RESUMEN
Objective: Comorbidity has an important role in risk prediction and risk adjustment modelling in observational studies. However, it is unknown which comorbidity index is most accurate to predict mortality in hip fracture patients. We aimed to evaluate the prediction ability, including discrimination and calibration of Charlson comorbidity index (CCI), Elixhauser comorbidity index (ECI) and Rx-risk index for 30 day- and 1 year mortality in a population-based cohort of hip fracture surgery patients. Methods: Using the Danish Multidisciplinary Hip Fracture Registry in the period 2014-2018, 31,443 patients were included. CCI and ECI were based on discharge diagnoses, while Rx-Risk index was based on pharmacy dispensings. We used logistic regression to assess discrimination of the different indices, individually and in combinations, by calculating c-statistics and the contrast in c-statistic to a base model including only age and gender with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results: The study cohort were primarily female (69%) and older than 85 years (42%). The 30-day mortality was 10.1% and the 1-year mortality was 26.6%. Age and gender alone had a good discrimination ability for 30-day and 1-year mortality (c-statistic=0.70, CI: 0.69-0.71 and c-statistic=0.68, CI: 0.67 -0.69, respectively). By adding indices individually to the base model, Rx-risk index had the best 30-day and 1-year mortality discrimination ability (c-statistic=0.73, CI: 0.72-0.74 and 0.71 CI: 0.71-0.72, respectively). By adding combination of indices to the base model, a combination of CCI and the Rx-risk index had a 30-day and 1-year mortality discrimination ability of c-statistic=0.74, CI: 0.73-0.75 and c-statistic=0.73, CI: 0.73-0.74, respectively. Calibration of indices was similar. Conclusion: The highest discrimination ability was achieved by combining CCI and Rx-risk index in addition to age and gender. However, age and gender alone had a fair mortality discrimination ability.
RESUMEN
Background and purpose - Understanding the key drivers of hospital variation in postoperative infections after hip fracture surgery is important for directing quality improvements. Therefore, we investigated variation in the risk of any infection, and subgroups of infections including pneumonia and sepsis after hip fracture surgery.Methods - In this nationwide population-based cohort study, all Danish patients aged ≥ 65 undergoing surgery for an incident hip fracture from 2012 to 2017 were included. Risk of postoperative infections, based on data from hospital registration (hospital-treated infections) and antibiotic dispensing (community-treated infections), were calculated using multilevel Poisson regression analysis. Hospital variation was evaluated by intra-class coefficient (ICC) and median risk ratio (MRR).Results - The risk of hospital-treated infection was 15%. The risk of community-treated infection was 24%. The adjusted risk varied between hospitals from 7.8-25% for hospital-treated infection and 16-34% for community-treated infection. The ICC indicated that 19% of the adjusted variance was due to hospital level for hospital-treated infection. The ICC for community-treated infections was 13%. The MRR showed a 2-fold increased risk for the average patient acquiring a hospital-treated infection at the highest risk hospital compared with the lowest risk hospital. For community-treated infection, the MRR was 1.4.Interpretation - Our results suggest that 20% of infections could be reduced by applying the top performing hospitals' approach. Nearly a 5th of the variation was at the hospital level. This suggests a more standardized approach to avoid postoperative infection after hip fracture surgery.Hip fracture is a leading cause of hospital admission among the elderly. The 30-day mortality following hip fracture surgery has been approximately 10% during the last few years in Denmark (Pedersen et al. 2017). Higher mortality after hip fracture has been associated with a range of hospital factors (Kristensen et al. 2016, Sheehan et al. 2016) and patient factors in observational studies (Roche et al. 2005). Furthermore, variation in 30-day mortality after hip fracture surgery has been observed between Danish hospitals, but not fully explained (Kristensen et al. 2019).
