Directions of change in intrinsic case severity across successive SARS-CoV-2 variant waves have been inconsistent.

OBJECTIVES: To determine how the intrinsic severity of successively dominant SARS-CoV-2 variants changed over the course of the pandemic. METHODS: A retrospective cohort analysis in the NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde (NHS GGC) Health Board. All sequenced non-nosocomial adult COVID-19 cases in NHS GGC with relevant SARS-CoV-2 lineages (B.1.177/Alpha, Alpha/Delta, AY.4.2 Delta/non-AY.4.2 Delta, non-AY.4.2 Delta/Omicron, and BA.1 Omicron/BA.2 Omicron) during analysis periods were included. Outcome measures were hospital admission, ICU admission, or death within 28 days of positive COVID-19 test. We report the cumulative odds ratio; the ratio of the odds that an individual experiences a severity event of a given level vs all lower severity levels for the resident and the replacement variant after adjustment. RESULTS: After adjustment for covariates, the cumulative odds ratio was 1.51 (95% CI: 1.08-2.11) for Alpha versus B.1.177, 2.09 (95% CI: 1.42-3.08) for Delta versus Alpha, 0.99 (95% CI: 0.76-1.27) for AY.4.2 Delta versus non-AY.4.2 Delta, 0.49 (95% CI: 0.22-1.06) for Omicron versus non-AY.4.2 Delta, and 0.86 (95% CI: 0.68-1.09) for BA.2 Omicron versus BA.1 Omicron. CONCLUSIONS: The direction of change in intrinsic severity between successively emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants was inconsistent, reminding us that the intrinsic severity of future SARS-CoV-2 variants remains uncertain.

The SARS-CoV-2 Alpha variant was associated with increased clinical severity of COVID-19 in Scotland: A genomics-based retrospective cohort analysis.

OBJECTIVES: The SARS-CoV-2 Alpha variant was associated with increased transmission relative to other variants present at the time of its emergence and several studies have shown an association between Alpha variant infection and increased hospitalisation and 28-day mortality. However, none have addressed the impact on maximum severity of illness in the general population classified by the level of respiratory support required, or death. We aimed to do this. METHODS: In this retrospective multi-centre clinical cohort sub-study of the COG-UK consortium, 1475 samples from Scottish hospitalised and community cases collected between 1st November 2020 and 30th January 2021 were sequenced. We matched sequence data to clinical outcomes as the Alpha variant became dominant in Scotland and modelled the association between Alpha variant infection and severe disease using a 4-point scale of maximum severity by 28 days: 1. no respiratory support, 2. supplemental oxygen, 3. ventilation and 4. death. RESULTS: Our cumulative generalised linear mixed model analyses found evidence (cumulative odds ratio: 1.40, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.93) of a positive association between increased clinical severity and lineage (Alpha variant versus pre-Alpha variants). CONCLUSIONS: The Alpha variant was associated with more severe clinical disease in the Scottish population than co-circulating lineages.

First and second pregnancy outcomes in women with class III obesity: An observational cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: Class III obesity (BMI ≥ 40 kg/m2) during pregnancy predisposes mother and offspring to a range of adverse pregnancy complications and outcomes. Risk profiles vary between pregnancies and are affected by interpregnancy weight gain. We evaluated the risk of adverse outcomes in women with BMI ≥ 40 kg/m2 in first and second pregnancies, and the impact of interpregnancy weight change on this risk. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data were extracted for all women with BMI ≥ 40 kg/m2 at first antenatal visit, who completed antenatal and delivery care for first and second pregnancies in NHS Lothian between 1/1/2009-31/12/2018. Multiple pregnancies and recipients of bariatric surgery were excluded. RESULTS: 442 pregnancies among 221 women were included. In first pregnancy, median (interquartile range) weight was 117 kg (108.5-126.7), age 28 years (24-31) and BMI 42 kg/m2 (41.0-44.5), 14.4% had gestational diabetes (GDM), 11.3% had pregnancy-induced hypertension and 44.6% had a post-partum haemorrhage (PPH). 20.8% of babies were large for gestational age (LGA, ≥97% centile at birth). In second pregnancy, women were heavier with a median weight of 119.9 kg (109.0-130.0, p = 0.00) with 19.9% gaining over 10 kg. Women were more likely to develop GDM (21.6%, p = 0.02). Babies were heavier with 40% of babies LGA (p < 0.0001). Interpregnancy weight change had no significant impact on GDM, pregnancy induced hypertension, PPH, perinatal mortality or LGA. CONCLUSIONS: In a population of women with BMI ≥ 40 kg/m2, pregnancy complications are common and risk is higher in second pregnancy. The interpregnancy period is a critical time to engage women in health improvement and weight loss strategies to maximise outcomes for mother and offspring.

Forgotten Joint Score: Comparison between total and unicondylar knee arthroplasty.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study is to assess the Forgotten Joint Score (FJS) for total knee arthroplasty (TKA) and unicondylar knee arthroplasty (UKA) with both short- and long-term follow-up. METHODS: For a consecutive period of eight months, the FJS was sent to all patients who had undergone either a primary TKA or UKA either one, five or ten years previously at our institution. Patient demographics and operative details were recorded retrospectively. FJS were collected for three different TKA prosthesis and two different UKA prosthesis. RESULTS: A total of 588 FJS questionnaires were completed consisting of 482 TKA and 106 UKA procedures. The mean FJS for patients with TKA and UKA were 50.2 and 65.4 respectively (p < 0.001). Mean FJS for the ZUK were statistically superior to the Oxford UKA, 73.1 versus 60.1 (p = 0.020). For TKA mean FJS were statistically better at five compared to one year follow up, 53.8 versus 44.8 (p = 0.007). For UKA the mean FJJs were greatest at 10 year follow up (69.0), but the difference between scores at one (60.4) and five (68.4) years was not statistically significant (p = 0.243). CONCLUSION: This cross-sectional study has shown; superior FJSs for UKA compared to TKA and superior FJSs for a fixed bearing compared to a mobile bearing UKA and therefore supports the use of UKA opposed to TKA where the indications for UKA are satisfied. For TKA the FJS in the five-year post-operative group were significantly superior to those in the one-year post-operative group.

The effect of component alignment on clinical outcomes in fixed bearing unicompartmental knee arthroplasty.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study is to report component alignment in a series of ZUK fixed bearing unicompartmental knee arthroplasty (UKA) implants and compare this to clinical outcomes. METHODS: The radiographs, Knee Society Scores (KSS) and knee flexion of 223 medial UKAs were evaluated. The following alignment parameters were assessed; coronal and sagittalfemoral component angle (c-FCA and s-FCA), coronal and sagittal tibia component angle (c-TCA and s-TCA)and the coronal tibiofemoralangle (c-TFA). Each alignment parameter was grouped at consecutive 2.5° intervals, mean KSS and knee flexion was then compared between the interval groups. RESULTS: 96.4% of femoral components were between 7.5° of varus and valgus and 95.1% between 7.5° extension and 5° flexion. 89.6% of tibial components were between 7.5° of varus and 2.5° valgus and 97.3% between 2.5° and 15° flexion. There was no significant difference between the KSS or knee flexion between any of the incremental groups of component alignment. Mean c-TFA was 0.2 ± 3.0°, 92.4% were between -5° (varus) and 5° (valgus). KSS were significantly greater for two of the increments with slightly more varus. Linear regression analysis showed there was very weak correlation (R2 = 0.1933) between c-TFA and c-TCA. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study show that fixed bearing UKA components are forgiving to accommodate some variation in tibial and femoral component position without effecting clinical outcome scores or knee flexion. Limb alignment matters more than component position and knees with slight varus tibiofemoral alignment have better clinical scores than those with valgus.

Interventions to reduce preterm birth and stillbirth, and improve outcomes for babies born preterm in low- and middle-income countries: A systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Reducing preterm birth and stillbirth and improving outcomes for babies born too soon is essential to reduce under-5 mortality globally. In the context of a rapidly evolving evidence base and problems with extrapolating efficacy data from high- to low-income settings, an assessment of the evidence for maternal and newborn interventions specific to low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) is required. METHODS: A systematic review of the literature was done. We included all studies performed in LMICs since the Every Newborn Action Plan, between 2013 - 2018, which reported on interventions where the outcome assessed was reduction in preterm birth or stillbirth incidence and/or a reduction in preterm infant neonatal mortality. Evidence was categorised according to maternal or neonatal intervention groups and a narrative synthesis conducted. RESULTS: 179 studies (147 primary evidence studies and 32 systematic reviews) were identified in 82 LMICs. 81 studies reported on maternal interventions and 98 reported on neonatal interventions. Interventions in pregnant mothers which resulted in significant reductions in preterm birth and stillbirth were (i) multiple micronutrient supplementation and (ii) enhanced quality of antenatal care. Routine antenatal ultrasound in LMICs increased identification of fetal antenatal conditions but did not reduce stillbirth or preterm birth due to the absence of services to manage these diagnoses. Interventions in pre-term neonates which improved their survival included (i) feeding support including probiotics and (ii) thermal regulation. Improved provision of neonatal resuscitation did not improve pre-term mortality rates, highlighting the importance of post-resuscitation care. Community mobilisation, for example through community education packages, was found to be an effective way of delivering interventions. CONCLUSIONS: Evidence supports the implementation of several low-cost interventions with the potential to deliver reductions in preterm birth and stillbirth and improve outcomes for preterm babies in LMICs. These, however, must be complemented by overall health systems strengthening to be effective. Quality improvement methodology and learning health systems approaches can provide important means of understanding and tackling implementation challenges within local contexts. Further pragmatic efficacy trials of interventions in LMICs are essential, particularly for interventions not previously tested in these contexts.

Pregnancy and COVID-19.

There are many unknowns for pregnant women during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Clinical experience of pregnancies complicated with infection by other coronaviruses e.g., Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome, has led to pregnant woman being considered potentially vulnerable to severe SARS-CoV-2 infection. Physiological changes during pregnancy have a significant impact on the immune system, respiratory system, cardiovascular function, and coagulation. These may have positive or negative effects on COVID-19 disease progression. The impact of SARS-CoV-2 in pregnancy remains to be determined, and a concerted, global effort is required to determine the effects on implantation, fetal growth and development, labor, and neonatal health. Asymptomatic infection presents a further challenge regarding service provision, prevention, and management. Besides the direct impacts of the disease, a plethora of indirect consequences of the pandemic adversely affect maternal health, including reduced access to reproductive health services, increased mental health strain, and increased socioeconomic deprivation. In this review, we explore the current knowledge of COVID-19 in pregnancy and highlight areas for further research to minimize its impact for women and their children.

Genomic epidemiology reveals multiple introductions of SARS-CoV-2 from mainland Europe into Scotland.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was first diagnosed in Scotland on 1 March 2020. During the first month of the outbreak, 2,641 cases of COVID-19 led to 1,832 hospital admissions, 207 intensive care admissions and 126 deaths. We aimed to identify the source and number of introductions of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) into Scotland using a combined phylogenetic and epidemiological approach. Sequencing of 1,314 SARS-CoV-2 viral genomes from available patient samples enabled us to estimate that SARS-CoV-2 was introduced to Scotland on at least 283 occasions during February and March 2020. Epidemiological analysis confirmed that early introductions of SARS-CoV-2 originated from mainland Europe (the majority from Italy and Spain). We identified subsequent early outbreaks in the community, within healthcare facilities and at an international conference. Community transmission occurred after 2 March, 3 weeks before control measures were introduced. Earlier travel restrictions or quarantine measures, both locally and internationally, would have reduced the number of COVID-19 cases in Scotland. The risk of multiple reintroduction events in future waves of infection remains high in the absence of population immunity.

Informing prevention of stillbirth and preterm birth in Malawi: development of a minimum dataset for health facilities participating in the DIPLOMATIC collaboration.

OBJECTIVE: The global research group, DIPLOMATIC (Using eviDence, Implementation science, and a clinical trial PLatform to Optimise MATernal and newborn health in low Income Countries), aims to reduce stillbirths and preterm births and optimise outcomes for babies born preterm. Minimum datasets for routine data collection in healthcare facilities participating in DIPLOMATIC (initially in Malawi) were designed to assist understanding of baseline maternal and neonatal care processes and outcomes, and facilitate evaluation of improvement interventions and pragmatic clinical trials. DESIGN: Published and grey literature was reviewed alongside extensive in-country consultation to define relevant clinical best practice guidance, and the existing local data and reporting infrastructure, to identify requirements for the minimum datasets. Data elements were subjected to iterative rounds of consultation with topic experts in Malawi and Scotland, the relevant Malawian professional bodies and the Ministry of Health in Malawi to ensure relevance, validity and feasibility. SETTING: Antenatal, maternity and specialist neonatal care in Malawi. RESULTS: The resulting three minimum datasets cover the maternal and neonatal healthcare journey for antenatal, maternity and specialist neonatal care, with provision for effective linkage of records for mother/baby pairs. They can facilitate consistent, precise recording of relevant outcomes (stillbirths, preterm births, neonatal deaths), risk factors and key care processes. CONCLUSIONS: Poor quality routine data on care processes and outcomes constrain healthcare system improvement. The datasets developed for implementation in DIPLOMATIC partner facilities reflect, and hence support delivery of, internationally agreed best practice for maternal and newborn care in low-income settings. Informed by extensive consultation, they are designed to integrate with existing local data infrastructure and reporting as well as meeting research data needs. This work provides a transferable example of strengthening data infrastructure to underpin a learning healthcare system approach in low-income settings.DIPLOMATIC is funded by the UK National Institute for Health Research.

An evaluation of the benefits and harms of antenatal corticosteroid treatment for women at risk of imminent preterm birth or prior to elective Caesarean-section: Study protocol for an individual participant data meta-analysis.

Background: Antenatal corticosteroid treatment (ACT) has been widely accepted as a safe, beneficial treatment which improves outcomes following preterm birth. It has been shown to reduce respiratory distress syndrome and neonatal mortality and is commonly used in threatened or planned preterm delivery, as well as prior to elective Caesarean-section at term. There are some concerns however, that in some cases, ACT is used in patients where clinical benefit has not been established, or may potentially increase harm. Many women who receive ACT do not deliver preterm and the long-term consequences of ACT treatment are unclear. This study aims to evaluate the benefits and harms of ACT using latest trial evidence to allow refinement of current practice. Methods: This study will compare ACT with placebo or non-treatment. Inclusion criteria are: Randomised Controlled Trials (RCT) comparing ACT vs. no ACT (with or without placebo) in all settings. Exclusion criteria are: non-randomised or quasi-randomised studies and studies comparing single vs. multiple courses of ACT. Main outcomes are to evaluate, for women at risk of preterm birth or undergoing planned Caesarean- section, the benefits and harms of ACT, on maternal, fetal, newborn, and long-term offspring health outcomes. The individual participant data (IPD) of identified RCTs will be collected and consecutively synthesised using meta-analysis with both a one-stage model where all IPD is analysed together and a two-stage model where treatment effect estimates are calculated for each trial individually first and thereafter pooled in a meta-analysis. Sub-group analysis will be performed to identify heterogeneous effects of ACT across predefined risk groups. Discussion: Co-opt is the Consortium for the Study of Pregnancy Treatments and aims to complete a robust evaluation of the benefits and harms of ACT. This IPD meta-analysis will contribute to this by allowing detailed interrogation of existing trial datasets. PROSPERO registration: CRD42020167312 (03/02/2020).

Sensitivity of RT-PCR testing of upper respiratory tract samples for SARS-CoV-2 in hospitalised patients: a retrospective cohort study.

Background: This study aimed to determine the sensitivity and specificity of reverse transcription PCR (RT-PCR) testing of upper respiratory tract (URT) samples from hospitalised patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), compared to the gold standard of a clinical diagnosis. Methods: All URT RT-PCR testing for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) in NHS Lothian, Scotland, United Kingdom between the 7 th of February and 19 th April 2020 (inclusive) was reviewed, and hospitalised patients were identified. All URT RT-PCR tests were analysed for each patient to determine the sequence of negative and positive results. For those who were tested twice or more but never received a positive result, case records were reviewed, and a clinical diagnosis of COVID-19 allocated based on clinical features, discharge diagnosis, and radiology and haematology results. For those who had a negative RT-PCR test but a clinical diagnosis of COVID-19, respiratory samples were retested using a multiplex respiratory panel, a second SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR assay, and a human RNase P control. Results: Compared to the gold standard of a clinical diagnosis of COVID-19, the sensitivity of a single upper respiratory tract RT-PCR for COVID-19 was 82.2% (95% confidence interval 79.0-85.1%).   The sensitivity of two upper respiratory tract RT-PCR tests increased sensitivity to 90.6% (CI 88.0-92.7%). A further 2.2% and 0.9% of patients who received a clinical diagnosis of COVID-19 were positive on a third and fourth test; this may be an underestimate of the value of further testing as the majority of patients 93.0% (2999/3226) only had one or two URT RT-PCR tests. Conclusions: The sensitivity of a single RT-PCR test of URT samples in hospitalised patients is 82.2%. Sensitivity increases to 90.6% when patients are tested twice.  A proportion of cases with clinically defined COVID-19 never test positive on URT RT-PCR despite repeat testing.

The global burden of sickle cell disease in children under five years of age: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Sickle cell disease (SCD) is a common haematological disorder, affecting millions of people worldwide. It is most prevalent in malarial endemic areas in the tropics where outcomes are often poor due to resource constraints, resulting in most children dying before reaching adulthood. As increasing progress is made towards reducing under 5 mortality from infectious causes, non-communicable diseases (NCDs) including SCD have risen to the forefront of the global health agenda. Despite this, the global mortality burden of SCD remains poorly understood. This study aimed to estimate the incidence and mortality of SCD in children under 5 years of age in order to inform policy and develop sustainable strategies to improve outcomes. METHODOLOGY: We performed a systematic literature search of Medline, EMBASE, Journals@Ovid, and Web of Science for studies on the incidence and mortality of SCD in children under 5, with search dates set from January 1980 and July 2017. We conducted random effects meta-analysis to obtain pooled meta-estimates of birth prevalence and mortality rates globally, and for each World Health Organization (WHO) region. RESULTS: 67 papers were found with relevant data. 52 contained data on incidence and prevalence and 15 contained data on mortality. The overall pooled estimate of mortality from the limited data available was 0.64 per 100 years of child observation (95% CI = 0.28-1.00) with the highest rate seen in Africa 7.3 (95% CI = 4.03-10.57). The global meta-estimate for the birth prevalence of homozygous sickle cell disease was 112 per 100 000 live births (95% CI = 101-123) with a birth prevalence in Africa of 1125 per 100 000 (95% CI = 680.43-1570.54) compared with 43.12 per 100 000 (95% CI = 30.31-55.92) in Europe. CONCLUSION: There were a number of limitations in the depth and breadth of available data however it is clear that both the highest prevalence and highest mortality of SCD is in Africa. In order to address this burden, there is a need for national comprehensive newborn screening to identify patients, and the development of holistic SCD care programmes to provide therapeutics and education for families and children with SCD. This targeted funding should form part of a broader increased global focus on NCDs in childhood.

Global birth prevalence and mortality from inborn errors of metabolism: a systematic analysis of the evidence.

BACKGROUND: Inborn errors of metabolism (IEM) are a group of over 500 heterogeneous disorders resulting from a defect in functioning of an intermediate metabolic pathway. Individually rare, their cumulative incidence is thought to be high, but it has not yet been estimated globally. Although outcomes can often be good if recognised early, IEM carry a high fatality rate if not diagnosed. As a result, IEM may contribute significantly to the burden of non-communicable childhood morbidity. METHODS: We conducted a systematic literature review of birth prevalence and case fatality of IEM globally, with search dates set from 1980 to 2017. Using random-effects meta-analysis, we estimated birth prevalence of separate classes of IEM and all-cause IEM, split by geographical region. We also estimated levels of parental consanguinity in IEM cases and global case fatality rates and resultant child deaths from all-cause IEM. FINDINGS: 49 studies met our selection criteria. We estimate the global birth prevalence of all-cause IEM to be 50.9 per 100 000 live births (95% confidence intervals (CI) = 43.4-58.4). Regional pooled birth prevalence rates showed the highest rates of IEM to be in the Eastern Mediterranean region (75.7 per 100 000 live births, 95% CI = 50.0-101.4), correlating with a higher observed rate of parental consanguinity in studies from this area. We estimate case fatality rates to be 33% or higher in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), resulting in a minimum of 23 529 deaths from IEM per year globally (95% CI = 20 382-27 427), accounting for 0.4% of all child deaths worldwide. CONCLUSIONS: IEM represent a significant cause of global child morbidity and mortality, comprising a notable proportion of child deaths currently not delineated in global modelling efforts. Our data highlight the need for policy focus on enhanced laboratory capacity for screening and diagnosis, community interventions to tackle parental consanguinity, and increased awareness and knowledge regarding management of IEM, particularly in LMICs.

Risk factors for respiratory syncytial virus associated with acute lower respiratory infection in children under five years: Systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the most common pathogen identified in young children with acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) as well as an important cause of hospital admission. The high incidence of RSV infection and its potential severe outcome make it important to identify and prioritise children who are at higher risk of developing RSV-associated ALRI. We aimed to identify risk factors for RSV-associated ALRI in young children. METHODS: We carried out a systematic literature review across 4 databases and obtained unpublished studies from RSV Global Epidemiology Network (RSV GEN) collaborators. Quality of all eligible studies was assessed according to modified GRADE criteria. We conducted meta-analyses to estimate odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals (CI) for individual risk factors. RESULTS: We identified 20 studies (3 were unpublished data) with "good quality" that investigated 18 risk factors for RSV-associated ALRI in children younger than five years old. Among them, 8 risk factors were significantly associated with RSV-associated ALRI. The meta-estimates of their odds ratio (ORs) with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) are prematurity 1.96 (95% CI 1.44-2.67), low birth weight 1.91 (95% CI 1.45-2.53), being male 1.23 (95% CI 1.13-1.33), having siblings 1.60 (95% CI 1.32-1.95), maternal smoking 1.36 (95% CI 1.24-1.50), history of atopy 1.47 (95% CI 1.16-1.87), no breastfeeding 2.24 (95% CI 1.56-3.20) and crowding 1.94 (95% CI 1.29-2.93). Although there were insufficient studies available to generate a meta-estimate for HIV, all articles (irrespective of quality scores) reported significant associations between HIV and RSV-associated ALRI. CONCLUSIONS: This study presents a comprehensive report of the strength of association between various socio-demographic risk factors and RSV-associated ALRI in young children. Some of these amenable risk factors are similar to those that have been identified for (all cause) ALRI and thus, in addition to the future impact of novel RSV vaccines, national action against ALRI risk factors as part of national control programmes can be expected to reduce burden of disease from RSV. Further research which identifies, accesses and analyses additional unpublished RSV data sets could further improve the precision of these estimates.