Global burden of oral cancer in 2022 attributable to smokeless tobacco and areca nut consumption: a population attributable fraction analysis.

BACKGROUND: Consuming products that contain smokeless tobacco or areca nut increases the risk of oral cancer. We aimed to estimate the burden of oral cancer attributable to smokeless tobacco or areca nut consumption globally and by type of smokeless tobacco or areca nut product in four major consuming countries. METHODS: We calculated population attributable fractions (PAFs) using prevalence of current use of smokeless tobacco or areca nut products from national surveys and corresponding risks of oral cancer from the literature. We applied PAFs to national estimates of oral cancer incidence in 2022 from the Global Cancer Observatory's Cancer Today database to obtain cases attributable to smokeless tobacco or areca nut consumption. We modelled 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) using Monte Carlo simulations. FINDINGS: Globally, an estimated 120 200 (95% UI 115 300-124 300) cases of oral cancer diagnosed in 2022 were attributable to smokeless tobacco or areca nut consumption, accounting for 30·8% (95% UI 29·6-31·9) of all oral cancer cases (120 200 of 389 800). An estimated 77% of attributable cases were among male patients (92 600 cases, 95% UI 88 000-96 500) and 23% were among female patients (27 600 cases, 26 000-29 000). Regions with the highest PAFs were Melanesia, Micronesia, and Polynesia (78·6%, 95% UI 74·4-80·5), southcentral Asia (57·5%, 54·8-59·5), and southeastern Asia (19·8%, 19·0-20·6). Lower-middle-income countries represented 90·2% of the world total attributable cases (108 400 cases, 95% UI 103 400-112 200). INTERPRETATION: Our findings suggest that one in three cases of oral cancer globally are attributable to smokeless tobacco or areca nut consumption, and could be prevented through smokeless tobacco and areca nut control. Global cancer control efforts must incorporate further measures to reduce smokeless tobacco and areca nut consumption in populations with the largest attributable burden. FUNDING: French National Cancer Institute.

The current and future cancer burden in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries.

BACKGROUND: Cancer is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. This study aims to provide cancer incidence and mortality estimates in 2020 in the GCC countries alongside future projections for 2040 to shape cancer control policy in the region. METHODS: The estimated numbers of new cancer cases and deaths were extracted from the GLOBOCAN database developed by the International Agency for Research on Cancer; new cancer cases, cancer deaths, and corresponding age-standardized incidence and mortality rates for the year 2020 are presented. RESULTS: An estimated 42,475 new cancer cases and 19,895 deaths occurred in the GCC countries in 2020, with corresponding age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of 96.5 and 52.3 per 100,000, respectively. Female breast (16%), colorectal (13%), and thyroid (9%) were the most common types of cancer in the GCC countries, accounting for almost 40% of all cancer incidence. Colorectal (14%) followed by breast cancer (9%) were the leading causes of cancer death, though the magnitude of rates of the major cancer types varied substantially across the GCC countries. Even if we assume rates in the region will remain unchanged over the next two decades, the cancer burden in the GCC will increase by 116% (Saudi Arabia) to 270% (Qatar), reaching nearly 104,000 cancer cases by the year 2040. CONCLUSION: The sharp increase in the estimated cancer incidence and mortality predicted over the next decades in the region requires workforce and financial planning for the healthcare systems in the constituent countries, alongside broader strengthening of national cancer prevention and control efforts.

Global burden of bladder cancer mortality in 2020 and 2040 according to GLOBOCAN estimates.

INTRODUCTION: In 2020, bladder cancer (BC) was the seventh most prevalent cancer in the world, with 5-year prevalence of more than 1.7 million cases. Due to the main risk factors-smoking and chemical exposures-associated with BC, it is considered a largely preventable and avoidable cancer. An overview of BC mortality can allow an insight not only into the prevalence of global risk factors, but also into the varying efficiency of healthcare systems worldwide. For this purpose, this study analyzes the national mortality estimates for 2020 and projected future trends up to 2040. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Age-standardized mortality rates per 100,000 person-years of BC for 185 countries by sex were obtained from the GLOBOCAN 2020 database, operated by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC). Mortality rates were stratified according to sex and Human Development Index (HDI). BC deaths were projected up to 2040 on the basis of demographic changes, alongside different scenarios of annually increasing, stable or decreasing mortality rates from the baseline year of 2020. RESULTS: In 2020, nearly three times more men died from BC than women, with more than 210,000 deaths in both sexes combined, worldwide. Regardless of gender, more than half of the total BC deaths were from countries with a very high HDI. According to our projections, while the number of deaths for men can only increase up to 54% (from 159 to around 163-245 thousand), for women it is projected to increase two- to three-fold (from 50 to around 119-176 thousand) by 2040. The burden of BC mortality in countries with a very high HDI versus high HDI appears to converge by 2040 for both sexes. CONCLUSION: Opposite mortality trends by gender highlight the urgent need for immediate interventions to expand anti-tobacco strategies, especially for women. The implementation of more strict occupational health and safety regulations could also prevent exposures associated with BC. Improving the ability to detect BC earlier and access to treatment can have a significant positive impact on reducing mortality rates, minimizing economic costs, and enhancing the quality of life for patients.

Global Stage Distribution of Breast Cancer at Diagnosis: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Importance: Stage at diagnosis is a key prognostic factor for cancer survival. Objective: To assess the global distribution of breast cancer stage by country, age group, calendar period, and socioeconomic status using population-based data. Data Sources: A systematic search of MEDLINE and Web of Science databases and registry websites and gray literature was conducted for articles or reports published between January 1, 2000, and June 20, 2022. Study Selection: Reports on stage at diagnosis for individuals with primary breast cancer (C50) from a population-based cancer registry were included. Data Extraction and Synthesis: Study characteristics and results of eligible studies were independently extracted by 2 pairs of reviewers (J.D.B.F., A.D.A., A.M., R.S., and F.G.). Stage-specific proportions were extracted and cancer registry data quality and risk of bias were assessed. National pooled estimates were calculated for subnational or annual data sets using a hierarchical rule of the most relevant and high-quality data to avoid duplicates. Main Outcomes and Measures: The proportion of women with breast cancer by (TNM Classification of Malignant Tumors or the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program [SEER]) stage group. Results: Data were available for 2.4 million women with breast cancer from 81 countries. Globally, the proportion of cases with distant metastatic breast cancer at diagnosis was high in sub-Saharan Africa, ranging from 5.6% to 30.6% and low in North America ranging from 0.0% to 6.0%. The proportion of patients diagnosed with distant metastatic disease decreased over the past 2 decades from around 3.8% to 35.8% (early 2000s) to 3.2% to 11.6% (2015 onwards), yet stabilization or slight increases were also observed. Older age and lower socioeconomic status had the largest proportion of cases diagnosed with distant metastatic stage ranging from 2.0% to 15.7% among the younger to 4.1% to 33.9% among the oldest age group, and from 1.7% to 8.3% in the least disadvantaged groups to 2.8% to 11.4% in the most disadvantaged groups. Conclusions and Relevance: Effective policy and interventions have resulted in decreased proportions of women diagnosed with metastatic breast cancer at diagnosis in high-income countries, yet inequality persists, which needs to be addressed through increased awareness of breast cancer symptoms and early detection. Improving global coverage and quality of population-based cancer registries, including the collection of standardized stage data, is key to monitoring progress.

Quantitative estimates of preventable and treatable deaths from 36 cancers worldwide: a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Cancer is a leading cause of premature mortality globally. This study estimates premature deaths at ages 30-69 years and distinguishes these as deaths that are preventable (avertable through primary or secondary prevention) or treatable (avertable through curative treatment) in 185 countries worldwide. METHODS: For this population-based study, estimated cancer deaths by country, cancer, sex, and age groups were retrieved from the International Agency for Research on Cancer's GLOBOCAN 2020 database. Crude and age-adjusted cancer-specific years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated for 36 cancer types. FINDINGS: Of the estimated all-ages cancer burden of 265·6 million YLLs, 182·8 million (68·8%) YLLs were due to premature deaths from cancer globally in 2020, with 124·3 million (68·0%) preventable and 58·5 million (32·0%) treatable. Countries with low, medium, or high human development index (HDI) levels all had greater proportions of YLLs at premature ages than very high HDI countries (68·9%, 77·0%, and 72·2% vs 57·7%, respectively). Lung cancer was the leading contributor to preventable premature YLLs in medium to very high HDI countries (17·4% of all cancers, or 29·7 million of 171·3 million YLLs), whereas cervical cancer led in low HDI countries (26·3% of all preventable cancers, or 1·83 million of 6·93 million YLLs). Colorectal and breast cancers were major treatable cancers across all four tiers of HDI (25·5% of all treatable cancers in combination, or 14·9 million of 58·5 million YLLs). INTERPRETATION: Alongside tailored programmes of early diagnosis and screening linked to timely and comprehensive treatment, greater investments in risk factor reduction and vaccination are needed to address premature cancer inequalities. FUNDING: Erasmus Mundus Exchange Programme and the International Agency for Research on Cancer. TRANSLATIONS: For the German, French, Spanish and Chinese translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Lung cancer mortality in the wake of the changing smoking epidemic: a descriptive study of the global burden in 2020 and 2040.

OBJECTIVES: Lung cancer (LC) is the leading cause of cancer death in 2020, responsible for almost one in five (18.0%) deaths. This paper provides an overview of the descriptive epidemiology of LC based on national mortality estimates for 2020 from the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), and in the context of recent tobacco control policies. DESIGN AND SETTING: For this descriptive study, age-standardised mortality rates per 100 000 person-years of LC for 185 countries by sex were obtained from the GLOBOCAN 2020 database and stratified by Human Development Index (HDI). LC deaths were projected to 2040 based on demographic changes alongside scenarios of annually increasing, stable or decreasing rates from the baseline year of 2020. RESULTS: LC mortality rates exhibited marked variations by geography and sex. Low HDI countries, many of them within sub-Saharan Africa, tend to have low levels of mortality and an upward trend in LC deaths is predicted for both sexes until 2040 according to demographic projections, irrespective of trends in rates. In very high HDI countries, including Europe, Northern America and Australia/New Zealand, there are broadly decreasing trends in men whereas in women, rates are still increasing or reaching a plateau. CONCLUSION: The current and future burden of LC in a country or region largely depends on the present trajectory of the smoking epidemic in its constituent populations, with distinct gender differences in smoking patterns, both in transitioning and transitioned countries. Further elevations in LC mortality are expected worldwide, raising important social and political questions, especially in low-income and middle-income countries.

Global burden of colorectal cancer in 2020 and 2040: incidence and mortality estimates from GLOBOCAN.

OBJECTIVE: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most common cancer worldwide. The geographical and temporal burden of this cancer provides insights into risk factor prevalence and progress in cancer control strategies. We examine the current and future burden of CRC in 185 countries in 2020 and 2040. METHODS: Data on CRC cases and deaths were extracted from the GLOBOCAN database for the year 2020. Age-standardised incidence and mortality rates were calculated by sex, country, world region and Human Development Index (HDI) for 185 countries. Age-specific rates were also estimated. The predicted number of cases and deaths in 2040 were calculated based on global demographic projections by HDI. RESULTS: Over 1.9 million new CRC cases and 930 000 deaths were estimated in 2020. Incidence rates were highest in Australia/ New Zealand and European regions (40.6 per 100 000, males) and lowest in several African regions and Southern Asia (4.4 per 100 000, females). Similar patterns were observed for mortality rates, with the highest observed in Eastern Europe (20.2 per 100 000, males) and the lowest in Southern Asia (2.5 per 100 000, females). The burden of CRC is projected to increase to 3.2 million new cases and 1.6 million deaths by 2040 with most cases predicted to occur in high or very high HDI countries. CONCLUSIONS: CRC is a highly frequent cancer worldwide, and largely preventable through changes in modifiable risk factors, alongside the detection and removal of precancerous lesions. With increasing rates in transitioning countries and younger adults, there is a pressing need to better understand and act on findings to avert future cases and deaths from the disease.

Global estimates of incidence and mortality of cervical cancer in 2020: a baseline analysis of the WHO Global Cervical Cancer Elimination Initiative.

BACKGROUND: Tracking progress and providing timely evidence is a fundamental step forward for countries to remain aligned with the targets set by WHO to eliminate cervical cancer as a public health problem (ie, to reduce the incidence of the disease below a threshold of 4 cases per 100 000 women-years). We aimed to assess the extent of global inequalities in cervical cancer incidence and mortality, based on The Global Cancer Observatory (GLOBOCAN) 2020 estimates, including geographical and socioeconomic development, and temporal aspects. METHODS: For this analysis, we used the GLOBOCAN 2020 database to estimate the age-specific and age-standardised incidence and mortality rates of cervical cancer per 100 000 women-years for 185 countries or territories aggregated across the 20 UN-defined world regions, and by four-tier levels of the Human Development Index (HDI). Time trends (1988-2017) in incidence were extracted from the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents (CI5) plus database. Mortality estimates were obtained using the most recent national vital registration data from WHO. FINDINGS: Globally in 2020, there were an estimated 604 127 cervical cancer cases and 341 831 deaths, with a corresponding age-standardised incidence of 13·3 cases per 100 000 women-years (95% CI 13·3-13·3) and mortality rate of 7·2 deaths per 100 000 women-years (95% CI 7·2-7·3). Cervical cancer incidence ranged from 2·2 (1·9-2·4) in Iraq to 84·6 (74·8-94·3) in Eswatini. Mortality rates ranged from 1·0 (0·8-1·2) in Switzerland to 55·7 (47·7-63·7) in Eswatini. Age-standardised incidence was highest in Malawi (67·9 [95% CI 65·7 -70·1]) and Zambia (65·5 [63·0-67·9]) in Africa, Bolivia (36·6 [35·0-38·2]) and Paraguay (34·1 [32·1-36·1]) in Latin America, Maldives (24·5 [17·0-32·0]) and Indonesia (24·4 [24·2-24·7]) in Asia, and Fiji (29·8 [24·7-35·0]) and Papua New Guinea (29·2 [27·3-31·0]) in Melanesia. A clear socioeconomic gradient exists in cervical cancer, with decreasing rates as HDI increased. Incidence was three times higher in countries with low HDI than countries with very high HDI, whereas mortality rates were six times higher in low HDI countries versus very high HDI countries. In 2020 estimates, a general decline in incidence was observed in most countries of the world with representative trend data, with incidence becoming stable at relatively low levels around 2005 in several high-income countries. By contrast, in the same period incidence increased in some countries in eastern Africa and eastern Europe. We observed different patterns of age-specific incidence between countries with well developed population-based screening and treatment services (eg, Sweden, Australia, and the UK) and countries with insufficient and opportunistic services (eg, Colombia, India, and Uganda). INTERPRETATION: The burden of cervical cancer remains high in many parts of the world, and in most countries, the incidence and mortality of the disease remain much higher than the threshold set by the WHO initiative on cervical cancer elimination. We identified substantial geographical and socioeconomic inequalities in cervical cancer globally, with a clear gradient of increasing rates for countries with lower levels of human development. Our study provides timely evidence and impetus for future strategies that prioritise and accelerate progress towards the WHO elimination targets and, in so doing, address the marked variations in the global cervical cancer landscape today. FUNDING: French Institut National du Cancer, Horizon 2020 Framework Programme for Research and Innovation of the European Commission; and EU4Health Programme.

Estimated number of cancers attributable to occupational exposures in France in 2017: an update using a new method for improved estimates.

BACKGROUND: Over the last 50 years, occupational exposure to carcinogenic agents has been widely regulated in France. OBJECTIVE: Report population-attributable fraction (PAF) and number of attributable cancer cases linked to occupational exposure in France based on an updated method to estimate lifetime occupational exposure prevalence. METHODS: Population-level prevalence of lifetime exposure to ten carcinogenic agents (asbestos, benzene, chromium VI, diesel engine exhaust, formaldehyde, nickel compounds, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, silica dust, trichloroethylene, wood dust) and two occupational circumstances (painters and rubber industry workers) were estimated using the French Census linked with MATGÉNÉ job-exposure matrices and French occupational surveys. PAF and number of attributable cancer cases were calculated using the estimated prevalence, relative risks from systematic review and national estimates of cancer incidence in 2017. RESULTS: The lifetime occupational exposure prevalences were much higher in men than in women ranging from 0.2% (workers in the rubber industry) to 10.2% in men (silica), and from 0.10% (benzene, PAH and workers in the rubber industry) to 5.7% in women (formaldehyde). In total, 4,818 cancer cases (men: 4,223; women: 595) were attributable to the ten studied carcinogens and two occupational circumstances, representing 5.2% of cases among the studied cancer sites (M: 7.0%; W: 1.9%). In both sexes, mesothelioma (M: 689 cases; W: 160) and lung cancer (M: 3,032; W: 308) were the largest cancer sites impacted by the studied occupational agents and circumstances. SIGNIFICANCE: A moderate proportion of the cancer cases in France is linked to carcinogens in occupational settings. Our method provides more precise estimates of attributable cancer taking into account evolution of exposure to occupational agents by sex, age and time. This methodology can be easily replicated using cross-sectional occupational data to aid priority making and implementation of prevention strategies in the workplace.

The preventability of cancer in Europe: A quantitative assessment of avoidable cancer cases across 17 cancer sites and 38 countries in 2020.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study is to provide an update of the estimated proportion of avoidable cases across European region for cancers associated with modifiable risk factors. METHODS: Age-standardised incidence rates for 38 European countries in 2020 were derived from GLOBOCAN database. For 17 cancer sites, we estimated the number and proportion of avoidable cancer cases. The mean of the three lowest country-specific incidence (excluding rates of zero) was defined as the attainable rate for each combination of cancer site, sex, and age group. The number and proportion of avoidable cancer cases was calculated as the difference between the country-specific and attainable incidence rates. RESULTS: Approximately, 697,000 cancer cases (33%) of all cases in men, and 837,000 (44%) in women were potentially avoidable. Lung, colorectal, and female breast cancer contributed the largest avoidable burden from cancer, with a combined 790,000 cases, followed by mesothelioma, melanoma of the skin, laryngeal, and oesophageal cancer as major contributors. Large geographical variations were found in the estimated proportion of avoidable cancer cases by sex. CONCLUSIONS: A cohesive population-level preventative effort to reduce modifiable cancer risk factors could potentially have considerable impact in reducing the future burden of many cancers in Europe.

Global burden of primary liver cancer in 2020 and predictions to 2040.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The burden of liver cancer varies across the world. Herein, we present updated estimates of the current global burden of liver cancer (incidence and mortality) and provide predictions of the number of cases/deaths to 2040. METHODS: We extracted data on primary liver cancer cases and deaths from the GLOBOCAN 2020 database, which includes 185 countries. Age-standardised incidence and mortality rates (ASRs) per 100,000 person-years were calculated. Cases and deaths up to the year 2040 were predicted based on incidence and mortality rates for 2020 and global demographic projections to 2040. RESULTS: In 2020, an estimated 905,700 people were diagnosed with, and 830,200 people died from, liver cancer globally. Global ASRs for liver cancer were 9.5 and 8.7 for new cases and deaths, respectively, per 100,000 people and were highest in Eastern Asia (17.8 new cases, 16.1 deaths), Northern Africa (15.2 new cases, 14.5 deaths), and South-Eastern Asia (13.7 new cases, 13.2 deaths). Liver cancer was among the top three causes of cancer death in 46 countries and was among the top five causes of cancer death in 90 countries. ASRs of both incidence and mortality were higher among males than females in all world regions (male:female ASR ratio ranged between 1.2-3.6). The number of new cases of liver cancer per year is predicted to increase by 55.0% between 2020 and 2040, with a possible 1.4 million people diagnosed in 2040. A predicted 1.3 million people could die from liver cancer in 2040 (56.4% more than in 2020). CONCLUSIONS: Liver cancer is a major cause of death in many countries, and the number of people diagnosed with liver cancer is predicted to rise. Efforts to reduce the incidence of preventable liver cancer should be prioritised. LAY SUMMARY: The burden of liver cancer varies across the world. Liver cancer was among the top three causes of cancer death in 46 countries and was among the top five causes of cancer death in 90 countries worldwide. We predict the number of cases and deaths will rise over the next 20 years as the world population grows. Primary liver cancer due to some causes is preventable if control efforts are prioritised and the predicted rise in cases may increase the need for resources to manage care of patients with liver cancer.

Current and future burden of breast cancer: Global statistics for 2020 and 2040.

BACKGROUND: Breast cancer is the most commonly diagnosed cancer worldwide, and its burden has been rising over the past decades. In this article, we examine and describe the global burden of breast cancer in 2020 and predictions for the year 2040. METHODS: Estimates of new female breast cancer cases and deaths in 2020 were abstracted from the GLOBOCAN database. Age-standardized incidence and mortality rates were calculated per 100,000 females by country, world region, and level of human development. Predicted cases and deaths were computed based on global demographic projections for the year 2040. RESULTS: Over 2.3 million new cases and 685,000 deaths from breast cancer occurred in 2020. Large geographic variation across countries and world regions exists, with incidence rates ranging from <40 per 100,000 females in some Asian and African countries, to over 80 per 100,000 in Australia/New Zealand, Northern America, and parts of Europe. Smaller geographical variation was observed for mortality; however, transitioning countries continue to carry a disproportionate share of breast cancer deaths relative to transitioned countries. By 2040, the burden from breast cancer is predicted to increase to over 3 million new cases and 1 million deaths every year because of population growth and ageing alone. CONCLUSION: Breast cancer is the most common cancer worldwide and continues to have a large impact on the global number of cancer deaths. Global efforts are needed to counteract its growing burden, especially in transitioning countries where incidence is rising rapidly, and mortality rates remain high.

The Current Burden of Oropharyngeal Cancer: A Global Assessment Based on GLOBOCAN 2020.

BACKGROUND: Oropharyngeal cancer (OPC) is a complex disease whose etiologies, either related to risk factors such as smoking or alcohol, or linked to HPV infection, are believed to be responsible for wide gender and geographical variability. This study depicts the current burden of OPC worldwide. METHODS: Estimated OPC new cases, deaths, age-standardized rates (ASR) for both incidence and mortality in 2020 were obtained from the GLOBOCAN database for each country and across 20 UN-defined world regions by sex. The incidence-to-mortality ratio (IMR) was also estimated from ASR. RESULTS: Worldwide, 98,400 new cases and 48,100 OPC deaths were estimated in 2020, with ASR of 1.1 and 0.51 per 100,000 for incidence and mortality, respectively. ASR for both incidence and mortality were approximately four times higher in men and varied greatly across geographical regions and countries within the same region. Higher incidence was estimated in Europe, North-America, Australia, and New Zealand. Mortality was the highest in Central-East Europe, Western Europe, Melanesia, South-Central Asia, and the Caribbean. South-Central Asia, most African areas, and Central America exhibited the lowest IMR values, whereas North-America, Australia, New Zealand, and North-Europe had the highest. CONCLUSIONS: The marked geographical and gender variability in OPC incidence and mortality is likely to reflect the distribution of risk factors and the diverse prevalence of HPV-negative and HPV-positive cases. IMPACT: Findings are likely to drive future research, support the development of targeted strategies to counteract disease burden, establish priorities for prevention and treatment programs, and address inequality in access to services.

The Global Landscape of Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma and Esophageal Adenocarcinoma Incidence and Mortality in 2020 and Projections to 2040: New Estimates From GLOBOCAN 2020.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The aim of this study was to provide an overview of the burden of esophageal cancer in 185 countries in 2020 and projections for the year 2040. METHODS: Estimates of esophageal cancer cases and deaths were extracted from the GLOBOCAN database for 2020. Age-standardized incidence and mortality rates were calculated overall, by sex, histologic subtype (adenocarcinoma [AC] and squamous cell carcinoma [SCC]), country, and level of human development for 185 countries. The predicted burden of incidence and mortality in 2040 was calculated based on global demographic projections. RESULTS: Globally, there were an estimated 604,100 new cases of, and 544,100 deaths from, esophageal cancer in 2020, corresponding to age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of 6.3 and 5.6 per 100,000, respectively. Most cases were SCCs (85% [512,500 cases]) and 14% (85,700 cases) were ACs. Incidence and mortality rates were 2- to 3-fold higher in male (9.3 and 8.2, respectively) compared with female (3.6 and 3.2, respectively) individuals. Global variations in incidence and mortality were observed across countries and world regions; the highest rates occurred in Eastern Asia and Southern and Eastern Africa and the lowest occurred in Western Africa and Central America regions. If rates remain stable, 957,000 new cases (141,300 AC cases and 806,000 SCC cases) and 880,000 deaths from esophageal cancer are expected in 2040. CONCLUSIONS: These updated estimates of the global burden of esophageal cancer represent an important baseline for setting priorities in policy making and developing and accelerating cancer control initiatives to reduce the current and projected burden. Although primary prevention remains key, screening and early detection represent important components of esophageal cancer control in high-risk populations.

The current and future incidence and mortality of gastric cancer in 185 countries, 2020-40: A population-based modelling study.

Background: To examine global patterns of gastric cancer in 2020 and the projected burden in 2040. Methods: Data on primary gastric cancer were extracted from the GLOBOCAN database for the year 2020. Age-standardized incidence and mortality rates were calculated by sex, country, world region and level of human development index (HDI) for 185 countries. The predicted burden of incidence and mortality in 2040 was calculated based on demographic projections. Findings: In total, ∼1.1 million new cases and 770,000 deaths of gastric cancer were estimated in 2020. Incidence rates were on average 2-fold higher in males than females (15.8 and 7.0 per 100,000, respectively) with variation across countries. Highest incidence rates were observed in Eastern Asia for both males and females (32.5 and 13.2, respectively); males residing in Japan (48.1), Mongolia (47.2) and Korea (39.7) had the highest rates in the world. Incidence was lowest in Africa with incidence rates < 5 per 100,000. Highest mortality rates were observed in Eastern Asia for both males (21.1) and females (8.8). A lower share of deaths was observed in very high HDI countries compared to medium and low HDI countries. The annual burden of gastric cancer is predicted to increase to ∼1.8 million new cases and ∼1.3 million deaths by 2040. Interpretation: These estimates of the global burden of gastric cancer pinpoint countries and regions of high incidence and mortality in need of cancer control initiatives. Primary prevention through eradication of H. pylori and behavioural changes such as reducing salt intake, smoking, obesity, and alcohol, remains key in stomach cancer control. Funding: No direct funding was received. All authors had access to the included study data and all authors agreed with the final decision to submit for publication.

Global Burden of Cutaneous Melanoma in 2020 and Projections to 2040.

Importance: Despite many cases being preventable, cutaneous melanoma remains the most serious skin cancer worldwide. Understanding the scale and profile of the disease is vital to concentrate and reinforce global prevention efforts. Objective: To examine global patterns of cutaneous melanoma in 2020 and to provide projected estimates of cases and deaths by 2040. Design, Setting, and Participants: This population-based study used the GLOBOCAN 2020 database for global epidemiological assessment of new cases and deaths due to invasive melanoma. Main Outcomes and Measures: Age-standardized incidence and mortality rates were calculated per 100 000 person-years by country, world region, and 4-tier level of human development. Estimated numbers of cases and deaths were calculated for the year 2040. Results: A worldwide total of 325 000 new melanoma cases (174 000 males, 151 000 females) and 57 000 deaths (32 000 males, 25 000 females) was estimated for 2020. Large geographic variations existed across countries and world regions, with the highest incidence rates among males (42 per 100 000 person-years) and females (31 per 100 000 person-years) observed in Australia/New Zealand, followed by Western Europe (19 per 100 000 person-years for males and females), North America (18 per 100 000 person-years for males, 14 per 100 000 person-years for females), and Northern Europe (17 per 100 000 person-years for males, 18 per 100 000 person-years for females). Melanoma continued to be rare in most African and Asian countries, with incidence rates commonly less than 1 per 100 000 person-years. Mortality rates peaked at 5 per 100 000 person-years in New Zealand, and geographic variations were less pronounced than for incidence. Melanoma was more frequent among males than females in most world regions. If 2020 rates continue, the burden from melanoma is estimated to increase to 510 000 new cases (a roughly 50% increase) and to 96 000 deaths (a 68% increase) by 2040. Conclusions and Relevance: This epidemiological assessment suggests that melanoma remains an important challenge to cancer control and public health globally, especially in fair-skinned populations of European descent.

Ovarian cancer today and tomorrow: A global assessment by world region and Human Development Index using GLOBOCAN 2020.

Ovarian cancer remains to have relatively poor prognosis particularly in low-resourced settings. It is therefore important to continually examine the burden of ovarian cancer to identify areas of disparities. Our study aims to provide an overview of the global burden of ovarian cancer using the GLOBOCAN 2020 estimates by country, world region, and Human Development Index (HDI) levels, as well as the predicted future burden by the year 2040 by HDI. Age-standardized incidence and mortality rates for ovarian cancer in 185 countries were calculated by country, world region, and for the four-tier HDI. The number of new cases and deaths were projected for the year 2040 based on demographic projections by HDI category. Approximately 314 000 new ovarian cancer cases and 207 000 deaths occurred in 2020. There were marked geographic variations in incidence rates, with the highest rates observed in European countries with very high HDI and low rates were found in African countries within the lowest HDI group. Comparable mortality rates were observed across the four-tier HDI. Relative to 2020 estimates, our projection for 2040 indicates approximately 96% and 100% increase in new ovarian cancer cases and deaths, respectively, among low HDI countries compared to 19% and 28% in very high HDI countries. Our study highlights the disproportionate current and future burden of ovarian cancer in countries with lower HDI levels, calling for global action to reduce the burden and inequality of ovarian cancer in access to quality cancer care and treatment.

The epidemiological landscape of thyroid cancer worldwide: GLOBOCAN estimates for incidence and mortality rates in 2020.

BACKGROUND: Thyroid cancer incidence rates have increased in many countries and settings; however, mortality rates have remained stable at lower rates. This epidemiological pattern has been largely attributed to an overdiagnosis effect. Timely evidence for the global epidemiological status is necessary to identify the magnitude of this problem and the areas mostly affected by it. We therefore aimed to provide an up-to-date assessment on the global distribution of thyroid cancer incidence and mortality rates in 2020. METHODS: We extracted age-standardised incidence and mortality rates per 100 000 person-years of thyroid cancer as defined by the International Classification of Diseases for Oncology 10th Revision (code C73), for 185 countries or territories by sex and 18 age groups (ie, 0-4, 5-9, …, 80-84, and ≥85 years) from the GLOBOCAN database. Both incidence and mortality estimates were presented by country and aggregated across the 20 UN-defined world regions and according to the UN's four-tier Human Development Index (ie, low, medium, high, and very high) in 2020. FINDINGS: Globally, in 2020, the age-standardised incidence rates of thyroid cancer were 10·1 per 100 000 women and 3·1 per 100 000 men, and age-standardised mortality rates were 0·5 per 100 000 women and 0·3 per 100 000 men. In both sexes, incidence rates were five times higher in high and very high Human Development Index countries than in low and medium Human Development Index countries, whereas mortality rates were relatively similar across different settings. Incidence rates in women differed by more than 15 times across world regions, with the highest incidence rates being in the Federated States of Micronesia and French Polynesia (18·5 per 100 000 women), North America (18·4 per 100 000), and east Asia (17·8 per 100 000, with South Korea reaching 45 per 100 000). Mortality rates were less than one per 100 000 in most countries and in both sexes. South Korea had the highest incidence-to-mortality rate ratio in both sexes, followed by Cyprus and Canada. INTERPRETATION: The current thyroid cancer epidemiological landscape is strongly suggestive of a large effect of overdiagnosis in many countries and settings worldwide, confirming the relevance of thyroid cancer overdiagnosis as a global public health problem. FUNDING: None.

Socioeconomic status and risk of lung cancer by histological subtype in the Nordic countries.

BACKGROUND: While the excess in lung cancer risk among lower socioeconomic status individuals has been widely described, the magnitude of this association across lung cancer subtypes, as well as histotype-related long-term incidence trends, are inconclusively reported. AIMS: We explored the variation in the incidence of the three main lung cancer histotypes (i.e. squamous cell carcinoma, small cell carcinoma and adenocarcinoma) by socioeconomic status (SES, i.e. upper and lower white collar, upper and lower blue collar, and farming/forestry/fishing) in the adult population of four Nordic countries (i.e. Sweden, Norway, Finland and Denmark). MATERIALS & METHODS: We have used data from the Nordic Occupational Cancer Study (NOCCA), computing age-standardized incidence rates per 100,000 person-years truncated at ages 50-69 years, by sex, histotype, country and SES, for the period 1971-2005. We estimated relative risks and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals through Poisson regression models, including terms for SES, age, sex and country, as indicated. RESULTS: A clear socioeconomic gradient, with a progressive increase in lung cancer risk as SES level decreases, was observed in all subtypes and in both sexes. Favourable lung cancer incidence trends were seen among men for squamous cell and small cell carcinomas, although for adenocarcinomas rates were increasing everywhere except for Finland. Among women, upward temporal trends were seen in all SES groups and for all subtypes, although rates increased to a greater extent for low, compared to high, SES, especially in Denmark and Norway. Farmers showed comparatively lower risks compared to other SES categories. DISCUSSION: This prospective cohort study shows that substantial socioeconomic inequalities in the incidence of the most important lung cancer histotypes exist in the Nordic Countries, and that these inequalities are on the rise, especially among women. CONCLUSION: Smoking habits are likely to largely explain the observed social gradient for lung cancer histotypes in both sexes.