Prediction of pre-eclampsia-related complications in women with suspected or confirmed pre-eclampsia: development and internal validation of clinical prediction model.

OBJECTIVE: A model that can predict reliably the risk of pre-eclampsia (PE)-related pregnancy complications does not exist. The aim of this study was to develop and validate internally a clinical prediction model to predict the risk of a composite outcome of PE-related maternal and fetal complications within 7, 14 and 30 days of testing in women with suspected or confirmed PE. METHODS: The data for this study were derived from a prospective, multicenter, observational cohort study on women with a singleton pregnancy and suspected or confirmed PE at 20 to < 37 weeks' gestation. For the development of the prediction model, the possible contribution of clinical and standard laboratory variables, as well as the biomarkers soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1 (sFlt-1), placental growth factor (PlGF) and their ratio, in the prediction of a composite outcome of PE-related complications, consisting of maternal and fetal adverse events within 7, 14 and 30 days, was explored using multivariable competing-risks regression analysis. The discriminative ability of the model was assessed using the concordance (c-) statistic. A bootstrap validation procedure with 500 replications was used to correct the estimate of the prediction model performance for optimism and to compute a shrinkage factor for the regression coefficients to correct for overfitting. RESULTS: Among 384 women with suspected or confirmed PE, 96 (25%) had an adverse PE-related outcome at any time after hospital admission. Important predictors of adverse PE-related outcome included sFlt-1/PlGF ratio, gestational age at the time of biomarker measurement and protein-to-creatinine ratio as continuous variables. The c-statistics (corrected for optimism) for developing a PE-related complication within 7, 14 and 30 days were 0.89, 0.88 and 0.87, respectively. There was limited overfitting, as indicated by a shrinkage factor of 0.91. CONCLUSIONS: We propose a simple clinical prediction model with good discriminative performance to predict PE-related complications. Determination of its usefulness in clinical practice awaits further investigation and external validation. © 2020 The Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Asymptomatic synovitis precedes clinically manifest arthritis.

OBJECTIVE: It has been hypothesized that asymptomatic synovitis may precede clinical manifestations of arthritis in the earliest phase of rheumatoid arthritis (RA). To obtain more insight into this disease phase, we investigated the immunohistologic features of synovial tissue (ST) from the knee joints of rhesus monkeys with induced arthritis and from RA patients with both clinically involved and clinically uninvolved knee joints. METHODS: Serial ST biopsy specimens from the knee joints of 4 rhesus monkeys that had been immunized with type II collagen and ST from 10 RA patients were investigated. Eight patients without inflammatory joint disease served as controls. RESULTS: In ST from immunized monkeys, an influx of macrophages was observed well before the occurrence of arthritis. Signs of inflammation were also demonstrated in ST from clinically uninvolved knee joints of all RA patients evaluated. The ST was characterized in particular by infiltration with macrophages and by the expression of macrophage-derived cytokines. CONCLUSION: The findings support the view that asymptomatic synovitis precedes clinically manifest arthritis in both early and established RA. This implies that the debut of RA already represents a chronic phase of the disease.