Predictive scale-bridging simulations through active learning.

Throughout computational science, there is a growing need to utilize the continual improvements in raw computational horsepower to achieve greater physical fidelity through scale-bridging over brute-force increases in the number of mesh elements. For instance, quantitative predictions of transport in nanoporous media, critical to hydrocarbon extraction from tight shale formations, are impossible without accounting for molecular-level interactions. Similarly, inertial confinement fusion simulations rely on numerical diffusion to simulate molecular effects such as non-local transport and mixing without truly accounting for molecular interactions. With these two disparate applications in mind, we develop a novel capability which uses an active learning approach to optimize the use of local fine-scale simulations for informing coarse-scale hydrodynamics. Our approach addresses three challenges: forecasting continuum coarse-scale trajectory to speculatively execute new fine-scale molecular dynamics calculations, dynamically updating coarse-scale from fine-scale calculations, and quantifying uncertainty in neural network models.

Quantum algorithms for geologic fracture networks.

Solving large systems of equations is a challenge for modeling natural phenomena, such as simulating subsurface flow. To avoid systems that are intractable on current computers, it is often necessary to neglect information at small scales, an approach known as coarse-graining. For many practical applications, such as flow in porous, homogenous materials, coarse-graining offers a sufficiently-accurate approximation of the solution. Unfortunately, fractured systems cannot be accurately coarse-grained, as critical network topology exists at the smallest scales, including topology that can push the network across a percolation threshold. Therefore, new techniques are necessary to accurately model important fracture systems. Quantum algorithms for solving linear systems offer a theoretically-exponential improvement over their classical counterparts, and in this work we introduce two quantum algorithms for fractured flow. The first algorithm, designed for future quantum computers which operate without error, has enormous potential, but we demonstrate that current hardware is too noisy for adequate performance. The second algorithm, designed to be noise resilient, already performs well for problems of small to medium size (order 10-1000 nodes), which we demonstrate experimentally and explain theoretically. We expect further improvements by leveraging quantum error mitigation and preconditioning.

Quantum computing and preconditioners for hydrological linear systems.

Modeling hydrological fracture networks is a hallmark challenge in computational earth sciences. Accurately predicting critical features of fracture systems, e.g. percolation, can require solving large linear systems far beyond current or future high performance capabilities. Quantum computers can theoretically bypass the memory and speed constraints faced by classical approaches, however several technical issues must first be addressed. Chief amongst these difficulties is that such systems are often ill-conditioned, i.e. small changes in the system can produce large changes in the solution, which can slow down the performance of linear solving algorithms. We test several existing quantum techniques to improve the condition number, but find they are insufficient. We then introduce the inverse Laplacian preconditioner, which improves the scaling of the condition number of the system from O(N) to [Formula: see text] and admits a quantum implementation. These results are a critical first step in developing a quantum solver for fracture systems, both advancing the state of hydrological modeling and providing a novel real-world application for quantum linear systems algorithms.

Physics-informed machine learning with differentiable programming for heterogeneous underground reservoir pressure management.

Avoiding over-pressurization in subsurface reservoirs is critical for applications like CO[Formula: see text] sequestration and wastewater injection. Managing the pressures by controlling injection/extraction are challenging because of complex heterogeneity in the subsurface. The heterogeneity typically requires high-fidelity physics-based models to make predictions on CO[Formula: see text] fate. Furthermore, characterizing the heterogeneity accurately is fraught with parametric uncertainty. Accounting for both, heterogeneity and uncertainty, makes this a computationally-intensive problem challenging for current reservoir simulators. To tackle this, we use differentiable programming with a full-physics model and machine learning to determine the fluid extraction rates that prevent over-pressurization at critical reservoir locations. We use DPFEHM framework, which has trustworthy physics based on the standard two-point flux finite volume discretization and is also automatically differentiable like machine learning models. Our physics-informed machine learning framework uses convolutional neural networks to learn an appropriate extraction rate based on the permeability field. We also perform a hyperparameter search to improve the model's accuracy. Training and testing scenarios are executed to evaluate the feasibility of using physics-informed machine learning to manage reservoir pressures. We constructed and tested a sufficiently accurate simulator that is 400 000 times faster than the underlying physics-based simulator, allowing for near real-time analysis and robust uncertainty quantification.

Enhancing high-fidelity nonlinear solver with reduced order model.

We propose the use of reduced order modeling (ROM) to reduce the computational cost and improve the convergence rate of nonlinear solvers of full order models (FOM) for solving partial differential equations. In this study, a novel ROM-assisted approach is developed to improve the computational efficiency of FOM nonlinear solvers by using ROM's prediction as an initial guess. We hypothesize that the nonlinear solver will take fewer steps to the converged solutions with an initial guess that is closer to the real solutions. To evaluate our approach, four physical problems with varying degrees of nonlinearity in flow and mechanics have been tested: Richards' equation of water flow in heterogeneous porous media, a contact problem in a hyperelastic material, two-phase flow in layered porous media, and fracture propagation in a homogeneous material. Overall, our approach maintains the FOM's accuracy while speeding up nonlinear solver by 18-73% (through suitable ROM-assisted FOMs). More importantly, the proximity of ROM's prediction to the solution space leads to the improved convergence of FOMs that would have otherwise diverged with default initial guesses. We demonstrate that the ROM's accuracy can impact the computational efficiency with more accurate ROM solutions, resulting in a better cost reduction. We also illustrate that this approach could be used in many FOM discretizations (e.g., finite volume, finite element, or a combination of those). Since our ROMs are data-driven and non-intrusive, the proposed procedure can easily lend itself to any nonlinear physics-based problem.

A Dataset of 3D Structural and Simulated Transport Properties of Complex Porous Media.

Physical processes that occur within porous materials have wide-ranging applications including - but not limited to - carbon sequestration, battery technology, membranes, oil and gas, geothermal energy, nuclear waste disposal, water resource management. The equations that describe these physical processes have been studied extensively; however, approximating them numerically requires immense computational resources due to the complex behavior that arises from the geometrically-intricate solid boundary conditions in porous materials. Here, we introduce a new dataset of unprecedented scale and breadth, DRP-372: a catalog of 3D geometries, simulation results, and structural properties of samples hosted on the Digital Rocks Portal. The dataset includes 1736 flow and electrical simulation results on 217 samples, which required more than 500 core years of computation. This data can be used for many purposes, such as constructing empirical models, validating new simulation codes, and developing machine learning algorithms that closely match the extensive purely-physical simulation. This article offers a detailed description of the contents of the dataset including the data collection, simulation schemes, and data validation.

A machine learning framework for rapid forecasting and history matching in unconventional reservoirs.

We present a novel workflow for forecasting production in unconventional reservoirs using reduced-order models and machine-learning. Our physics-informed machine-learning workflow addresses the challenges to real-time reservoir management in unconventionals, namely the lack of data (i.e., the time-frame for which the wells have been producing), and the significant computational expense of high-fidelity modeling. We do this by applying the machine-learning paradigm of transfer learning, where we combine fast, but less accurate reduced-order models with slow, but accurate high-fidelity models. We use the Patzek model (Proc Natl Acad Sci 11:19731-19736, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1313380110 , 2013) as the reduced-order model to generate synthetic production data and supplement this data with synthetic production data obtained from high-fidelity discrete fracture network simulations of the site of interest. Our results demonstrate that training with low-fidelity models is not sufficient for accurate forecasting, but transfer learning is able to augment the knowledge and perform well once trained with the small set of results from the high-fidelity model. Such a physics-informed machine-learning (PIML) workflow, grounded in physics, is a viable candidate for real-time history matching and production forecasting in a fractured shale gas reservoir.

Uranium carbonate complexes demonstrate drastic decrease in stability at elevated temperatures.

Quantitative understanding of uranium transport by high temperature fluids is crucial for confident assessment of its migration in a number of natural and artificially induced contexts, such as hydrothermal uranium ore deposits and nuclear waste stored in geological repositories. An additional recent and atypical context would be the seawater inundated fuel of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant. Given its wide applicability, understanding uranium transport will be useful regardless of whether nuclear power finds increased or decreased adoption in the future. The amount of uranium that can be carried by geofluids is enhanced by the formation of complexes with inorganic ligands. Carbonate has long been touted as a critical transporting ligand for uranium in both ore deposit and waste repository contexts. However, this paradigm has only been supported by experiments conducted at ambient conditions. We have experimentally evaluated the ability of carbonate-bearing fluids to dissolve (and therefore transport) uranium at high temperature, and discovered that in fact, at temperatures above 100 °C, carbonate becomes almost completely irrelevant as a transporting ligand. This demands a re-evaluation of a number of hydrothermal uranium transport models, as carbonate can no longer be considered key to the formation of uranium ore deposits or as an enabler of uranium transport from nuclear waste repositories at elevated temperatures.

A framework for data-driven solution and parameter estimation of PDEs using conditional generative adversarial networks.

Here we employ and adapt the image-to-image translation concept based on conditional generative adversarial networks (cGAN) for learning a forward and an inverse solution operator of partial differential equations (PDEs). We focus on steady-state solutions of coupled hydromechanical processes in heterogeneous porous media and present the parameterization of the spatially heterogeneous coefficients, which is exceedingly difficult using standard reduced-order modeling techniques. We show that our framework provides a speed-up of at least 2,000 times compared to a finite-element solver and achieves a relative root-mean-square error (r.m.s.e.) of less than 2% for forward modeling. For inverse modeling, the framework estimates the heterogeneous coefficients, given an input of pressure and/or displacement fields, with a relative r.m.s.e. of less than 7%, even for cases where the input data are incomplete and contaminated by noise. The framework also provides a speed-up of 120,000 times compared to a Gaussian prior-based inverse modeling approach while also delivering more accurate results.

Transient flow modeling in fractured media using graphs.

We describe a method to simulate transient fluid flows in fractured media using an approach based on graph theory. Our approach builds on past work where the graph-based approach was successfully used to simulate steady-state fluid flows in fractured media. We find a mean computational speedup of the order of 1400 from an ensemble of a 100 discrete fracture networks in contrast to the O(10^{4}) speedup that was obtained for steady-state flows earlier. However, the transient flows considered here involve an additional degree of complexity that was not present in the steady-state flows considered previously with a graph-based approach, that of time marching and solution of the flow equations within a time-stepping scheme. We verify our method with an analytical test case and demonstrate its use on a practical problem related to fluid flows in hydraulically fractured reservoirs. By enabling the study of transient flows, we create an opportunity for a wide set of possibilities where a steady-state approximation is not sufficient, such as the example motivated by hydraulic fracturing that we present here. This work validates the concept that graphs are able to reliably capture the topological properties of the fracture network and serve as effective surrogates in an uncertainty-quantification framework.

Crustal fingering facilitates free-gas methane migration through the hydrate stability zone.

Widespread seafloor methane venting has been reported in many regions of the world oceans in the past decade. Identifying and quantifying where and how much methane is being released into the ocean remains a major challenge and a critical gap in assessing the global carbon budget and predicting future climate [C. Ruppel, J. D. Kessler. Rev. Geophys. 55, 126-168 (2017)]. Methane hydrate ([Formula: see text]) is an ice-like solid that forms from methane-water mixture under elevated-pressure and low-temperature conditions typical of the deep marine settings (>600-m depth), often referred to as the hydrate stability zone (HSZ). Wide-ranging field evidence indicates that methane seepage often coexists with hydrate-bearing sediments within the HSZ, suggesting that hydrate formation may play an important role during the gas-migration process. At a depth that is too shallow for hydrate formation, existing theories suggest that gas migration occurs via capillary invasion and/or initiation and propagation of fractures (Fig. 1). Within the HSZ, however, a theoretical mechanism that addresses the way in which hydrate formation participates in the gas-percolation process is missing. Here, we study, experimentally and computationally, the mechanics of gas percolation under hydrate-forming conditions. We uncover a phenomenon-crustal fingering-and demonstrate how it may control methane-gas migration in ocean sediments within the HSZ.

3D particle transport in multichannel microfluidic networks with rough surfaces.

The transport of particles and fluids through multichannel microfluidic networks is influenced by details of the channels. Because channels have micro-scale textures and macro-scale geometries, this transport can differ from the case of ideally smooth channels. Surfaces of real channels have irregular boundary conditions to which streamlines adapt and with which particle interact. In low-Reynolds number flows, particles may experience inertial forces that result in trans-streamline movement and the reorganization of particle distributions. Such transport is intrinsically 3D and an accurate measurement must capture movement in all directions. To measure the effects of non-ideal surface textures on particle transport through complex networks, we developed an extended field-of-view 3D macroscope for high-resolution tracking across large volumes ([Formula: see text]) and investigated a model multichannel microfluidic network. A topographical profile of the microfluidic surfaces provided lattice Boltzmann simulations with a detailed feature map to precisely reconstruct the experimental environment. Particle distributions from simulations closely reproduced those observed experimentally and both measurements were sensitive to the effects of surface roughness. Under the conditions studied, inertial focusing organized large particles into an annular distribution that limited their transport throughout the network while small particles were transported uniformly to all regions.

Modeling and scale-bridging using machine learning: nanoconfinement effects in porous media.

Fine-scale models that represent first-principles physics are challenging to represent at larger scales of interest in many application areas. In nanoporous media such as tight-shale formations, where the typical pore size is less than 50 nm, confinement effects play a significant role in how fluids behave. At these scales, fluids are under confinement, affecting key properties such as density, viscosity, adsorption, etc. Pore-scale Lattice Boltzmann Methods (LBM) can simulate flow in complex pore structures relevant to predicting hydrocarbon production, but must be corrected to account for confinement effects. Molecular dynamics (MD) can model confinement effects but is computationally expensive in comparison. The hurdle to bridging MD with LBM is the computational expense of MD simulations needed to perform this correction. Here, we build a Machine Learning (ML) surrogate model that captures adsorption effects across a wide range of parameter space and bridges the MD and LBM scales using a relatively small number of MD calculations. The model computes upscaled adsorption parameters across varying density, temperature, and pore width. The ML model is 7 orders of magnitude faster than brute force MD. This workflow is agnostic to the physical system and could be generalized to further scale-bridging applications.

Branching of hydraulic cracks enabling permeability of gas or oil shale with closed natural fractures.

While hydraulic fracturing technology, aka fracking (or fraccing, frac), has become highly developed and astonishingly successful, a consistent formulation of the associated fracture mechanics that would not conflict with some observations is still unavailable. It is attempted here. Classical fracture mechanics, as well as current commercial software, predict vertical cracks to propagate without branching from the perforations of the horizontal well casing, which are typically spaced at 10 m or more. However, to explain the gas production rate at the wellhead, the crack spacing would have to be only about 0.1 m, which would increase the overall gas permeability of shale mass about 10,000×. This permeability increase has generally been attributed to a preexisting system of orthogonal natural cracks, whose spacing is about 0.1 m. However, their average age is about 100 million years, and a recent analysis indicated that these cracks must have been completely closed by secondary creep of shale in less than a million years. Here it is considered that the tectonic events that produced the natural cracks in shale must have also created weak layers with nanocracking or microcracking damage. It is numerically demonstrated that seepage forces and a greatly enhanced permeability along the weak layers, with a greatly increased transverse Biot coefficient, must cause the fracking to engender lateral branching and the opening of hydraulic cracks along the weak layers, even if these cracks are initially almost closed. A finite element crack band model, based on a recently developed anisotropic spherocylindrical microplane constitutive law, demonstrates these findings [Rahimi-Aghdam S, et al. (2018) arXiv:1212.11023].

Quantifying Topological Uncertainty in Fractured Systems using Graph Theory and Machine Learning.

Fractured systems are ubiquitous in natural and engineered applications as diverse as hydraulic fracturing, underground nuclear test detection, corrosive damage in materials and brittle failure of metals and ceramics. Microstructural information (fracture size, orientation, etc.) plays a key role in governing the dominant physics for these systems but can only be known statistically. Current models either ignore or idealize microscale information at these larger scales because we lack a framework that efficiently utilizes it in its entirety to predict macroscale behavior in brittle materials. We propose a method that integrates computational physics, machine learning and graph theory to make a paradigm shift from computationally intensive high-fidelity models to coarse-scale graphs without loss of critical structural information. We exploit the underlying discrete structure of fracture networks in systems considering flow through fractures and fracture propagation. We demonstrate that compact graph representations require significantly fewer degrees of freedom (dof) to capture micro-fracture information and further accelerate these models with Machine Learning. Our method has been shown to improve accuracy of predictions with up to four orders of magnitude speedup.

Arsenic mobilization in shallow aquifers due to CO2 and brine intrusion from storage reservoirs.

We developed an integrated framework of combined batch experiments and reactive transport simulations to quantify water-rock-CO2 interactions and arsenic (As) mobilization responses to CO2 and/or saline water leakage into USDWs. Experimental and simulation results suggest that when CO2 is introduced, pH drops immediately that initiates release of As from clay minerals. Calcite dissolution can increase pH slightly and cause As re-adsorption. Thus, the mineralogy of the USDW is ultimately a determining factor of arsenic fate and transport. Salient results suggest that: (1) As desorption/adsorption from/onto clay minerals is the major reaction controlling its mobilization, and clay minerals could mitigate As mobilization with surface complexation reactions; (2) dissolution of available calcite plays a critical role in buffering pH; (3) high salinity in general hinders As release from minerals; and (4) the magnitude and quantitative uncertainty of As mobilization are predicated on the values of reaction rates and surface area of calcite, adsorption surface areas and equilibrium constants of clay minerals, and cation exchange capacity. Results of this study are intended to improve ability to quantify risks associated with potential leakage of reservoir fluids into shallow aquifers, in particular the possible environmental impacts of As mobilization at carbon sequestration sites.

Analysis and Visualization of Discrete Fracture Networks Using a Flow Topology Graph.

We present an analysis and visualization prototype using the concept of a flow topology graph (FTG) for characterization of flow in constrained networks, with a focus on discrete fracture networks (DFN), developed collaboratively by geoscientists and visualization scientists. Our method allows users to understand and evaluate flow and transport in DFN simulations by computing statistical distributions, segment paths of interest, and cluster particles based on their paths. The new approach enables domain scientists to evaluate the accuracy of the simulations, visualize features of interest, and compare multiple realizations over a specific domain of interest. Geoscientists can simulate complex transport phenomena modeling large sites for networks consisting of several thousand fractures without compromising the geometry of the network. However, few tools exist for performing higher-level analysis and visualization of simulated DFN data. The prototype system we present addresses this need. We demonstrate its effectiveness for increasingly complex examples of DFNs, covering two distinct use cases - hydrocarbon extraction from unconventional resources and transport of dissolved contaminant from a spent nuclear fuel repository.

Predictions of first passage times in sparse discrete fracture networks using graph-based reductions.

We present a graph-based methodology to reduce the computational cost of obtaining first passage times through sparse fracture networks. We derive graph representations of generic three-dimensional discrete fracture networks (DFNs) using the DFN topology and flow boundary conditions. Subgraphs corresponding to the union of the k shortest paths between the inflow and outflow boundaries are identified and transport on their equivalent subnetworks is compared to transport through the full network. The number of paths included in the subgraphs is based on the scaling behavior of the number of edges in the graph with the number of shortest paths. First passage times through the subnetworks are in good agreement with those obtained in the full network, both for individual realizations and in distribution. Accurate estimates of first passage times are obtained with an order of magnitude reduction of CPU time and mesh size using the proposed method.

Introduction: energy and the subsurface.

This theme issue covers topics at the forefront of scientific research on energy and the subsurface, ranging from carbon dioxide (CO2) sequestration to the recovery of unconventional shale oil and gas resources through hydraulic fracturing. As such, the goal of this theme issue is to have an impact on the scientific community, broadly, by providing a self-contained collection of articles contributing to and reviewing the state-of-the-art of the field. This collection of articles could be used, for example, to set the next generation of research directions, while also being useful as a self-study guide for those interested in entering the field. Review articles are included on the topics of hydraulic fracturing as a multiscale problem, numerical modelling of hydraulic fracture propagation, the role of computational sciences in the upstream oil and gas industry and chemohydrodynamic patterns in porous media. Complementing the reviews is a set of original research papers covering growth models for branched hydraulic crack systems, fluid-driven crack propagation in elastic matrices, elastic and inelastic deformation of fluid-saturated rock, reaction front propagation in fracture matrices, the effects of rock mineralogy and pore structure on stress-dependent permeability of shales, topographic viscous fingering and plume dynamics in porous media convection.This article is part of the themed issue 'Energy and the subsurface'.

CO2 Accounting and Risk Analysis for CO2 Sequestration at Enhanced Oil Recovery Sites.

Using CO2 in enhanced oil recovery (CO2-EOR) is a promising technology for emissions management because CO2-EOR can dramatically reduce sequestration costs in the absence of emissions policies that include incentives for carbon capture and storage. This study develops a multiscale statistical framework to perform CO2 accounting and risk analysis in an EOR environment at the Farnsworth Unit (FWU), Texas. A set of geostatistical-based Monte Carlo simulations of CO2-oil/gas-water flow and transport in the Morrow formation are conducted for global sensitivity and statistical analysis of the major risk metrics: CO2/water injection/production rates, cumulative net CO2 storage, cumulative oil/gas productions, and CO2 breakthrough time. The median and confidence intervals are estimated for quantifying uncertainty ranges of the risk metrics. A response-surface-based economic model has been derived to calculate the CO2-EOR profitability for the FWU site with a current oil price, which suggests that approximately 31% of the 1000 realizations can be profitable. If government carbon-tax credits are available, or the oil price goes up or CO2 capture and operating expenses reduce, more realizations would be profitable. The results from this study provide valuable insights for understanding CO2 storage potential and the corresponding environmental and economic risks of commercial-scale CO2-sequestration in depleted reservoirs.