis and increased lymphoproliferation upon in vitro culture, but not to proviral load. This Fashi phenotype is HAM/TSP-specific, since both ex vivo and in vitro Fas expression was increased as compared to multiple sclerosis (MS), another neuroinflammatory disorder. To elucidate the molecular mechanism underlying non-apoptotic Fas signaling in HAM/TSP, we combined transcriptome analysis with functional assays, i.e., blocking vs. triggering Fas receptor in vitro with antagonist and agonist-, anti-Fas mAb, respectively. Treatment with agonist anti-Fas mAb restored apoptosis, indicating biased, but not defective Fas signaling in HAM/TSP. In silico analysis revealed biased Fas signaling toward proliferation and inflammation, driven by RelA/NF-κB. Correlation of Fas transcript levels with proliferation (but not apoptosis) was confirmed in HAM/TSP ex vivo transcriptomes. In conclusion, we demonstrated a two-step increase in Fas expression, revealing a unique Fashi lymphocyte phenotype in HAM/TSP, distinguishable from MS. Non-apoptotic Fas signaling might fuel HAM/TSP pathogenesis, through increased lymphoproliferation, inflammation, and early age of onset.

The global spread of HIV-1 subtype B epidemic.

Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) was discovered in the early 1980s when the virus had already established a pandemic. For at least three decades the epidemic in the Western World has been dominated by subtype B infections, as part of a sub-epidemic that traveled from Africa through Haiti to United States. However, the pattern of the subsequent spread still remains poorly understood. Here we analyze a large dataset of globally representative HIV-1 subtype B strains to map their spread around the world over the last 50years and describe significant spread patterns. We show that subtype B travelled from North America to Western Europe in different occasions, while Central/Eastern Europe remained isolated for the most part of the early epidemic. Looking with more detail in European countries we see that the United Kingdom, France and Switzerland exchanged viral isolates with non-European countries than with European ones. The observed pattern is likely to mirror geopolitical landmarks in the post-World War II era, namely the rise and the fall of the Iron Curtain and the European colonialism. In conclusion, HIV-1 spread through specific migration routes which are consistent with geopolitical factors that affected human activities during the last 50years, such as migration, tourism and trade. Our findings support the argument that epidemic control policies should be global and incorporate political and socioeconomic factors.

CRF19_cpx is an Evolutionary fit HIV-1 Variant Strongly Associated With Rapid Progression to AIDS in Cuba.

BACKGROUND: Clinicians reported an increasing trend of rapid progression (RP) (AIDS within 3 years of infection) in Cuba. METHODS: Recently infected patients were prospectively sampled, 52 RP at AIDS diagnosis (AIDS-RP) and 21 without AIDS in the same time frame (non-AIDS). 22 patients were sampled at AIDS diagnosis (chronic-AIDS) retrospectively assessed as > 3 years infected. Clinical, demographic, virological, epidemiological and immunological data were collected. Pol and env sequences were used for subtyping, transmission cluster analysis, and prediction of resistance, co-receptor use and evolutionary fitness. Host, immunological and viral predictors of RP were explored through data mining. FINDINGS: Subtyping revealed 26 subtype B strains, 6 C, 6 CRF18_cpx, 9 CRF19_cpx, 29 BG-recombinants and other subtypes/URFs. All patients infected with CRF19 belonged to the AIDS-RP group. Data mining identified CRF19, oral candidiasis and RANTES levels as the strongest predictors of AIDS-RP. CRF19 was more frequently predicted to use the CXCR4 co-receptor, had higher fitness scores in the protease region, and patients had higher viral load at diagnosis. INTERPRETATION: CRF19 is a recombinant of subtype D (C-part of Gag, PR, RT and nef), subtype A (N-part of Gag, Integrase, Env) and subtype G (Vif, Vpr, Vpu and C-part of Env). Since subtypes D and A have been associated with respectively faster and slower disease progression, our findings might indicate a fit PR driving high viral load, which in combination with co-infections may boost RANTES levels and thus CXCR4 use, potentially explaining the fast progression. We propose that CRF19 is evolutionary very fit and causing rapid progression to AIDS in many newly infected patients in Cuba.

Global Dispersal Pattern of HIV Type 1 Subtype CRF01_AE: A Genetic Trace of Human Mobility Related to Heterosexual Sexual Activities Centralized in Southeast Asia.

BACKGROUND: Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) subtype CRF01_AE originated in Africa and then passed to Thailand, where it established a major epidemic. Despite the global presence of CRF01_AE, little is known about its subsequent dispersal pattern. METHODS: We assembled a global data set of 2736 CRF01_AE sequences by pooling sequences from public databases and patient-cohort studies. We estimated viral dispersal patterns, using statistical phylogeographic analysis run over bootstrap trees estimated by the maximum likelihood method. RESULTS: We show that Thailand has been the source of viral dispersal to most areas worldwide, including 17 of 20 sampled countries in Europe. Japan, Singapore, Vietnam, and other Asian countries have played a secondary role in the viral dissemination. In contrast, China and Taiwan have mainly imported strains from neighboring Asian countries, North America, and Africa without any significant viral exportation. DISCUSSION: The central role of Thailand in the global spread of CRF01_AE can be probably explained by the popularity of Thailand as a vacation destination characterized by sex tourism and by Thai emigration to the Western world. Our study highlights the unique case of CRF01_AE, the only globally distributed non-B clade whose global dispersal did not originate in Africa.

Pharmacy refill adherence outperforms self-reported methods in predicting HIV therapy outcome in resource-limited settings.

BACKGROUND: Optimal adherence to antiretroviral therapy is critical to prevent HIV drug resistance (HIVDR) epidemic. The objective of the study was to investigate the best performing adherence assessment method for predicting virological failure in resource-limited settings (RLS). METHOD: This study was a single-centre prospective cohort, enrolling 220 HIV-infected adult patients attending an HIV/AIDS Care and Treatment Centre in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, in 2010. Pharmacy refill, self-report (via visual analog scale [VAS] and the Swiss HIV Cohort study-adherence questionnaire), pill count, and appointment keeping adherence measurements were taken. Univariate logistic regression (LR) was done to explore a cut-off that gives a better trade-off between sensitivity and specificity, and a higher area under the curve (AUC) based on receiver operating characteristic curve in predicting virological failure. Additionally, the adherence models were evaluated by fitting multivariate LR with stepwise functions, decision trees, and random forests models, assessing 10-fold multiple cross validation (MCV). Patient factors associated with virological failure were determined using LR. RESULTS: Viral load measurements at baseline and one year after recruitment were available for 162 patients, of whom 55 (34%) had detectable viral load and 17 (10.5%) had immunological failure at one year after recruitment. The optimal cut-off points significantly predictive of virological failure were 95%, 80%, 95% and 90% for VAS, appointment keeping, pharmacy refill, and pill count adherence respectively. The AUC for these methods ranged from 0.52 to 0.61, with pharmacy refill giving the best performance at AUC 0.61. Multivariate logistic regression with boost stepwise MCV had higher AUC (0.64) compared to all univariate adherence models, except pharmacy refill adherence univariate model, which was comparable to the multivariate model (AUC = 0.64). Decision trees and random forests models were inferior to boost stepwise model. Pharmacy refill adherence (<95%) emerged as the best method for predicting virological failure. Other significant predictors in multivariate LR were having a baseline CD4 T lymphocytes count < 200 cells/µl, being unable to recall the diagnosis date, and a higher weight. CONCLUSION: Pharmacy refill has the potential to predict virological failure and to identify patients to be considered for viral load monitoring and HIVDR testing in RLS.

Increase in transmitted resistance to non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors among newly diagnosed HIV-1 infections in Europe.

BACKGROUND: One out of ten newly diagnosed patients in Europe was infected with a virus carrying a drug resistant mutation. We analysed the patterns over time for transmitted drug resistance mutations (TDRM) using data from the European Spread program. METHODS: Clinical, epidemiological and virological data from 4317 patients newly diagnosed with HIV-1 infection between 2002 and 2007 were analysed. Patients were enrolled using a pre-defined sampling strategy. RESULTS: The overall prevalence of TDRM in this period was 8.9% (95% CI: 8.1-9.8). Interestingly, significant changes over time in TDRM caused by the different drug classes were found. Whereas nucleoside resistance mutations remained constant at 5%, a significant decline in protease inhibitors resistance mutations was observed, from 3.9% in 2002 to 1.6% in 2007 (p = 0.001). In contrast, resistance to non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs) doubled from 2.0% in 2002 to 4.1% in 2007 (p = 0.004) with 58% of viral strains carrying a K103N mutation. Phylogenetic analysis showed that these temporal changes could not be explained by large clusters of TDRM. CONCLUSION: During the years 2002 to 2007 transmitted resistance to NNRTI has doubled to 4% in Europe. The frequent use of NNRTI in first-line regimens and the clinical impact of NNRTI mutations warrants continued monitoring.

Clinical and virological response to antiretroviral drugs among HIV patients on first-line treatment in Dar-es-Salaam, Tanzania.

INTRODUCTION: In Tanzania, the follow-up on antiretroviral therapy (ART) response is based on clinical outcomes. We investigated virological response and ARV resistance mutations in relation to clinical response in ARV-treated patients. METHODOLOGY: A cross-sectional study of a cohort of 150 patients taking first-line ART in Dar-es-Salaam was conducted. Data were collected using standardized questionnaires and patients' blood samples. HIV viral load testing and genotyping was performed on all viremic samples. Statistical analyses compared clinical responders and non-responders. RESULTS: The median time on ART was 20 months; 71 (47%) patients were ART clinical responders. Clinical non-responders were more likely to have started ART with advanced disease with significantly lower median percentage weight gain (6% versus 20%) with respect to pre-treatment levels. Sixty-one (86%) and 64 (81%) of clinical responders and non-responders, respectively, had undetectable viral loads. Genotyping was successful in 24 (96%) virologically failing patients, among whom 83% had resistance mutations; 67% had dual nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI)/non-NRTI (NNRTI) resistance mutations. Seventeen (71%) and 19 (79%) patients had NRTI and NNRTI resistance mutations, respectively, which were related to the ART in use, with no difference between clinical responders and non-responders. The most prevalent subtypes were A and C, found in 9 (38%) and 7 (29%) patients, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The observed virological response was high and did not correlate with clinical response. The prevalence of ARV resistance mutations was high in viraemic patients and was related to the ARV prescribed. We recommend use of viral load monitoring during ART in Tanzania.

Trends and predictors of transmitted drug resistance (TDR) and clusters with TDR in a local Belgian HIV-1 epidemic.

We aimed to study epidemic trends and predictors for transmitted drug resistance (TDR) in our region, its clinical impact and its association with transmission clusters. We included 778 patients from the AIDS Reference Center in Leuven (Belgium) diagnosed from 1998 to 2012. Resistance testing was performed using population-based sequencing and TDR was estimated using the WHO-2009 surveillance list. Phylogenetic analysis was performed using maximum likelihood and Bayesian techniques. The cohort was predominantly Belgian (58.4%), men who have sex with men (MSM) (42.8%), and chronically infected (86.5%). The overall TDR prevalence was 9.6% (95% confidence interval (CI): 7.7-11.9), 6.5% (CI: 5.0-8.5) for nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTI), 2.2% (CI: 1.4-3.5) for non-NRTI (NNRTI), and 2.2% (CI: 1.4-3.5) for protease inhibitors. A significant parabolic trend of NNRTI-TDR was found (p = 0.019). Factors significantly associated with TDR in univariate analysis were male gender, Belgian origin, MSM, recent infection, transmission clusters and subtype B, while multivariate and Bayesian network analysis singled out subtype B as the most predictive factor of TDR. Subtype B was related with transmission clusters with TDR that included 42.6% of the TDR patients. Thanks to resistance testing, 83% of the patients with TDR who started therapy had undetectable viral load whereas half of the patients would likely have received a suboptimal therapy without this test. In conclusion, TDR remained stable and a NNRTI up-and-down trend was observed. While the presence of clusters with TDR is worrying, we could not identify an independent, non-sequence based predictor for TDR or transmission clusters with TDR that could help with guidelines or public health measures.

Patterns of transmitted HIV drug resistance in Europe vary by risk group.

BACKGROUND: In Europe, a continuous programme (SPREAD) has been in place for ten years to study transmission of drug resistant HIV. We analysed time trends of transmitted drug resistance mutations (TDRM) in relation to the risk behaviour reported. METHODS: HIV-1 patients newly diagnosed in 27 countries from 2002 through 2007 were included. Inclusion was representative for risk group and geographical distribution in the participating countries in Europe. Trends over time were calculated by logistic regression. RESULTS: From the 4317 patients included, the majority was men-having-sex-with-men -MSM (2084, 48%), followed by heterosexuals (1501, 35%) and injection drug users (IDU) (355, 8%). MSM were more often from Western Europe origin, infected with subtype B virus, and recently infected (<1 year) (p<0.001). The prevalence of TDRM was highest in MSM (prevalence of 11.1%), followed by heterosexuals (6.6%) and IDU (5.1%, p<0.001). TDRM was predominantly ascribed to nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTI) with a prevalence of 6.6% in MSM, 3.3% in heterosexuals and 2.0% in IDU (p = 0.001). A significant increase in resistance to non- nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs) and a decrease in resistance to protease inhibitors was observed in MSM (p = 0.008 and p = 0.006, respectively), but not in heterosexual patients (p = 0.68 and p = 0.14, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: MSM showed to have significantly higher TDRM prevalence compared to heterosexuals and IDU. The increasing NNRTI resistance in MSM is likely to negatively influence the therapy response of first-line therapy, as most include NNRTI drugs.

Evolutionary analysis of HBV "S" antigen genetic diversity in Iranian blood donors: a nationwide study.

The genetic diversity of the HBV S gene has a significant impact on the prophylaxis and treatment of hepatitis B infection. The effect of selective pressure on this genetic alteration has not yet been studied in Iranian blood donors. To explore HBV evolution and to analyze the effects and patterns of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) mutations on blood screening assays, 358 Iranian blood donors diagnosed as asymptomatic HBV carriers were enrolled in this nationwide study. Large S and partial S genes were amplified and sequenced. HBV (sub) genotypes and synonymous and nonsynonymous mutations were investigated. The impact of naturally occurring mutations on HBsAg ELISA results was explored. Phylogenetic analyses revealed that isolated strains were of genotype D. The dominant subgenotype/subtype was D1/ayw2. Deletions and naturally occurring stop codons in the pre-S1 and major hydrophilic region (MHR) were identified. In total, 32.8% of the studied strains harbored 195 single or multiple mutations in the MHR, the majority of which were located at the first loop of the "a determinant" domain. The ayw2 subtype showed a significant effect on the ELISA signal/cut-off value and carried fewer mutations in the MHR. Nonsynonymous/synonymous substitution value indicated that negative selection was the dominant evolutionary force in the HBV S gene. This nationwide study revealed that mutation frequency of HBsAg among Iranian blood donors was much higher than previous reports from the different local regions. These findings regarding the significant differences in reactivity of ELISA among different subtypes of HBV and its correlation with the number of mutations at the MHR will be valuable to public health authorities.

Clinical evaluation of Rega 8: an updated genotypic interpretation system that significantly predicts HIV-therapy response.

INTRODUCTION: Clinically evaluating genotypic interpretation systems is essential to provide optimal guidance in designing potent individualized HIV-regimens. This study aimed at investigating the ability of the latest Rega algorithm to predict virological response on a short and longer period. MATERIALS METHODS: 9231 treatment changes episodes were extracted from an integrated patient database. The virological response after 8, 24 and 48 weeks was dichotomized to success and failure. Success was defined as a viral load below 50 copies/ml or alternatively, a 2 log decrease from the baseline viral load at 8 weeks. The predictive ability of Rega version 8 was analysed in comparison with that of previous evaluated version Rega 5 and two other algorithms (ANRS v2011.05 and Stanford HIVdb v6.0.11). A logistic model based on the genotypic susceptibility score was used to predict virological response, and additionally, confounding factors were added to the model. Performance of the models was compared using the area under the ROC curve (AUC) and a Wilcoxon signed-rank test. RESULTS: Per unit increase of the GSS reported by Rega 8, the odds on having a successful therapy response on week 8 increased significantly by 81% (OR = 1.81, CI = [1.76-1.86]), on week 24 by 73% (OR = 1.73, CI = [1.69-1.78]) and on week 48 by 85% (OR = 1.85, CI = [1.80-1.91]). No significant differences in AUC were found between the performance of Rega 8 and Rega 5, ANRS v2011.05 and Stanford HIVdb v6.0.11, however Rega 8 had the highest sensitivity: 76.9%, 76.5% and 77.2% on 8, 24 and 48 weeks respectively. Inclusion of additional factors increased the performance significantly. CONCLUSION: Rega 8 is a significant predictor for virological response with a better sensitivity than previously, and with rules for recently approved drugs. Additional variables should be taken into account to ensure an effective regimen.

HIV-1 fitness landscape models for indinavir treatment pressure using observed evolution in longitudinal sequence data are predictive for treatment failure.

We previously modeled the in vivo evolution of human immunodeficiency virus-1 (HIV-1) under drug selective pressure from cross-sectional viral sequences. These fitness landscapes (FLs) were made by using first a Bayesian network (BN) to map epistatic substitutions, followed by scaling the fitness landscape based on an HIV evolution simulator trying to evolve the sequences from treatment naïve patients into sequences from patients failing treatment. In this study, we compared four FLs trained with different sequence populations. Epistatic interactions were learned from three different cross-sectional BNs, trained with sequence from patients experienced with indinavir (BNT), all protease inhibitors (PIs) (BNP) or all PI except indinavir (BND). Scaling the fitness landscape was done using cross-sectional data from drug naïve and indinavir experienced patients (Fcross using BNT) and using longitudinal sequences from patients failing indinavir (FlongT using BNT, FlongP using BNP, FlongD using BND). Evaluation to predict the failing sequence and therapy outcome was performed on independent sequences of patients on indinavir. Parameters included estimated fitness (LogF), the number of generations (GF) or mutations (MF) to reach the fitness threshold (average fitness when a major resistance mutation appeared), the number of generations (GR) or mutations (MR) to reach a major resistance mutation and compared to genotypic susceptibility score (GSS) from Rega and HIVdb algorithms. In pairwise FL comparisons we found significant correlation between fitness values for individual sequences, and this correlation improved after correcting for the subtype. Furthermore, FLs could predict the failing sequence under indinavir-containing combinations. At 12 and 48 weeks, all parameters from all FLs and indinavir GSS (both for Rega and HIVdb) were predictive of therapy outcome, except MR for FlongT and FlongP. The fitness landscapes have similar predictive power for treatment response under indinavir-containing regimen as standard rules-based algorithms, and additionally allow predicting genetic evolution under indinavir selective pressure.